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It’s No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump

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The president has earned a reputation for bluffing on tariffs. But he has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade.President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have prompted investors to bet that he will “always chicken out” and given businesses and foreign leaders hope that the leader of the world’s largest economy will ultimately back down from his threats if they prove too economically disruptive.Events of the past week have cast serious doubt on that bet. As Mr. Trump renews trade threats against more than two dozen trading partners, he is once again proving his fondness for tariffs, and embracing import taxes in a way that no other president has since the Great Depression.A self-described “tariff man,” Mr. Trump has continually extolled the virtues of heavily taxing imports as a way to raise revenue and cajole factories to relocate to the United States. While the president may ultimately give way on some of his most recent threats, he has still steadily and dramatically raised tariffs to levels not seen in a century.Over the past week, Mr. Trump has threatened 25 trading partners with punishing levies on Aug. 1 unless they sign trade deals that Mr. Trump finds acceptable. The list of countries he plans to raise tariffs on include some of America’s biggest sources of imports, including the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Thailand. Those countries had been in active talks with the United States about resolving Mr. Trump’s concerns in an effort to avoid tariffs.Several may still reach deals to avert some of the levies, including India, the European Union, Taiwan and Japan.But even if some deals are reached, American tariffs on trading partners are still likely to rise significantly. That was the case with the two trade agreement frameworks that the Trump administration has so far announced, with Britain and Vietnam, both of which leave double-digit tariffs in place.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    What Is a Trade Deal? Trump Takes an Expansive View.

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    The president is deploying the word “deal” liberally, using the term to describe all kinds of trade arrangements, some very limited or one-sided.The Trump administration is seeking “deals” with countries around the globe, telling major trading partners that it is open for negotiations before higher tariffs kick in on Aug. 1.But what constitutes a trade deal these days has become a tricky question. For the president, a trade deal seems to be pretty much anything he wants it to be.While traditional trade deals run into the hundreds of pages and take years to negotiate, Mr. Trump and his advisers have been using the term to refer to much more limited arrangements. That includes the framework deal announced with Britain in May, which was only a few pages long and included many promises that still need to be negotiated.The president also used the “trade deal” term for the handshake agreement announced with Vietnam last week. In a post on Truth Social, he said it would be “a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries” and bring some tariffs on Vietnamese products down to 20 percent. But since then, neither country has yet publicly released any text or fact sheets describing what has actually been agreed upon.The president has also recently taken to referring to the trade truce his officials made with China in June as a “trade deal,” even though the agreement constituted only an agreement by the two governments to roll back the tariffs and other retaliatory measures they had taken against each other in recent months. A trade deal typically makes changes to the rules of trade — but this truce just returned the relationship to the status quo.In a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Trump also used the term “deal” to refer to one-sided arrangements that other countries had not consented to at all: the letters that he has been sending via his social media account informing governments of new tariff rates on their exports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    How Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Will Affect Companies

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    Home builders, car manufacturers and can makers are among those that will see higher prices for materials. Those companies could charge customers more.President Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent less than three months after imposing a 25 percent tariff on them. He said the move, made Wednesday, would help support U.S. steel companies, but many domestic businesses say that the latest increase would hurt them and raise prices for all Americans.U.S. home builders, car manufacturers, oil producers and can makers will be among the most affected. Many companies in those and other industries will likely pass on cost increases to their customers.“It means higher costs for consumers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a research organization in Washington that tends to favor lower trade barriers.These are some of the industries that could feel the biggest effects from Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs.American Steel MakersIndustry groups representing domestic steel producers praised the steeper levies, which they said could spur investment and create jobs in the United States.Kevin Dempsey, the president and chief executive at the American Iron and Steel Institute, said the latest increase would help U.S. steel producers compete with China and other countries that have flooded the global market with metal. Mr. Dempsey said the industry had worried that the 25 percent tariff on steel imports alone was not sufficient.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S.-U.K. Trade Deal to Build on Close Ties but Leave Some Tariffs in Place

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    Much of the agreement President Trump unveiled Thursday still needs to be negotiated, but the administration said the deal with one of America’s closest allies would be the first of many.President Trump announced on Thursday that the United States intended to sign a trade deal with Britain that would bring the two nations closer and roll back some of the punishing tariffs he issued on that country’s products.Both sides consider a trade pact deeply beneficial, and a deal has been under discussion since Mr. Trump’s first term. But the announcement on Thursday was scant on details, reflecting the haste of the Trump administration’s efforts to negotiate with more than a dozen nations and rework the global trading system in a matter of months.The agreement, which Mr. Trump said would be the first of many, would include Britain’s dropping its tariffs on U.S. beef, ethanol, sports equipment and other products, and buying $10 billion of Boeing airplanes. The United States in return said it would pare back tariffs that Mr. Trump has put on cars and steel, though it will leave a 10 percent levy in place for all British exports.Neither government has said when they expect the agreement to be finalized. A document released by the Trump administration on Thursday evening listed half a dozen general priorities, and said the countries would immediately begin negotiations “to develop and formalize” them.The British government said it was still pushing to bring down the 10 percent tariff on most other goods. American officials said they would push Britain to reconsider a tax on technology companies. Officials from both governments will need to meet in the coming months to hammer out more specific language, leaving open the potential for disagreements.Nevertheless, the leaders of both nations hailed their cooperation in joint announcements on Thursday that invoked the deep relationship between their countries. Speaking from the Oval Office, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain on speakerphone, Mr. Trump called it a “great deal for both countries.” Mr. Starmer noted that it was the 80th anniversary of the Allies’ victory in Europe in World War II.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration to Announce Trade Deal With Britain

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    A deal would be a positive sign for both governments, which have eyed an agreement since President Trump’s first term.President Trump is expected to announce on Thursday that the United States will strike a “comprehensive” trade agreement with Britain.Mr. Trump teased a new trade agreement in a social media post on Wednesday night, though he did not specify which nation was part of the deal. On Thursday, a senior British official confirmed that a deal with the United States had been reached.And on Thursday morning, Mr. Trump was back on social media to confirm that it was, in fact, a deal with the U.K.“The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come,” he wrote. “Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”Mr. Trump is expected to announce the deal at 10 a.m. from the Oval Office.The British official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, did not offer details, beyond saying that the deal would be good for both Britain and the United States.The agreement would be the first deal announced since Mr. Trump imposed stiff tariffs on dozens of America’s trading partners. He later paused those temporarily in order to allow other nations to reach agreements with the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares139 Views

    in Economy

    Bond Market Sell-Off Prompts Bank of England to Make Unusual Move

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    The Bank of England ditched its plan to sell some of its holdings of long-term bonds next week, after U.S. Treasuries led a rout in the global government bond market.Stock markets have taken a hit since President Trump announced steep tariffs on dozens of countries, but the turmoil also swept into the bond market this week. Yields on U.S. Treasuries, which move in the opposite direction to prices, jumped higher as investors sold the assets traditionally considered a haven in turbulent times.Mr. Trump on Wednesday paused some of his tariffs, saying the markets were getting “yippy.” The U.S. government bond market is enormous and can influence moves in other assets around the world.Yields on British government bonds, known as gilts, have jumped higher in recent days, particularly long-dated debt. The yield on the 30-year gilt soared to 5.58 percent on Wednesday, the highest since 1998.Even as the yield came down somewhat on Thursday, the Bank of England said it would sell 750 million pounds, or $970 million, from its holdings of short-term bonds instead of longer-maturing ones “in light of recent market volatility.”Since late 2022, the Bank of England has been selling bonds that it bought to bolster the economy during the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. The plan got off to a rough start: It was delayed when the central bank stepped back in to buy bonds to halt the turmoil triggered when former Prime Minister Liz Truss proposed an aggressive tax-cutting budget that incited market chaos.Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, has previously said that there would be a “high bar” for changes to its plan for gilt sales outside of the regular annual review process.The adjustment to the schedule on Thursday is an unusual move. The bank will sell the same amount of bonds. But by offloading short-term debt the pressure is reduced on long-term bonds — selling of those bonds by other investors has been the most intense and raised interest rates for government borrowing.Long-dated gilt sales will be rescheduled for next quarter, the central bank said. It owns £621 billion in gilts, down from £875 billion at its peak in early 2022. More

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    in Economy

    Britain Tried Everything, Including a Royal Invite. It Got a 10% Tariff.

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    After all that — the chummy Oval Office meeting, the extraordinary royal invitation, the paeans to the “special relationship” — Britain and its solicitous prime minister, Keir Starmer, still got swept into President Trump’s tariffs, along with the European Union and other major American trading partners.Mr. Trump imposed his basic tariff of 10 percent on Britain, while hitting the European Union with 20 percent. That drew sighs of relief from Mr. Starmer’s aides, who said the difference would protect thousands of British jobs. They claimed vindication for Mr. Starmer’s charm offensive toward the American president; others said it was a dividend of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016.Yet in another sense, it was a Pyrrhic victory: Britain was subject to the same blanket tariff as dozens of countries, even though the United States runs a trade surplus with Britain, according to U.S. statistics.Britain clearly hopes to strike some kind of trade deal with Mr. Trump down the road, which could spare it the tariffs’ lasting effect. On Thursday, Mr. Starmer told business executives that the British would react with “cool and calm heads.”The question is whether he will stick to his strategy — resisting pressure to impose retaliatory tariffs, for example — or fall into line with other countries, like Canada, in striking back against the United States. Downing Street said it would not impose tit-for-tat measures while trade talks were underway.“His strategy up till now has been perfectly understandable,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London. “If I were him, I would have done the same. Now he needs to avoid confrontation for the sake of it, but there’s no point in appeasement either.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares189 Views

    in Economy

    A New Fine-Dining Restaurant in London, Staffed by Ex-Homeless People

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    In London’s upmarket Primrose Hill, a Michelin-starred chef is employing people on the edge of homelessness as chefs, wait staff and cocktail makers.It’s been three weeks since the restaurant, Home Kitchen, opened its doors and Mimi Mohamed is pretty sure she knows the lemon tart recipe by heart. But just in case, a small notebook where she has carefully written out the ingredients is propped up at the back of the steel counter: 18 lemons; 420 grams of butter; 900 grams of sugar; 24 eggs.The recipe is from Adam Simmonds, a celebrated Michelin star-winning chef. Novices like Ms. Mohamed are not usually found in his kitchens, but this new, upscale dining venture is not usual. Almost every member of the 19-person team has been homeless.“The crew downstairs in the kitchen, they make so many mistakes, but that’s OK,” Mr. Simmonds said with a laugh. “We accept that and we learn from it.”He is sitting upstairs in the front dining room. A large window overlooks the main commercial street in Primrose Hill, a neighborhood in north London that oozes British charm.The idea was hatched four years ago by Alex Brown, director of Soup Kitchen London, where Mr. Simmonds took a turn cooking at the start of the pandemic. The most common question from those who lined up for food was “Do you know of any jobs?”Home Kitchen is aimed at breaking the cycle of homelessness and joblessness by training people for a career in the restaurant industry.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Economic Grievances Were Exploited in Britain’s Violent Unrest

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    Nationalist hatred has been linked to forces like stagnant wages and declining services, even though research shows immigration helps many economies.Like many cities around Britain shaken by anti-immigrant riots over the past week, Hartlepool, a seaside town on the northeast coast, has partly recovered from the devastating waves of industrial decline that began washing over the country in the 1980s.Still, the scars linger. Disposable income is below the national average, and more people are out of the work force, according to the Office for National Statistics. There are fewer active businesses, healthy life expectancy is lower and the crime rate is 89 percent higher.In Britain, as well as throughout Europe and in the United States, economic problems — like stagnant wages, roaring inequality and declining public services — have been linked to the rise of anti-immigrant attitudes.Even though research shows that immigration is an overall plus for most economies, far-right politicians have been able to exploit those frustrations to energize supporters and gain political power.In Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist, anti-immigration party Reform, has regularly made false claims that refugees and migrants drained public budgets. He has complained, for instance, about Britain having to “build a house every two minutes” to accommodate legal migrants and warned of “those arriving on the back of lorries” trying to get benefits.Mr. Farage, who was elected to Parliament in July, added to the web of disinformation that helped kindle the riots by inaccurately suggesting the man who fatally stabbed three young children at a dance class in Southport was an undocumented immigrant. He later came out against the violence.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More