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    Would a Strong Job Market Stop Fed Rate Cuts? This Official Says No.

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    Mary C. Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that the central bank shouldn’t act “out of fear.”Federal Reserve officials predicted at their last meeting that they would make two more quarter-point rate cuts before the end of 2024 as inflation continued to slow and the job market cooled further.But in the weeks since, labor data have come in stronger, opening a big question: What does it mean for the interest rate outlook if the job market does not slow from here?One Fed official suggested on Tuesday that the central bank should keep lowering interest rates as expected even if the economy is chugging along, so long as inflation continues to cool. Policymakers, she suggested, should not try to slow the economy down if evidence suggests that price increases are coming under control.“I’m very opposed to cutting off expansion out of fear,” Mary C. Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said during an interview on Tuesday morning, ahead of a speech she delivered at New York University.She pointed out that back in 2019, in the year leading up to the pandemic, the job market was very strong but that it did not lead to rapid inflation. In that experience, low unemployment allowed for solid wage gains, and it pulled new people into the labor market.“We should not kill off job growth and good growth as long as it doesn’t produce inflation,” she said. “If we could get 2019 again, I’d be all for it — why not?”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Officials Debated Whether a Big Rate Cut Was Smart in September

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    Freshly released minutes from the central bank’s September meeting show that policymakers were divided on how much to cut rates.Federal Reserve officials were divided over how much to lower interest rates in September, minutes from their last meeting showed, although most officials favored the large half-point rate cut that central bankers ultimately made.“Noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred” a quarter point reduction, according to the minutes from the Sept. 17 and 18 gathering released on Wednesday. And “a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.”While one Fed governor, Michelle Bowman, did vote against the Fed’s big rate cut in favor of a smaller move, the fresh minutes showed that she was not alone in her misgivings. They suggested that the merits of a smaller move were debated.“A few participants” thought that a smaller move “could signal a more predictable path of economic normalization,” the minutes showed.The revelation that there was a spirited discussion about how much to cut rates at the Fed’s last meeting underscores what an uncertain juncture the central bank is facing. Officials are trying to calibrate policy so that it is cooling the economy enough to wrangle inflation fully, without slowing it so much that it plunges America into a recession. But that is an inexact science.The Fed’s ultimate decision — to start of its rate-cutting campaign with a big reduction — came in response to a few economic trends. Inflation has been cooling substantially, job gains had slowed, and the unemployment rate had recently moved up. Those factors suggested that it might be time to remove the Fed’s foot from the economic brakes by lowering rates decisively.Now, though, it looks increasingly unlikely that Fed officials will make another large rate cut this year.Hiring picked up in September, data released last week showed, and the unemployment rate ticked back down. When that is combined with recent evidence of solid consumer spending and healthy household balance sheets, risks of a big economic pullback now seem less pronounced.Given the progress, Fed officials have been signaling that the economic projections that they released after their September meeting are probably a good guide for the rest of 2024. Those suggested that policymakers will cut rates at both their November and December meetings, but by only a quarter point each time.The next big question facing the Fed is when it will stop shrinking its balance sheet of bond holdings. Policymakers bought bonds in huge sums during the early part of the 2020 pandemic, swelling their holdings. They have been shrinking their balance sheet steadily by allowing securities to expire without reinvesting them.Officials appear inclined to stick with that plan, at least for now, based on the minutes.“Several participants discussed the importance of communicating that the ongoing reduction in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue for some time even as the committee reduced its target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes showed. More

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    U.S. Employers Add 254,000 Jobs in September as Economic Growth Remains Solid

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    U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs in September, a sign that economic growth remained solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent.Many have doubted it. Even the optimists have worried about it. But despite the hand-wringing, the American economy appears to be in remarkably good shape.Businesses added 254,000 jobs in September, the government reported on Friday, far surpassing forecasts. It was a sign that the economy, rather than stumbling into a slowdown, still has a spring in its step.The unemployment rate declined to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent. Reported pay gains for workers were also better than expected, at 4 percent over the previous 12 months, an uptick from the August reading. With inflation continuing to ease substantially, that is welcome news for households trying to gain financial traction.A Slight DropUnemployment rate More

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    Jobs Report Gives Kamala Harris Another Boost

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    Vice President Kamala Harris probably could not have hoped for a better run of pre-election economic data than what the United States has enjoyed over the last month.In recent weeks, key inflation indicators have fallen close to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate, after years of running hot under Ms. Harris and President Biden. Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates by a half percentage point, immediately bringing mortgage rates to their lowest level in two years. The Commerce Department confirmed that the economy has grown at a robust 3 percent clip over the last year, after adjusting for rising prices. The Census Bureau reported that the typical household’s inflation-adjusted income jumped in 2023.Those numbers had encouraged Democrats, including policymakers in the White House and close to Ms. Harris’s campaign team. Recent polls have shown Ms. Harris closing the gap, or pulling even, with former President Donald J. Trump on the question of who can best handle the economy and inflation.But it was Friday’s employment report — 254,000 jobs gained, with wages growing faster than prices — that appeared to give Harris boosters a particularly large dose of confidence. The report came less than a day after striking dockworkers agreed to return to work through the end of the year, avoiding what could have been a major economic disruption with a month to go before the election.“The combination of this great job market and easing inflation is generating solid real wage and income gains,” said Jared Bernstein, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “While those continue to power this expansion forward, we’re also seeing record investment in key sectors, an entrepreneurial boom and gains in worker bargaining power to help ensure that workers get their fair share of all this growth.”Even Mr. Biden, who has attempted to strike a balance between cheering the economy’s performance and acknowledging the struggles created by years of fast-rising prices, sounded more upbeat than normal on Friday. He made a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room to celebrate the jobs report and the end of the port strike, which the president and his aides helped broker.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Powell Points to Two More Normal-Size Rate Cuts This Year

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    Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said that central bankers will lower rates as much as needed, but have forecast two more quarter-point rate cuts this year.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, underscored on Monday that officials are likely to lower interest rates in the coming months — but that policymakers do not expect to make those rate cuts in large increments if the economy shapes up as expected.Fed officials lowered interest rates by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, at their meeting on Sept. 18, the first reduction in more than four years. Policymakers usually cut borrowing costs in quarter-point increments, so that was an unusually large decrease.The move came as the Fed made notable progress in its fight against rapid inflation. Price increases have slowed substantially since their 2022 peak, which meant that the high interest rates the Fed had maintained since mid-2023 were no longer seen as necessary.Now, the question is how quickly central bankers will ease off in the months ahead. Speaking to business economists at a conference in Nashville on Monday, Mr. Powell pointed to economic projections that Fed officials released following their recent meeting. Those showed that policymakers thought they would lower rates by another half percentage point by the end of 2024.“That would mean two more cuts, it wouldn’t mean more 50s,” Mr. Powell said, referring to 50-basis-point cuts. “Of course, that will depend on the data. But ultimately, that’s what the baseline is.”The Fed is facing two big risks as it approaches its upcoming policy decisions in November and December.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Cooled in August

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    Inflation has been slowing for months, which has paved the way for Federal Reserve interest rates cuts.Inflation cooled in August, the latest sign of progress in the Federal Reserve’s yearslong fight to bring rapid price increases back under control.The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed by 2.2 percent from a year earlier, data released Friday showed. That is down from 2.5 percent in July and slightly softer than economist forecasts. It was the slowest annual inflation reading since early 2021.After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, a “core” price index was a bit more stubborn on an annual basis. The core measure came in at 2.7 percent, up from 2.6 percent previously and in line with what economists had expected. But comparing prices from month to month, core inflation slowed to a modest 0.1 percent in August.Altogether, the report offers further proof that price increases are swiftly fading. Already, that has allowed the Fed to begin to lower interest rates from a more than two-decade high of 5.3 percent. After raising borrowing costs sharply and then holding them at a high level to slow the economy and weigh down inflation, officials voted last week to cut rates by a larger-than-usual half percentage point. Policymakers also signaled that more rate cuts are coming, as long as inflation continues to fade.The Fed’s pivot is already helping to bring down mortgage rates, and it could slowly trickle through the economy to stop the job market from slowing more markedly. Central bankers are trying to pull off a rare “soft landing,” in which they cool conditions enough to wrangle price increases without tempering them so much that unemployment spikes and the economy falls into a recession.There were some signs that the economy may be pulling back — but not crashing — in the details of Friday’s report. Consumer spending, which makes up a big part of overall economic activity, grew more slowly in August, the data showed. And personal incomes picked up less than expected.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What’s Next for Rate Cuts? The Fed Is Watching Jobs and Prices.

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    A Federal Reserve official predicted quarter point rate cuts if data looked ‘fine’. But he also set out a scenario for a pause — or faster reductions.Having made their first interest rate cut in more than four years this week, Federal Reserve officials are keeping their options open as they try to figure out how rapidly to lower borrowing costs in the months ahead.Fed officials could lower interest rates in standard quarter-point increments if the data continue to look “fine,” Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, suggested in a CNBC interview on Friday. If inflation were to pick back up, Fed policymakers could hold rates steady.And if the job market cools more than expected or if inflation comes in weaker than expected, the Fed could reduce interest rates more rapidly.“If the data starts coming in soft and continues to come in soft,” Mr. Waller said in the interview, he would be willing “to be aggressive on rate cuts to get inflation closer to our target of 2 percent.”Central bankers appear to be poised to lower borrowing costs much more quickly than most economists had expected as recently as a month or two ago. That has left some questioning what prompted the Fed’s pivot toward a more proactive path. And the Fed’s decision to cut rates by a larger-than-usual half point this week has many investors wondering whether other large moves could be on the table.Mr. Waller’s remarks offer insight into the Fed’s thinking at a critical juncture. Policymakers are trying to bring interest rates — which they lifted rapidly starting in 2022 and have left at a high level since 2023 — back toward a more normal setting, at which the rates no longer weigh so heavily on the economy. But how rapidly to do that is a challenging question.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Interest Rates Fall, but Central Banks Are No Longer in Lock Step

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    Officials in some countries started cutting rates last year, but others, including those in Europe and the United States, have taken a more cautious approach.Two years ago, central banks around the world were engaged in a battle against high inflation that resulted in an aggressive and synchronized jump in interest rates. Now, many policymakers are reversing course — but in a less coordinated way as price increases slow at different paces in various countries.Central bankers in some emerging markets began cutting rates last year. European officials started a slow and cautious easing of interest rates just a few months ago. The biggest outlier had been the Federal Reserve, which had kept rates high for more than a year and throughout the summer. On Wednesday, it joined the crowd and cut rates — in a big way — for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.“A few months ago, we were still in the space of American exceptionalism,” said Katharine Neiss, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, an asset manager. There was the expectation that the resilience of the U.S. economy would lead to higher rates for longer, she said. “That was creating a lot of stresses and strains for the rest of the world,” she added.If the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday can ensure a so-called soft landing for the U.S. economy, where inflation is brought down without a severe recession, then that is “really good news for the rest of the world,” Ms. Neiss said. It also eases global financial conditions and reduces pressure on currencies that were taking a hit from the dollar’s strength.Now, the dominant theme around the world is central banks lowering interest rates as inflation slows, falling within sight of their targets, and economic growth weakens. Still, policymakers have been cautious about moving too quickly and reigniting inflationary pressures.The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday after cutting just once last month.Central banks in Norway and Sweden are also expected to hold rates at their meetings later in September, emphasizing their gradual approach. Among emerging markets, the South African central bank cut rates for the first time in four years on Thursday.Still, there are global outliers. Japan belatedly responded to rising inflation by raising rates in July. Investors suggest that the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise rates again in the near future. Nigeria has been raising rates this year as inflation has jumped and, late on Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank raised rates amid concerns that faster economic growth could be inflationary. More