Federal Reserve System

More stories

  • 163 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Rising Wages Are Good News for Workers but Keep Pressure on the Fed

    by

    Wages climbed at a rapid pace in the year through March and the unemployment rate dropped notably last month, signs of a hot labor market that could keep pressure on the Federal Reserve as it contemplates how much and how quickly to cool down the economy.The central bank is trying to slow demand to a more sustainable pace at a moment when inflation is running at its fastest pace in 40 years. Fed officials began raising interest rates in March and have suggested that they may increase rates by half a percentage point in May — twice as much as usual. Making money more expensive to borrow and spend can slow consumption and eventually hiring, tempering wage and price growth.Friday’s employment report could bolster the case for at least one half-point increase.Wages have picked up by 5.6 percent over the past year, the report showed, a far quicker pace than the 2 to 3 percent annual pay gains that were typical during the 2010s. At the same time, the jobless rate fell, to 3.6 percent in March from 3.8 percent in February. Unemployment is now just slightly above the half-century lows it had reached before the pandemic.The unemployment rate continued to fall in March.The share of people who have looked for work in the past four weeks or are temporarily laid off, which does not capture everyone who lost work because of the pandemic. More

  • 50 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Unemployment Nears Prepandemic Level

    by

    Federal Reserve officials are tasked with fostering “full employment,” and while it has been difficult to guess what that means as the economy recovers from huge job losses at the start of the pandemic, March hiring data seemed likely to reaffirm to policymakers that the labor market is running hot.Now, central bankers are hoping conditions settle into a more sustainable balance.The jobless rate declined to 3.6 percent in March from 3.8 percent in February, data released Friday showed. Unemployment is rapidly closing in on the 3.5 percent unemployment rate that prevailed before the pandemic.The unemployment rate continued to fall in March.The share of people who have looked for work in the past four weeks or are temporarily laid off, which does not capture everyone who lost work because of the pandemic. More

  • 125 Shares129 Views

    in Economy

    The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index Climed 6.4 Percent in February

    by

    Inflation continued to run at the fastest pace in 40 years in February, fresh data released on Thursday showed, at a moment when war in Ukraine and continued supply chain disruptions tied to the coronavirus promise to keep prices rising.Prices, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, rose by 6.4 percent in the year through February, the fastest inflation rate since 1982. They climbed 5.4 percent after stripping out food and fuel costs, which can be volatile, the data showed.That pace of increase is far faster than the 2 percent annual inflation that the Federal Reserve targets. While central bankers expect today’s rapid inflation to cool by the end of the year, falling to 4.3 percent by the final three months of 2022, that pace of increase would still be too quick for comfort.Central bankers began raising interest rates earlier this month, lifting them by a quarter percentage point, and have signaled more to come as they begin to wage an assault on rising prices. By making borrowing more expensive, the Fed can weigh on demand, allowing supply to catch up and eventually temper price increases.“There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level, and then to move to more restrictive levels if that is what is required to restore price stability,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a recent speech.Understand Inflation in the U.S.Inflation 101: What is inflation, why is it up and whom does it hurt? Our guide explains it all.Your Questions, Answered: Times readers sent us their questions about rising prices. Top experts and economists weighed in.Interest Rates: As it seeks to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve announced that it was raising interest rates for the first time since 2018.How Americans Feel: We asked 2,200 people where they’ve noticed inflation. Many mentioned basic necessities, like food and gas.Supply Chain’s Role: A key factor in rising inflation is the continuing turmoil in the global supply chain. Here’s how the crisis unfolded.The Personal Consumption Expenditures figures follow a more timely inflation release — the Consumer Price Index — and tend to be easy to forecast, so they do not come as a surprise to Wall Street. But because the gauge is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the fresh figures reinforce the challenge that economic officials face.While policymakers are watching for any sign that inflation is slowing down or is about to cool off, so far there is little to suggest a meaningful pullback. Supply chains remained stressed, and recent shutdowns in China could pose further strain. Apartment rents are climbing, elevating housing costs. Workers are in short supply and wages are rising, which could bolster inflation in other service categories.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed up oil and gas prices, along with other commodity costs, which is likely to further elevate inflation when March data are released. While a few days of gas price increases happened in February, the bulk of them came this month.Companies are trying to navigate the complicated moment, gauging whether input cost increases will continue for a second year — and whether and how to pass that on to consumers.Chewy, the pet goods retailer, recently signed a new freight contract that will cost it more this year; and in the final quarter of 2021, it also faced higher labor costs. But it is hoping that those trends do not last, or that it can offset the climbing expenses through efficiencies.“As we close the book on 2021 and move forward in 2022, we are already seeing improvements in labor availability, inbound shipping costs and pricing, while out-of-stock levels and outbound shipping costs remain elevated,” Sumit Singh, the firm’s chief executive officer, said on an earnings call this week. “Ultimately, we believe most of these challenges are not permanent in nature.”Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 6What is inflation? More

  • 138 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    The Fed Bets on a ‘Soft Landing,’ but Recession Risk Looms

    by

    Central bankers have been clear that they will do what it takes to control inflation. They are betting on a soft landing, but a bumpy one is possible.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, emphasized this week that the central bank he leads could succeed in its quest to tame rapid inflation without causing unemployment to rise or setting off a recession. But he also acknowledged that such a benign outcome was not certain.“The historical record provides some grounds for optimism,” Mr. Powell said.That “some” is worth noting: While there may be hope, there is also reason to worry, given the Fed’s track record when it is in inflation-fighting mode.The Fed has at times managed to raise interest rates to cool down demand and weaken inflation without meaningfully harming the economy — Mr. Powell highlighted examples in 1965, 1984 and 1994. But those instances came amid much lower inflation, and without the ongoing shocks of a global pandemic and a war in Ukraine.The part Fed officials avoid saying out loud is that the central bank’s tools work by slowing down the economy, and weakening growth always comes with a risk of overdoing it. And while the Fed ushered in its first rate increase this month, some economists — and at least one Fed official — think it was too slow to start taking its foot off the gas. Some warn that the delay increases the chance it might have to overcorrect.The Fed has touched off recessions with past rate increases: It happened in the early 1980s, when Paul Volcker raised rates in a campaign to bring down very rapid inflation and sent unemployment rocketing painfully higher in the process.“There is no guarantee that there will be a recession, but you have high inflation, and if you’re serious about bringing it down quickly, you have to hike a lot,” said Roberto Perli, the head of global policy at Piper Sandler, an investment bank, and a former Fed economist. “The economy doesn’t like that. I think the risk is substantial.”It is no surprise that it can be difficult to cool down inflation while sustaining an economic expansion. Higher borrowing costs trickle through the economy by slowing the housing market, discouraging big purchases and prompting companies to cut expansion plans and hire fewer workers. That broad pullback weakens the labor market and slows wage growth, helping inflation to moderate. But the chain reaction plays out gradually, and its results can be seen only with a delay, so it is easy to lay on the brakes too hard.Understand Inflation in the U.S.Inflation 101: What is inflation, why is it up and whom does it hurt? Our guide explains it all.Your Questions, Answered: Times readers sent us their questions about rising prices. Top experts and economists weighed in.Interest Rates: As it seeks to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve announced that it was raising interest rates for the first time since 2018.How Americans Feel: We asked 2,200 people where they’ve noticed inflation. Many mentioned basic necessities, like food and gas.Supply Chain’s Role: A key factor in rising inflation is the continuing turmoil in the global supply chain. Here’s how the crisis unfolded.“No one expects that bringing about a soft landing will be straightforward in the current context — very little is straightforward in the current context,” Mr. Powell acknowledged during his remarks this week, adding, “My colleagues and I will do our very best to succeed in this challenging task.”Six of the eight Fed-rate-increase cycles since the early 1980s have ended in recession, though some of those were caused by external shocks — like the pandemic — and some by asset bubble implosions, including the 2007 housing crisis and the collapse in internet stocks in the early 2000s.Fed officials are hoping that today’s strong economy will help them avoid a rough landing. They point to the fact that labor markets are booming and consumer demand is solid, so lifting rates and tempering voracious buying might help supply to catch up and chill the economy without giving it freezer burn. Mr. Powell has argued that with so many open jobs per unemployed worker, the Fed might be able to slow down the labor market a bit without pushing the unemployment rate up.Loretta J. Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said the Fed was not at a point where it had to decide between fighting inflation or pummeling growth.“Given where the economy is now, and where the risks are, to my mind the major economic challenge is inflation,” Ms. Mester told reporters on a call Wednesday. “I don’t see it as being a trade-off at this point.”James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview that he thought the fact that the central bank had credibility as an inflation fighter — and was raising rates to defend that credibility — could allow it to adjust policy in a way that allowed demand to moderate without causing major economic disruptions.A FedEx worker picked up packages in New York this month. After a year of rapid inflation, there is no guarantee that longer-term inflation expectations will stay in check.DeSean McClinton-Holland for The New York TimesIn the 1980s, when Mr. Volcker was the Fed chair, the central bank had to convince the world that it was prepared to wrestle inflation under control after more than a decade of rapid price gains.“Do whatever it takes — I guess that’s the mantra of the day. I do think inflation is our No. 1 concern,” Mr. Bullard said. “I don’t think, however, that it is a Volcker-like situation.”Near-term consumer and market inflation expectations have shot higher over the past year as inflation has hit a 40-year high and continued to accelerate, but longer-term price growth expectations have nudged only slightly higher.If consumers and businesses anticipated rapid price increases year after year, that would be a troubling sign. Such expectations could become self-fulfilling if companies felt comfortable raising prices and consumers accepted those higher costs but asked for bigger paychecks to cover their rising expenses.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 6What is inflation? More

  • 138 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Mortgage Rates Hit 4 Percent for First Time in 3 Years

    by

    Mortgage rates topped 4 percent this week for the first time in nearly three years — and are expected to keep climbing.The rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.16 percent for the week through Thursday, the first time it exceeded 4 percent since May 2019, according to Freddie Mac. That was up from 3.85 percent a week earlier and 3.09 percent a year ago.Rates have been ticking up thanks to a 40-year high in inflation, which the Federal Reserve is attempting to rein in by raising interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first increase since 2018, and it signaled that six more similarly sized increases were on the way.Mortgage rates don’t move in lock step with the Fed benchmark — they instead track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. That figure is influenced by a variety of factors, including the inflation rate, the Fed’s actions and how investors react to them.“The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.“While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring home-buying season,” he added.The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages dropped as low as 2.65 percent in January 2021. More

  • 88 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Why Is the Fed Raising Interest Rates?

    by

    Prices for groceries, couches and rent are all climbing rapidly, and Federal Reserve officials have been warily eyeing that trend. On Wednesday, they are expected to take their biggest step yet toward counteracting it.Central bank officials — who have been signaling for months that they are preparing to pull back economic support — are expected to raise their policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. That small change will carry with it a major signal. Policymakers are telling markets and the public that they have fully pivoted to inflation-fighting mode and will do what is necessary to make sure price gains do not remain hot for months and years to come.The Fed will release its decision at 2 p.m., and Jerome H. Powell, the central bank’s chair, will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m.The Fed is acting at a tense moment for many consumers, when people are worrying about rising day-to-day expenses and trying to think through what higher interest rates could mean for their finances. Here’s a rundown of what is happening, why it is happening and what it is likely to mean for markets and the economy.The Fed is taking its foot off the accelerator. More

  • 138 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Biden Withdraws Sarah Bloom Raskin as Nominee for Fed’s Top Bank Cop

    by

    President Biden will withdraw his nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to serve as the Federal Reserve’s top bank regulator on Tuesday, after a Democratic senator said he would join Republicans in voting against her, most likely dooming her chances of confirmation.Ms. Raskin earlier on Tuesday sent a letter to the White House asking to withdraw her name from consideration to be the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, according to two people familiar with the decision. The New Yorker earlier reported the existence of the letter.“Sarah was subject to baseless attacks from industry and conservative interest groups,” Mr. Biden said in a statement released on Tuesday afternoon.While the end of Ms. Raskin’s candidacy will leave the Biden administration without the regulatory voice it was hoping for at the Fed Board, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, it could pave the way toward confirmation for the White House’s other Fed picks. Republicans had been stonewalling Ms. Raskin’s nomination, and in the process they were holding up the White House’s four other Fed nominees, including Jerome H. Powell, who is seeking confirmation to a second term as Fed chair.Besides Mr. Powell, Mr. Biden has nominated Lael Brainard to be the Fed’s vice chair and two academic economists — Philip N. Jefferson and Lisa D. Cook — to serve as governors.“I urge the Senate Banking Committee to move swiftly to confirm the four eminently qualified nominees for the Board of Governors,” Mr. Biden wrote in his statement.Ms. Raskin almost certainly lacked sufficient support to pass the Senate. Republicans opposed her nomination to be vice chair for bank supervision and Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, said on Monday that he would not vote to confirm her.In deciding to withhold support for Ms. Raskin, Mr. Manchin essentially doomed her chances in an evenly divided Senate. Democrats most likely needed all 50 lawmakers who caucus with their party to vote for Ms. Raskin, with Vice President Kamala Harris able to break ties.Republicans had shown little appetite for placing a supporter of tougher bank regulation into a powerful regulatory role at the Fed and had also boycotted her nomination over her work in the private sector. Lawmakers refused to show up to a key committee vote to advance her nomination to the full Senate.They had also seized on Ms. Raskin’s writings, saying her statements showed that she would be too aggressive in policing climate risks within the financial system and would overstep the unelected central bank’s boundaries.“President Biden was literally asking for senators to support a central banker who wanted to usurp the Senate’s policymaking power for herself,” Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, said on Tuesday. He added: “It is past time the White House admit their mistake and send us someone suitable.”Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, cited Ms. Raskin’s past comments on the role that financial regulation should play in fighting climate change for his opposition.Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Manchin, who represents a coal state and has close ties to the fossil fuel industry, cited Ms. Raskin’s climate comments in explaining his opposition.Ms. Raskin had written an opinion piece in September 2021 arguing that “U.S. regulators can — and should — be looking at their existing powers and considering how they might be brought to bear on efforts to mitigate climate risk.”She did not argue that the Fed push beyond its legal boundaries, and the fierce backlash underlined that the issue of climate-related regulation is politically fraught territory in the United States.The White House “may want to take some time, lick their wounds, and make sure they carefully think about who to nominate next,” said Ian Katz, a managing director at Capital Alpha Partners. He noted that he would expect the White House to name a new nominee before the midterm elections in November. “They’re not having success with candidates who do not sit well with moderate Democrats.”Saule Omarova, a Cornell Law School professor whom critics painted as a communist after Mr. Biden picked her to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, withdrew her candidacy late last year.Opponents to Ms. Raskin’s confirmation targeted more than just her climate views. They also took issue with work she did in the private sector — and the way she answered questions about that work.Republicans had specifically cited concerns about Ms. Raskin’s time on the board of directors of a financial technology firm. The company, Reserve Trust, secured a coveted account with the Fed — giving it access to services that it now prominently advertises — after Ms. Raskin reportedly called a central bank official to intervene on its behalf.It is unclear how much Ms. Raskin’s involvement actually helped. But the episode raised questions because she previously worked at the Fed and because she made about $1.5 million from the stock she earned for her Reserve Trust work. Democrats regularly denounce the revolving door between regulators and financial firms.Republicans had demanded that Ms. Raskin provide more details about what happened while she was on the company’s board, but she had largely said she could not remember. Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania, the top Republican on the committee, led his colleagues in refusing to show up to vote on Ms. Raskin and the other Fed nominees until she provided more answers.Mr. Toomey signaled on Monday that he would favor allowing the other Fed nominees to proceed.Sherrod Brown, Democrat from Ohio and the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement on Tuesday that he would hold a markup for the other nominees, and later told reporters that he might move them as soon as this week.“Sadly, the American people will be denied a thoughtful, experienced public servant who was ready to fight inflation, stand up to Wall Street and corporate special interests, and protect our economy from foreign cyberattacks and climate change,” Mr. Brown said in his statement.Several more progressive Democrats expressed disappointment that Ms. Raskin would not be confirmed.“The lobbyists have power on Capitol Hill, and when they see their power threatened, they fight back hard — Sarah Bloom Raskin is just the latest casualty,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, said in response to the news.Michael D. Shear More