Immigration and Emigration

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  • 138 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    High Inflation and New Tariffs Will Make the Fed’s Job Tougher

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    Fresh tariffs amid high inflation are making the Fed’s job uniquely difficult and feeding uncertainty about what to expect for interest rates this year.High inflation is stoking fresh debate about how the Federal Reserve should respond to President Trump’s sweeping plans to reorder the world economy through tariffs, leading to questions about whether old playbooks still apply.On Saturday, Mr. Trump is poised to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada as well as an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. That move comes on the heels of threats to impose hefty tariffs on Colombia, which were rescinded after its government complied with Mr. Trump’s demands to accept deported migrants.Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s nominee to oversee the Commerce Department and trade, said at a confirmation hearing on Wednesday that he favored “across-the-board” tariffs that would hit entire countries.The volume of trade policy proposals is making the Fed’s already tricky job even more difficult and sowing uncertainty about what to expect from the central bank as it tries to fully wrestle inflation back to more normal levels.Tariffs are broadly seen by economists and policymakers as likely to stoke higher prices for U.S. businesses and consumers at least initially, and over time weigh on growth. That, as well as Mr. Trump’s plans to also enact mass deportations, steep tax cuts and reduced deregulation, has complicated the path forward for the Fed, which is debating how quickly to resume rate cuts and by what magnitude after pressing pause this week.What comes next is far from clear, leaving central bank officials to parse playbooks both old and new to formulate the right strategy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 188 Shares159 Views

    in Economy

    Trump Backers, Including Elon Musk, Clash With Far Right Over Immigrant Workers and H-1B Visas

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    A fierce dispute erupted in the president-elect’s camp between immigration hard-liners and tech industry leaders including Elon Musk.Weeks before President-elect Donald J. Trump is to take office, a major rift has emerged among his supporters over immigration and the place of foreign workers in the U.S. labor market.The debate hinges on how much tolerance, if any, the incoming administration should have for skilled immigrants brought into the country on work visas.The schism pits immigration hard-liners against many of the president-elect’s most prominent backers from the technology industry — among them Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who helped back Mr. Trump’s election efforts with more than a quarter of a billion dollars, and David Sacks, a venture capitalist picked to be czar for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency policy.The tech industry has long relied on foreign skilled workers to help run its companies, a labor supply that critics say undercuts wages for American citizens.The dispute, which late Thursday exploded online into acrimony, finger-pointing and accusations of censorship, frames a policy quandary for Mr. Trump. The president-elect has in the past expressed a willingness to provide more work visas to skilled workers, but has also promised to close the border, deploy tariffs to create more jobs for American citizens and severely restrict immigration.Laura Loomer, a far-right activist and fervent Trump loyalist, helped set off the altercation earlier this week by criticizing Mr. Trump’s selection of Sriram Krishnan, an Indian American venture capitalist, to be an adviser on artificial intelligence policy. In a post, she said she was concerned that Mr. Krishnan, a naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in India, would have influence on the Trump administration’s immigration policies, and mentioned “third-world invaders.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares109 Views

    in Economy

    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    Tech Makes an Economic Case for Skilled Immigrants. Will Trump Bite?

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    Silicon Valley hopes that tech giants like Elon Musk could help to push the incoming Trump administration toward offering more visas to highly skilled foreign workers.Aaron Levie, the chief executive of the cloud software company Box, said he was more hopeful than he had been at any point in the past 15 years that America could soon accept more highly educated immigrants — the sort of skilled foreigners he hires as software engineers.Mr. Levie recently posted on X that America’s immigration policies for high-skilled workers are “not responsive to the market,” and that Elon Musk, with his position in president-elect Donald J. Trump’s orbit, could fix them.“I agree,” Mr. Musk replied. The thread quickly filled with other tech workers and executives sharing stories of trying to get visas for themselves and their employees.Welcoming more high-skilled immigrants is “one of the highest leverage — maybe the highest leverage — thing you could do to make sure that America stays at the forefront,” Mr. Levie said in an interview.The technology industry considers that argument about economic competitiveness as one that could persuade Mr. Trump to allow increased levels of immigration for highly skilled workers. But the industry’s optimism clashes with past experience: The president-elect did not expand skill-based legal immigration during his first term in office. Instead, his immigration officials curbed visa programs for educated workers by overseeing them more stringently.And while some in Silicon Valley and corporate America are hoping that this time will be different, Washington policy analysts, lawyers and visa holders themselves are less certain.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares119 Views

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    Trump Plans Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico That Could Cripple Trade

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on all products coming into the United States from Canada, Mexico and China on his first day in office, a move that would scramble global supply chains and impose heavy costs on companies that rely on doing business with some of the world’s largest economies.In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use an executive order to levy a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border.“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” the president-elect wrote.“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he added. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”In a separate post, Mr. Trump also threatened an additional 10 percent tariff on all products from China, saying that the country was shipping illegal drugs to the United States.“Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” he said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares109 Views

    in Economy

    Why Trump Allies Say Immigration Hurts American Workers

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    JD Vance and others on the “new right” say limiting immigration will raise wages and give jobs to sidelined Americans. Many studies suggest otherwise.As President-elect Donald J. Trump’s second administration takes shape, his plans for a signature campaign promise are becoming clear: mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, including new detention centers, workplace raids and possibly the mobilization of the military to aid in expulsions.Most economists are skeptical that this project will improve opportunities for working-class Americans. Mr. Trump and his allies don’t typically argue for purging undocumented immigrants on economic grounds; the case is more often about crimes committed by migrants, or simply a need to enforce the law.But there is an intellectual movement behind immigration restriction that seeks to reshape the relationship between employers and their sources of labor. According to this rising conservative faction, most closely identified with Vice President-elect JD Vance, cutting off the supply of vulnerable foreigners will force employers to seek out U.S.-born workers.“We cannot have an entire American business community that is giving up on American workers and then importing millions of illegal laborers,” Mr. Vance said in an interview with The New York Times in October, adding, “It’s one of the biggest reasons why we have millions of people who’ve dropped out of the labor force.”Mr. Vance is correct that the share of men in their prime working years who are in the labor force — that is, either working or looking for work — has declined in recent decades, sliding during recessions and never totally recovering. (Women in that age group, 25 to 54 years old, are working at the highest levels on record.)It seems like a simple equation: When fewer workers are available, employers have to try harder to compete for them. Certainly that dynamic played a role in the swift wage growth early in the pandemic, when people willing to do in-person jobs — waiters or nurses, for example — were in especially short supply.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    How Trump’s Immigration Plans Could Affect the Economy

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    Expelling noncitizens on a mass scale is likely to raise prices on goods and services and lower employment rates for U.S. workers, many economists say.The wave of migrants who arrived during the Biden administration fueled some of the anger that propelled Donald J. Trump back to power. They also offset a labor shortage, putting a damper on inflation.With the next administration vowing to seal the border and carry out the largest deportation program in American history, those economic forces could reverse — depending on the degree to which Mr. Trump can fulfill those promises.Mr. Trump’s newly appointed “border czar,” Tom Homan, has said that the administration would start with the immigrants who have committed crimes. There are not nearly enough of those to amount to removals on a mass scale, however, and Vice President-elect JD Vance has also said that all 11 million undocumented immigrants should prepare to leave. “If you are in this country illegally in six months, pack your bags, because you’re going home,” Mr. Vance said in September.The numbers could rise by another 2.7 million if the new administration revokes several types of temporary humanitarian protection, as the Trump adviser Stephen Miller previewed last year. On top of that, millions of undocumented residents live with U.S.-born children or green card holders who could end up leaving the country as well.There are logistical, legal, diplomatic and — even though Mr. Trump has said there is “no price tag” he wouldn’t direct the government to pay — fiscal obstacles to expelling millions of people who would rather stay. (According to the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group for immigrants, it would cost $315 billion to arrest, detain, and deport all 13.3 million living in the United States illegally or under a revocable temporary status.)That’s why forecasting a precise impact is impossible at this point. But if Mr. Trump accomplishes anything close to what he has pledged, many economists expect higher prices on goods and services and possibly lower employment rates for American workers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares159 Views

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    Why Trump’s Victory Is Fueling a Market Frenzy

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    Investors have been comforted by a clear election result and are anticipating tax cuts and deregulation from a second Trump administration.Donald J. Trump’s election victory reverberated through financial markets. And one week later, bets on the economy’s path and on corporate winners or losers — known as the “Trump trade” on Wall Street — are in full swing.Stock prices for perceived winners have snapped higher: Bank valuations have soared, as investors anticipate more lenient regulations. The same is true for many large companies seeking to consolidate through mergers and acquisitions, which have frequently been blocked or discouraged under President Biden.The share price of Tesla, run by Mr. Trump’s adviser and campaign benefactor Elon Musk, has surged by more than 40 percent since the election last week. Cryptocurrencies, which Mr. Trump has pledged to lend more support, popped as well, with Bitcoin hitting record highs.Based on the president-elect’s promises of drastic immigration enforcement, which might increase demand for detention services, the shares of private prison operators also rose sharply.Presumed losers slumped in price, including smaller green energy firms benefiting from Biden-era tax credits. A range of retailers and manufacturers reliant on imported goods have also suffered, because they may be negatively exposed to tariffs that Mr. Trump has floated.The stock market overall, though, has ripped to new highs, surpassing the records it set earlier in the year.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More