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Interest Rates Fall, but Central Banks Are No Longer in Lock Step

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Officials in some countries started cutting rates last year, but others, including those in Europe and the United States, have taken a more cautious approach.Two years ago, central banks around the world were engaged in a battle against high inflation that resulted in an aggressive and synchronized jump in interest rates. Now, many policymakers are reversing course — but in a less coordinated way as price increases slow at different paces in various countries.Central bankers in some emerging markets began cutting rates last year. European officials started a slow and cautious easing of interest rates just a few months ago. The biggest outlier had been the Federal Reserve, which had kept rates high for more than a year and throughout the summer. On Wednesday, it joined the crowd and cut rates — in a big way — for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.“A few months ago, we were still in the space of American exceptionalism,” said Katharine Neiss, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, an asset manager. There was the expectation that the resilience of the U.S. economy would lead to higher rates for longer, she said. “That was creating a lot of stresses and strains for the rest of the world,” she added.If the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday can ensure a so-called soft landing for the U.S. economy, where inflation is brought down without a severe recession, then that is “really good news for the rest of the world,” Ms. Neiss said. It also eases global financial conditions and reduces pressure on currencies that were taking a hit from the dollar’s strength.Now, the dominant theme around the world is central banks lowering interest rates as inflation slows, falling within sight of their targets, and economic growth weakens. Still, policymakers have been cautious about moving too quickly and reigniting inflationary pressures.The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday after cutting just once last month.Central banks in Norway and Sweden are also expected to hold rates at their meetings later in September, emphasizing their gradual approach. Among emerging markets, the South African central bank cut rates for the first time in four years on Thursday.Still, there are global outliers. Japan belatedly responded to rising inflation by raising rates in July. Investors suggest that the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise rates again in the near future. Nigeria has been raising rates this year as inflation has jumped and, late on Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank raised rates amid concerns that faster economic growth could be inflationary. More

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    Why Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Fix a Global Housing Affordability Crisis

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    Central bankers are lowering borrowing costs, but that won’t be a cure-all for a widespread lack of affordable housing.To Moira Gallagher, 38, buying a house in Anchorage would be a step toward financial stability for her growing family. But even with a six-figure household income and stable jobs, she and her husband have struggled to make a purchase.High mortgage rates, limited housing supply and historically poor affordability have kept buying a home stubbornly out of reach for Ms. Gallagher, an economic researcher who is expecting her third child. Three- or four-bedroom homes in good school districts are both hard to come by and prohibitively expensive.“It makes it hard to feel secure,” she said. “It affects everything.”From Anchorage to Amsterdam, many developed and even emerging economies are confronting a similar problem: Housing supply is failing to meet demand, helping to push home prices to levels that are out of reach even for middle-income families.Affordability problems have been exacerbated by high central bank interest rates, which officials across the globe have been using to tackle rapid inflation. Those policy rates trickle through financial markets to elevate mortgage rates — making it even more expensive for borrowers to buy a home and for builders to finance construction for new houses and apartments.The second part of that equation is now poised to change. Central banks in many economies are lowering interest rates or preparing to do so imminently. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are already cutting borrowing costs, and the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled last week that it would start reductions in September.But those rate cuts are unlikely to be a panacea for housing affordability.While the shift in central bank stance is already translating into somewhat lower mortgage rates in many countries, borrowing costs are not expected to fall back to the levels that prevailed during the 2010s. Several economists said 30-year mortgage rates in the United States, for instance, could end up in the 5.5 to 6 percent range, down from their 7.5 percent peak last year but still up notably from the 4 percent that was normal before the pandemic.Home Prices Jump in Developed WorldHow inflation-adjusted home prices are shaping up across advanced economies.

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    O.E.C.D. house price indexes, 2015=100
    Data reflects first quarter of each year.Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentBy The New York TimesWhat Share of Income Does a Typical Home Cost? Across metro areas in the United States, the cost of owning a typical home has been rising as a share of the local median income.

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    Share of income that would go to owning standard home
    Source: The Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability MonitorBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Leading Soft Landing for Global Economy

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    Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out.The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.But the details differ from place to place. Forecasters from the Federal Reserve to the International Monetary Fund have been most surprised at the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy, while growth in places like the United Kingdom and Germany remains more lackluster. The question is why America has pulled out ahead of other developed economies in the pack.The I.M.F. said this week that it expected the United States to grow 2.1 percent, a sharp upgrade from the previous estimate of 1.5 percent. Other major advanced economies are also expected to grow, albeit less quickly. The euro area is expected to notch out 0.9 percent growth, as is Japan, and the United Kingdom is forecast to expand by 0.6 percent. “This is a good situation, let’s be honest, this is a good economy,” Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said at a news conference this week — two of nearly 20 times that he called the data “good” during his remarks.Evidence of that strength continued on Friday, when a blockbuster jobs report showed that employers had added 353,000 jobs in January and wages grew at a rapid clip.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Climate Protesters Get in Fed’s Face as Policy Clash Grows Louder

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    Jerome H. Powell, the central bank’s chair, has been interrupted recently by a climate group that thinks disruption will win the day.A video of security officers wrestling a protester to the floor in the lobby of the Jackson Lake Lodge in Wyoming, outside the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched annual conference, clocked more than a million views.A protest that disrupted a speech by Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, at the Economic Club of New York this fall generated extensive coverage. And when the activists showed up again at Mr. Powell’s speech at the International Monetary Fund in early November, they seemed to get under his skin: The central bank’s usually staid leader was caught on a hot mic using a profanity as he told someone to close the door.All three upheavals were caused by the same group, Climate Defiance, which a now-30-year-old activist named Michael Greenberg founded in the spring. Mr. Greenberg had long worked in traditional climate advocacy, but he decided that something louder was needed to spur change at institutions like the Fed.“I realized there was a big need for disruptive direct action,” he explained in an interview. “It just gets so, so, so, so, so much more attention.”The small but noisy band of protesters dogging the Fed chair is also spotlighting a problem that the central bank has long grappled with: precisely what role it should play in the world’s transition to green energy.Climate-focused groups often argue that as a regulator of the nation’s largest banks, the Fed should play a major role in preparing the financial system for the damaging effects of climate change. Some want it to more overtly discourage bank lending to fossil fuel companies. Mr. Greenberg, for instance, said he would like the Fed to use regulation to make lending to oil and gas companies essentially cost-prohibitive.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Fragile Global Economy Faces New Crisis in Israel-Gaza War

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    A war in the Middle East could complicate efforts to contain inflation at a time when world output is “limping along.”The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday that the pace of the global economic recovery is slowing, a warning that came as a new war in the Middle East threatened to upend a world economy already reeling from several years of overlapping crises.The eruption of fighting between Israel and Hamas over the weekend, which could sow disruption across the region, reflects how challenging it has become to shield economies from increasingly frequent and unpredictable global shocks. The conflict has cast a cloud over a gathering of top economic policymakers in Morocco for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank.Officials who planned to grapple with the lingering economic effects of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine now face a new crisis.“Economies are at a delicate state,” Ajay Banga, the World Bank president, said in an interview on the sidelines of the annual meetings. “Having war is really not helpful for central banks who are finally trying to find their way to a soft landing,” he said. Mr. Banga was referring to efforts by policymakers in the West to try and cool rapid inflation without triggering a recession.Mr. Banga said that so far, the impact of the Middle East attacks on the world’s economy is more limited than the war in Ukraine. That conflict initially sent oil and food prices soaring, roiling global markets given Russia’s role as a top energy producer and Ukraine’s status as a major exporter of grain and fertilizer.“But if this were to spread in any way then it becomes dangerous,” Mr. Banga added, saying such a development would result in “a crisis of unimaginable proportion.”Oil markets are already jittery. Lucrezia Reichlin, a professor at the London Business School and a former director general of research at the European Central Bank, said, “the main question is what’s going to happen to energy prices.”Ms. Reichlin is concerned that another spike in oil prices would pressure the Federal Reserve and other central banks to further push up interest rates, which she said have risen too far too fast.As far as energy prices, Ms. Reichlin said, “we have two fronts, Russia and now the Middle East.”Smoke rising from bombings of Gaza City and its northern borders by Israeli planes.Samar Abu Elouf for The New York Times Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said it’s too early to assess whether the recent jump in oil prices would be sustained. If they were, he said, research shows that a 10 percent increase in oil prices would weigh down the global economy, reducing output by 0.15 percent and increasing inflation by 0.4 percent next year. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. underscored the fragility of the recovery. It maintained its global growth outlook for this year at 3 percent and slightly lowered its forecast for 2024 to 2.9 percent. Although the I.M.F. upgraded its projection for output in the United States for this year, it downgraded the euro area and China while warning that distress in that nation’s real estate sector is worsening.“We see a global economy that is limping along, and it’s not quite sprinting yet,” Mr. Gourinchas said. In the medium term, “the picture is darker,” he added, citing a series of risks including the likelihood of more large natural disasters caused by climate change.Europe’s economy, in particular, is caught in the middle of growing global tensions. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, European governments have frantically scrambled to free themselves from an over-dependence on Russian natural gas.They have largely succeeded by turning, in part, to suppliers in the Middle East.Over the weekend, the European Union swiftly expressed solidarity with Israel and condemned the surprise attack from Hamas, which controls Gaza.Some oil suppliers may take a different view. Algeria, for example, which has increased its exports of natural gas to Italy, criticized Israel for responding with airstrikes on Gaza.Even before the weekend’s events, the energy transition had taken a toll on European economies. In the 20 countries that use the euro, the Fund predicts that growth will slow to just 0.7 percent this year from 3.3 percent in 2022. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is expected to contract by 0.5 percent.High interest rates, persistent inflation and the aftershocks of spiraling energy prices are also expected to slow growth in Britain to 0.5 percent this year from 4.1 percent in 2022.Sub-Saharan Africa is also caught in the slowdown. Growth is projected to shrink this year by 3.3 percent, although next year’s outlook is brighter, when growth is forecast to be 4 percent.Staggering debt looms over many of these nations. The average debt now amounts to 60 percent of the region’s total output — double what it was a decade ago. Higher interest rates have contributed to soaring repayment costs.This next-generation of sovereign debt crises is playing out in a world that is coming to terms with a reappraisal of global supply chains in addition to growing geopolitical rivalries. Added to the complexities are estimates that within the next decade, trillions of dollars in new financing will be needed to mitigate devastating climate change in developing countries.One of the biggest questions facing policymakers is what impact China’s sluggish economy will have on the rest of the world. The I.M.F. has lowered its growth outlook for China twice this year and said on Tuesday that consumer confidence there is “subdued” and that industrial production is weakening. It warned that countries that are part of the Asian industrial supply chain could be exposed to this loss of momentum.In an interview on her flight to the meetings, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said that she believes China has the tools to address a “complex set of economic challenges” and that she does not expect its slowdown to weigh on the U.S. economy.“I think they face significant challenges that they have to address,” Ms. Yellen said. “I haven’t seen and don’t expect a spillover onto us.” More

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    Eurozone Inflation Holds Steady at 5.3 Percent

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    The NewsConsumer prices in the eurozone rose 5.3 percent in August compared with a year earlier, sticking at the same pace as the previous month and defying economists’ expectations for a slowdown, according to an initial estimate by the statistics agency of the European Union.While inflation has slowed materially from its peak of above 10 percent in October last year, there are signs that some inflationary pressures are persistent, even as bloc’s economy weakens. Food inflation was again the largest contributor to the headline rate, rising 9.8 percent from a year earlier on average across the 20 countries that use the euro currency.Inflation was also given some upward momentum by a jump in energy costs, which rose 3.2 percent in August from the previous month.Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, and is used as a gauge of domestic price pressures, slowed to 5.3 percent, from 5.5 percent in July.By Country: Higher energy prices add to inflation pressures in the region’s largest economies.In some of the eurozone’s largest economies, rebounding energy prices offset slowing food inflation. The annual rate of inflation accelerated to 5.7 percent in France and to 2.4 percent in Spain this month.In Spain, inflation had fallen below 2 percent, the European Central Bank’s target, in June, but has since climbed back above it.Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, was 6.4 percent in August, slowing only slightly from the previous month, as household energy and motor fuel costs increased.What’s Next: The European Central Bank weighs another rate increase.The acceleration of inflation in some of the region’s largest economies arrives two weeks before the European Central Bank’s next policy meeting. As analysts parse the data, the question is whether the reports are troubling enough to persuade policymakers to raise interest rates again at their mid-September meeting. The central bank has raised rates nine consecutive times, by 4.25 percentage points in about a year, and there is growing evidence that higher rates are restraining the economy, particularly as lending declines.Last month, Christine Lagarde, the president of the central bank, said she and her colleagues had “an open mind” about the decision in September and subsequent meetings. Policymakers are trying to strike a balance between raising rates enough to stamp out high inflation, while not causing unnecessary economic pain.“We might hike, and we might hold,” she said. “And what is decided in September is not definitive; it may vary from one meeting to the other.”On Thursday, before the eurozone data was released, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the bank’s executive board, said that “underlying price pressures remain stubbornly high, with domestic factors now being the main drivers of inflation in the euro area.” This meant a “sufficiently restrictive” policy stance was needed to return inflation to the bank’s 2 percent target “in a timely manner,” she added. More

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    How Inflation and Interest Rates Vary Around the World

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    Prices are still rising too fast for comfort in many major economies, and policymakers across the globe are trying to wrestle them under control.From Melbourne to Manchester to Miami, people are struggling under the weight of hefty price increases for the things they buy each day.The worst spike in inflation that many advanced economies have seen in decades underscores the global forces driving prices higher, namely the disruptions set in motion by the coronavirus pandemic.The stakes are high for policymakers around the world, who are facing similar problems. To try to get inflation under control, central bankers have rapidly lifted interest rates, trying to slow their economies in hopes of cooling prices. More

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    At the Front Lines of the Inflation Fight, Uncertainty Reigns

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    Central bankers and economists gathered this week and, amid concerns about persistent inflation, wondered about all the things they still don’t know.When prices started to take off in multiple countries around the world about two years ago, the word most often associated with inflation was “transitory.” Today, the word is “persistence.”That was uttered repeatedly at the 10th annual conference of the European Central Bank this week in Sintra, Portugal.“It’s been surprising that inflation has been this persistent,” Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said.“We have to be as persistent as inflation is persistent,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said.The latest inflation data in Britain “showed clear signs of persistence,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said.Policymakers from around the world gathered alongside academics and analysts to discuss monetary policy as they try to force inflation down. Collectively, they sent a single message: Interest rates will be high for awhile.Even though inflation is slowing, domestic price pressures remain strong in the United States and Europe. On Friday, data showed the inflation in the eurozone slowed to 5.5 percent, but core inflation, a measure of domestic price increases, rose. The challenge for policymakers is how to meet their targets of 2 percent inflation, without overdoing it and pushing their economies into recessions.It’s hard to judge when a turning point has been reached and policymakers have done enough, said Clare Lombardelli, the chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and former chief economic adviser in the British Treasury. “We don’t yet know. We’re still seeing core inflation rising.” The tone of the conference was set on Monday night by Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. In her speech, she said there was an “uncomfortable truth” that policymakers needed to hear. “Inflation is taking too long to get back to target.”Gita Gopinath, of the International Monetary Fund, said inflation was “taking too long” to come back down.Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersAnd so, she said, interest rates should be at levels that restrict the economy until core inflation is on a downward path. But Ms. Gopinath had another unsettling message to share: The world will probably face more shocks, more frequently.“There is a substantial risk that the more volatile supply shocks of the pandemic era will persist,” she said. Countries cutting global supply chains to shift production home or to existing trade partners would raise production costs. And they would be more vulnerable to future shocks because their concentrated production would give them less flexibility.The conversations in Sintra kept coming back to all the things economists don’t know, and the list was long: Inflation expectations are hard to decipher; energy markets are opaque; the speed that monetary policy affects the economy seems to be slowing; and there’s little guidance on how people and companies will react to large successive economic shocks.There were also plenty of mea culpas about the inaccuracy of past inflation forecasts.“Our understanding of inflation expectations is not a precise one,” Mr. Powell said. “The longer inflation remains high, the more risk there is that inflation will become entrenched in the economy. So the passage of time is not our friend here.”Meanwhile, there are signs that the impact of high interest rates will take longer to be felt in the economy than they used to. In Britain, the vast majority of mortgages have rates that are fixed for short periods and so reset every two or five years. A decade ago, it was more common to have mortgages that fluctuated with interest rates, so homeowners felt the impact of higher interest rates instantly. Because of this change, “history isn’t going to be a great guide,” Mr. Bailey said.Another poor guide has been prices in energy markets. The price of wholesale energy has been the driving force behind headline inflation rates, but rapid price changes have helped make inflation forecasts inaccurate. A panel session on energy markets reinforced economists’ concerns about how inadequately informed they are on something that is heavily influencing inflation, because of a lack of transparency in the industry. A chart on the mega-profits of commodity-trading houses last year left many in the room wide-eyed.A shopping district in central London. “Our understanding of inflation expectations is not a precise one,” said Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve.Sam Bush for The New York TimesEconomists have been writing new economic models, trying to respond quickly to the fact that central banks have consistently underestimated inflation. But to some extent the damage has already been done, and among some policymakers there is a growing lack of trust in the forecasts. The fact that central bankers in the eurozone have agreed to be “data dependent” — making policy decisions based on the data available at each meeting, and not take predetermined actions — shows that “we don’t trust models enough now to base our decision, at least mostly, on the models,” said Pierre Wunsch, a member of the E.C.B.’s Governing Council and the head of Belgium’s central bank. “And that’s because we have been surprised for a year and a half.”Given all that central bankers do not know, the dominant mood at the conference was the need for a tough stance on inflation, with higher interest rates for longer. But not everyone agreed.Some argued that past rate increases would be enough to bring down inflation, and further increases would inflict unnecessary pain on businesses and households. But central bankers might feel compelled to act more aggressively to ward off attacks on their reputation and credibility, a vocal minority argued.“The odds are that they have already done too much,” said Erik Nielsen, an economist at UniCredit, said of the European Central Bank. This is probably happening because of the diminishing faith in forecasts, he said, which is putting the focus on past inflation data.“That’s like driving a car and somebody painted your front screen so you can’t look forward,” he said. “You can only look through the back window to see what inflation was last month. That probably ends with you in the ditch.” More

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    As the Fed Meets, It Shares an Inflation Problem With the World

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    Inflation is stubborn across a range of economies. Given its staying power, investors expect the Fed to pause rate moves only temporarily.The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to stop raising interest rates for the first time in 11 policy meetings. But investors are betting that the pause will not last.The pattern of stopping and then restarting rate increases is becoming well-established around the world. The Reserve Bank of Australia paused its own campaign earlier this year only to raise rates again twice, including last week. The Bank of Canada had left rates unchanged for four months before raising them again in a surprise move on June 7.That’s because inflation is proving stubborn. Across a range of economies, from Melbourne to Munich to Miami, it has been hard to stamp out. Many central banks are contending with price increases that are only moderating slowly, propped up by higher service costs, which include things like concert tickets, rent and hotel rooms.“Everyone has a kind of similar problem,” said William English, a former Fed staff member who is now at Yale University, noting that policymakers in Britain and the eurozone are facing inflation problems that have a lot in common with the Fed’s. The European Central Bank’s policymakers also meet this week, and they are expected to continue raising rates.Policy may be tougher to predict in the months ahead as officials try to judge whether interest rates are high enough to ensure that their economies slow enough to restrain price increases.“We’re into the period where we’re kind of groping a bit,” Mr. English said. “It’s going to be a period of considerable uncertainty.”

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    Central bank policy rates
    Source: FactSetBy The New York TimesThe Fed has already raised rates sharply over the past 15 months, to just above 5 percent as of May, and those higher interest rates are trickling through the economy. In recent speeches, Fed officials have hinted that they could soon “skip” a rate increase to give themselves time to assess the effects of their changes so far, and investors are betting that Fed officials will hold policy steady at their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday before lifting rates one more time in July. But those forecasts are uncertain: Traders typically have a fairly clear idea of what the Fed might do heading into its meetings, but this time markets see a small but real chance that U.S. central bankers will raise rates this week.The doubt partly owes to the fact that the Fed will receive an important inflation reading, the Consumer Price Index, on Tuesday. But it also reflects what a fraught time this is for economic policy in the United States and around the world.This is the worst inflationary episode in America and many of its peer economies since the 1970s and 1980s, so it has been a long time since the world’s policymakers contended with the issue. And while inflation has been fading, it has also demonstrated staying power.In the United States and elsewhere, inflation started in goods like cars and furniture but has moved into services like airfares, education and haircuts. That’s concerning because price increases for services tend to be driven by broad economic trends rather than one-off supply problems, and can be more lasting.“Services price inflation is proving persistent here and overseas,” Philip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said in a speech explaining the central bank’s surprise move last week.Fed officials have been fretting that today’s price increases could prove sticky.Wage gains remain fairly rapid, which could limit how quickly prices fall as employers try to cover climbing labor bills. And while slowing rent increases should cool overall inflation, some economists have questioned whether that will be enough to steadily lower inflation.“A rebound in the housing market is raising questions about how sustained those lower rent increases will be,” Christopher Waller, a Fed governor who often favors higher interest rates, said in a recent speech.At the same time, central bankers want to avoid plunging the economy into a recession that is more painful than necessary.That is why the Fed may hit pause this week. Officials are aware that monetary policy takes months or years to have its full effect. And recent bank turmoil could further slow down lending and spending, a situation officials are still monitoring.“Anecdotally, it’s not really that bad — but we don’t have even enough survey data,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. For more evidence, she will be watching a Dallas Fed bank survey this month.Still, after Australia and Canada increased rates last week, investors asked: Could this mean that the Fed, too, would be more aggressive than expected?“It is a mistake to make simplistic comparisons,” Krishna Guha, head of the global policy and central bank strategy team at Evercore ISI, said, noting that the Fed still seemed likely to pause in June while teeing up a possible move in July. While the rate increases abroad underscored that inflation is proving sticky globally, he said, that’s no surprise.“We know that inflation has been frustratingly slow to come down,” he said. More