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    Child Care Costs Challenge Women’s Gains in Work Force

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    Participation in the labor force has surged among women in their prime working years. But for those with children under 5, the gains may have peaked.Jessica Cuevas loved her job as a college counselor at a high school. But after giving birth to a son in January 2021, she switched to a remote corporate job at a grocery store chain because it gave her more flexibility and saved her commuting time. After her second son was born two years later, she quit that job, too.She had been relying on her mother for help, but her parents have been spending more time in Mexico, leaving her without an affordable and reliable child care option.Ms. Cuevas, who is 35 and lives in Chicago, works part time from home for an education nonprofit, though the work is sporadic and the pay is inconsistent. She wants a full-time job — in part so she and her husband can buy a bigger house — but she is concerned that the expense of child care would wipe out any financial upside.“I feel like right now, considering the economy, considering just the cost of living, we feel stuck,” she said.The share of women in their prime working years who are in the labor force has reached new highs coming out of the pandemic, hitting a record 78.1 percent in May.But there are signs that the labor force participation gains among women with children under 5 has plateaued since September, according to an analysis from the Hamilton Project, an economic policy research group at the Brookings Institution.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Job Growth Extends Streak, but Signs of Concern Emerge

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    A gain of 206,000 in June exceeded forecasts. Hiring was concentrated in a few parts of the economy, however, and unemployment rose to 4.1 percent.Halfway through the year, and four years removed from the downturn set off by the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. job engine is still cruising — even if it shows increased signs of downshifting.Employers delivered another solid month of hiring in June, the Labor Department reported on Friday, adding 206,000 jobs in the 42nd consecutive month of job growth.At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a point to 4.1 percent, up from 4 percent and surpassing 4 percent for the first time since November 2021.The gain in jobs was slightly greater than most analysts had forecast. But totals for the two previous months were revised downward, and the uptick in unemployment was unexpected. That has led many economists and investors to shift from having full faith in the jobs market to having some concern for it.“These numbers are good numbers,” said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist for New Century Advisors, cautioning against overly negative interpretations of the report.But “the importance of the unemployment rate is it can actually tell us a bit about where we might be going,” she added, noting that the rate had been drifting up since hitting a half-century low of 3.4 percent early last year.Wage growth slowed in JuneYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Investors Bet on Rate Cuts as Recent Data Suggests Slowdown

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    Investors are poised for a report on Friday to show a slowdown in the pace of hiring in June, building on weak services and manufacturing data, and to firm up their expectations of interest rate cuts starting as soon as September.Signs of lower rates in the near future, which would make it cheaper for consumers and companies to borrow, have typically been accompanied by market rallies.Stock indexes tracking larger companies have been buoyed in recent weeks. The S&P 500 has repeatedly set fresh records and is up more than 16 percent this year. However, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies that are more sensitive to the ebb and flow of the economy, has largely flatlined, with weaker economic data this week nudging the index 0.5 percent lower ahead of the Independence Day holiday.Economists are forecasting that the June jobs report will show a healthy labor market, albeit with fewer jobs added and an easing in wage growth. Earlier this week, widely watched surveys of manufacturing and services activity both came in lower than forecast.Coupled with signs of cooling inflation, a deceleration in economic growth would give the Federal Reserve a justification for cutting rates, which have been held at high levels for months.Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a conference this week that if the economic data continued to come in as it has recently, the Fed could consider cutting interest rates.“We’ve made quite a bit of progress in bringing inflation back down to our target, while the labor market has remained strong and growth has continued,” Mr. Powell said. “We want that process to continue.”Mr. Powell didn’t specify when the Fed would start to cut rates but investors are forecasting that it will take action in September, with roughly two quarter-point cuts expected for the year. Those bets have increased from the start of the week, when a cut in September was seen as more of a 50/50 proposition.The data has come in “a bit weaker than expected,” noted analysts at Deutsche Bank, “and it all added to the theme that the economy was losing momentum as we arrive in the second half of the year.” More

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    Get Ready for the Debate Like an Economics Pro

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    What you need to know about the economy before Thursday’s showdown between President Biden and Donald J. Trump.President Biden.Doug Mills/The New York TimesFormer President Donald J. Trump.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesMany of the issues likely to dominate Thursday’s televised debate between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump boil down to economics.Inflation, immigration, government taxing and spending, interest rates, and trade relationships could all take center stage — and both candidates could make sweeping claims about them, as they regularly do at campaign events and other public appearances.Given that, it could be handy to go into the event with an understanding of where the economic data stand now and what the latest research says. Below is a rundown of some of today’s hot-button topics and the context you need to follow along like a pro.Inflation has been high, but it’s slowing.Inflation jumped during the pandemic and its aftermath for a few reasons. The government had pumped more than $5 trillion into the economy in response to Covid, first under Mr. Trump and then under Mr. Biden.As families received stimulus checks and built up savings amid pandemic lockdowns, they began to spend their money on goods like cars and home gym equipment. That burst of demand for physical products collided with factory shutdowns around the world and snarls in shipping routes.Shortages for everything from furniture parts and bicycles to computer chips for cars began to crop up, and prices started to jump in 2021 as a lot of money chased too few goods.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Adds 272,000 Jobs in May, an Unexpectedly Strong Pace of Hiring

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    Hiring was unexpectedly robust in May, with a gain of 272,000 jobs, but it wasn’t all good news: The unemployment rate ticked up, to 4 percent.The U.S. economy keeps throwing curveballs, and the May employment report is the latest example.Employers added 272,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, well above what economists had expected as hiring had gradually slowed. That’s an increase from the 232,000-job average over the previous 12 months, scrambling the picture of an economy that’s relaxing into a more sustainable pace.Most concerning for the Federal Reserve, which meets next week and again in July, wages rose 4.1 percent from a year ago — a sign that inflation might not yet be vanquished.“For those who may have thought they would see a July rate cut, that door has largely been shut,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist for U.S. Bank. Although wage gains are good for workers, she noted, persistent price increases undermine their spending power.Stocks fell shortly after the report was published, then recovered most of their losses by the end of the day. Government bond yields, which track expectations for Fed rate moves, rose sharply and remained elevated through the trading day.Wage growth ticked up in MayYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    What to Make of the Jobs Report’s Mixed Signals

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    Sometimes, the many numbers included in the government’s monthly jobs report come together to paint a clear, coherent picture of the strength or weakness of the U.S. labor market.This is not one of those times.Instead, the data released by the Labor Department on Friday was a mess of conflicting signals. It couldn’t even agree on the most basic of questions: whether the economy is adding or losing jobs.The report showed that employers added 272,000 nonagricultural jobs in May, far more than forecasters were expecting. That figure is based on a survey of about 119,000 businesses, nonprofit organizations and government agencies.But the report also contains data from another survey, of about 60,000 households. That data showed that the number of people who were employed last month actually fell by 408,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent for the first time in more than two years.The two surveys measure slightly different things. The employer survey includes only employees, for example, while the household survey includes independent contractors and self-employed workers. But that doesn’t explain the discrepancy last month: Adjusting the household survey to align with the concepts used in the employer survey makes the job losses in May look larger, not smaller.That means that the conflicting pictures come down to some combination of measurement error and random noise. That is frustrating but not unusual: Over the long term, the two surveys generally tell similar stories, but over shorter periods they frequently diverge.Economists typically put more weight on the employer survey, which is much larger and is generally viewed as more reliable. But they aren’t sure which data to believe this time around. Some economists have argued that the household survey could be failing to capture fully the recent wave of immigration, leading it to undercount employment growth. But others have argued that the employer survey could be overstating hiring because it isn’t accounting properly for recent business failures, among other factors. More

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    U.S. Job Market Eases, but Hiring Remains Firm

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    Employers added 175,000 jobs in April, a milder pace than in the winter months, though layoffs have remained low and most sectors appear stable.The American job market may be shifting into a lower gear this spring, a turn that economists have expected for months after a vigorous rebound from the pandemic shock.Employers added 175,000 positions in April, the Labor Department reported Friday, undershooting forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9 percent.A less torrid expansion after the 242,000-job average over the prior 12 months isn’t necessarily bad news, given that layoffs have remained low and most sectors appear stable.“It’s not a bad economy; it’s still a healthy economy,” said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association. “I think it’s part of the cycle. We cannot continue robust growth indefinitely considering the limits of our economy.”The labor market has defied projections of a considerable slowdown for over a year in the face of a rapid escalation in borrowing costs, a minor banking crisis and two major wars. But economic growth declined markedly in the first quarter, suggesting that the exuberance of the last two years might be settling into a more sustainable rhythm.Year-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More