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    Trump’s New Crackdown on China Is Just Beginning

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    The administration is positioning itself to clamp down on Chinese investment and access to technology. But the wild card may be the president himself.President Trump’s tough talk on China typically centers on tariffs. But a closer look at the decisions he has made since taking office shows that the president is considering a far wider set of economic restrictions on Beijing, ones that could hasten America’s split from a critical trading partner.The Trump administration has so far proposed expanding restrictions on investments flowing between the United States and China. It has appointed officials who, because of national security concerns, are likely to push for more curbs on Chinese investments and technology sales to China. And Mr. Trump has ushered in a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, a move that he called an “opening salvo.”After years in which officials from both parties gradually pared back America’s economic relationship with China, Mr. Trump’s moves suggest that he is prepared to sever ties more aggressively.Samm Sacks, a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, said the investment memorandum that the administration issued on Friday read like “a call to finish the unfinished task of fully unwinding commercial ties with China.”“So far, pragmatists have prevailed in getting a more narrow version of decoupling,” Ms. Sacks said.The pronouncements could be “a bargaining tool” for Mr. Trump to kick off negotiations with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, Ms. Sacks said. “But should that fall apart or not work out — which is probably most likely — I see this as the blueprint to finish the job of decoupling.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What Germany’s Election Result Means for Its Economy

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    The next German government faces calls to loosen borrowing rules, slash energy costs and spur innovation. It won’t be easy.Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democrats emerged victorious in Germany’s election on Sunday, but the celebrations may be short. The next government, almost certainly led by Mr. Merz as chancellor, faces a stagnant economy, President Trump’s threat to put tariffs on the country’s crucial export industries and a fourth year of war in Ukraine.What’s more, the ability to address these issues is hamstrung by strict limits on government debt and deficits, making it difficult to finance higher military spending, update crumbling infrastructure and carry out other initiatives that economists say are crucial to spur growth.A dispute over this rule, known as the debt brake, brought down the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the center-left Social Democrats, paving the way for Sunday’s early election. But relaxing the rule would require a two-thirds majority in Parliament to amend the Constitution, and the election outcome suggests it would be difficult to muster that much support.Already on Monday, Mr. Merz was facing calls from other politicians, economists and even the traditionally conservative central bank for the new government to find a way to adjust the spending limits to fit the country’s urgent economic demands.“In principle,” the Bundesbank wrote in a report on Monday, “it is entirely justifiable to adapt the debt brake’s borrowing limit to changing conditions when the public debt ratio is low.” German government debt is just over 60 percent of gross domestic product, far lower than in countries like Britain, France and the United States, where debt is near or above 100 percent of G.D.P.But after Sunday’s election, the two-party coalition that Mr. Merz hopes to form between his Christian Democrats, which won 208 seats, and the Social Democrats, with 120, will have to rely on other parties to achieve the two-thirds majority in Parliament necessary to change the Constitution.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Senate Confirms Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary

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    The Senate on Tuesday voted 51 to 45 to confirm Howard Lutnick to be President Trump’s commerce secretary, putting in place one of the administration’s top economic officials who will help oversee an agenda around tariffs and protectionism.Mr. Lutnick, who was the chief executive of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, became a central economic adviser to Mr. Trump over the past year and led his transition team. He has defended tariffs as a tool to protect U.S. industries from international competition, promoted lower corporate taxes and called for an expansion of energy production.As commerce secretary, Mr. Lutnick will take on a broad portfolio that includes defending U.S. business interests worldwide and overseeing restrictions on technology exports to countries like China.At his confirmation hearing last month, Mr. Lutnick said he would take a tough stance on the department’s oversight of technology sales to China and back up U.S. export controls with the threat of tariffs. He said the recent artificial intelligence technology released by the Chinese start-up DeepSeek had been underpinned by Meta’s open platform and chips sold by the U.S. company Nvidia.“We need to stop helping them,” Mr. Lutnick said of China, adding, “I’m going to be very strong on that.”As the United States resumes economic negotiations with the country, Mr. Lutnick is expected to play a central role. Mr. Trump said the new commerce secretary would oversee the work of the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which is traditionally the hub of trade policy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can the Federal Reserve Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?

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    Top officials are grappling with how to handle potential price increases caused by the administration’s policies.As President Trump’s efforts to restructure the global trade system with expansive tariffs begin to take shape, one question continues to dog officials at the Federal Reserve: How will these policies impact the central bank’s plans to lower interest rates?One influential Fed governor made clear on Monday that he did not expect Mr. Trump’s policies to derail the Fed’s efforts to get inflation under control, suggesting instead that fresh interest rate cuts are still in play this year.“My baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a nonpersistent manner,” Christopher J. Waller, the official, said in remarks at an event in Australia Monday evening. “So I favor looking through these effects when setting monetary policy to the best of our ability.”Economists are concerned that tariffs, which are essentially taxes on American consumers, will increase prices in the United States, at least temporarily, and over time slow economic growth.Mr. Waller acknowledged that the economic impact of the tariffs could be larger than anticipated depending on how they are structured and later put in place. But he suggested that any uptick in prices from tariffs could be blunted by other policies, which could have “positive supply effects and put downward pressure on inflation.”Mr. Waller’s views matter given that he is one of the seven officials who make up the Board of Governors and votes at every policy meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Uncertainty About Economic Policy Is Hampering Business Decisions

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    The lack of clarity about tariffs and other policies could hurt hiring and investing. But the strong U.S. economy should provide a buffer.It is an axiom heard countless times in business school lecture halls and on corporate earnings calls: Uncertainty is bad for business.The U.S. economy is about to test that proposition like never before.The first weeks of the second Trump administration have been a dizzying whirlwind of economic policy moves: A spending freeze was declared, then rescinded. Federal programs, and even entire agencies, have been suspended or shut down. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, canceled, delayed or enacted — sometimes in a matter of days or even hours. Measures of economic policy uncertainty have soared to levels normally associated with recessions and global crises.Business leaders — many of whom cheered President Trump’s election victory, expecting lower taxes and reduced regulation — have been left shaking their heads.“Your guess is as good as mine what’s happening in Washington,” said Nicholas Pinchuk, chief executive of the automotive toolmaker Snap-on.“So far what we’re seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford Motor, told investors at a conference in New York this week.“It’s like your head is spinning with what’s coming down — you just never know,” said Chad Coulter, founder and chief executive of Biscuit Belly, a chain of breakfast restaurants based in Louisville, Ky.

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    Economic policy uncertainty index
    Note: Daily data, shown as biweekly average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    What to Know About VAT, the Tax System Used in Europe That Trump Despises

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    The president says the VAT system used across Europe gives other countries unfair trade advantages. Here’s how the system started.President Trump on Thursday ordered his advisers to determine new tariff rates on America’s trading partners, a move that he said would “correct longstanding imbalances in international trade.”As part of his plan, Mr. Trump has taken aim at the value-added tax, a system used widely in Europe and elsewhere to tax the consumption of goods and services. The president and his team describe the tax as giving other countries an unfair trade advantage over the United States.Here’s what to know.What is a value-added tax?It’s a consumption tax that adds tax on a good or service at each stage of production. The final VAT is the sum of the tax paid at each stage. This system is unlike a sales tax in the United States, which is imposed by states on the final sale of the good.In Europe, VAT rates vary by country, but on average are about 20 percent — far higher than state sales taxes in the United States, which averaged 6.6 percent in 2023, according to the Tax Foundation.Value-added taxes are assessed at each stage of production for a good or service. The cost is borne by the final consumer, not by the business. If the goods are exported, much of the value-added taxes are given back to the exporter. That provides an incentive for businesses to export goods instead of selling in their home market.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Tariffs Work

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    A pillar of President Trump’s policies has been tariffs, which are taxes on products imported from other countries. He has imposed or threatened to impose them as a way to influence global supply chains, raise revenue and extract concessions from other countries. But what can often be lost amid proclamations targeting other countries is who […] More

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    Trump Pushes Tariff Threats on Global Scale

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    With less than a month in office, the president has pursued trade actions that could shatter the global trading system and dwarf the trade measures he took over his entire first term.President Trump is pursuing a far more aggressive trade policy than he embraced in his first term, allowing his unfettered instincts about how to put America at the forefront to guide him with little pretense of investigations or extended deliberations.Since taking office, Mr. Trump has threatened punishing tariffs on goods from every global trading partner. That includes proposals to tax more than $1.3 trillion of imports from Canada, Mexico and China — many times the volume of trade his tariffs affected in his entire first term.On Thursday, Mr. Trump proposed his most aggressive and consequential measure to date with a global rework of tariffs — a move that made it clear that the president would have no qualms about weaponizing tariffs and antagonizing trading partners to extract concessions.Mr. Trump ordered his advisers to devise new tariff rates for other countries globally, based on the tariffs they charge the United States, as well as other practices, including other taxes they charge on U.S. goods and subsidies they provide to support their industries.The president’s decision to embrace what he calls “reciprocal tariffs” could shatter the commitments the United States has made internationally through the World Trade Organization. That would end decades in which the United States has generally abided by the commitments it made internationally and would potentially usher in a new era of corporate uncertainty and global trade wars.Some of Mr. Trump’s threats could amount to negotiating tactics and fail to materialize. He sees tariffs as a powerful persuasive tool, which he is readily deploying to try to force other countries to make concessions on migration, drug enforcement and even their territory. But he and his base of supporters also view them as a crucial policy in their own right, a way to reverse decades of factories leaving the United States and to create jobs and shrink trade deficits.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More