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    in Economy

    U.S. Job Market Shifts to Lower Gear

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    Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, fewer than economists had expected, and previous months were revised downward.The labor market appears to be treading water, with employers’ desire to hire staying just ahead of the supply of workers looking for jobs.That’s the picture that emerges from the August jobs report, released on Friday, which offered evidence that while softer than it has been in years, the landscape for employment remains healthy, with wages still growing and Americans still eager to work.“This report does not indicate that we’re taking another step toward a recession, but we’re still seeing further signs of cooling,” said Sam Kuhn, an economist with the recruitment software company Appcast. “We’re trending more closely to a 2019 labor market, than the labor market in 2010 or 2011.”Employers added 142,000 positions last month, the Labor Department reported. That was somewhat fewer than forecast, bringing the three-month average to 116,000 jobs after the two prior summer months were revised down significantly. Over the year before June, the monthly average was 220,000, although that number is expected to shrink when annual revisions are finalized next year.The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, alleviating concerns that it was on a steep upward trajectory after July’s jump to 4.3 percent, which appears to have been driven by weather-related temporary layoffs.In other signs of stability, the average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours and wages grew 0.4 percent over the month, slightly more than economists had expected but not enough to add significant fuel to inflation.Wages Are Outpacing InflationYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    in Economy

    Job Hunting Is a Challenge for Recent College Grads

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    Unemployment is still low, but job seekers are competing for fewer openings, and hiring is sluggish. That’s a big turnaround from recent years.For much of the last three years, employers were fighting one another for workers. Now the tables have turned a bit. Few employers are firing. Layoff rates remain near record lows. But fewer employers are hiring.That has left job seekers, employed or unemployed, competing for limited openings. And younger, less experienced applicants — even those with freshly obtained college degrees — have been feeling left out.A spring survey of employers by the National Association of Colleges and Employers found that hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class were below last year’s. And it showed that finance, insurance and real estate organizations were planning a 14.5 percent decrease in hiring this year, a sharp U-turn from its 16.7 percent increase last year.Separately, the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the overall pace of hiring in professional and business services — a go-to for many young graduates — is down to levels not seen since 2009.For recent graduates, ages 22 to 27, rates of unemployment and underemployment (defined as the share of graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree) have risen slightly since 2023, according to government data.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    BLS Data on Jobs and Consumer Prices Faces a Test of Trust

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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks prices and employment, faces scrutiny after several missteps. Some questions have gone unanswered.It has been a rough year for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The agency — which produces key numbers on inflation, unemployment and other aspects of the economy — has made a series of missteps in recent months, including a premature release of the Consumer Price Index.That has prompted questions about how the bureau, which is part of the Labor Department, shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street insiders who can profit from it. The agency’s inspector general is looking into the incidents. So is at least one congressional committee.At the same time, the bureau — like other statistical agencies in the United States and around the world — is facing long-running challenges: shrinking budgets, declining response rates to its surveys, shifting economic patterns in the wake of the pandemic and increased public skepticism of its numbers, at times stoked by political leaders including former President Donald J. Trump.Economists and other experts say the bureau’s data remains reliable, and they praise the agency’s efforts to ensure its numbers are accurate and free of political bias. But they say the recent problems threaten to undermine confidence in the agency, and in government statistics more broadly.“A statistical agency lives or dies by trust,” said Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the Obama administration. Once that trust is lost, she added, “it’s very hard to restore it.”The agency recognizes that threat, its current leader says, and is taking it seriously.“We are under more scrutiny because the environment around the agency has changed,” Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the bureau, said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier

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    The Labor Department issued revised figures for the 12 months through March that point to greater economic fragility.The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than previously reported, a sign that cracks in the labor market are more severe — and began forming earlier — than initially believed.On Wednesday, the Labor Department said monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which monthly estimates, based on surveys, are reconciled with more accurate but less timely records from state unemployment offices. The new figures, once they’re made final, will be incorporated into official government employment statistics early next year.The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists’ warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn’t affected by the revisions, suggests job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising.Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to the signs of erosion as they weigh when and how much to begin lowering interest rates. In a speech in Alaska on Tuesday, Michelle W. Bowman, a Fed governor, highlighted “risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating,” although she also said the increase in the unemployment rate could be overstating the extent of the slowdown.This year’s revision was unusually large. Over the previous decade, the annual updates had added or subtracted an average of about 173,000 jobs. Still, substantial updates are hardly without precedent. Job growth for the year ending March 2019, for example, was revised down by 489,000, or about 20 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Americans Growing Worried About Losing Their Jobs, Labor Survey Shows

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    The New York Fed’s labor market survey showed cracks just as Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, prepares for a closely watched Friday speech.Americans are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday showed, a worrying sign at a moment when economists and central bankers are warily monitoring for cracks in the job market.The New York Fed’s July survey of labor market expectations showed that the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4 percent on average, up from 3.9 percent a year earlier and the highest in data going back to 2014.In fact, the new data showed signs of the labor market cracking across a range of metrics. People reported leaving or losing jobs, marked down their salary expectations and increasingly thought that they would need to work past traditional retirement ages. The share of workers who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks jumped to 28.4 percent — the highest level since the data started — up from 19.4 percent in July 2023.The survey, which quizzes a nationally representative sample of people on their recent economic experience, suggested that meaningful fissures may be forming in the labor market. While it is just one report, it comes at a tense moment, as economists and central bankers watch nervously for signs that the job market is taking a turn for the worse.The unemployment rate has moved up notably over the past year, climbing to 4.3 percent in July. That has put many economy watchers on edge. The jobless rate rarely moves up as sharply as it has recently outside of an economic recession.But the slowdown in the labor market has not been widely backed up by other data. Jobless claims have moved up but remain relatively low. Consumer spending remains robust, with both overall retail sales data and company earnings reports suggesting that shoppers continue to open their wallets.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Stock Markets Signal Recession Fears. Here’s the Economic Outlook.

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    The economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a downturn since the pandemic recovery began. Now signs of strength contend with shakier readings.The U.S. economy has spent three years defying expectations. It emerged from the pandemic shock more quickly and more powerfully than many experts envisioned. It proved resilient in the face of both inflation and the higher interest rates the Federal Reserve used to combat it. The prospect many forecasters once considered imminent — a recession — looked increasingly like a false alarm.Until now.An unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday — showing slower hiring in July, and a surprising jump in unemployment — triggered a sell-off in the stock market as investors worried that an economic downturn might be underway after all. By Monday, that decline had turned into a rout, with financial markets tumbling around the world.

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    The number of jobs added in July was the second smallest monthly gain in years.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    The unemployment rate in July rose to the highest level since October 2021.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesSome economists said investors were overreacting to one weak but hardly disastrous report, since many indicators show the economy on fundamentally firm footing.But they said there were also reasons to worry. Historically, increases in joblessness like the one in July — the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021 — have been a reliable indicator of a recession. And even without that precedent, there has been evidence that the labor market is weakening.

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    The Sahm Rule indicator suggests a recession might have already begun.
    Data is seasonally adjusted and shows the change in the U.S. unemployment rate compared with the low point in the previous 12 months. All calculations based on three-month moving average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    July Jobs Report: What to Know

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    The American job market significantly slowed in July, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 114,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent.The job gains were smaller than projected.Here’s what else to know:Easing wage growth: Wages rose by 0.2 percent in July compared with the previous month and 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Wage growth has been moderating for more than two years, as the intense competition to hire and retain workers has slackened. But several employers said in interviews that pressure to raise wages was still there.The Fed is watching closely: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 5.3 percent at its meeting this week, but Jerome H. Powell, the Fed’s chair, said a rate cut “could be on the table” at its next gathering in September, depending on the data. As Fed officials continue trying to bring down inflation by keeping interest rates elevated, they have also underscored that the central bank’s goal is to maintain a healthy labor market. More

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    in Economy

    Seeking Your First Job After College? Share Your Story.

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    The New York Times wants to hear from recent college graduates, other young job seekers and hiring managers about this year’s job market.The economy is growing. Unemployment is low. But the job market is not as hot as it used to be, and younger applicants, with or without college degrees, are feeling the pinch. Hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class are below last year’s, and the downturn is particularly notable in fields like finance, insurance, marketing and real estate.I cover economics at The New York Times, and I would like to hear from recent college graduates and other young job seekers, as well as hiring managers, about what the job market has looked like to them this year.Your responses will help us gain a fuller, more nuanced understanding of how the broader trends are being felt — or, in some cases, overcome.We’ll read every response, and we’ll reach out to some people to learn more. We won’t publish your name or any part of your submission without hearing back from you and verifying your story. And we won’t share your contact information outside the Times newsroom. If you prefer to share tips or thoughts confidentially, you can do so here.Our first set of questions are for job seekers, and then we have questions for hiring managers.Tell us about your recent experience in seeking work — or workers. More