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    Trump’s Promises to Cut Inflation Are Unrealistic, Many Economists Say

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    Economists and analysts are dubious of Trump’s promises to slash gas prices or prod interest rates lower.As he seeks to return to the White House, former President Donald J. Trump has pledged to cut Americans’ energy costs in half in the span of a year, part of a plan to reduce inflation and drive mortgage rates back toward record lows.But economists and analysts — and Mr. Trump’s own record from his first term — suggest that it is unlikely that Mr. Trump can deliver on those promises.Mr. Trump’s vow to dramatically reduce Americans’ cost of living hinges in part on his plans to quickly expand oil and gas drilling and reduce government impediments to power plant construction, which he says would slash energy bills by “more than half.” As prices fall, he regularly states, interest rates will come down, along with mortgage rates.But Mr. Trump has not cited modeling or other economic analysis to support his assertions. Economic research and historical experience suggest that presidents have only a limited effect on locally regulated electric utilities or on the cost of oil, which is a globally traded commodity.“He doesn’t really have the tools to lower oil prices enough to cut gasoline prices in half,” said Steven Kamin, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute and former Federal Reserve economist.In all, experts and past evidence suggest that Mr. Trump is over-promising on key economic issues related to prices and interest rates. And that fits with a pattern he established during his earlier campaigns — one in which he emphasizes big, catchy outcomes with little attention to costs or how he might make good on his pledges.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    For the Fed, a Sign That the Job Market Is Cooling but Not Cracking

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    Federal Reserve officials are moving toward their first rate cut since the 2020 pandemic downturn as they try to keep the economy from cooling too much. Friday’s fresh jobs data gave them reasons for both comfort and concern.Unemployment eased slightly to 4.2 percent in August, from 4.3 percent in July — a sign that joblessness has not started a relentless march upward, which is welcome news for both American workers and Fed officials. But hiring was weaker than economists had expected, with 142,000 jobs added in August.Altogether, the report suggested that the job market was slowing, but not imploding, more than two years into the Fed’s campaign to slow the economy with higher interest rates. That has kept Fed officials noncommittal and investors guessing about just how much the Fed will cut rates this month.Fed policymakers raised interest rates starting in 2022 to tap the brakes on a hot economy. At the time, hiring was rapid and wage growth robust, and officials worried that a burst of rapid inflation would not fade on its own against that backdrop. They ultimately lifted borrowing costs to a more-than-two-decade high of 5.3 percent, where they remain.But inflation has been cooling notably and wage gains have been steadily moderating, so Fed officials have become increasingly wary of overdoing it. They wanted to return the job market and economy to a sustainable pace, but they do not want to cause either to crash.That is why the Fed is poised to lower interest rates. The question has been whether policymakers will cut rates by a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point at their Sept. 17-18 gathering. That was one reason that Wall Street was intently focused on Friday’s jobs report: If it showed clear cracks in the labor market, investors expected it to prod the Fed toward a bigger rate cut.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Job Market Shifts to Lower Gear

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    Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, fewer than economists had expected, and previous months were revised downward.The labor market appears to be treading water, with employers’ desire to hire staying just ahead of the supply of workers looking for jobs.That’s the picture that emerges from the August jobs report, released on Friday, which offered evidence that while softer than it has been in years, the landscape for employment remains healthy, with wages still growing and Americans still eager to work.“This report does not indicate that we’re taking another step toward a recession, but we’re still seeing further signs of cooling,” said Sam Kuhn, an economist with the recruitment software company Appcast. “We’re trending more closely to a 2019 labor market, than the labor market in 2010 or 2011.”Employers added 142,000 positions last month, the Labor Department reported. That was somewhat fewer than forecast, bringing the three-month average to 116,000 jobs after the two prior summer months were revised down significantly. Over the year before June, the monthly average was 220,000, although that number is expected to shrink when annual revisions are finalized next year.The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, alleviating concerns that it was on a steep upward trajectory after July’s jump to 4.3 percent, which appears to have been driven by weather-related temporary layoffs.In other signs of stability, the average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours and wages grew 0.4 percent over the month, slightly more than economists had expected but not enough to add significant fuel to inflation.Wages Are Outpacing InflationYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Job Hunting Is a Challenge for Recent College Grads

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    Unemployment is still low, but job seekers are competing for fewer openings, and hiring is sluggish. That’s a big turnaround from recent years.For much of the last three years, employers were fighting one another for workers. Now the tables have turned a bit. Few employers are firing. Layoff rates remain near record lows. But fewer employers are hiring.That has left job seekers, employed or unemployed, competing for limited openings. And younger, less experienced applicants — even those with freshly obtained college degrees — have been feeling left out.A spring survey of employers by the National Association of Colleges and Employers found that hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class were below last year’s. And it showed that finance, insurance and real estate organizations were planning a 14.5 percent decrease in hiring this year, a sharp U-turn from its 16.7 percent increase last year.Separately, the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the overall pace of hiring in professional and business services — a go-to for many young graduates — is down to levels not seen since 2009.For recent graduates, ages 22 to 27, rates of unemployment and underemployment (defined as the share of graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree) have risen slightly since 2023, according to government data.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why This Jobs Report Could Be the Most Pivotal One in Years

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    It’s tough to overstate how much hinges on Friday’s employment update, from the path for interest rates to the economic outlook.A fresh jobs report set for release on Friday could mark a turning point for the American economy, making it one of the most important and closely watched pieces of data in years.The employment numbers will shed crucial light on whether a recent jump in the unemployment rate, which tracks the share of people who are looking for work but have not yet found it, was a blip or the start of a problematic trend.The jobless rate rose notably in July after a year of creeping higher. If that continued in August, economists are likely to increasingly worry that the United States may be in — or nearing — the early stages of a recession. But if the rate stabilized or ticked down, as economists forecast, July’s weak numbers are likely to be viewed as a false alarm.The answer is coming at a pivotal moment, as the Federal Reserve moves toward its first rate cut since the 2020 pandemic.Central bankers have been clear that they will lower interest rates at their meeting on Sept. 17-18. Whether that cut is a normal quarter-point reduction or a larger half-point move could hinge on how well the job market is holding up. It is rare for so much to ride on a single data point.“It matters a lot,” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a research firm. “It’s going to set the tone for the Fed, and that’s going to set the tone for global monetary policy and markets.”Unemployment and UnderemploymentThe jobless rate historically jumps during recessions.

    Unemployment is the share of people actively looking for work; underemployment also includes people who are no longer actively looking and those who work part time but would prefer full-time jobs.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stays Cool, Keeping a Rate Cut Imminent

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    Inflation remained cool in July, based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, keeping the Federal Reserve on track for rate cuts.Inflation held steady in July on a yearly basis and consumer spending was robust, fresh data released on Friday showed, the latest sign that progress toward cooler price increases remains firmly intact even as the economy holds up.The release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation number, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that yearly inflation was 2.5 percent. That was in line with both the previous month and with economist forecasts.After stripping out food and fuel prices, both of which jump around, a “core” index was up 2.6 percent from a year earlier. That figure gives economists a clearer grasp on the underlying trend in inflation.This month, Fed officials and Wall Street analysts are likely to look closely at the monthly inflation numbers. Because inflation climbed slowly last summer, the annual numbers are being measured against cool readings from last year. When comparing July’s prices to June’s, inflation climbed slightly: 0.2 percent in both the headline and the core measures.The likely takeaway for Fed officials is that inflation continues to gradually moderate — keeping them on track to begin lowering interest rates next month. While the yearly number remains above the Fed’s 2 percent goal, it is down substantially from a peak of more than 7 percent in 2022.This is the last P.C.E. report the Fed will receive before its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, although officials will get a Consumer Price Index report on Sept. 11. That inflation measure comes out earlier in the month than the personal consumption measure and feeds into the P.C.E. report.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Harris and Trump Have Differing Plans to Solve Housing Crisis

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    The two presidential nominees are talking about their approaches for solving America’s affordability crisis. But would their plans work?America’s gaping shortage of affordable housing has rocketed to the top of voter worry lists and to the forefront of campaign promises, as both the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald J. Trump, promise to fix the problem if they are elected.Their two visions of how to solve America’s affordable housing shortage have little in common, and Ms. Harris’s plan is far more detailed. But they do share one quality: Both have drawn skepticism from outside economists.Ms. Harris is promising a cocktail of tax cuts meant to spur home construction — which several economists said could help create supply. But she is also floating a $25,000 benefit to help first-time buyers break into the market, which many economists worry could boost demand too much, pushing home prices even higher. And both sets of policies would need to pass in Congress, which would influence their design and feasibility.Mr. Trump’s plan is garnering even more doubt. He pledges to deport undocumented immigrants, which could cut back temporarily on housing demand but would also most likely cut into the construction work force and eventually limit new housing supply. His other ideas include lowering interest rates, something that he has no direct control over and that is poised to happen anyway.Economist misgivings about the housing market policy plans underline a somber reality. Few quick fixes are available for an affordable housing shortfall that has been more than 15 years in the making, one that is being worsened by demographic and societal trends. While ambitious promises may sound good in debates and television ads, actual policy attempts to fix the national housing shortfall are likely to prove messy and slow — even if they are sorely needed.Here’s what the candidates are proposing, and what experts say about those plans.Harris: Expand Supply Using Tax Credits.Ms. Harris is promising to increase housing supply by expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, providing incentives for state and local investment in housing and creating a $40 billion tax credit to make affordable projects economically feasible for builders.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Fix a Global Housing Affordability Crisis

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    Central bankers are lowering borrowing costs, but that won’t be a cure-all for a widespread lack of affordable housing.To Moira Gallagher, 38, buying a house in Anchorage would be a step toward financial stability for her growing family. But even with a six-figure household income and stable jobs, she and her husband have struggled to make a purchase.High mortgage rates, limited housing supply and historically poor affordability have kept buying a home stubbornly out of reach for Ms. Gallagher, an economic researcher who is expecting her third child. Three- or four-bedroom homes in good school districts are both hard to come by and prohibitively expensive.“It makes it hard to feel secure,” she said. “It affects everything.”From Anchorage to Amsterdam, many developed and even emerging economies are confronting a similar problem: Housing supply is failing to meet demand, helping to push home prices to levels that are out of reach even for middle-income families.Affordability problems have been exacerbated by high central bank interest rates, which officials across the globe have been using to tackle rapid inflation. Those policy rates trickle through financial markets to elevate mortgage rates — making it even more expensive for borrowers to buy a home and for builders to finance construction for new houses and apartments.The second part of that equation is now poised to change. Central banks in many economies are lowering interest rates or preparing to do so imminently. The European Central Bank and Bank of England are already cutting borrowing costs, and the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled last week that it would start reductions in September.But those rate cuts are unlikely to be a panacea for housing affordability.While the shift in central bank stance is already translating into somewhat lower mortgage rates in many countries, borrowing costs are not expected to fall back to the levels that prevailed during the 2010s. Several economists said 30-year mortgage rates in the United States, for instance, could end up in the 5.5 to 6 percent range, down from their 7.5 percent peak last year but still up notably from the 4 percent that was normal before the pandemic.Home Prices Jump in Developed WorldHow inflation-adjusted home prices are shaping up across advanced economies.

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    O.E.C.D. house price indexes, 2015=100
    Data reflects first quarter of each year.Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentBy The New York TimesWhat Share of Income Does a Typical Home Cost? Across metro areas in the United States, the cost of owning a typical home has been rising as a share of the local median income.

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    Share of income that would go to owning standard home
    Source: The Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability MonitorBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More