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    in Economy

    BLS Data on Jobs and Consumer Prices Faces a Test of Trust

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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks prices and employment, faces scrutiny after several missteps. Some questions have gone unanswered.It has been a rough year for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The agency — which produces key numbers on inflation, unemployment and other aspects of the economy — has made a series of missteps in recent months, including a premature release of the Consumer Price Index.That has prompted questions about how the bureau, which is part of the Labor Department, shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street insiders who can profit from it. The agency’s inspector general is looking into the incidents. So is at least one congressional committee.At the same time, the bureau — like other statistical agencies in the United States and around the world — is facing long-running challenges: shrinking budgets, declining response rates to its surveys, shifting economic patterns in the wake of the pandemic and increased public skepticism of its numbers, at times stoked by political leaders including former President Donald J. Trump.Economists and other experts say the bureau’s data remains reliable, and they praise the agency’s efforts to ensure its numbers are accurate and free of political bias. But they say the recent problems threaten to undermine confidence in the agency, and in government statistics more broadly.“A statistical agency lives or dies by trust,” said Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the Obama administration. Once that trust is lost, she added, “it’s very hard to restore it.”The agency recognizes that threat, its current leader says, and is taking it seriously.“We are under more scrutiny because the environment around the agency has changed,” Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the bureau, said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier

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    The Labor Department issued revised figures for the 12 months through March that point to greater economic fragility.The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than previously reported, a sign that cracks in the labor market are more severe — and began forming earlier — than initially believed.On Wednesday, the Labor Department said monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which monthly estimates, based on surveys, are reconciled with more accurate but less timely records from state unemployment offices. The new figures, once they’re made final, will be incorporated into official government employment statistics early next year.The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists’ warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn’t affected by the revisions, suggests job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising.Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to the signs of erosion as they weigh when and how much to begin lowering interest rates. In a speech in Alaska on Tuesday, Michelle W. Bowman, a Fed governor, highlighted “risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating,” although she also said the increase in the unemployment rate could be overstating the extent of the slowdown.This year’s revision was unusually large. Over the previous decade, the annual updates had added or subtracted an average of about 173,000 jobs. Still, substantial updates are hardly without precedent. Job growth for the year ending March 2019, for example, was revised down by 489,000, or about 20 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Americans Growing Worried About Losing Their Jobs, Labor Survey Shows

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    The New York Fed’s labor market survey showed cracks just as Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, prepares for a closely watched Friday speech.Americans are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday showed, a worrying sign at a moment when economists and central bankers are warily monitoring for cracks in the job market.The New York Fed’s July survey of labor market expectations showed that the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4 percent on average, up from 3.9 percent a year earlier and the highest in data going back to 2014.In fact, the new data showed signs of the labor market cracking across a range of metrics. People reported leaving or losing jobs, marked down their salary expectations and increasingly thought that they would need to work past traditional retirement ages. The share of workers who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks jumped to 28.4 percent — the highest level since the data started — up from 19.4 percent in July 2023.The survey, which quizzes a nationally representative sample of people on their recent economic experience, suggested that meaningful fissures may be forming in the labor market. While it is just one report, it comes at a tense moment, as economists and central bankers watch nervously for signs that the job market is taking a turn for the worse.The unemployment rate has moved up notably over the past year, climbing to 4.3 percent in July. That has put many economy watchers on edge. The jobless rate rarely moves up as sharply as it has recently outside of an economic recession.But the slowdown in the labor market has not been widely backed up by other data. Jobless claims have moved up but remain relatively low. Consumer spending remains robust, with both overall retail sales data and company earnings reports suggesting that shoppers continue to open their wallets.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares199 Views

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    Stock Markets Signal Recession Fears. Here’s the Economic Outlook.

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    The economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a downturn since the pandemic recovery began. Now signs of strength contend with shakier readings.The U.S. economy has spent three years defying expectations. It emerged from the pandemic shock more quickly and more powerfully than many experts envisioned. It proved resilient in the face of both inflation and the higher interest rates the Federal Reserve used to combat it. The prospect many forecasters once considered imminent — a recession — looked increasingly like a false alarm.Until now.An unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday — showing slower hiring in July, and a surprising jump in unemployment — triggered a sell-off in the stock market as investors worried that an economic downturn might be underway after all. By Monday, that decline had turned into a rout, with financial markets tumbling around the world.

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    The number of jobs added in July was the second smallest monthly gain in years.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    The unemployment rate in July rose to the highest level since October 2021.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesSome economists said investors were overreacting to one weak but hardly disastrous report, since many indicators show the economy on fundamentally firm footing.But they said there were also reasons to worry. Historically, increases in joblessness like the one in July — the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021 — have been a reliable indicator of a recession. And even without that precedent, there has been evidence that the labor market is weakening.

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    The Sahm Rule indicator suggests a recession might have already begun.
    Data is seasonally adjusted and shows the change in the U.S. unemployment rate compared with the low point in the previous 12 months. All calculations based on three-month moving average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    July Jobs Report: What to Know

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    The American job market significantly slowed in July, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 114,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent.The job gains were smaller than projected.Here’s what else to know:Easing wage growth: Wages rose by 0.2 percent in July compared with the previous month and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Wage growth has been moderating for more than two years, as the intense competition to hire and retain workers has slackened. But several employers said in interviews that pressure to raise wages was still there.The Fed is watching closely: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 5.3 percent at its meeting this week, but Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said a rate cut “could be on the table” at its next gathering in September, depending on the data. As Fed officials continue trying to bring down inflation by keeping interest rates elevated, they have also underscored that the central bank’s goal is to maintain a healthy labor market. More

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    in Economy

    Seeking Your First Job After College? Share Your Story.

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    The New York Times wants to hear from recent college graduates, other young job seekers and hiring managers about this year’s job market.The economy is growing. Unemployment is low. But the job market is not as hot as it used to be, and younger applicants, with or without college degrees, are feeling the pinch. Hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class are below last year’s, and the downturn is particularly notable in fields like finance, insurance, marketing and real estate.I cover economics at The New York Times, and I would like to hear from recent college graduates and other young job seekers, as well as hiring managers, about what the job market has looked like to them this year.Your responses will help us gain a fuller, more nuanced understanding of how the broader trends are being felt — or, in some cases, overcome.We’ll read every response, and we’ll reach out to some people to learn more. We won’t publish your name or any part of your submission without hearing back from you and verifying your story. And we won’t share your contact information outside the Times newsroom. If you prefer to share tips or thoughts confidentially, you can do so here.Our first set of questions are for job seekers, and then we have questions for hiring managers.Tell us about your recent experience in seeking work — or workers. More

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    Is the Labor Market About to Crack? It’s the Key Question for the Fed.

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    Central bankers are paying more attention to the strength of the job market as inflation cools. But it’s a tough time to gauge its resilience.David Gurley Jr.’s bank account benefited from a hot pandemic labor market. Mr. Gurley, a video game programmer, switched jobs twice in quick succession, boosting his salary and nabbing a fully remote position.By late last year, he was worried that a pullback in the tech industry could make his job precarious. But when it comes to the outlook now, “it seems like things are more or less OK,” Mr. Gurley, 35, said. Opportunities for rapid wage gains are not as widespread and some layoffs have happened, but he feels he could find a job if he needed one.Mr. Gurley’s experience — a rip-roaring labor market, then a wobbly one and now some semblance of normality — is the kind of postpandemic roller-coaster ride that many Americans have encountered. After breakneck hiring and wage growth in 2022 and 2023, conditions have moderated. Now economic officials are trying to figure out whether the labor market is settling into a new holding pattern or is poised to take a turn for the worse.The answer will be pivotal for the future of Federal Reserve policy.Central bankers spent 2022 and 2023 focused mainly on wrestling rapid inflation under control. They have left interest rates unchanged at 5.3 percent for more than a year now and are likely to keep them there at their meeting this week, making money expensive to borrow in a bid to restrain consumer demand and weigh down the overall economy.But now that inflation is returning to normal, officials are again concentrating keenly on their second major goal: maintaining a strong job market. They are trying to strike a careful balance in which they fully stamp out inflation without causing unemployment to spike in the process.The labor market still looks solid. Joblessness is low by historical standards, and claims for unemployment insurance have stabilized after moving up earlier this year. A fresh jobs report set for release Friday is expected to show that employers continued to hire in July, albeit at a slower pace.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Child Care Costs Challenge Women’s Gains in Work Force

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    Participation in the labor force has surged among women in their prime working years. But for those with children under 5, the gains may have peaked.Jessica Cuevas loved her job as a college counselor at a high school. But after giving birth to a son in January 2021, she switched to a remote corporate job at a grocery store chain because it gave her more flexibility and saved her commuting time. After her second son was born two years later, she quit that job, too.She had been relying on her mother for help, but her parents have been spending more time in Mexico, leaving her without an affordable and reliable child care option.Ms. Cuevas, who is 35 and lives in Chicago, works part time from home for an education nonprofit, though the work is sporadic and the pay is inconsistent. She wants a full-time job — in part so she and her husband can buy a bigger house — but she is concerned that the expense of child care would wipe out any financial upside.“I feel like right now, considering the economy, considering just the cost of living, we feel stuck,” she said.The share of women in their prime working years who are in the labor force has reached new highs coming out of the pandemic, hitting a record 78.1 percent in May.But there are signs that the labor force participation gains among women with children under 5 has plateaued since September, according to an analysis from the Hamilton Project, an economic policy research group at the Brookings Institution.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More