Inflation (Economics)

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    IMF Warns Trump Tariffs Will Weaken Economy and Increase Inflation

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    Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned in a speech that protectionism erodes productivity.The world economy is expected to grow slower this year and experience higher inflation than previously anticipated, according to new forecasts to be released by the International Monetary Fund that will show the global fallout of the U.S. trade war.The growth projections, to be released early next week, will offer the clearest indication to date of the damage that President Trump’s economic policies are having on global output. Since taking office in January, Mr. Trump has imposed a wide range of tariffs on most of America’s trading partners, while ratcheting levies even higher on imports from China, Canada and Mexico.“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” Kristalina Georgieva, the I.M.F. managing director, said on Thursday in a speech ahead of the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”Ms. Georgieva’s comments added to a growing chorus of top economic officials, including the heads of the Federal Reserve and the World Bank, who have sounded alarms this week about the potential harm that Mr. Trump’s policies could cause.The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered interest rates, saying that “the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.” Central bankers, finance ministers and other policymakers will gather in Washington next week as they continue to grapple with how to respond.Ms. Georgieva was careful in her criticism of the Trump administration’s policies, which have created widespread uncertainty for businesses and are disrupting international supply chains. But she made clear her concerns about the costs of protectionism.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Powell Warns Trump Tariffs Could Trigger Higher Inflation and Slower Growth

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    Jerome H. Powell warned that President Trump’s tariffs could lead to a “challenging scenario” for the central bank.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, stressed that the tariffs announced so far go well beyond what the Fed had expected even in its worst-case scenario.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesAs President Trump’s trade policy has started to take shape, officials at the Federal Reserve have been more vocal about how such sweeping tariffs will affect the economy.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank, recently warned that levies of the scope and scale Mr. Trump was pursuing would most likely lead to even higher inflation and slower growth than initially expected — the makings of what’s known as a stagflationary shock.Mr. Powell expanded on those remarks on Wednesday, stressing that the tariffs announced so far go well beyond what the Fed had expected even in its worst-case scenario. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, he laid out in greater detail how the Fed would deal with a situation in which its goals for a healthy labor market as well as low and stable inflation clashed with each other.“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Mr. Powell said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”In a moderated discussion after his speech, Mr. Powell said the Fed would have to make “what will no doubt be a very difficult judgment” about which of its goals to prioritize.Mr. Powell’s comment accelerated a sell-off in stocks, with the S&P 500 ending the day down more than 2 percent. U.S. government bonds rallied, while the dollar continued to weaken against a basket of major currencies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Under Pressure as Inflation Expectations Surge

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    Federal Reserve officials have had one clear message since President Trump sharply escalated the global trade war this month. Keeping inflation expectations in check as price pressures rise is their No. 1 priority.On Friday, they faced a big setback.A new survey released by the University of Michigan found that as consumer sentiment took another nosedive because of fears associated with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, expectations about inflation — in the year ahead and over a longer time horizon — jumped sharply.Over the next 12 months, respondents now expect inflation to surge to 6.7 percent, the highest reading since 1981 and a significant increase from the March level of 5 percent. In five years’ time, they are bracing for inflation to stay stuck above 4 percent. The Fed’s goal is 2 percent inflation.There are reasons to take this data with a grain of salt. For one, the survey tends to reflect political biases. Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Democrats, once optimistic about the outlook, have turned much more downbeat, about not only inflation but also growth and the labor market. Republicans, meanwhile, have flipped from being far more pessimistic during Biden’s presidency to much more positive.On the margins, that political divide may be beginning to narrow, with the decline in sentiment in April “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” according to Joanne W. Hsu, director of the consumer surveys. Independents are also starting to change their opinions in a distinct way, accounting for a large part of the rise in longer-run inflation expectations.What has helped to somewhat alleviate concerns about the survey findings is the fact that market measures of longer-run inflation expectations, which are based on U.S. government bonds, have stayed far more stable. The divergence has been so stark as to prompt Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, to refer to the University of Michigan survey as an “outlier,” as recently as last month.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares189 Views

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    Powell Warns Trump’s Tariffs Risk Stoking Even Higher Inflation and Slower Growth

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    Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, warned that President Trump’s tariffs risk stoking even higher inflation and slower growth than initially expected, as he struck a more downbeat tone about the outlook, despite the economy so far remaining in a “good place.”“While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” he said. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”Mr. Powell characterized the risks of that outcome, which he warned could include higher unemployment, as “elevated.”“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” he said in a speech at a conference in Arlington, Va., on Friday.“Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices,” he said. Higher inflation stemming from tariffs could show up “in the coming quarters,” he said.Mr. Powell added that the Fed’s “obligation” was to ensure that a “one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Job Market Has Been Resilient. The Trade War Could Be Its Undoing.

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    For three years, the U.S. economy has been buffeted by rapid inflation, high interest rates and political instability at home and abroad. Yet it has proved surprisingly resilient, supported by the sturdy pillars of robust consumer spending, a rising stock market, and healthy balance sheets for households and businesses alike.But one by one, those pillars have begun to crack under the weight of tariffs and uncertainty. The all-out global trade war that President Trump declared on Wednesday could be enough to shatter what had arguably been the economy’s final source of support, the strong job market.“The strength of the consumer is coming down to the jobs market,” said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo. “And it’s increasingly perilous.”The sweeping tariffs that Mr. Trump announced on Wednesday, and the duties that U.S. trading partners quickly imposed in retaliation, sent stock indexes around the world tumbling on Thursday. The effects won’t be limited to the financial markets: Economists say tariffs will raise prices for consumers and businesses, which will lead employers to pull back on hiring and, if the tariffs remain in place long enough, lay off workers.“If the economy isn’t growing as fast, or it isn’t growing at all, you don’t need as many workers,” Ms. House said.Economists will get their latest glimpse of the job situation on Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March figures on hiring and unemployment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Global Trade War Makes the Fed’s Task Tougher

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    Until a few months ago, the Federal Reserve appeared close to achieving something that many doubted was possible. The economy looked on the cusp of a “soft landing,” a situation where inflation was headed back to the central bank’s 2 percent target without a recession. That put the central bank on track to steadily lower interest rates until borrowing costs reached a level that neither revved up growth nor slowed it down.President Trump’s global trade war has thrown a wrench in those plans. Facing extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook, the central bank has put further interest rate cuts on hold until it has a better sense of how tariffs will affect the economy.What policymakers are trying to sort out is whether they should be more concerned about the hit to growth that is expected from these levies or the probable boost to consumer prices. The “nightmare scenario,” according to Donald Kohn, the former vice chair of the Fed, is one in which inflation rises at the same time that the economy falters, a combination that carries the whiff of stagflation.Making that assessment is by no means a straightforward exercise. Much will depend on how long the tariffs are in place, how other countries retaliate, and how consumers and businesses adapt. Officials are also keeping close tabs on other aspects of the Trump administration’s economic agenda, including steep government spending cuts, immigration restrictions and deregulation. Tax cuts are also on the docket, but because those require congressional approval, their timing and scope remain unclear.At this stage, the economic data presents a mixed picture. Growth in the final quarter of last year was solid and the labor market has yet to show real signs of weakness. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains historically low and layoffs have yet to rise in a material way.Most Americans do not expect this to last. According to recent sentiment surveys, the mood has significantly soured on the outlook because of Mr. Trump’s policies. Consumers now expect slower growth, higher unemployment and resurgent inflation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares139 Views

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    Inflation Remained Sticky Ahead of Trump’s Escalating Trade War

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    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed underlying price pressures persisting in February.Americans hoping for some relief on inflation suffered a setback in February, as new data showed underlying price pressures intensifying even before the latest escalation in President Trump’s trade war.The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, after stripping out volatile food and energy items, climbed 2.8 percent in February from a year earlier, outpacing January’s annual pace. On a monthly basis, these prices ticked up another 0.4 percent, higher than the monthly increase in January.Overall inflation came in at 2.5 percent, a level that sits well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and has been more or less in place since November.The latest data from the Commerce Department highlights the extent of the challenge the central bank is confronting. Its debate over what to do about interest rates has been complicated by a rapidly escalating trade war, one that has bred extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook.On Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on cars and car parts imported into the United States and has vowed to unveil another set of tariffs next week.With the scope and scale of the tariffs not yet clear, and a host of other policies pertaining to immigration, taxes and deregulation still being worked out, the Fed has opted to stand pat until it gets more clarity about what exactly Mr. Trump will enforce and how consumers and businesses will respond.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More