<!–> [–> <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –> <!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–> –><!–> [–><!–>Robert Maxim, a fellow at the Brookings Metro, a Washington think tank that has done similar analysis, said that other countries had particularly targeted Trump-supporting regions and places where “Trump would like to […] More
Trade wars with allies could spiral as the president tries to get trading partners to back down from retaliation with new threats of his own.For the second time this week, President Trump has threatened to disrupt trade with a close ally for retaliating in a trade war that he started — a tactic that could lead to compromise, or to economic spats that spiral further out of control.On Thursday morning, Mr. Trump tried to cow the European Union into submission, threatening in a social media post to put a 200 percent tariff on European wine and Champagne unless the bloc dropped a 50 percent tariff on U.S. whiskey. The European Union had imposed that tariff in response to levies that Mr. Trump put on global steel and aluminum on Wednesday.Mr. Trump deployed a similar tactic against Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to try to get Ontario to lift a surcharge on electricity sold to the United States. The province had imposed the charge after Mr. Trump put other tariffs on Canada this month.After Ontario suspended its surcharge, Mr. Trump walked back his threats.Over the last several weeks, Mr. Trump has presided over a confusing and potentially economically devastating back and forth of tariffs and tariff threats, playing a global game of chicken as he tries to get some of the United States’ closest allies and trading partners to back down.Mr. Trump has wielded the tariff threats without regard for their economic consequences and, increasingly, seemingly without regard for the impact on stock markets. The S&P 500 slumped again on Thursday after Mr. Trump threatened Europe and reiterated at the White House that he would impose big tariffs.When asked whether he might relent on Canada, which sent a delegation to the United States on Thursday to try to calm trade tensions, Mr. Trump said: “I’m not going to bend at all.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
President Trump has called the word tariff “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” He imposed hefty tariffs during his first term and promised expansive new ones as he pursued his second. On his first day back in the White House in January, he issued an executive order directing his cabinet picks to prepare even more tariffs.In the first 50 days of his second term, those sweeping actions have upended diplomatic ties, shaken markets and confounded entire industries. But so has President Trump’s whipsawing commitment to his tariffs, which he has paused, reversed or withdrawn — at times almost as soon as they took effect.Here’s a timeline of President Trump’s widening — and constantly shifting — tariffs, which as of Thursday included a threat to impose 200 percent levies on alcohol from the European Union.Jan. 20 🇨🇦 🇲🇽Hours after he was sworn in, Mr. Trump announced that he would implement additional 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting on Feb. 1, accusing both countries of not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States. Read more ›Jan. 26 🇨🇴Surprising even some of his own staff members, Mr. Trump announced on social media that he would immediately impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Colombia — and would raise them to 50 percent in one week — after its government turned back planes carrying deported immigrants. Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, briefly threatened tariffs of his own. But he quickly backed down, and soon so did Mr. Trump. That evening, the White House released a statement saying the government of Colombia had “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms” and the “tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve.” Read more ›Feb. 1 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 🇨🇳Mr. Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 percent tariffs on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10 percent tariff on China. The president said the tariffs were levied in response to his concerns about fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration. Canada and Mexico said they would retaliate with tariffs of their own. China threatened “countermeasures.” Read more ›We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
Inflation eased more than expected in February, a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with the prospect of higher prices and slower growth as a result of President Trump’s trade war.The Consumer Price Index was up 2.8 percent from a year earlier, after rising another 0.2 percent on a monthly basis. That was a step down from January’s surprisingly large 0.5 percent increase and came in below economists’ expectations.The “core” measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of the underlying trend, also ticked lower. The index rose 0.2 percent from the previous month, or 3.1 percent from a year earlier. Both percentages were below January’s increases.The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics underscored the bumpy nature of the Fed’s progress toward its 2 percent goal. Prices for consumer staples, such as eggs and other grocery items, are rising steeply again, but costs for other categories like gasoline fell. A 4 percent drop in airfares in February was a primary driver of the better-than-expected data.Egg prices rose another 10.4 percent in February, as an outbreak of avian influenza continued to exacerbate a nationwide egg shortage. Prices for eggs are up nearly 60 percent since last year. Food prices more broadly rose 0.2 percent, or 2.8 percent from a year earlier.The cost of used cars also rose 0.9 percent in February, although new vehicle prices declined slightly. Car insurance, which was a huge driver of the index’s unexpectedly large increase in January, rose again, but at a much slower pace of 0.3 percent. It is up just over 11 percent over the past year. More
Policymakers are grappling with “exceptionally high” uncertainty, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Wednesday, just hours after the European Commission announced tariffs on U.S. imports in response to levies imposed by the Trump administration. Later, Canada announced a new round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports.The unpredictability of trade policy and geopolitics, which is likely to mean more large economic shocks, will make it harder for central bankers to keep inflation at their 2 percent target, Ms. Lagarde said.There was a somewhat bewildered mood among some of the E.C.B. officials, economists and analysts at an annual gathering held in Frankfurt, where Ms. Lagarde delivered her speech. Participants reflected on the rapidly shifting economic environment stemming from the escalating trade tensions and a substantial increase in military spending planned by European countries, particularly Germany.Under different circumstances, this year’s conference could have seemed like more of a celebration: Inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.4 percent in February, near the central bank’s target, and policymakers have been able to cut interest rates six times since the middle of last year.Instead, President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs, and his shifting policies on military aid to Ukraine, are unnerving European leaders. In response, European officials are proposing to borrow more to fund defense and infrastructure investments, significantly altering the region’s fiscal situation. The conference began with one speaker emphasizing the importance of preparing for war in order to avoid war.“Established certainties about the international order have been upended,” Ms. Lagarde said. “Some alliances have become strained while others have drawn closer. We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago.”When introducing a panel, François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the French central bank, said, “We are aware this environment can change tweet by tweet from one day to the next.” He invited panelists to begin their presentations but noted they could be referring to something that may be reversed by the same afternoon.“We live in a world not only of uncertainty, but still more unpredictability and still more, these last days, irrationality,” he said. More
As a presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump promised an economic “boom like no other.”But eight weeks into his presidency, Mr. Trump is refusing to rule out a recession — a striking change in tone and message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction to the White House by promising to “make America affordable again.”His comments come as the stock market is tumbling — the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent Monday after falling 3.1 percent last week — and business leaders are spooked about the uncertainty over his tariffs. Even some Republicans, who fear retribution if they cross Mr. Trump, have started to raise concerns about his levies.The moment captures a fundamental challenge for Mr. Trump, a showman who makes absolute and sweeping promises that inevitably run into the reality of governing.The economy Mr. Trump inherited was by many standards in solid shape, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate that, while still higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, had declined substantially. But the uncertainty that his policies have injected into the outlook is a jarring contrast with the picture Mr. Trump painted on the campaign trail.“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”That vow to create an economic boom has come into conflict, at least for now, with the president’s favorite economic tool: tariffs. He promised those too during the campaign and, as economists warned, they are the primary driver of the country’s cloudy economic outlook. Forecasts from both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say a recession over the next year has become more likely because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
The European Union is putting tariffs on a range of products from the United States in retaliation to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and items that come from Republican-held states rank high on the hit list.The European Union plans to institute the tariffs in two phases: The first wave will take hold on April 1, and will impact goods that already had tariffs applied during Mr. Trump’s first term, such as bourbon, boats and motorcycles. For certain products like whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, those tariffs would be as much as a crushing 50 percent.The second wave is still being figured out, though the list of products that could be affected is already public — and is 99 pages long. In that phase, the E.U. is planning to add levies to goods worth about 18 billion euros, or 19.6 billion dollars, and is aiming for them to go into effect on April 13.The proposed goods include:Poultry, beef and porkSoybeansWine and sparkling wineBeerPants, shirts and other clothingHandbagsRefrigeratorsWashing machinesMowersExactly what those tariffs will look like remains to be seen. For now, Europe is consulting consumers, companies and policymakers across the 27-nation bloc as it finalizes the list. Many of the potential targets are largely produced in Republican-held areas, such as crops from the Louisiana district that elected Mike Johnson, the House speaker, and livestock from Nebraska and Kansas.The goal? Officials want to hit America where it hurts in order to force the United States to the negotiating table, while doing as little damage as possible to Europeans. More
President Trump escalated his fight with Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and pressing to turn one of America’s closest traditional allies into the 51st state. After several tense hours, both sides backed down, at least for now.It was the latest in a week of chaotic trade moves, in which the president startled investors and businesses that depend on trade and clashed with some of the country’s closest trading partners.In a post on his social media platform Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump wrote that Canadian steel and aluminum would face a 50 percent tariff, double what he plans to charge on metals from other countries beginning Wednesday. He said the levies were in response to an additional charge that Ontario had placed on electricity coming into the United States, which was in turn a response to tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on Canada last week.By Tuesday afternoon, leaders had begun to relent. The premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, said he would suspend the electricity surcharge, and Mr. Trump said at the White House he would “probably” reduce the tariff on Canadian metals.Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said Tuesday afternoon that Mr. Trump’s threats had succeeded in getting Canada to back down. “President Trump has once again used the leverage of the American economy, which is the best and biggest in the world, to deliver a win for the American people,” he said.As a result, he said that Canada would face the same 25 percent tariff on metals as all of America’s trading partners will when they go into effect at midnight. More
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