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    U.K. Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Rebuild

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    As Russia’s ruinous attacks on Ukraine mount, Britain’s government is proposing legislation that would enable it to divert frozen Russian assets to the rebuilding of Ukraine and keep sanctions in place until Moscow pays compensation to its war-torn neighbor.The British announcement is in line with a decision last month at the annual Group of 7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, to freeze the estimated $300 billion worth of Russian assets held by banks and financial institutions in those countries — including Britain — “until Russia pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.”The issue of seized assets is highly contentious. While governments have the power to freeze assets, the European Central Bank has privately warned Brussels that confiscating Russian funds or giving the earned interest on those accounts to Ukraine could undermine confidence in the euro and shake financial stability, according to a report in The Financial Times. Investors might be reluctant to use euros as a reserve currency if they fear their funds could be grabbed.Ukraine’s reconstruction costs are estimated to top $411 billion, according to the most recent numbers from the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations. The ravaged landscape of the eastern city of Bakhmut, which President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine laid out at the G7 meeting, is just one sign of the damage. “You have to understand that there is nothing,” Mr. Zelensky told reporters. “They’ve destroyed everything. There are no buildings.”The bank’s estimate was calculated before the vast devastation unleashed by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine this month.Calls to seize Russian assets and use them for Ukraine’s reconstruction have increased as the war has stretched well into its second year. Last week, the United States Senate introduced a bipartisan bill to confiscate Russian assets and use them for Ukraine’s reconstruction. And the issue is also expected to come up at a Ukraine Recovery Conference being held in London on Wednesday and Thursday.Since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine early last year, Britain has frozen roughly $23 billion in assets and imposed sanctions on 1,550 individuals. The government’s latest proposal will require people under sanctions to disclose their holdings in Britain.“Through our new measures today, we’re strengthening the U.K.’s sanctions approach,” James Cleverly, Britain’s foreign secretary, said in a statement on Monday accompanying the announcement, “affirming that the U.K. is prepared to use sanctions to ensure Russia pays to repair the country it has so recklessly attacked.” More

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    Britain’s Economic Health Is Withering With Sick Workers on the Sidelines

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    Many people who want to work can’t because of long-term health problems, a persistent issue that is causing Britain’s economy to go “into reverse.”Christina Barratt was used to the 12- to 14-hour days. For years, she would get into her car each morning and set out to department stores and other retailers all over northwest England, selling greeting cards for a large manufacturer.“It’s a very demanding, busy job,” she said, recalling how she had to make sales, manage client accounts and grow the business, while often traveling long distances.In March 2020, at the age of 50, Ms. Barratt got Covid. She hasn’t been able to work since.Ms. Barratt is among 3.5 million people — or about one in 12 working-age adults in Britain — who have long-term health conditions and are not working or looking for work. The number ballooned during the first two years of the pandemic when more than half a million more people reported they were long-term sick, with physical and mental health conditions, according to analysis by economists at the Bank of England. The sharp rise in ill health is a startling problem itself, but there has also been a growing awareness in Britain about the negative effects on the economy of having so many people unable to work.Sickness is adding to the growing sense of malaise in a country troubled by high inflation and the economic costs of Brexit, where the National Health Service is overwhelmed and workers across industries are striking in ever larger numbers, coming after a year of severe political upheaval.With the unemployment rate near its lowest point in half a century, businesses have loudly complained that they have been unable to hire enough workers, leaving the government grappling with how to expand the labor market. Before the pandemic, a growing labor market had been “the single cylinder of growth in the economic engine,” Andy Haldane, the former chief economist of the Bank of England, said in November during a lecture at the Health Foundation, a nonprofit organization. It “has now gone into reverse gear.”Britain is in “a situation where for the first time, probably since the Industrial Revolution, where health and well-being are in retreat” and acting as a brake on economic growth, said Mr. Haldane, who currently serves as the chief executive of the Royal Society of Arts, an organization in London that seeks practical solutions to social issues.The economy is probably already in a recession, according to forecasts by the Bank of England and others, and is expected to return to only meager growth in 2024. Some economists have warned that shortages of workers could deepen the cost-of-living crisis if it causes employers to raise wages to attract workers in a way that threatens to entrench high inflation into the economy. That could prompt the central bank to keep interest rates high, pushing up borrowing costs and restraining the economy.At the heart of the problem is a high economic inactivity rate that has barely budged despite the end of pandemic lockdowns, a boom in labor demand and a high cost of living. As of October, over half a million more people were counted as inactive than before the pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics. In a separate study looking at data for the first two years of the pandemic, Jonathan Haskel and Josh Martin, economists at the Bank of England, found that nearly 90 percent of the increase in economic inactivity could be attributed to people who were long-term sick.The extent to which sickness is forcing people to leave the work force is still being debated among researchers in Britain because the reasons for not working can change over time. But there is little disagreement that the economy is being held back by having so many people who say ill health has kept them from working.A sign outside a pub in Hampshire, Britain, that takes a creative tack in advertising for workers.Chine Nouvelle, via ShutterstockBusinesses have loudly complained that they have been unable to hire enough employees.Paul Ellis/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesContributing to the rise in sickness are not only tens of thousands of cases of long Covid, which Ms. Barratt is suffering from, but also a vast backlog of people — about seven million — with a variety of health problems who are on waiting lists for N.H.S. care. The latest numbers add to a longer-term trend. In the 25 years before the pandemic, the tally of people reporting long-term sickness grew about half a percent a year. Since then, it accelerated to 4 percent a year, according to the study by Mr. Haskel and Mr. Martin.Britain’s aging population means there are more sick people, but “the prevalence of poor health has been growing” as well, said David Finch of the Health Foundation, which has studied links between illness and economic inactivity. In the past few years, the foundation found, there has been a large increase in the number of people with cardiovascular problems, mental illness, and a range of other ailments, which would include respiratory conditions and long Covid symptoms.Britain is one of just seven countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that still has a higher rate of economic inactivity than it did before the pandemic, the Office for National Statistics reported. The United States is also in this group, but its missing workers are mostly explained by retirement and a decline in participation by middle-aged men without college degrees, rather than sickness. The increase in the rate of economic inactivity in Britain is more than twice as large as the increase in the United States. These missing workers face a number of barriers in returning to work. For some, the severity of their health condition prevents them from working, while others are unable to return to the job they used to do. . Ms. Barratt, the greeting card saleswoman, has no illusions about going back to a similar job.“There’s no way I could do that kind of role any more,” Ms. Barratt said. “I’m just not well enough to sustain any kind of level of energy.” Just getting up and down the stairs at home is a challenge, she said.She is feeling the strain of living on government benefits for more than two years and would like to return to work. “If I continue to have this condition, which can go up and down in severity, I’d have to find some kind of employment that was very flexible,” she added.Although there has been a worrying increase in the number of economically inactive people — sick or not — who don’t want to work, there are still 1.7 million who do but are unable to look for a job and start work soon, according to the Office for National Statistics.Kirsty Stanley said the transition back to work for people with long Covid can be difficult. “They basically expect people to go from potentially zero to 100” within four to six weeks, she said.Nicholas White for The New York Times“This has been a long-term issue in keeping people with disabilities in the workplace,” said Kirsty Stanley, an occupational therapist. There are a lot of challenges, including some employers not understanding legal requirements to make reasonable accommodations for employees with health problems, Ms. Stanley said. She is an associate for Long Covid Work, a group that works with unions and employment groups to improve access to work for people with long Covid. Mr. Haskel and Mr. Martin estimate that there are 96,000 people who are economically inactive because of long Covid.Ms. Stanley, who also suffers from long Covid, said one problem was that the gradual period for returning to work that employers offer to people after a long absence doesn’t work well for those with long Covid.“They basically expect people to go from potentially zero to 100” within four to six weeks, she said. “What happens is people crash.”A little over two years ago, Michael Borlase did a four-week phased return to work after being sick with Covid. But at the end of the period, after getting back to an eight-hour shift, he got sick again and could not go back to work.He was a newly qualified nurse working in a psychiatric ward for men with mental health issues who have committed a crime. He was there for just eight months before he got Covid in April 2020.Michael Borlase used to be a nurse in a psychiatric ward. Now he’s not sure he could go back to that work. Nicholas White for The New York Times“I’d been so poor for so long as a student nurse,” he said. “I was thrilled to be working, work for the N.H.S. and felt very proud of the work I was doing. And then Covid hit.”“I was very early on in my career,” he added. “And now I don’t know if I can ever go back again.”At age 36, he said he felt “stuck in a professional limbo,” where he could not do the job he spent years training for but was too unwell to train for something else. Until September, Mr. Borlase received full pay because of a provision for N.H.S. workers with Covid. Since then, Mr. Borlase has been receiving reduced wages from sick pay, which will expire in April.Delays in getting health treatment have made it difficult for Andrea Slivkova, 43, to return to work. A Czech native who came to Britain 10 years ago, she left her job cleaning offices in mid-2021 because of pain from a prolapsed pelvic organ. It was more than a year before she could have the surgery to address the problem. Since then, she said, she is still unwell but has not been able to have a follow-up appointment with a specialist. Last summer, she was told it would be a five-month wait.“They told me that the waiting list is long because other people are waiting, too,” Ms. Slivkova said, with her daughter, Kristyna Dudyova, translating from Czech.Ms. Slivkova still hasn’t returned to work. She described the strain of having a physical health condition but also the struggle to navigate the health care system and the financial stress of relying on government benefits.Ms. Dudyova recalled how her mother used to be a workaholic, who found time to bake, go to the gym, work multiple jobs if necessary, all while raising her and her younger brother.“But now everything is just gone,” she said. More

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    U.K. Rail Strike May Scuttle Post-Holiday Plans to Return to Work

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    Public sympathy for striking nurses and other health workers is particularly strong, posing a challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has promised to confront trade unions.The winter holiday season across most of Britain ends on Tuesday, but the return to work for millions of Britons comes on the same day as yet another train strike, promising a commute as unpredictable as the country’s increasingly erratic rail network.Britain begins the new year just as it ended the old one, in the middle of a wave of labor unrest that has involved as many as 1.5 million workers so far, concentrated in the public sector and formerly state-owned businesses. Nurses in England, Northern Ireland and Wales walked out twice last month; ambulance crews have staged their largest work stoppage in decades; and border agents, postal staff and garbage collectors have taken similar action in a “winter of discontent.”With wages lagging galloping inflation, many, including nurses, plan to stop work again this month, leading some British news outlets to raise fears of a de facto general strike that could bring the country to a grinding halt.Yet while months of disruption have eroded some sympathy for rail workers, with the public roughly split over train strikes, support for health workers, whose tireless efforts during the coronavirus pandemic were widely lauded as heroic, remains buoyant.“January will be the test: Will the British public shift?” said Steven Fielding, an emeritus professor of political history at the University of Nottingham. He added that while further rail strikes might prompt a long-predicted backlash against the unions, “It’s remarkable how much it hasn’t happened.”Sympathy for strikes by nurses and ambulance workers has been stoked by a sense than Britain’s National Health Service is overwhelmed.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesThat is not for want of effort by Britain’s conservative tabloids. One newspaper nicknamed Mick Lynch, the combative leader of a rail union, “The Grinch,” accusing him of wrecking Christmas, spoiling office parties and hampering family reunions. In the city of Bristol, one pub canceled a rail workers’ Christmas party in retaliation for strikes thought to have hurt the hospitality trade.But in general, support for the strikers has stayed strong, according to a YouGov opinion poll last month, which showed 66 percent of respondents supported striking nurses and 28 percent opposed them, 58 favoring firefighters with 33 against, and 43 percent in favor of rail workers with 49 opposed. Another poll, by Savanta ComRes, found the same percentage in support of further rail strikes, but only 36 percent opposed.Even many Britons who support the governing Conservative Party say they believe that health workers have a case, a reflection both of the popularity of the country’s National Health Service and concerns about its ability to cope with huge pressures. And, underscoring a growing sense of malaise, another poll recorded a majority agreeing with the statement that “nothing in Britain works anymore.”That may pose a challenge for Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who insists that agreeing to raises could embed inflation, which he sees as the real enemy of working people. Instead, he promises new, and as yet unspecified, laws to restrict labor unrest, while critics of trade unions argue rail workers are risking their futures as commuters stay away from a network already suffering from the growth of working from home.“It’s difficult for everybody because inflation is where it is, and the best way to help them and everyone else in the country is for us to get a grip and reduce inflation as quickly as possible,” Mr. Sunak told a parliamentary committee in December, when asked about the plight of striking workers.Nurses striking in London last month. A poll last month found 66 percent of respondents in favor of the strike, with 28 percent opposed.Maja Smiejkowska/ReutersNews reports suggest that an agreement to end the rolling series of rail strikes could be close, but despite holding the purse strings over the employers of rail staff, the government has resisted direct involvement in negotiations.The wave of strikes comes amid Britain’s cost-of-living crisis and follows years of constrained public spending, and unions say they are responding to a decade of neglect of vital services.“I think the fact that this comes after 10 to 12 years of austerity has affected the public mood and is maybe what’s helping the unions and their members not to lose public support,” said Peter Kellner, a polling expert. “The evidence so far is that public opinion hasn’t materially shifted. I don’t see any particular reason why it should, especially with the health service,” he added.At King’s Cross Station in London last week, there were certainly signs of annoyance among commuters at the disrupted services.“Most of the time my train is canceled or delayed,” said Daisy Smith, an airline worker from London who was waiting to travel to York, about two hours north of the capital. “It is ridiculous that they are on strike.”King’s Cross Station in London last week. Britons have long found their train service unreliable.Hollie Adams/Getty ImagesBut Ms. Smith said she sympathized with the strikers, believed they deserved a pay rise and was frustrated by the standoff. “The government needs to do something about it,” she said, adding that the dispute had been allowed to fester for months.Andrew Allonby, a public-sector worker who was traveling home to Newcastle, in northeast England, said he, too, supported the strikers.“I know there is no money around, but there has got to be a line,” he said, referring to reports that some health workers were relying on donated groceries. “Nurses having to go to food banks is ridiculous.”Public sympathy is being driven by a widespread feeling that the health system is understaffed and overwhelmed. One senior doctor made headlines by warning that as many as 500 patients a week could be dying because of long delays in emergency rooms across the country. And on Monday the vice president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine said many emergency departments were in a state of crisis.Pay levels for nurses are recommended by an independent body whose suggestion of a 4.3 percent increase, issued before much of last year’s inflation was evident, had been accepted by the government.That is well short of the 19 percent demanded by nurses, but ministers have refused to budge, pointing to a 3 percent annual raise for nurses in 2021, when the pay of many others was frozen for the year.Britain’s health secretary, Steve Barclay, raised hackles last month by saying that striking ambulance unions had made a “conscious choice to inflict harm on patients” — a statement described by Sharon Graham, general secretary of the union Unite, as a “blatant lie.”Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised new laws to restrict labor unrest.Kin Cheung/Associated PressMark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, told the broadcaster Sky News, “We have had 10 years where our pay has not kept pace with inflation.” He added that 40,000 government staff members used food banks and that 45,000 of them were so poor they had to claim welfare payments.Dawn Poole, a striking border force officer at London’s Heathrow International Airport and representative of the union, said that rising food and energy costs, combined with a hike in mortgage interest rates, had been the final straw for already-struggling staff.“We have had people selling houses to downsize or struggling to pay the rent,” she said. Mr. Sunak’s tough stance is a gamble. If the strikes collapse, that could build his reputation as a leader able to stand firm and administer tough measures to stabilize the economy. It could also bolster his leadership within a fractious Conservative Party, where standing up to trade unions is associated with former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who came to power in 1979 after labor unrest also known as the winter of discontent and faced down striking miners.Mrs. Thatcher, however, prepared for her standoff with the miners, ensuring that coal stocks were high and confronting them at a time when unions were widely seen as too powerful.Inflation in Britain has been running at an annual rate of over 10 percent.Andy Rain/EPA, via ShutterstockBy contrast, today’s unions appear to be more in sync with the popular mood, analysts say, because Britons know that well before the strikes, their railways were unreliable and their health service was creaking under acute pressure.“The argument that ‘We’re on strike to save the National Health Service,’ which is what the nurses have been saying, resonates with what people know from their own experience,” said Professor Fielding.Mr. Kellner, the polling expert, said he believed that the government should separate the nurses and ambulance crews from other strikers.“As long as the health workers are on strike, the other unions have some degree of cover,” he said. “If in a month’s time we are where we are now, with nothing settled, I think the government will be in a really bad position.”In the meantime, rail travelers must decide whether to even try to head to the office this week. As one rail operator warned: “Until Jan. 8, only travel by train if absolutely necessary.” More

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    U.K. Inflation Rate Slows to 10.7 Percent

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    The pace of price rises in November edged lower, from 11.1 percent, but households are still being squeezed as wages fail to keep up.Britain’s inflation rate eased away from a 41-year high on Wednesday, but the slowdown brings only limited relief to a nation gripped by a deep cost-of-living crisis.Consumer prices in Britain rose 10.7 percent in November from a year earlier, bringing the rate of inflation down slightly from 11.1 percent in October, which was the highest annual rate since 1981, the Office for National Statistics said.Despite this tentative sign that inflation might have peaked, British households are being squeezed by high energy bills, food costs and mortgage rates, while wage growth is failing to keep up with inflation. Britons are facing a sharpest decline in living standards over the next two years in records dating to the mid-1950s, which is prompting a growing wave of labor unrest. Railroad and postal workers are on strike on Wednesday over demands for higher pay, while nurses are set to walk off the job on Thursday.On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4 percent in November, easing the torrid pace of October when they climbed 2 percent in a single month because of higher energy costs, despite billions spent by the government to cap household gas and electric bills.Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, slowed to an annual rate of 6.3 percent, from 6.5 percent in October. Economists had expected core inflation to hold steady, according to a survey by Bloomberg. A slowdown in transportation prices, particularly for fuel, as well as clothing and recreation services, all contributed to the lower overall inflation rate, while rising prices in restaurants and for groceries partially offset that. Food and drink prices climbed 16.4 percent in November from a year earlier.As a whole, Wednesday’s inflation data are “undoubtedly welcome,” Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec, wrote in a note. But “at 10.7 percent consumer price inflation is still running well ahead of average income growth, causing pain that households can readily attest to.”“There is still a long way to go before the all-clear on inflation can be sounded,” she added.The deceleration in the overall inflation rate will be encouraging for Bank of England policymakers who have sharply raised interest rates to try to tamp down inflation. Inflation also slowed more than expected in the United States, data released on Tuesday showed.But this isn’t enough for central bankers to declare victory, as they target a 2 percent inflation rate. Policymakers want to ward against the risk that high inflation lingers for years to come. They are alert to how much businesses pass on price increases to customers and how much wages rise in response to the higher cost of living and a tight labor market.Data published on Tuesday showed that average pay in Britain, excluding bonuses, rose an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the three months to October. Even though that’s slower than the rate of inflation, policymakers argue that this pickup in wages is still too high to be sure inflation can sustainably return to target. On Thursday, Bank of England policymakers are expected to raise interest rates for a ninth consecutive time, to 3.5 percent from 3 percent. The half-point increase is expected to match rate changes by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday. All three central banks are expected to decelerate from previous increases in interest rates of three-quarters of a point.Policymakers are expected to slow the pace of rate increases as they assess the impact of months of tighter monetary policy in damping economic demand to squash inflationary pressures. In Britain, the central bank’s rising benchmark rate, which has climbed from 0.1 percent a year ago, has already led to a notable increase in mortgage rates, with millions of households facing sharp increases in payments next year, and house prices falling.While the inflation outlook is uncertain, the Bank of England predicts that the rate of price increases will slow sharply from the middle of next year as past jumps in energy prices drop out of the annual calculations.But the cost of high inflation won’t fall away so quickly. The British economy is likely already in a recession that the central bank predicts to last all through next year. Household finances will be under “significant pressure” from below-inflation wage gains, higher mortgage costs and an expected increase in unemployment, according to a financial stability report by the Bank of England published on Tuesday.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a nonprofit, said on Wednesday that more than seven million households were “going without essentials,” which meant they had reported going hungry or skipping meals or didn’t have adequate clothing, based on a survey. Just under five million households were said to be in arrears on at least one household bill.“I know it is tough for many right now, but it is vital that we take the tough decisions needed to tackle inflation — the No. 1 enemy that makes everyone poorer,” Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said in a statement in response to the inflation data on Wednesday. “If we make the wrong choices now, high prices will persist and prolong the pain for millions.”This tough stance comes as government ministers have been embroiled in debates with unions over improving pay offers following a long history of below-inflation wages. Recently a large gulf has opened up between pay growth in the private and public sectors. Before accounting for inflation, private-sector pay rose at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the three months to October, but just 2.7 percent for workers in the public sector, data published on Tuesday showed.Pat Cullen, the chief executive of the Royal College of Nurses, the union whose members will go on strike on Thursday and again next week, accused the government of “belligerence” as talks broke down. More

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    Global Car Supply Chains Entangled With Abuses in Xinjiang, Report Says

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    A new report on the auto industry cites extensive links to Xinjiang, where the U.S. government now presumes goods are made with forced labor.The global auto industry remains heavily exposed to the Xinjiang region of China for raw materials, components and other supplies, a new report has found, despite a recent U.S. law intended to restrict purchases from the area, where the Chinese government has committed human rights abuses against mostly Muslim minorities.The report, from a team of researchers led by Laura T. Murphy, a professor of human rights and contemporary slavery at Britain’s Sheffield Hallam University, details the links between Chinese companies with deep ties to Xinjiang and the automakers that use their supplies, such as metals, batteries, wiring and wheels.The report identifies major Chinese companies that the researchers determined have participated in coercive labor programs in Xinjiang, or have recently sourced their materials and products from the region, where China has engaged in mass internment of Uyghurs and other minorities. Those Chinese firms are major participants in the global supply chain for auto parts, the report says, raising the likelihood that automakers like Volkswagen, Honda, Ford Motor, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz Group, Toyota and Tesla have sold cars containing raw materials or components that have at some point touched Xinjiang.“There was no part of the car we researched that was untainted by Uyghur forced labor,” Dr. Murphy said. “It’s an industrywide problem.”Such links could pose serious problems for the international auto brands. The Biden administration, like the Trump administration before it, has taken an increasingly aggressive posture toward Chinese trade violations and imports of goods made with forced labor, which the United Nations estimates affects 28 million people worldwide.Under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, products made wholly or partly in Xinjiang are now assumed to have been produced with forced labor, making them vulnerable to seizure by the federal government if they are brought into the United States. Customs officials say that since the law went into effect in June, they have stopped roughly 2,200 shipments — valued at more than $728 million — that were suspected of having Xinjiang content. More than 300 of those products were ultimately released into the United States.Federal officials did not disclose what kinds of products have been seized. But the new rules have been particularly disruptive for companies making clothing and solar panels, which source raw materials like cotton and polysilicon from Xinjiang.The New York Times has not independently verified the entire contents of the new report, which names roughly 200 companies, both Chinese and international, with potential direct or indirect links to Xinjiang. Many of the Chinese industrial giants named in the report have multiple production sites, meaning they could be supplying international automakers with metal, electronics or wheels made from their factories outside Xinjiang.The global supply chain for auto parts is vast and complex. According to estimates by McKinsey and Company, the average automotive manufacturer may have links to as many as 18,000 suppliers in its full supply chain, from raw materials to components.Many of those suppliers run through China, which has become increasingly vital to the global auto industry and the United States, the destination for about a quarter of the auto parts that China exports annually. Xinjiang is home to a variety of industries, but its ample coal reserves and lax environmental regulations have made it a prominent location for energy-intensive materials processing, like smelting metal, the report says.Chinese supply chains are complicated and opaque, which can make it difficult to trace certain individual products from Xinjiang to the United States. Over the past three years, Xinjiang and other parts of China have been intermittently locked down to keep the coronavirus at bay. Even before the pandemic, the Chinese government tightly controlled access to Xinjiang, especially for human rights groups and media outlets.Determining the extent of coercion that any individual Uyghur worker may face in Xinjiang’s mines or factories is also difficult given the region’s restrictions. But the overarching environment of repression in Xinjiang has prompted the U.S. government to presume that any products that have touched the region in their production are made with forced labor unless companies can prove otherwise.Workers in the region “don’t have a chance to say no,” said Yalkun Uluyol, a Xinjiang native and one of the report’s authors. Goods coming from Xinjiang “are a product of the exploitation of the land, of the resources and of the people,” he said.The report’s researchers identified numerous documents — including Chinese-language corporate filings, government announcements and ocean import records — indicating that international brands, at the very least, have multiple potential exposures to programs in Xinjiang that the U.S. government now defines as forced labor.Dr. Murphy said her team had identified nearly 100 Chinese companies mining, processing or manufacturing materials for the automotive industry operating in the Uyghur region, at least 38 of which had publicized their engagement in repressive state-sponsored labor programs through their social media accounts, corporate reports or other channels.International automakers contacted by The Times did not contradict the report but said they were committed to policing their supply chains against human rights abuses and forced labor.G.M., Volkswagen and Mercedes said their supplier codes of conduct prohibited forced labor. Honda said its suppliers were required to follow global sustainability guidelines. Ford said it maintained processes to ensure that its global operations, including in China, complied with all relevant laws and regulations.Toyota, in a statement, said, “We expect our business partners and suppliers to follow our lead to respect and not infringe upon human rights.”Tesla did not respond to repeated requests for comment.The Chinese government has insisted that there are no human rights violations in Xinjiang, and has called accusations of forced labor in Xinjiang “the lie of the century.”“‘Forced labor’ in Xinjiang is a lie deliberately made up and spread by the U.S. to shut China out of the global supply and industrial chains,” Liu Pengyu, the spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement.Some of the Chinese companies named in the report are enormous industry suppliers that have proudly advertised their role in carrying out the Chinese government’s policies toward Uyghurs in social media postings, or in glossy annual reports.They include China Baowu Steel Group, the world’s largest steel maker, which has a subsidiary in Xinjiang that accounts for at least 9 percent of its total steel production, according to the report. Baowu and its subsidiaries make springs for car suspension systems, axles and body panels, as well as various kinds of steel that feed the supply chains of most international carmakers.In its 2020 corporate social responsibility report, which pledges adherence to China’s leader and the Communist Party, Baowu Group said that its subsidiary had “fully implemented the party’s ethnic policy” and that 364 laborers from poor families from villages in southern Xinjiang had “been arranged with employment.” Human rights advocates say the terms are euphemisms for organized mass transfers of Uyghur laborers into factories.According to the report, Baowu Group subsidiaries have participated in other transfers of workers from poor regions of Xinjiang, and in so-called poverty alleviation programs, which the United States now recognizes as a guise for forced labor. Under the new law, companies that participate in such programs can be added to a blacklist that blocks the products they make anywhere — even outside Xinjiang — from coming to the United States.The new report also builds on a June investigation published by The Times into Xinjiang’s role in producing electric vehicle battery minerals like lithium and nickel, as well as previous research by a firm called Horizon Advisory into the aluminum industry in Xinjiang. The report identifies recent transfers of Uyghur laborers at some of the world’s biggest aluminum companies, and traces these products to major auto industry suppliers, some of whom made shipments to the United States, Canada or Europe as recently as November, shipping records show.It also documents ties to Xinjiang and transfers of Uyghur workers for dozens of other significant auto industry suppliers, such as Double Coin, a tire maker that sells widely in the United States, including online at Walmart and Amazon.And it documents a recent investment by CATL — a Chinese firm that produces roughly a third of the world’s electric vehicle batteries and supplies Tesla, Ford, G.M., Volkswagen and other brands — in a major new lithium processing company in Xinjiang.Zhang Yizhi, a spokesman for CATL, said the company was a minority shareholder in the Xinjiang company and was not involved in its operations or management. CATL is committed to building a responsible supply chain and strictly opposes and prohibits any form of forced labor in its suppliers, he said.Baowu Group, Double Coin and its parent, Shanghai Huayi Group, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Amazon declined to comment about its sale of Double Coin tires, while Walmart did not respond.The research suggests that the United States still has far to go in stopping the flow of goods linked to Xinjiang. Customs officials say they are working to enforce a ban on such products, but they are still hiring aggressively and working to build out the department’s capacity to identify and stop these goods.“We’re still in an upward trajectory,” said AnnMarie R. Highsmith, the executive assistant commissioner of the Office of Trade at Customs and Border Protection, in an interview in October.“Unfortunately,” she added, “the situation globally is such that we are going to have full employment for a while.” More

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    Could a Market Blowout Like the UK’s Happen in the US?

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    Federal Reserve and White House officials spent last week quizzing investors and economists about the risks of a British-style meltdown at home.WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve researchers and officials quizzed experts from Wall Street and around the world last week about a pressing question: Could a market meltdown like the one that happened in Britain late last month occur here?The answer they got back, according to four people at separate institutions who were in such conversations and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private meetings, was that it probably could — though a crash does not appear to be imminent. As the Biden administration did its own research into the potential for a meltdown, other market participants relayed the same message: The risk of a financial crisis has grown as central banks have sharply raised interest rates.The Bank of England had to swoop in to buy bonds and soothe markets after the British government released a fiscal spending plan that would have stimulated an economy already struggling with punishing inflation, one that included little detail on how it would be paid for. Markets lurched, and pension funds using a common investment strategy found themselves scrambling to adjust, prompting the central bank’s intervention.While the shock was British-specific, the violent reaction has caused economists around the world to wonder if the situation was a canary in a coal mine as signs of financial stress surface around the globe.Officials at the Fed, Treasury and White House are among those trying to figure out whether the United States could experience its own market-shuddering meltdown, one that could prove costly for households while complicating America’s battle against rapid inflation.Administration officials remain confident that the U.S. financial system is unlikely to see such a shock and is strong enough to withstand one if it comes. But both they and the Fed are keeping close tabs on what is happening at a moment when conditions feel abnormally fragile.Markets have been choppy for months in the United States and globally as central banks — including the Fed — rapidly raise interest rates to bring inflation under control. That has caused abnormally large price moves in currencies and other assets because their values hinge partly on the level of interest rates and on international rate differences. Stocks have been swinging. It can be hard to quickly find a buyer for U.S. government bonds, although the market is not breaking down. And in corners of finance that involve more complicated investment structures, there’s concern that volatility could trigger a dangerous chain reaction.“In the market, there is a lot of worry, and everyone is saying it feels like something is about to break,” said Roberto Perli, an economist at Piper Sandler who used to work at the Fed and who was not part of the conversations last week. He added that it made sense that officials were checking up on the situation.President Biden at an event promoting the Inflation Reduction Act in California last week.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesPresident Biden has repeatedly convened his top economic aides in recent weeks to discuss market flare-ups, like the one that roiled Britain.Fed officials and staff members have met with investors and economists both during normal outreach and on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings last week in Washington.Fed researchers asked about three big possibilities during the meetings. They wanted to know whether there could be a trade or an investment class in the United States similar to British pension funds that could pose a significant and underappreciated threat.They also focused on whether problems overseas could spill back over to the United States financial system. For instance, Japan is one of the biggest buyers of U.S. debt. But Japan’s currency is rapidly falling in value as the country holds its interest rates low, unlike other central banks. If that turmoil caused Japan to reverse course and stop buying or even sell U.S. Treasurys — something that it has signaled little appetite for, but that some on Wall Street see as a risk — it could have ramifications for U.S. debt markets.The final threat they asked about focused on whether today’s lack of easy trading in the Treasury market could turn into a more serious problem that requires the Fed to swoop in to restore normal functioning..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.None of those areas appear to be at immediate risk of snapping, analysts told officials. The pension system in the United States is different from that in Britain, and the government debt market may be choppy, but it is still functioning.Yet they also voiced reasons for concern: It is impossible to know what might break until something does. Markets are large and intertwined, and comprehensive data is hard to come by. Given how much central bank policy has shifted around the world in recent months, something could easily go wrong.There is a good reason for officials to fret about that possibility: A market meltdown now would be especially problematic.A New York City market. The Fed is rapidly raising interest rates to bring inflation under control, but a financial crash could force it to shift that plan.Elias Williams for The New York TimesA financial disaster could force the Fed to deviate from its plan to control the fastest inflation in four decades, which includes raising rates rapidly and allowing its bond portfolio to shrink. Officials have in the past bought large sums of Treasury bonds in order to restore stability to flailing markets — essentially the opposite of their policy today.Central bankers would most likely try to draw a distinction between bond buying meant to keep the market functioning and monetary policy, but that could be hard to communicate.The White House, too, has reasons to worry. Mr. Biden was scarred by his experience as vice president throughout the Great Recession, during which a financial meltdown brought on the worst downturn since the 1930s, throwing millions out of work and consuming the Obama administration’s policy agenda for years of a painstakingly slow recovery.Mr. Biden has pressed his team to estimate the likelihood that the United States could experience another 2008-style shock on Wall Street. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and her deputies have been closely monitoring developments in the market for U.S. government debt and searching for any signs of British-style stress.While administration officials noted that trading has become more difficult in the market for Treasury bonds, they also pointed out that it was otherwise functioning well. Multiple officials said this week that they expected the Fed would step in to buy bonds — as the Bank of England did — in an emergency.Other administration officials came away from their meetings in Washington last week with increased worries about financial crises sprouting in so-called emerging markets, like parts of Africa, Asia and South America, where food and energy prices have soared and where the Fed’s steady march of interest rate increases has forced governments to raise their own borrowing costs. Such crises could spread worldwide and rebound on wealthier countries like the United States.Yet administration officials say the American economy remains strong enough to endure any such shocks, buoyed by still-rapid job growth and relatively low household debt.“This is a challenging global economic moment where stability is hard to find,” said Michael Pyle, Mr. Biden’s deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs, “but the U.S. has momentum and resilience behind its economic recovery, and a trajectory that puts the U.S. in a strong position to weather these global challenges.”And there is no guarantee that something will blow up. A senior Treasury official said this week that financial risks had risen with high inflation and rising interest rates, but that a variety of data the department tracked continued to show strength in American businesses, households and financial institutions.For now, markets for short-term borrowing, which are crucial to the functioning of finance overall, look healthy and fairly normal, said Joseph Abate, a managing director at Barclays. And officials are working on safeguards to stem the fallout if a disaster should come. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which Ms. Yellen leads, discussed the issues at its most recent meeting this month, hearing staff presentations on U.S. financial vulnerabilities.The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, an advisory group of market participants, has been asked in its latest questionnaire about a possible Treasury program to buy back government debt. Some investors have taken that as a signal that they are worried about a possible problem and may want to be able to improve market functioning, especially in light of their comments and outreach.“We are worried about a loss of adequate liquidity in the market,” Ms. Yellen said last week while answering questions after a speech in Washington.And the Fed already has outstanding tools that can help to stabilize markets. Those include swap lines that can funnel dollars to banks that need it overseas, and that have been used by Switzerland and the European Central Bank in recent weeks.Mr. Abate at Barclays said the Securities and Exchange Commission, Treasury and Fed seemed to be “on top of” the situation.“It’s clear in the marketplace that liquidity is a concern,” he said. “The regulators are moving to address that.” More