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    Estimates Imply That Trump Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

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    President Trump has said that the global tariffs he plans to announce this week will correct decades of unfair relationships and stop other countries from ripping off the United States. But whether the president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs will result in higher levies on other nations or lower ones remains unclear.The president has described his global tariffs as a negotiating tool that could force other countries to drop their trade barriers to American products and result in more goods flowing across borders.But the president has also talked about the tariffs as a way to raise revenue for the government and shift supply chains back to the United States. For those goals to be accomplished, relatively high tariffs would have to be imposed, and not dropped.Those conflicting goals will come to a head this week, when Mr. Trump is expected to reveal the details of his reciprocal tariff plan. Mr. Trump has taken to calling April 2 “liberation day,” saying it will represent the country breaking free of past trade relationships that he says have hurt the United States.It’s not yet clear what Mr. Trump will announce. His advisers have been weighing several different strategies and legal authorities, some of which would be more focused on raising revenue, and others that would be geared toward negotiations and opening global markets, three people familiar with the plans said. Some of the plans under consideration could take effect immediately, while others would take more time but be more insulated from legal challenges.Mr. Trump will be the ultimate decision maker, as recent tariff actions have shown. Some of his own advisers, along with the business community, have been surprised by some of the actions he’s announced in recent weeks, such as placing levies on auto parts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Leave Automakers With Tough, Expensive Choices

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    Carmakers are likely to face higher costs regardless of how they respond to President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on cars and auto parts.Automakers can respond to President Trump’s new 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and parts in several ways. But all of them cost money and will lead to higher car prices, analysts say.Manufacturers can try to move production from countries like Mexico to the United States. They can try to increase the number of cars they already make here. They can stop selling imported models, especially ones that are less profitable.But whatever carmakers decide, car buyers can expect to pay more for new and used vehicles. Estimates vary widely and depend on the model, but the increase could range from around $3,000 for a car made in the United States to well over $10,000 for imported models.Those figures do not take into account additional tariffs that Mr. Trump said he would announce next week to punish countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. He has also said he would increase tariffs further if trading partners like Canada and the European Union raise tariffs in response to his auto tariffs, leading to an escalating tit-for-tat trade war.“It’s going to be disruptive and expensive for American consumers for several years,” said Michael Cusumano, professor of management at the MIT Sloan School of Management.Mr. Trump has long brandished tariffs. But many auto executives had hoped that his threats were a negotiating tool. Mr. Trump dashed those hopes on Wednesday when he said at the White House that the tariffs were “100 percent” permanent.Where Popular Cars (and Their Parts) Come FromHere is a selection of well-known models and where their components come from, as well as where the vehicle is ultimately assembled.

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    Share of parts by origin country
    Source: National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Auto Tariffs: How Major Car Brands Would Be Affected

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    The tariffs on cars and auto parts that President Trump announced on Wednesday will have far-reaching effects on automakers in the United States and abroad.But there will be important differences based on the circumstances of each company.TeslaThe company run by Mr. Trump’s confidant, Elon Musk, makes the cars it sells in the United States in factories in California and Texas. As a result, it is perhaps the least exposed to tariffs.But the company does buy parts from other countries — about a quarter of the components by value in its cars come from abroad, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.In addition, Tesla is struggling with falling sales around the world, in part because Mr. Musk’s political activities and statements have turned off moderate and liberal car buyers. Some countries could seek to retaliate against Mr. Trump’s tariffs by targeting Tesla. A few Canadian provinces have already stopped offering incentives for purchases of Tesla’s electric vehicles.General MotorsThe largest U.S. automaker imports many of its best selling and most profitable cars and trucks, especially from Mexico, where it has several large factories that churn out models like the Chevrolet Silverado. Roughly 40 percent of G.M.’s sales in the United States last year were vehicles assembled abroad. This could make the company vulnerable to the tariffs.But unlike some other automakers, G.M. has posted strong profits in recent years and is considered by analysts to be on good financial footing. That could help it weather the tariffs better than other companies, especially if the import taxes are removed or diluted by Mr. Trump.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Says a Recession Would Be Worth It, but Economists Are Skeptical

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    President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.Presidents usually do all they can to avoid recessions, so much so that they avoid even saying the word.But President Trump and his advisers in recent weeks have offered a very different message. Yes, a recession is possible, they have said. Maybe one wouldn’t even be that bad.Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.Such comments may partly reflect an effort to align political statements with economic reality. Mr. Trump promised to end inflation “starting on Day 1” and declared, in his inaugural address, that “the golden age of America begins right now.”Instead, inflation has remained stubborn, and while Mr. Trump has been in office less than two months, economists warn that his tariffs are likely to make it worse. Measures of consumer and business confidence have plummeted and stock prices have tumbled, attributable in large part to Mr. Trump’s policies and the uncertainty they have caused.“It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” said Sean Vanatta, a financial historian at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Sweeping Tariffs Threaten to Undo a 30-Year Trade Alliance

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    When the United States signed a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico more than 30 years ago, the premise was that partnering with two other thriving economies would also benefit America.This week, President Trump abruptly scrapped that idea. He imposed a sweeping 25 percent tariff on Tuesday on the roughly $1 trillion of imports that Mexico and Canada send into the United States each year as part of that North American trade pact — before quickly walking them back. On Thursday, the president signed executive orders suspending the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for goods that trade under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is much of the trade that crosses North American borders.If the tariffs had gone into full effect, they would have significantly raised costs for Canadian and Mexican exports, undermining their economies and likely tipping them into recession.Mr. Trump’s flirtation this week with unwinding decades of economic integration raises big questions about the future of North America and the industries that have been built around the idea of an economically integrated continent. While some factories in Canada and Mexico might have moved to the United States to avoid tariffs, the levies would also have raised costs for American consumers and manufacturers that have come to depend on materials from their North American neighbors.“This is a day where the United States stopped seeing trade as force for mutual benefit, and began seeing it as a tool of economic warfare,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that the levies were “a fundamental attack on the economic well being of our closest neighbors.”While Mr. Trump suspended his tariffs on Thursday, any relief could be short lived. The president has said that he expects to issue more tariffs on Canada and Mexico next month, when he announces what he is calling “reciprocal” tariff measures.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Latest Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Could Be His Biggest Gamble

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    President Trump has offered a mix of reasons for upending global trade relations, baffling and angering America’s biggest trading partners.President Trump made one of the biggest gambles of his presidency Tuesday by initiating sweeping tariffs with no clear rationale on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, triggering a trade war that risks undermining the United States economy.His actions have upended diplomatic relations with America’s largest trading partners, sent markets tumbling, and provoked retaliation on U.S. products — leaving businesses, investors and economists puzzled as to why Mr. Trump would create such upheaval without extended negotiations or clear reasoning.Mr. Trump has offered up a variety of explanations for the tariffs, saying they are punishment for other countries’ failure to stop drugs and migrants from flowing into the United States, a way to force manufacturing back to America and retribution for countries that take advantage of the United States. On Tuesday, he cited Canada’s hostility toward American banks as another reason.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it was difficult to understand Mr. Trump’s rationale for the tariffs but posited that his intent was to cripple Canada. “What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” Mr. Trudeau said during a news conference on Tuesday. “That’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state.”Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said Tuesday afternoon that the president might reach some sort of accommodation with Canada and Mexico and announce it on Wednesday. “I think he’s going to figure out, you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle some way,” Mr. Lutnick said.Canada announced a series of retaliatory tariffs on $20.5 billion worth of American imports, and Mr. Trudeau said that other “non-tariff” measures were forthcoming.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    When It Comes to Tariffs, Trump Can’t Have It All

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    The president has promised big results, from raising revenue to reviving domestic manufacturing. But many of his goals undermine one another.President Trump has issued an unremitting stream of tariff threats in his first month in office, accompanied by nearly as many reasons for why they should go into effect.Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are a cudgel to force those countries, America’s largest trading partners, to crack down on the flow drugs and migrants into the United States. Levies on steel, aluminum and copper are a way to protect domestic industries that are important to defense, while those on cars will prop up a critical base of manufacturing. A new system of “reciprocal” tariffs is envisioned as a way to stop America from being “ripped off” by the rest of the world.Those goals are almost always followed by another reason for hitting allies and competitors alike with tariffs: “Long term, it’s going to make our country a fortune,” Mr. Trump said as he signed an executive order on reciprocal tariffs this month.Mr. Trump maintains that tariffs will impose few, if any, costs on the United States and rake in huge sums of revenue that the government can use to pay for tax cuts and spending and even to balance the federal budget.But trade experts point out that tariffs cannot simultaneously achieve all of the goals that Mr. Trump has expressed. In fact, many of his aims contradict and undermine one another.For instance, if Mr. Trump’s tariffs prod companies to make more of their products in the United States, American consumers will buy fewer imported goods. As a result, tariffs would generate less revenue for the government.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Clean Energy Was Lifting Manufacturing. Now Investment Is in Jeopardy.

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    With the Trump administration reversing support for low-carbon power, the business case for making wind, solar and electric vehicle parts gets weaker.American manufacturing has been in the doldrums for years, battered by high borrowing costs and a strong dollar, which makes exports less competitive. But there has been a bright spot: billions of dollars flowing into factory construction, signifying that a potential rebound in production and employment is around the corner.The flood of investment has been driven by two major categories of subsidies provided under the Biden administration. One offered incentives for the construction of several enormous semiconductor plants set to begin operation in the coming years. The other supercharged the production of equipment needed for renewable energy deployment.This second category is in jeopardy as the Trump administration and the Republican-led Congress seek to roll back support for low-carbon energy, including battery-powered vehicles, wind power and solar fields.One option to raise money to offset the cost of their desired tax cuts is truncating credits for renewable power generation.“If it ends up that the timeline for these credits is shortened, then the incentives to develop an onshore manufacturing facility obviously go down,” said Jeffrey Davis, a lawyer with White & Case who specializes in renewable energy incentives. “If you’re looking at the prospect of sales and revenue over a three-year period instead of an eight-year period, the manufacturing facility may not pencil out.”The Biden administration’s strategy relied on a push and a pull. First, push the supply of clean energy products through tax breaks, loans and direct grants to manufacturers. Equally important was pulling demand along: rebates for buying electric cars, tax credits for producing renewable power, and subsidies for states and individuals to install solar arrays. Companies contemplating manufacturing investments took both sides into account when planning where to build or expand a plant.Investment in Factories Has Been BoomingAmerica isn’t yet making more stuff, but it’s building more buildings to make more stuff — largely because of subsidies for clean energy and semiconductors.

    Figures for each quarter are shown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, in chained 2017 dollars.Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More