Inflation (Economics)

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Rising Inflation Underscores Risks in Trump’s New Tariff Threats

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New data showing price increases last month could foreshadow even higher costs if the president imposes steep tariffs on Aug. 1.President Trump’s steep tariffs have started to weigh on consumers’ wallets, sending prices higher as the White House readies a more drastic — and potentially costly — expansion of its global trade war.The risks in Mr. Trump’s economic strategy began to show on Tuesday, with the release of data that found inflation had accelerated in June. Prices rose noticeably on appliances, clothing and furniture, products that are all heavily exposed to the president’s taxes on imports from Canada, China and other major trading partners.The inflation report undercut Mr. Trump’s continued assertions that Americans would not face financial repercussions from his increasingly aggressive trade brinkmanship. Since taking office, the president has imposed withering duties on allies and adversaries alike, with additional taxes on a range of products such as cars and steel.The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index recorded the first signs of what economists had predicted all along, with U.S. businesses and consumers shouldering a growing share of the burden from the taxes Mr. Trump has imposed on imports.The data also carried perhaps a new warning for the president as he prepares another round of tariffs on dozens of countries in about two weeks, including a 30 percent tax on the European Union. Some experts said that an uptick in inflation could foreshadow more significant price increases later, especially if Mr. Trump proceeds as planned.“Up until this report, you could have argued that inflation is on a journey lower,” said Padhraic Garvey, who leads ING’s research team for the Americas. “Now we are on a journey higher.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Economy Has Been Resilient. The New Round of Tariffs May Hit Harder.

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    The economy’s resilience so far to President Trump’s global trade war risks emboldening him and unleashing the sort of economic devastation that economists have long feared.President Trump has had little reason to scale back his global trade war ambitions with inflation subdued, unemployment stable and U.S. stock markets back to record highs.But the latest escalation, including 30 percent levies on the European Union, could deliver a much more painful blow to the United States. If the tariffs go into effect on Aug. 1, they could unleash the sort of devastation to consumers and businesses that economists have long worried about and that Mr. Trump has mostly avoided. Their fear stems from the specter of a stagflationary shock, in which inflation intensifies as growth stalls.“The higher that tariffs end up being, the more stagflationary it will be,” said Eric Winograd, an economist at the investment firm AllianceBernstein.Tariffs have already had an impact on the economy in a number of ways, and the levies now threatened against the European Union risk causing even more painful disruptions, given that the bloc and the United States are each other’s largest trading partner.Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in a statement that Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs “would disrupt essential trans-Atlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic.”So far, businesses have been able to mitigate some of the impact of Mr. Trump’s levies. To get ahead of the tariffs, they stockpiled products earlier this year, causing imports to surge before later crashing down. Americans have grown less confident about the economy as uncertainty surrounding Mr. Trump’s policies has frozen businesses in place.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Takes Reins on U.S. Economy With Policy Bill and Tariffs Renewal

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    His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.Then, on Monday, Mr. Trump began to issue his latest round of tariff threats, insisting that “we’re done” negotiating as economists warned about a potential surge in consumer prices that could arise from taxing imports.The White House also proceeded with its aggressive and legally contested plans to eliminate scores of federal regulations and deport millions of migrants. The immigration crackdown, in particular, could come to the detriment of many sectors, like agriculture, that rely heavily on foreign labor, experts believe.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares99 Views

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    White House Faces Risk of Economic Fallout From Iran Strike

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    President Trump, aware of how high gas prices could affect his popularity, demanded on social media that the U.S. “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.”President Trump on Monday began to confront the potential economic blowback from his military strikes on Iran, which threatened to send oil and gas prices soaring at a moment when U.S. consumers are already facing significant financial strains.The mere prospect of rising energy costs appeared to spook even Mr. Trump, who took to social media to push for more domestic drilling while demanding that companies “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN”; otherwise, they would be “PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”“I’M WATCHING!” the president added.By midday Monday, global oil markets appeared relatively muted, two days after Mr. Trump dispatched U.S. bombers on a mission to disable three Iranian nuclear sites. Prices rose over the weekend before ultimately settling, as Washington — and the rest of the world — braced for the possibility that Tehran may still retaliate.In one worst-case scenario, Iranian leaders could look to shutter or otherwise impede access to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the critical entrance point to the Persian Gulf. The world ships substantial amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas through the passage, so any interruption to commerce could cause energy prices to surge globally.A spike in energy costs could prove especially difficult for American consumers and businesses this summer, given that it could arrive at about the same time that Mr. Trump plans to revive his expansive, steep tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. Many economists expect those levies to push up prices after years of high inflation.In April, the president announced, then suspended, those sky-high duties, seeking to quell a global market meltdown over his disruptive and legally contested campaign to remake global trade. But Mr. Trump has not wavered in his plan to implement the tariffs on July 9, and many economists expect companies — which pay the duties when they source foreign products — to pass the added costs down to their customers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 163 Shares129 Views

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    Fed’s ‘Wait and See’ Approach Is Intact as New Risks Cloud Economic Outlook

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    The central bank is set to hold interest rates steady for its fourth straight meeting, a pause that could be extended through the summer.Through all the twists and turns of President Trump’s tariffs, a widespread immigration crackdown and the scuffles surrounding the Republican tax and spending bill, the Federal Reserve has stayed steady in its stance that it can go slow in taking action on interest rates.That message holds as officials gather on Tuesday for a two-day meeting, at which they are set to extend a pause in rate cuts that has been in place since January. It is also likely to endure throughout the summer, giving the Fed at least a couple more months before it must make a difficult decision about when and by how much to lower borrowing costs.“As long as the labor market continues to look solid but inflation continues to mainly move sideways, it’s going to be a ‘wait-and-see’ situation,” said Jon Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior adviser to Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair.When the central bank sets monetary policy, it has two goals in mind: keep inflation at 2 percent and ensure that the labor market is healthy. Currently, both aims are in sync.Inflation has stayed remarkably stable in recent months. The latest Consumer Price Index report, released last week, showed price pressures remain well contained. Employers are hiring less than they once did and fewer workers are entering the labor force, but layoffs have yet to rise in a meaningful enough way to lift the unemployment rate.The economy has all the makings of a soft landing, a rare feat in which the central bank tames inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. But such an outcome is not guaranteed. Mr. Trump’s policies have stoked fears that inflation will eventually re-accelerate, growth will slow and the labor market will weaken, forcing officials to make a tough decision about which of their goals to prioritize.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares149 Views

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    Where’s the Inflation From Tariffs? Just Wait, Economists Say.

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    Are predictions for a jump in consumer prices too early, or just wrong?Tariffs raise consumer prices. It’s a view held by most economists since long before President Trump entered the White House.Prices rose when Mr. Trump imposed levies on China in his first term, though that did not translate to noticeably higher inflation overall. Forecasters have been bracing for months for it to happen again on a much larger scale, given that his tariffs this time are substantially larger and more widespread.But data released this week showed that inflationary pressures remained more muted than expected at this stage, raising an uncomfortable question for economists: Are their predictions wrong?Economists are undeterred — for now. It’s not that tariffs aren’t affecting prices, they say. It’s that this isn’t happening in a significant enough way just yet to show up in broad measures of inflation like the Consumer Price Index. They argue that the impact will be much more significant this summer.“Inflation is very likely going to increase,” said Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, who formerly worked at the Federal Reserve’s regional banks in Dallas and New York. “It is a question of time, not so much of if.”Mr. Trump’s tariffs have already rippled through the economy in several ways.Businesses rushed to stock up on products before levies were imposed, and now imports of foreign goods are down sharply. Uncertainty has skyrocketed, stoked by the administration’s frequent pivots on its trade policy. On Thursday, it announced that steel tariffs would soon apply to appliances made with the metal, including dishwashers, washing machines and refrigerators. More

  • 125 Shares129 Views

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    As Trump’s Tariffs Reshape Trade, Businesses Struggle With Economic Uncertainty

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    At the worst point of the labor shortage that emerged in the wake of the Covid-19 lockdowns, Thunderdome Restaurant Group had 100 people sign up for a job interview and only 15 show up. Of the two workers it hired, one never came in.The job market has cooled significantly since then, and Joe Lanni, who runs the Cincinnati-based company with his brother, now faces a different dilemma: how to grow the business, which has over 50 locations, while controlling costs as concerns about the economy spread.So they’re rethinking menu items like freshly made tortillas that require a dedicated full-time worker. They are also planning to shutter a handful of locations where sales have been softest, while adding more outposts of their fast casual restaurants that are doing well.Uncertainty about the economy has skyrocketed as President Trump has begun to radically reshape the global trading system with tariffs, cut off a crucial supply of workers with an immigration crackdown and floated big changes to the rules and regulations that govern how businesses operate. Consumers, who fuel the American economy, have become more hesitant to spend, and according to recent surveys, both the services and manufacturing sectors are slowing.But the economy does not appear to be at the cliff’s edge just yet, and employers like Mr. Lanni don’t want to be too cautious and miss out on opportunities.As his restaurants gear up for outdoor service this summer, Mr. Lanni said, he still expects head count across the company to swell by about 200 people, to around 1,500 employees, before receding in the fall. The stakes are high, however.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Criticizes the Fed in a Private Meeting With Powell

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    Jerome H. Powell stressed in his first meeting since the president returned to the White House that policy decisions would be “based solely on careful, objective and nonpolitical analysis.”President Trump revived his criticism of the Federal Reserve in a private meeting with its chair, Jerome H. Powell, on Thursday, saying it was a mistake not to lower interest rates.The meeting, which was organized at Mr. Trump’s request, is the first since the president returned to the White House.Mr. Powell and Mr. Trump discussed how the economy was evolving with regards to inflation, the labor market and growth. The chair did not share his expectations for monetary policy, the Fed said in a statement.He told the president that such decisions would “depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook,” according to the statement, and would be “based solely on careful, objective and nonpolitical analysis.”Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Thursday that Mr. Trump expressed his belief to Mr. Powell that the Fed was making a mistake by not lowering interest rates.The meeting comes at a fraught moment for the economy, which now faces a variety of risks stemming from Mr. Trump’s policies. That has complicated the Fed’s job as it seeks to stamp out the remaining pressures on prices stemming from the pandemic and contain new ones that surface as a result of the tariffs, while also supporting a labor market that has begun to slow.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares189 Views

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    IMF Expects Trump’s Tariffs Will Slow Global Economic Growth

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    President Trump’s trade war is expected to slow economic growth across the globe this year, in large part because his aggressive use of tariffs is likely to weigh heavily on the United States, the world’s largest economy.The economic projections were released on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s decision to raise tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression.The president has imposed a 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports, along with punishing levies of at least 145 percent on Chinese goods that come into the United States. Mr. Trump also imposed what he calls “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s largest trading partners, including the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, although he has paused those until July as his administration works to secure bilateral trade deals.Mr. Trump’s approach has created paralyzing uncertainty for U.S. companies that export products abroad or rely on foreign inputs for their goods, dampening output just as economies around the world were stabilizing after years of crippling inflation. China and Canada have already retaliated against Mr. Trump’s tariffs with their own trade barriers, and the European Union has said it is prepared to increase levies if the United States goes ahead with its planned 20 percent tax.The World Economic Outlook report projects that global output will slow to 2.8 percent this year from 3.3 percent in 2024. In January, the fund forecast that growth would hold steady in 2025.The I.M.F. also expects output to be slower next year than it previously predicted.Much of the downgrade for this year can be attributed to the impact of the tariffs on the U.S. economy, which was already poised to lose momentum this year. The I.M.F. expects U.S. output to slow to 1.8 percent in 2025, down from 2.8 percent last year. That is nearly a full percentage point slower than the 2.7 percent growth that the I.M.F. forecast for the United States in January, when it was the strongest economy in the world.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More