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Trump’s Seesawing on Tariffs Gives the World Whiplash

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Blunt letters dictating terms posted to social media and changes late in negotiations have left trading partners wondering what President Trump will do next.Six months into his new administration, Mr. Trump’s assault on global trade has lost any semblance of organization or structure.He has changed deadlines suddenly. He has blown up negotiations at the 11th hour, often raising unexpected issues. He has tied his tariffs to complaints that have nothing to do with trade, like Brazil’s treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, or the flow of fentanyl from Canada.Talks with the United States were like “going through a labyrinth” and arriving “back to Square 1,” said Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian minister for economic affairs, who met with U.S. officials in Washington on Wednesday.The resulting uncertainty is preventing companies and countries from making plans as the rules of global commerce give way to a state of chaos.“We’re still far away from making real deals,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at the bank ING in Germany. He called the uncertainty “poison” for the global economy.Gone is the idea that the White House would strike 90 deals in 90 days after a period of rapid-fire negotiation, as Mr. Trump pledged in April. Instead, Washington has signed bare-bone agreements with big trading partners including China, while sending many other countries blunt and mostly standardized letters announcing hefty tariffs to start on Aug. 1.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What Is a Trade Deal? Trump Takes an Expansive View.

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    The president is deploying the word “deal” liberally, using the term to describe all kinds of trade arrangements, some very limited or one-sided.The Trump administration is seeking “deals” with countries around the globe, telling major trading partners that it is open for negotiations before higher tariffs kick in on Aug. 1.But what constitutes a trade deal these days has become a tricky question. For the president, a trade deal seems to be pretty much anything he wants it to be.While traditional trade deals run into the hundreds of pages and take years to negotiate, Mr. Trump and his advisers have been using the term to refer to much more limited arrangements. That includes the framework deal announced with Britain in May, which was only a few pages long and included many promises that still need to be negotiated.The president also used the “trade deal” term for the handshake agreement announced with Vietnam last week. In a post on Truth Social, he said it would be “a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries” and bring some tariffs on Vietnamese products down to 20 percent. But since then, neither country has yet publicly released any text or fact sheets describing what has actually been agreed upon.The president has also recently taken to referring to the trade truce his officials made with China in June as a “trade deal,” even though the agreement constituted only an agreement by the two governments to roll back the tariffs and other retaliatory measures they had taken against each other in recent months. A trade deal typically makes changes to the rules of trade — but this truce just returned the relationship to the status quo.In a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Trump also used the term “deal” to refer to one-sided arrangements that other countries had not consented to at all: the letters that he has been sending via his social media account informing governments of new tariff rates on their exports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    As Debt Piles Up, Countries See Fiscal Relief as Political Leverage

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    With developing nations crushed by unaffordable borrowing and Washington on the sidelines, some leaders are brokering debt forgiveness deals.At a summit meeting in Rome last month, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy announced that the European Union was working on a multimillion-dollar plan to provide Africa with some debt relief. The move followed a $15.5 million bailout of Syria by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, erasing the war-torn country’s debt to the World Bank and helping a regional neighbor rebuild.The steps are small given the magnitude of the crushing $8.8 trillion debt that weighs on poor and middle-income countries. Many of these nations spend more on interest payments than on schools and medical care.Ideas for a more coordinated approach to debt and development financing will be discussed at a United Nations conference this week in Spain. But the outlook for comprehensive action is bleak. Twenty-five years ago, wealthy nations, including the United States, struck an extraordinary agreement to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in debt owed by poor countries.Today, President Trump’s retreat from multilateral organizations and relief programs, in addition to rising tensions between the United States and China, is hampering joint efforts to address the deepening sinkhole of debt.But as the world’s wealthiest country withdraws, China could do more to relieve the strain on struggling economies, experts say.No other country has lent more to Africa, Asia and Latin America than China. After a lending binge that began in the mid-2000s and gained momentum in the 2010s, China now accounts for nearly a third of loan repayments made by nations in these regions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    European Union Unveils Fresh Sanctions on Russia, Including a Nord Stream Ban

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    Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, announced a proposal meant to ramp up pressure on Moscow.The European Union’s executive arm unveiled its latest package of sanctions against Russia, aiming to apply pressure to President Vladimir V. Putin by damaging the nation’s energy and banking sectors.The sanctions proposed on Tuesday — which still need to be debated and passed by member states — would ban transactions with the Nord Stream pipelines, hoping to choke off future flows of energy from Russia into Europe.They would lower the price cap at which Russian gas can be purchased on global markets, hoping to chip away at Russian revenues.And they would hit both Russian banks and the so-called “shadow fleet,” old tanker ships, often registered to other countries or not registered at all, that Moscow uses to covertly transport and sell its oil around the world to skirt energy sanctions. The new measures would blacklist a new batch of ships that are being used in this way.The proposal is the 18th sanctions package to come out of Brussels since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Taken as a whole, the measures are a sweeping effort to threaten Russian economic might and morale at a critical juncture in the war.The announcement comes as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stall. Despite pressure from the Trump administration to work toward a cease-fire, the latest round of talks between the two sides, earlier this month in Istanbul, created little result outside of another agreement to swap prisoners.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Pivoting From Tax Cuts to Tariffs, Trump Ignores Economic Warning Signs

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    One day after House Republicans approved an expensive package of tax cuts that rattled financial markets, President Trump pivoted back to his other signature policy priority, unveiling a battery of tariff threats that further spooked investors and raised the prospects of higher prices on American consumers.For a president who has fashioned himself as a shrewd steward of the economy, the decision to escalate his global trade war on Friday appeared curious and costly. It capped off a week that saw Mr. Trump ignore repeated warnings that his agenda could worsen the nation’s debt, harm many of his own voters, hurt the finances of low-income families and contribute far less in growth than the White House contends.The tepid market response to the president’s economic policy approach did little to sway Mr. Trump, who chose on Friday to revive the uncertainty that has kept businesses and consumers on edge. The president threatened 50 percent tariffs on the European Union, and a 25 percent tariff on Apple. Other tech companies, he said, could face the same rate.Since taking office, Mr. Trump has raced to enact his economic vision, aiming to pair generous tax cuts with sweeping deregulation that he says will expand America’s economy. He has fashioned his steep, worldwide tariffs as a political cudgel that will raise money, encourage more domestic manufacturing and improve U.S. trade relationships.But for many of his signature policies to succeed, Mr. Trump will have to prove investors wrong, particularly those who lend money to the government by buying its debt.So far, bond markets are not buying his approach. Where Mr. Trump sees a “golden age” of growth, investors see an agenda that comes with more debt, higher borrowing costs, inflation and an economic slowdown. Investors who once viewed government debt as a relatively risk-free investment are now demanding that the United States pay much more to those who lend America money.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Global Economic Officials Gather Amid Headwinds From Trump’s Trade War

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    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet his international counterparts at a G7 finance ministers meeting in Canada.Top finance officials from the world’s wealthiest economies will begin gathering in Canada on Tuesday for meetings that are expected to be consumed by renewed fears of a global downturn set off by President Trump’s trade war.The summit of the Group of 7 finance ministers, a traditionally friendly gathering, is likely to be more fraught this year. The tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on American allies and adversaries have threatened to blunt global growth and inflame inflation. Europe, Japan and Canada have all been bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s “America first” economic agenda.The tenor of the discussions could also be complicated by recent tension between the United States and Canada, the country hosting this year’s meetings and one that Mr. Trump has said he wants to annex.“I think it’s going to be awkward,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.The three days of meetings will include many of the recent topics of discussion, including support for Ukraine, concerns about China’s economic practices and headwinds facing the global economy. However, Mr. Trump’s trade tactics, which many economists view as the biggest threat to global economic stability, will dominate the discussions between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterparts.Mr. Bessent, who skipped a gathering of the Group of 20 finance ministers in February, will appear at the international forum for the first time and at a particularly tenuous moment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The World Is Wooing U.S. Researchers Shunned by Trump

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    As President Trump guts American research institutions, world leaders see a “once-in-a-century brain gain opportunity.”Help Wanted. Looking for American researchers.As President Trump cuts billions of federal dollars from science institutes and universities, restricts what can be studied and pushes out immigrants, rival nations are hoping to pick up talent that has been cast aside or become disenchanted.For decades, trying to compete with American institutions and companies has been difficult. The United States was a magnet for top researchers, scientists and academics. In general, budgets were bigger, pay was bigger, labs and equipment were bigger. So were ambitions.In 2024, the United States spent nearly $1 trillion — roughly 3.5 percent of total economic output — on research and development. When it came to the kind of long-term basic research that underpins American technological and scientific advancements, the government accounted for about 40 percent of the spending.That’s the reason political, education and business leaders in advanced countries and emerging economies have long fretted over a brain drain from their own shores. Now they are seizing a chance to reverse the flow.In 2024, the United States invested nearly $1 trillion in research and development.Hilary Swift for The New York Times“This is a once-in-a-century brain gain opportunity,” the Australian Strategic Policy Institute declared, as it encouraged its government to act.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Europe’s Pharma Industry Braces for Pain as Trump Tariff Threat Looms

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    Medicines and chemicals are huge exports for European Union countries. That makes the sector a weak spot as trade tensions drag on.Insulin, heart treatments and antibiotics have flowed freely across many borders for decades, exempt from tariffs in a bid to make medicine affordable. But that could soon change.For months, President Trump has been promising to impose higher tariffs on pharmaceuticals as part of his plan to reorder the global trading system and bring key manufacturing industries back to the United States. This month, he said pharmaceutical tariffs could come in the “not too distant future.”If they do, the move would have serious — and wildly uncertain — consequences for drugs made in the European Union.Pharmaceutical products and chemicals are the bloc’s No. 1 export to America. Among them are the weight-loss blockbuster Ozempic, cancer treatments, cardiovascular drugs and flu vaccines. Most are name-brand drugs that yield a large profit in the American market, with its high prices and vast numbers of consumers.“These are critical things that keep people alive,” said Léa Auffret, who heads international affairs for BEUC, the European Consumer Organization. “Putting them in the middle of a trade war is highly concerning.”European companies could react to Mr. Trump’s tariffs in a range of ways. Some pharmaceutical companies trying to dodge the tariffs have already announced plans to increase production in the United States, which Mr. Trump wants. Others could decide to move production there later.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Meloni and Trump Oval Office Meeting Cements Special Rapport

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    In Washington, President Trump inundated Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy with praise. She said he had accepted an invitation to go to Rome.For international leaders, visiting the White House these days is an unpredictable undertaking that comes with a risk of being embarrassed, or worse, berated, by President Trump. For Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Thursday’s meeting in the Oval Office was largely a smooth affair, with Mr. Trump covering her in hyperbolic praise and making clear he is fond of her.But beyond the friendly anti-immigration banter, and shared optimism that the European Union and the United States would reach a trade deal, neither leader indicated that they had made substantial progress on negotiations over tariffs and other issues.“We’re in no rush,” Mr. Trump said.Ms. Meloni was the first European leader to visit the White House since Mr. Trump imposed and then partly paused sweeping tariffs against the European Union. And the meeting dispelled any remaining doubts on the special relationship between the two leaders. But what the rapport could yield for Italy and for Europe remained unclear.“She was treated like a first-rank ally,” said Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at Luiss Guido Carli university in Rome, adding that it was unusual for Italy, which is not a military or economic powerhouse.“She became a de facto mediator,” he added, “but in concrete terms, she did not bring anything home.”The European countries’ trade policy is conducted collectively through the European Union, and Ms. Meloni made it clear that she could not look for a deal on behalf of the bloc. So perhaps her biggest achievement was having Mr. Trump accept her invitation to pay an official visit in the “near future” to Rome, where she hoped he would meet with European officials. If that happens, it could help cement her position as a conduit between Europe and the United States. For now, though, as she said, Mr. Trump had offered no guarantee that he would meet with European officials.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More