Holidays and Special Occasions

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Walmart Holiday Shopping Plans Are Laid Months Before Black Friday

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To prepare for ever-longer shopping season, thousands of employees were assembled for a retail jamboree in Florida’s August heat.It felt like calculated chaos inside the chilly convention center where Walmart had recreated one of its Supercenter stores. It was late August in Orlando, Fla., and the retailer had flown in thousands of workers to have a look. They were zipping around, trying to take it all in.There were dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and poinsettias, rows of Halloween candy, and racks of knit dresses and sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced around the toy section, while wacky inflatable ghosts and foxes hovered above the inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. Along the way, Walmart workers were chowing down on samples of pulled pork and chips, Oreo cookies and ice cream.A candy cane door frame welcomed people to the North Pole — and into Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer was trying to set the mood for holidays that were still months off. But foremost on the agenda for the 6,700 attendees was Walmart’s slate of fall and winter events.Beyond the festive mood, the holiday season is full of high stakes. It’s the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offer insights into consumer behavior and the state of the retail industry.Last year, Walmart began to see people starting their holiday shopping in earnest around Halloween.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Holiday Spending Increased, Defying Fears of a Decline

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    While the pace of growth slowed, spending stayed strong because of robust job growth and strong wage gains.Despite lingering inflation, Americans increased their spending this holiday season, early data shows. That comes as a big relief for retailers that had spent much of the year fearing the economy would soon weaken and consumer spending would fall.Retail sales increased 3.1 percent from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to data Mastercard released on Tuesday. The credit card company’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation.Spending increased across many categories, with restaurants experiencing one of the largest jumps, 7.8 percent. Apparel increased 2.4 percent, and groceries also had gains.The holiday sales figures, driven by a healthy labor market and wage gains, suggests that the economy remains strong. The Federal Reserve’s campaign to rein in high inflation by raising interest rates over the last few years has slowed the economy, but many economists believe a so-called soft landing is within reach.“What we’re seeing during this holiday season is very consistent with how we’re thinking about the economy, which is that it’s an economy that is still very much expanding,” said Michelle Meyer, Mastercard’s chief economist.Solid job growth is allowing people to spend more. And even though consumer prices have risen a lot in the last two years, wages have grown faster on the whole.“We’re now entering the period, and we’re seeing it to some extent during the holiday season, where consumers have built up real purchasing power,” Ms. Meyer said.Still spending in categories like electronics and jewelry declined this season. And the rate of growth in spending has moderated from the last couple of years. In 2022, retail sales during the holiday season increased 5.4 percent, according to the National Retail Federation. In 2021, they rose 12.7 percent, the largest percentage increase in at least 20 years. Online sales growth has also slowed in 2023, increasing 6.3 percent compared with 10.6 percent from 2021 to 2022, according to Mastercard.While the economy is strong overall, Americans are being more mindful of how they’re spending, and that discretion shaped the shopping season.Some retailers had expressed concerns in recent months that shoppers appeared glum and fearful about the economy. Walmart and Target noted that shoppers seemed to be waiting for sales before buying, a change from recent years when they spent more freely.“The caution that they’ve taken on their spend and where they’re spending has been really noticeable in the second half of the year, where a lot of customers have been affected, especially lower-income and middle-income” people, said Jessica Ramírez, a retail research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates.In a return to some of the trends that prevailed before the pandemic, many retailers and brands offered promotions. Discounts were in the 30 to 50 percent range, Ms. Ramírez said. But the discounts were more targeted this year than last because fewer companies were saddled with gluts of inventory.Retail sales increased this holiday season compared with the same period a year earlier, though at a slower pace than last year.Maansi Srivastava/The New York TimesThe categories that have faced falling sales this year — like electronics, home furnishings and toys — saw some of the biggest discounts leading up to Christmas. Those goods had enjoyed booming sales during the pandemic.Alexan Weir, a 30-year-old mother in Orlando, Fla., said she was pleased to find deals on toys when she bought Christmas gifts for her daughters this month. Among the items she bought at Target were the Asha doll, based on the main character from the Disney movie “Wish”; an Elsa doll from “Frozen”; and a Minnie Mouse kitchen set. With discounts, the items together cost about half as much as their total list prices of $200.“As a parent you’re just trying to make your kids happy. You’re not trying to break the bank,” Ms. Weir said. “I spent a little bit more this year, but at least with the few sales that I received, I can say I was not heartbroken about how much I was spending.”Barbie — whose banner year was fueled by the blockbuster movie — sold particularly well in a year when there wasn’t a breakout toy. The doll and her many accouterments have been selling well at Mary Arnold Toys, a family-owned store on Manhattan’s Upper East Side. And overall sales at the shop have been steady, said Ezra Ishayik, who has run the store for 40 years.“It looks like it is about even with last year — not better, not worse,” Mr. Ishayik said. “The economy looks good to me. It’s decent, it’s OK, people are buying. We are on the high end of the industry so we don’t see any downtrend at all.”But the past few months have been more challenging for Modi Toys.Modi, an online retailer, sells plush toys and books based on Hindu culture and usually sees two sales bumps in the fourth quarter — one in the lead up to Diwali and another around Christmas.Normally the company brings in more than $100,000 in sales in the month before Diwali, which fell on Nov. 12, but this year sales dropped into the five-figure range. That was partly because the retailer launched a product too early and then had to offer hefty discounts to spur sales — something retailers try to avoid with new merchandise.“That’s when we knew that we really were going to have a challenging holiday season,” said Avani Modi Sarkar, a founder of the company.As she wraps up the year and looks toward 2024, Ms. Sarkar is testing new digital marketing strategies, including sending personalized email newsletters to customers and closely monitoring discounts.“We’re just trying to close the gap for us and not end the year with as big of a gap as we would have,” she said. “I know what we’re capable of, and I’m trying to not only get to that level again, but surpass it.”One clear sign that shoppers are being more careful about how much they spend comes from discount retailers. In November, Burlington, an off-price retailer, and the parent company of Marshalls and T.J. Maxx said they saw comparable store sales increase 6 percent.The online retailer ThriftBooks said its sales were also up this holiday season, by more than 20 percent in November and more than 24 percent this month compared with a year ago, according to Ken Goldstein, the company’s chief executive.“This was unprecedented,” Mr. Goldstein said. “This is beyond belief in terms of the volume that we’re doing. Because we’re a value product, I think a lot of people are putting their dollars to work.” More

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    As Holiday Shopping Season Begins, Retailers Worry

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    Consumer spending has been strong in 2023 despite higher prices and waning savings. But some retailers have jitters heading into Black Friday.Christina Beck is approaching this holiday season cautiously.Ms. Beck, a 58-year-old administrative director at a school, makes lists of gifts she plans to buy for her family and friends and sticks with it. But her spending this year will be kept in check by the high cost of food in grocery stores and restaurants, and the mortgage for a home in Minneapolis she bought last year with her best friend.That best friend, Kristin Aitchison, cannot wait for the holidays. Ms. Aitchison, 55, who works for a senior living home, advises her family each year that she plans to make the holidays smaller, spending less. And every year, she spends more than she did the year before.“I’m a huge gift giver,” Ms. Aitchison, who started her shopping in early November. “I have so much joy in giving gifts. I’m always running around the last week before Christmas because I have to find just a few more gifts.”There are many reasons for people to be more prudent in their holiday spending this year. While inflation is less rapid than it was a year ago, millions of shoppers still feel sticker shock when buying groceries. Payments on federal student loans, which were on pause during the pandemic, have resumed. And higher interest rates have meant larger credit card bills and, for home buyers, mortgage payments.Yet consumer spending has been surprisingly strong throughout 2023. For retailers, the question is whether people will continue to spend their way through the holiday season or decide this is the time to pull back.Predictions are murky. The National Retail Federation said it expected holiday sales to increase 3 to 4 percent from last year, without adjusting for inflation, on a par with the prepandemic 2019 season. But in a survey by the Conference Board, a nonprofit research group, consumers said they planned to spend an average of $985 on holiday-related items this year, down slightly from the $1,006 they anticipated spending last year.One closely watched early indicator, Amazon’s Prime Day in October, showed consumers were spending more, but only slightly. They spent an average of $144.53 on Prime Day, a 2 percent increase from the average the year before, according to Facteus, which analyzed credit and debit card transaction data.Last week, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales nationwide fell 0.1 percent in October from September, the first drop since March. Executives at Walmart also warned that consumer spending had weakened in the last two weeks in October, noting that people seemed to be waiting for sales.“It makes us more cautious on the consumer as we look into the fourth quarter,” John David Rainey, the chief financial officer of Walmart, said in an interview. “I think there’s likely more variability in the numbers.”Still, the retail sales pullback was smaller than the decline that many economists had expected after a very strong summer of spending, and some analysts saw it as a sign of continued consumer resilience.Holiday sales are likely to be decent by prepandemic standards, though not as strong as the gangbuster seasons in 2020 and 2021, said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.Higher-income shoppers still have plenty of extra savings built up during and after the pandemic, but those with lower incomes have more fully used up their resources, Mr. Quinlan said. Higher interest rates may also deter shoppers from putting holiday shopping on credit cards. The combination of reduced savings and higher rates “makes it tougher to have a big pile of presents under the tree this year,” he said.For much of the year, consumer spending has been underpinned by continued strength in the job market and wage gains. Average hourly earnings in October were up 4.1 percent from a year earlier. That was faster than inflation. As measured by the Consumer Price Index, prices were up 3.2 percent.Those factors have helped to keep retail sales climbing on a yearly basis.It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (for the Economy)Three decades of monthly retail spending show how important the holiday season is to our economy.Still, signs of slowing are beginning to show up. Wage growth is slowing, and the unemployment rate has risen over recent months. Like Mr. Quinlan, many economists think that consumers are getting closer to exhausting their savings, though some studies suggest that many have been drawing down their financial cushions only slowly.For many, the resumption of student-loan payments is putting a crimp in holiday spending plans. In a holiday survey by the consulting firm Deloitte, 17 percent of respondents said they had to resume student loan payments, and almost half of them said they planned to reduce their holiday spending as a result.In past years, Tara Cavanaugh, a 37-year-old marketing manager, spent as much as $1,500 on gifts for her family, friends and various office parties, she said. This year, after a move with her partner to Boulder, Colo., and the resumption of her $400-a-month student-loan payments — her partner also has student-loan debt — she said she was paring down her gift list and expected to spend closer to $200.Tara Cavanaugh outside her home in Boulder, Colo. She plans to pare down her gift list this year.Kevin Mohatt for The New York Times“We both make decent incomes and live simply, sharing an old car and our furniture is still from Ikea, but it still feels like we’re struggling,” Ms. Cavanaugh said of her and her partner. “I know a lot of us are feeling the pinch, so I’m not going to freak out about giving gifts to people who are older than me, are doing fine and don’t need anything.”As always, many people are looking for deals, whether on Black Friday or through other pre-Christmas sales. About 52 percent of consumers plan to watch for deals and special offers online and 39 percent plan to hunt for sales in stores this year, according to a survey by the research firm Forrester.When the Amazon toy catalog landed in Claire Kielich’s mailbox in Austin, Texas, her two daughters, ages 5 and 10, who also have birthdays in December, began circling what they wanted.“I’ll be watching to see if any of those things go on sale for Black Friday,” said Ms. Kielich, 40, who does product development and sourcing in the furniture industry. She said she expected to spend around $1,000 this holiday season and already had a stash of stocking stuffers hidden in one of her closets.Ms. Beck in Minneapolis started buying holiday gifts in July, making lists of what friends and family needed or liked, picking up unique items at local craft stores or from small local businesses and storing them in what she calls her “present drawer.” This approach, she said, helps her put more thought into her gifts and keeps her from spending beyond her budget.Her best friend, Ms. Aitchison, takes the opposite approach. While careful with her finances during the year, come the holidays she has no plan and, basically, no budget. Her oldest child has barred her from ever buying him another pair of corduroy pants. Last year, she bought four nine-foot-tall blow-up dinosaur costumes for her adult children.“Of course, nobody needs a blow-up dinosaur costume,” Ms. Aitchison conceded.This holiday season, she plans to shop until she drops.“I don’t think about what I’m going to spend,” she said. “In January and February, because I spent all my money, I’ll eat beans and rice while I pay the bills off.”Despite their different holiday shopping styles, Ms. Aitchison said she and Ms. Beck always had fun shopping together.“She doesn’t get nearly the amount of things that I do,” Ms. Aitchison said. “She’s always like: ‘Kristin stop. Put that down. You don’t need it.’” More

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    Retail Sales Fell 0.6% in November, Despite Black Friday

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    Inflation changed the way U.S. shoppers approached the holiday season, while lower gas prices and a decline in car sales were also factors.Retail sales fell in November, with spending on even traditionally popular gift categories like clothing and sporting goods declining, a sign that high prices for necessities like food are affecting how people approach the holiday shopping season.U.S. retail sales fell 0.6 percent in November from October, the Department of Commerce said on Thursday. The figure does not account for price changes, and inflation did ease slightly during the month.Spending increased in some areas, including at grocery stores, health and personal care stores and restaurants and bars. But categories like motor vehicles, furniture, consumer electronics, clothing and sporting goods all declined. Gas prices also fell during the month, meaning consumers spent less money filling up their cars.“Overall, the demand patterns — not the most academic term — have been out of whack for the past few years and what we’re seeing is these disruptions coming back in these forms,” said Andrew Forman, who studies consumer behavior at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business. “There are so many moving factors.”Inflation in November slowed to 7.1 percent through the year, down from 7.7 percent in October. Some analysts pointed out that lower prices affected the retail sales figure.“Less inflation is driving some of that decline from October to November, which wouldn’t be a bad thing,” David Silverman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, said.In many ways, the report highlights how inflation, even if it has eased, has changed the way consumers are approaching the holiday season. Americans, for example, are whittling down the number of people they are giving gifts to, according to data from KPMG.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    Why Retailers Are Trying Extra Hard to Woo Holiday Shoppers

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    With an economic slowdown a distinct possibility, stores hope customers’ willingness to open their wallets will last through the season.Amazon held what amounted to an extra Prime Day in October, blanketing its site with deals. Best Buy rolled out Black Friday-level sales last month. And on Friday, Kohl’s entered the first 200 people to walk into each of its stores into a sweepstakes, with prizes including gift cards to Sephora and a family trip to a Legoland resort.With the arrival of the all-important holiday shopping season, retailers are not just competing with one another to attract customers. They are also competing against the clock.For now, Americans are spending, buoyed by pandemic-era savings and a red-hot labor market. But at the same time, prices are climbing at the fastest pace in decades and the Federal Reserve is attempting to rein them in by raising interest rates. That effort to curb demand by making borrowing more expensive is, in turn, making consumers pessimistic about the economy. And a recession is a distinct possibility.Retailers, some of them sitting on a glut of inventory, want to sell as much as they can while consumers are still pulling out their wallets. So they are barraging customers with discounts, hoping to entice them to buy before an economic slowdown causes a change in behavior once more.Whether retailers succeed will have profound implications. Billions of dollars are at stake, and companies will be watching the outcome closely as they make hiring and investment decisions for the new year.“We’re going to spend a lot of time right now focused on executing our plan, getting through the holiday season and then assessing the consumer and the overall retail landscape as we look to 2023,” Brian Cornell, the chief executive of Target, said on a call with analysts this month.More broadly, retail sales during the holiday shopping period could provide clues about the trajectory of the economy in the weeks and months to come.“For the overall economy, I think that it’s going to be very important to look at what the consumer is doing because really that’s going to be your key indicator,” said Lydia Boussour, an economist at EY-Parthenon. “It’s the key engine of growth.”An Express store at the Tanger Outlet in North Charleston, S.C. To entice bargain-hungry shoppers and move unwanted inventory, many companies are promoting “value.”Gavin McIntyre for The New York TimesForecasters generally believe that consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of total economic growth, will remain strong in the fourth quarter, in large part because of household savings. Collectively, Americans by the middle of this year were still sitting on about $1.7 trillion in extra savings accumulated during the pandemic, based on Fed estimates, thanks in part to government aid.But in September, the most recent month for which calculations were available, Americans saved only 3.1 percent of their after-tax income, less than half the share before the pandemic. And poorer Americans are seeing their savings dwindle even faster than wealthier ones.Meanwhile, credit card balances in the third quarter swelled 15 percent compared with a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That was the largest increase in more than two decades, as consumers increasingly rely on credit even as borrowing costs are rising.And a University of Michigan survey this month showed a sharp decline in “consumer sentiment” — a measurement of how people feel about the economy and their financial situation. Even as consumers continue to make purchases, Ms. Boussour said, “they’re feeling depressed about the overall economic situation, and they are going to grow increasingly reluctant to spend.”An employee at Bath & Body Works at Tanger Outlet greeted Black Friday shoppers. Forecasters generally expect that consumer spending will remain strong in the fourth quarter, largely because of household savings.Gavin McIntyre for The New York TimesRetail sales grew 1.3 percent in October, more than expected, as shoppers snapped up earlier-than-usual holiday deals. Some major retailers including Walmart and Home Depot reported strong third-quarter earnings, bolstered by sales for less discretionary goods like groceries or items related to home renovation and do-it-yourself projects. “Households are still spending money because they can,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at the investment bank Jefferies. “I still think there’s a lot of uncertainty about next year because the Fed obviously has raised rates very aggressively this year and we haven’t really felt the effects yet.”But several retailers said they saw demand for their products slow during the month, and when shoppers did buy, they seemed motivated by sales. Some companies have lowered their financial outlook or declined outright to provide forecasts for next year to avoid being caught flat-footed.This was not how the end of this year was supposed to be. For two holiday shopping seasons, retailers strained against pandemic disruptions. Now that the virus restrictions and supply chain snarls that defined those periods have largely abated, retailers had been expecting something of a return to normal.Instead, retailers find themselves trying to outrun a likely economic slowdown.To entice bargain-hungry shoppers and move unwanted inventory, many companies are promoting “value,” offering steep discounts and low prices more so than last year even as labor costs remain high. Many started their holiday blitzes early in the hopes of jump starting sales. Target held Deal Days in October and Old Navy rolled out a “Sorry, Not Sorry” holiday campaign. “Value clearly matters to everyone,” Corie Barry, the chief executive of Best Buy, said on an earnings call last week.J.C. Penney brought back doorbuster sales on Black Friday aimed at getting shoppers back into the store.Justin Hamel for The New York TimesAt J.C. Penney, stores returned to 5 a.m. doorbusters on Black Friday, promoting the “pre-inflation pricing” for items like Instant Pots, hair flat irons and coats.Jeff Gennette, the chief executive of Macy’s, said that a feature on its website that allows users to peruse gifts priced from $15 to $100 seemed to be particularly tempting to shoppers.“If you’ve got an item that’s competing with the competitor, and you’re a higher price, you’ve got to make those adjustments,” he said.Retailers are trying to eliminate any obstacles between a shopper and a potential purchase. Jill Timm, the chief financial officer for Kohl’s, said the chain was providing more personalized offers to shoppers, as well as clearly laying out the discount amounts on certain items to prevent customers from being confused “because they had to do math.”Kohl’s is “really making sure that the offers that we’re putting in are meaningful to the customer to drive their behavior,” Ms. Timm said.Signaling value is part of the overall strategy for Primark, an international clothing retailer, as it looks to grow its presence in the United States.In a recently opened store at a mall in Garden City, N.Y., Primark executives pointed out large signs that advertised $11 hoodies, $4 biker shorts and $20 for a baby-blue bag featuring Stitch from the Disney movie “Lilo and Stitch” — and noted that a candle, at 90 cents without any holiday discount, cost less than at Walmart.“It needs to be a very clear moment when you walk in of that perception that there is amazing value throughout the whole store,” said Kevin Tulip, Primark’s U.S. president.Shoppers seemed price conscious on Black Friday and throughout the weekend.Retailers dropped online prices for merchandise like toys, electronics and computers, according to data released on Friday from Adobe Analytics. Discounts for sporting goods and TVs were far steeper this year than last year, according to Adobe data, and clothing prices were slightly lower this year. The average discount for Black Friday deals in the United States was 30 percent, according to Salesforce. In 2019, Salesforce said, the average discount rate for Black Friday was 33 percent.In-store sales on Friday rose 12 percent from last year, and e-commerce sales increased 14 percent compared with 2021, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse data released on Saturday. Those sales included spending not just in retail stores but also at restaurants.Still, not everyone was satisfied. On social media, people complained that Black Friday deals weren’t as sizable as they expected.In San Francisco, Riz Gordon, 24, woke up at 6 a.m. on Friday to shop with her parents and younger sister. Going to the stores that day is “a long family tradition,” she said, and they had already picked out stocking stuffers and smaller presents. But inflation was on their minds.“The prices are very much different than 10 years ago,” Ms. Gordon said.On Sunday, at a Target in Springfield, Ill., D.J. Baggerly, 69, made a quick trip for one final Christmas gift: a white knitted throw blanket. She had spent the weekend mostly shopping online, working through her grandchildren’s wish list.Ms. Baggerly lives on a fixed income, and the higher prices for gas and groceries, she said, have been “ridiculous.” Asked if she planned to cut back on spending in the coming weeks, she said, “Oh yeah. I’m done.”Ben Casselman More

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    Billions of Dollars at Stake in a Puzzling Holiday Shopping Season

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    It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still figuring out how much will be spent and on what kinds of goods.No one quite knows what to make of this year’s holiday shopping season. But billions of dollars are riding on it.After two pandemic holiday seasons messed with doorbusters, party plans and supply chains, retailers were hoping that this year would be a return to sanity. But just as it started to appear that families and stores could pull out their old playbooks, along came near-record inflation and the war in Ukraine, only increasing general unease about the state of the world.Some things are looking up. The pandemic has receded, supply chains generally stabilized, and the labor market is strong.But in March, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to slow down inflation, just as retail executives were making plans for which toys, wreaths and fuzzy socks shoppers would buy come winter. To try to ensure a robust shopping season, retailers leaned in early and often. Christmas trees showed up at Costco in August. Amazon threw what amounted to a second Prime Day in October. And it seems every day has brought ads for Black Friday deals, like the ones that Target offered throughout October.Still, shoppers seem confused. Should they buy now or later? Purchase for a lot of people or put a priority on a few? Give items or shared experiences? Trust online deliveries or go with local shops?“The truth is, we don’t know whether consumers will spend more or less on gift giving or whether they’ll do more shopping online or in the mall,” Etsy’s chief executive, Josh Silverman, told investors recently.That has left companies making predictions for the all-important retail season that amount to a shrug.“We’re not quite sure how strong holiday spending will be versus last year,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s finance chief, told investors in October, “and we’re ready for a variety of outcomes.”Or, as Peter Boneparth, the chair of Kohl’s board, told analysts this month, “I think everybody believes that Christmas will come, but I don’t think anybody out there knows for sure exactly what’s going to happen.”Feeling inflation’s squeezeMathias Wasik for The New York TimesInflation is on everyone’s mind. Higher prices on all sorts of items have made people rethink what they’re buying and whom they’re buying for. While inflation is moderating slightly, it’s at the highest levels since Indiana Jones was bullwhipping raiders of the Lost Ark at the mall cineplex.More on Big TechMicrosoft: The company’s $69 billion deal for Activision Blizzard, which rests on winning the approval by 16 governments, has become a test for whether tech giants can buy companies amid a backlash.Apple: Apple’s largest iPhone factory, in the city of Zhengzhou, China, is dealing with a shortage of workers. Now, that plant is getting help from an unlikely source: the Chinese government.Amazon: The company appears set to lay off approximately 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs, in what would be the largest cuts in the company’s history.Meta: The parent of Facebook said it was laying off more than 11,000 people, or about 13 percent of its work forceThe National Retail Federation predicts that holiday sales in November and December will increase 6 to 7 percent from last year, but that’s below the rate of inflation.“Folks are really looking for deals this year,” said Melissa Burdick, who spent a decade at Amazon and founded Pacvue, which helps big brands sell online. “They’re shifting what they’re buying to favor lower-priced brands and more necessary items.” She summed up the sentiment as: “I used to want Bose headphones. Now I will buy chips on sale on Amazon.”Cristian Tinoco, 19, who works 45 hours a week at a gym in Seattle and attends community college, said his family would focus on spending Christmas together after a rocky year.“Gas has especially gone up. I probably spend about $400 a paycheck on gas because I commute 35 minutes each way, each day. I have three siblings, so my parents have four kids at home and spend more than $1,000 a month on groceries. I help sometimes pay for food with my paycheck.“My student loan application got messed up, so I’ve been paying for college out of pocket. I don’t want to drop out. I may finally be able to start saving. I want to buy a truck — it just feels like me.”The experience is the thingPeople spent two pandemic years buying stuff. With stimulus checks, rising wages and nowhere to go, last year’s holiday season generated the biggest annual growth in retail spending on record — 14.1 percent.This year, Covid-19 travel restrictions have eased, and masking mandates are virtually gone. Retailers are bracing to lose out on spending as more people go on trips, attend concerts and eat out.The Transportation Security Administration said screenings were up 33 percent from last year, and concert bookings are up 51 percent, according to Eventbrite.“They were reminded that life is very short, and coming out of this pandemic they want to experience life again,” Mike Daher, an executive at the consultancy Deloitte, said.Mary Anna Ball, 25, a ballerina and research analyst in West Virginia, usually starts squirreling away Christmas gifts in July but this year wants to give gifts that will help her family experience the world.“I love sweaters and little kitschy things like that, but I know not everyone is that way, and you’ll kind of remember the experience more than when you’re going through your clothes of, ‘How did I get this sweater?’ If you give an experience, that’s something you’ll remember a bit longer, or maybe it’ll introduce you to a new hobby or something like that.“I have two younger brothers. Some people get siblings tattoos. I refuse to do that. But they’ve said it would be fun to go skydiving one day. I thought, I can get them a voucher and, whenever they can, they can just go down and skydive or something.”Christmas came early in many storesMathias Wasik for The New York TimesGetting what you want this year shouldn’t be a big issue. Remembering last year, when popular items were stuck at ports or somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, brands ramped up production, and retailers ordered more products. They did this earlier than usual to make sure items arrived on time, but the supply chain improved. When orders arrived earlier than expected, retailers piled items in warehouses that in some cases were already stuffed with merchandise ordered in 2021.That, combined with uncertain consumer demand, left retailers with record-high inventories, according to data from the Census Bureau.That’s leading to more deals and a hodgepodge of goods on store floors, no matter the season. In other words, Christmas came early to stores.Mike Campese, a guitarist and instructor in Las Vegas, knew this year was going to be strange when he saw holiday merchandise unusually early.“The other day, I was in Costco, and as soon as you walk in, the very first aisle is the Christmas stuff. It is still September! Oh, my God.“It is the earliest I have seen it. Usually the day after Halloween it’s like the malls are playing Christmas tunes and the decorations are up. Some people go shopping in September. I can’t do that. I am not in the spirit yet.”Waiting on deals, even for everyday itemsAmazon tried its best to hype an early holiday sale at the start of October. Some of the top-selling products in the United States — like Crest Whitestrips and protein powder — weren’t exactly typical presents.“No one is buying gifts for Christmas,” said Jason Murray, an Amazon veteran whose company, Shipium, advises online retailers. “They are buying for themselves.”It doesn’t matter much to retailers, who used the early holiday sales to try to offload products before most shoppers had even picked out their Halloween costumes. But it signaled that shoppers are motivated by deals, no matter what they’re for. After two years of limited discounts, shoppers are showing they are willing to hold out for a bargain.Brands are getting on board. “We made too many,” the bike maker Specialized said on its website, telling customers that they can “save BIG.”Rakuten, an online platform that offers deals and shopper rewards, said retailer participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions was the “biggest in the last three years.”Natalie Rodriguez, 47, who works for the Indiana Department of Revenue, said the products on sale weren’t what she wanted to give for Christmas.“I am really cognizant of those deals that are coming up right now. I think it is a grab to see who gets my money first. Am I taking advantage of it because I perceive it was a deal?“On the Amazon sale, I had 150 things in my cart and saved for later, but I didn’t see anything that is comparable to what I would think is a Black Friday deal. When I was a kid, Black Friday was superlow-cost, like 80 or 90 percent off. Most of what I saw was 30 and 40 percent on some items. It’s like, ‘Nah, I will just pass,’ especially if it is not an essential item. Crest Whitestrips were a great deal, but I don’t need them right now.“All I got was a $50 gift card with a $10 bonus on it.”On-time arrival, finallyFor years, largely spurred on by Amazon, consumers got used to fast shipping — often in two days or less. The pandemic upended that. Driver and inventory shortages meant people had to plan ahead.This year, industry experts do not expect another Shipageddon. There are more than enough delivery and warehouse workers to meet demand. Shippers should be able to deliver 110 million packages a day, almost 20 million more than shoppers are expected to order, according to ShipMatrix, a consultancy.“Because of experiences of what has gone on with global supply chains in the last few years, folks are stretching the holiday season over a longer period,” said Jamil Ghani, the vice president of Amazon Prime.Miranda Rosas, 21, a student at the University of California, Merced, was nervous about late-arriving Christmas gifts, so she started ordering last month.“Shipping last year was so awful, and a lot of items that I ordered a little bit last minute came in time, thankfully, but it took a long time. I tried to start a little sooner.“I really thought that it was going to take a couple weeks or a whole week and then it would ship and then it would take another two weeks to come. Now, a lot of my stuff it’s been like, ‘Oh! Already?’”Luxury is its own thingMathias Wasik for The New York TimesThe vibes are good for people with money to spare.More than three-quarters of luxury shoppers say they plan to spend the same as or more than last year, according to a survey from Saks. Twice as many as last year said they planned on dressing up in formal attire for the holidays, and 40 percent wanted to “self-gift” shoes. Luxury goods companies are giving signals that they’re confident about the U.S. market. This month, Estee Lauder agreed to buy Tom Ford for $2.8 billion, widening its reach into fashion apparel.“Customers are going back to a social life,” said Geoffroy van Raemdonck, chief executive at Neiman Marcus, whose top customers spend an average of $25,000 a year with the brand. “This is one of the first holidays that they feel more comfortable sharing it with their loved ones. I think that there’s a lot of good things coming with the holiday.”Sabah Essa, 49, a style adviser at Neiman Marcus in Atlanta, has been working with her clients, who include doctors, housewives, reality-TV stars and young professionals, to build their holiday wish lists.“Mostly everyone wants a big expensive piece compared to last year. For example, someone maybe got a Prada bag last Christmas, and now they’re upgrading it to high-end jewelry.“They want to find an outfit for going out to dinner or a party or birthday or to grab a gift for another friend. Everybody is just really happy to go out, and they can go without a mask.“A lot of them are also traveling. They want their suitcase to be all new stuff.“One client wants to give his wife 30 different gifts for her turning 30. He wants to have that plus Christmas because her birthday falls right around Christmas. The gifts are all different ranges, from stocking stuffers to high-end jewelry to Chanel bags to shoes — a lot of shoes, from sneakers to heels to boots.“It helps that we offer our clients a glass of champagne when they come in to make it easy for them to shop. Or if they want a cup of tea or coffee. It’s more fun than the years in the past now.”Interviews have been lightly edited for clarity. More

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    Biden Projects Normalcy and Optimism as Omicron Poses New Threat

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    The president tried to convey holiday cheer as he celebrated Hanukkah and downplayed virus concerns as the variant was detected in California.WASHINGTON — With prices rising across the economy and a new variant of the coronavirus threatening another wave of the pandemic, President Biden stepped to a White House microphone and tried to convey a sense of normalcy.“We’re looking ahead to a brighter and happier December,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday. He ticked through a list of actions by his administration that he said would help ensure fully stocked shelves in groceries and retailers through the holidays.Asked by reporters if he was worried that the Omicron variant, which officials announced later in the day had been detected in California, would threaten that progress, the president was undeterred.“I’m an optimist,” he said.It could be a long and anxious December for many Americans, given that inflation is at its highest rate in decades, global delivery delays are limiting the availability of some products and the uncertainty of Omicron is looming over what was already a halting recovery from recession. On Wednesday, the stock market tumbled for a second consecutive session, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.2 percent after the Omicron news broke. The Nasdaq composite lost 1.8 percent.Mr. Biden, for his part, tried to reassure Americans that this holiday season would be better than the last.He stacked his day with policy pronouncements on supply chains and World AIDS Day and ended it with a White House ceremony for the fourth night of Hanukkah, a throwback to prepandemic celebrations in Washington. He stressed the positives of the national economy.His top infectious disease expert said it was OK for Americans to enjoy a glass of eggnog, unmasked, at a cocktail party this month — under certain circumstances, at least.It was the president’s latest attempt to balance the nation’s desire to return to something resembling a normal life with the bracing reality that the virus is continuing to kill nearly 1,000 Americans a day, and still disrupting economic activity.Global supply chains have been choked by the pandemic recession and recovery, leaving many Americans, Mr. Biden noted, to fear they will not be able to find the food or toys they want for their celebrations.The president said those fears would prove largely unfounded, claiming progress from his administration’s actions to clear port backlogs and ease the delivery of more goods to market at a time when Black Friday sales jumped nearly a third from the year before.He cited comments and commitments from a wide range of retail executives he met with on Monday at the White House to discuss inflation and supply issues, saying that physical and online retailers alike had assured him they were well prepared for a rush of spending.“Those shelves are going to be stocked,” Mr. Biden said.Mr. Biden also emphasized slight improvement on the price spikes that have depressed consumer confidence and his approval ratings, including increases for food, appliances and gasoline. He said his decision last week to release 50 million barrels of oil from the nation’s emergency reserves had already begun to reduce oil prices worldwide and would soon provide relief at the pump.The big dip in prices in recent days has come not from the release of reserves, coordinated with several other nations, but from fears that Omicron will once again depress driving and other demand for oil as it rips through the world economy.Businesses continue to struggle to overcome supply chain delays. According to a new index published by Flexport, a global freight forwarder, shipping times from Asia to the United States and from Asia to Europe remain at or near record highs — and double what they were in March 2019.A surge in the Omicron variant could lead to further delays, if ports and factories shutter and warehouses and trucking companies have an even harder time finding people to work. This year, China shut down some of its most active ports after small outbreaks of the virus as it sought to quickly contain its spread.Health experts have not yet determined the answers to crucial questions about how the variant might behave, including whether it might prove more adept at evading vaccines, which would in turn determine how much it might crimp growth or affect inflation. Analysts have warned in recent days that it is throwing new uncertainty into their forecasts.Researchers at BNP Paribas wrote on Wednesday that the variant presented several possible scenarios for the global economy, ranging from a relatively minor bump that passes quickly to a “significant near-term hit to economic activity.” Analysts at Moody’s wrote that “business plans to gradually return to a post-pandemic new normal are now uncertain.”Mr. Biden sided with the brighter view, telling reporters that “what we’ve seen so far does not guarantee” that the variant will worsen supply chain issues.Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told reporters in an ensuing briefing at the White House that the variant was no reason for Americans who were already vaccinated and boosted to change their behaviors beyond existing guidance from federal officials. Asked if Americans should feel free to attend holiday parties and drink unmasked, Dr. Fauci said it depended on the size of the gathering.Dr. Anthony S. Fauci said the variant was no reason for Americans who were already vaccinated and boosted to change their behaviors beyond existing guidance from federal officials.Doug Mills/The New York Times“In a situation with a holiday season, indoor-type settings with family that you know is vaccinated, people that you know, you can feel safe with not wearing a mask and having a dinner, having a reception,” he said. But in larger public settings where it is unclear if everyone is vaccinated, he said, people should wear masks except to eat or drink.Mr. Biden and other Democrats sprinkled holiday reminders through the rest of the day, with only brief references to Omicron. The president spoke at a ceremony to light the menorah on Wednesday evening, in a packed ceremony that included Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the chamber’s first Jewish majority leader.Mr. Schumer struck a more somber tone than the president earlier in the day, saying that the season “is a reminder that in the face of awful adversity we cannot lose faith in God’s providence. In the face of darkness, Hanukkah teaches that rather than curse the darkness we must light a candle.”Mr. Biden held his celebration of World AIDS Day in the East Room, which was decked with several Christmas trees, and with wreaths hanging over its mirrors. He began his supply chain remarks in the South Court Auditorium — which was adorned with flags, not tinsel — by noting he would light the National Christmas Tree on Thursday evening.Even when he talked about global shipping, Mr. Biden could not resist a holiday reference. Mr. Biden recalled runs on hot toys, like Cabbage Patch Kids in the 1980s and Beanie Babies in the 1990s, “in past years when there was no supply chain problem.”Shipping companies like UPS and FedEx this year are on track to deliver more packages than ever, Mr. Biden said. But he offered a caveat for children: “I can’t promise that every person will get every gift they want on time. Only Santa Claus can keep that promise.”Ana Swanson More

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    Biden Discusses Holiday Shopping Season With Retail Executives

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    Whether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world.Whether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world. More

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    Retailers Scramble to Attract Workers Ahead of the Holidays

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    Signing bonuses, higher wages, even college tuition. Companies are using perks to entice new employees in an industry that has been battered by the pandemic.Macy’s is offering referral bonuses of up to $500 for each friend or family member that employees recruit to join the company. Walmart is paying as much as $17 an hour to start and has begun offering free college tuition to its workers. And some Amazon warehouse jobs now command signing bonuses of up to $3,000.Retailers, expecting the holiday shopping season to be bustling once again this year after being upended by the coronavirus in 2020, are scrambling to find enough workers to staff their stores and distribution centers in a tight labor market. It is not proving easy to entice applicants to an industry that has been battered, more than most, by the pandemic’s many challenges, from fights over mask wearing to high rates of infection among employees. Willing retail workers are likely to earn larger paychecks and work fewer hours, while consumers may be greeted by less inventory and understaffed stores.“Folks looking to work in retail have typically had very little choice — it’s largely been driven by geography and availability of hours,” said Mark A. Cohen, the director of retail studies at Columbia University’s business school. “Now they can pick and choose who’s got the highest, best benefits, bonuses and hourly rates. And as we’ve seen, the escalation has been striking.”Or as Jeff Gennette, the chief executive of Macy’s, which plans to hire 76,000 full- and part-time employees this season, put it in a recent interview: “Everyone’s experiencing this — there’s a war for talent at the front lines. My sense is we all have to raise our game.”While some of the most generous perks, like tuition reimbursement, are being offered mainly to long-term workers, even seasonal workers will see higher pay than usual. It’s especially critical for retailers to hire temporary help this year because existing employees are already strained from nearly two years of pandemic conditions. The National Retail Federation, an industry group, is anticipating record holiday sales and has forecast that retailers will hire 500,000 to 665,000 seasonal workers, significantly more than the 486,000 in 2020.It’s especially critical for retailers to hire temporary help this year to assist existing employees already strained from nearly two years of pandemic conditions.Jeenah Moon for The New York Times“The biggest risk to retailers and distributors is that they are working their current work force too much,” said Scott Mushkin, who founded the financial consultant R5 Capital, based in New Canaan, Conn. “Overtime can only go so far. The work force is tired out.”Mr. Mushkin experienced firsthand just how eager retailers are for workers during a visit last month to a Home Depot in Naperville, Ill.“I was looking at a sign listing open positions at the store when I was basically accosted by a manager asking if I was interested in applying,” Mr. Mushkin said.Mr. Mushkin said he was struck not only by the manager’s desperation but also by the number of positions available. “Basically every job in that store is open,” he said. “So who is doing those jobs now? Who is picking up the slack?”Those pressures may explain why large retailers like Walmart are looking to hire 150,000 additional workers to supplement its current staff this season. For several years leading up to the pandemic, Walmart offered existing workers extra hours at the holidays but did not start a large hiring blitz. (Existing employees can still sign up for additional hours.) It recently raised its minimum wage to $12 an hour, and in some stores it is offering new workers $17 an hour.A recruiter for Amazon at a job fair in Virginia last month. It is looking for an additional 150,000 people this holiday season.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAmazon is also looking for an additional 150,000 people this holiday season, which follows a push to expand its permanent work force by 125,000. With giant retailers gobbling up many of the job candidates, enticing new employees is that much harder for others.Many retailers, like Saks Off 5th, reiterated commitments to remain closed on Thanksgiving this year, a welcome shift for workers after a yearslong trend of shopping invading the holiday. Demanding that employees work in stores that day would probably be a particularly tough sell this year.Nordstrom, which is aiming to hire 28,600 seasonal and regular employees, said it had increased bonus and incentive pay to as much as $650 for hourly and overnight store workers, from as much as $400 last year.Saks Off 5th said in October that it was raising its minimum base wage for hourly store workers to $15 per hour — more than double the federal minimum wage — and that it would not offer extended holiday shopping hours this year so that staff could have more flexibility.Best Buy is allowing job applicants to submit videos rather than coming in physically for a first round of interviews, saying in a recent statement that the videos “can be recorded and reviewed without the need to go back and forth on scheduling.”The scramble by retailers comes as the American economy is gaining strength, adding 531,000 jobs in October, a sharp rebound from the previous month. But even as unemployment dropped to 4.6 percent from 4.8 percent, the labor participation rate — which measures the share of the working-age population employed or looking for a job — was flat last month, at 61.6 percent. That signals that the pool of available workers remains tight.“We’re coming out of a crisis we have no experience in dealing with, in which millions of people were furloughed or laid off or removed from the work force, and to think they’ll all show up on certain date to come back to work is kind of silly,” Mr. Cohen said. “Some people are still fearful about coming back to work, especially in a job in which they would be exposed to large numbers of the public.”While fear of the Delta variant may be keeping some workers away, the retail industry had been loath to impose vaccine mandates for fear that store workers might leave and that it might become even harder to find seasonal employees. A new vaccinate-or-test requirement for companies with 100 or more employees announced by the Biden administration on Thursday essentially forced their hands, though it is not scheduled to take effect until Jan. 4 and was temporarily blocked on Saturday by a federal appeals court in Louisiana. (The mandate does instruct employers to require unvaccinated workers to wear masks by Dec. 5.)The National Retail Federation was critical of the mandate, saying it imposes “burdensome new requirements on retailers during the crucial holiday shopping season.”L.L. Bean’s chief executive said that it has been “incredibly challenging” to hire hourly employees, especially for its 54 stores.Karsten Moran for The New York TimesStephen Smith, the chief executive of L.L. Bean, the outdoor retailer based in Maine, said it has been “incredibly challenging” to hire hourly employees, especially for its more than 50 stores. The chain is not offering bonuses, but it has given priority to new forms of flexibility to attract workers. For example, jobs at its domestic call center are now fully remote.In stores, Mr. Smith said, “we have changed our shift structure so you can do two- or four-hour shifts” in an attempt to “make it a lot easier if you’re juggling family responsibilities.”The company has also sought to emphasize its unique benefits, including several paid days off for employees to pursue outdoor experiences.The challenge of finding workers has put a spotlight on how difficult many retail jobs are and on the short shrift given to many store workers during the worst of the pandemic. They were regularly exposed to Covid-19 and involved in customer conflicts around wearing masks, and they were inconsistently offered hazard pay or other compensation for their efforts. Many retail workers said that they were not properly informed when they were exposed to the virus in stores.Anthony Stropoli, a personal shopper at Bergdorf Goodman, holds one of the lucrative, client-facing jobs that have been fading in retail in recent years and he noted that luxury retail was a different ballgame. He previously worked at Barneys New York, which filed for bankruptcy in 2019.“A lot of people do not want to work in retail right now — I really, really see it,” Mr. Stropoli said. “People are not feeling appreciated or fairly compensated, and I think this whole Covid thing has made them really rethink that. They want to feel valued.”It all means that workers have more leverage this season than they have in the past. Joel Bines, global co-leader of the retail practice at the consulting firm AlixPartners, said if retailers want to find enough workers this season, they need to pay them more and fundamentally improve working conditions.“For retailers, who have treated their workers as dispensable cogs in order to increase the bottom line, to say they are shocked that they can’t find people to work for them is hard to believe,” Mr. Bines said.“The thing that the industry needs to realize is that workers have agency now,” he added. “They have agency in a way they never have before.”Contact Sapna Maheshwari at sapna@nytimes.com and Michael Corkery at michael.corkery@nytimes.com. More