Fed’s Powell Signals an Upcoming Rate Cut in Jackson Hole Remarks
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in EconomyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference in Wyoming gets a lot of buzz. Here’s why it matters for Wall Street and the economy.Anyone who has flipped through newspapers or business television channels this week might have noticed two words on repeat: Jackson Hole.They refer to the premier central banking conference of the year, which is held late each August at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming. This year’s conference kicks off Thursday and runs through Saturday.To the uninitiated, it might seem weird that what is arguably the most important economic event in the world is held in remote Wyoming, two time zones away from the Federal Reserve’s Washington-based Board of Governors and 1,047 miles from its host, the Kansas City Fed. And the symposium itself is hardly your average conference. Loafers cede to cowboy boots. Attendees snack on huckleberry pastries (or swill huckleberry drinks) while discussing the latest economic papers.But if Jackson Hole is a little bit incongruous, it is also unquestionably important, an invite-only gathering where paradigm-shaping research is presented and momentous policy shifts are announced. The event has long been an obsession on Wall Street.This year will be no exception. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, is scheduled to speak Friday morning, and markets are waiting anxiously to parse his remarks for even the slightest hint about how much the Fed might cut interest rates at its meeting next month — and how quickly central bankers will reduce borrowing costs after that.Wondering how a monetary policy conference held at the tail end of August became such a big deal and why it has stayed that way? Curious whether this year’s Jackson Hole conference will matter for mortgage rates or job prospects?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
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in EconomyJerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, will deliver remarks as inflation cools and growth holds up — but as labor market weakening threatens to interrupt the soft landing.Two years ago, Jerome H. Powell took the podium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming and warned America that lowering inflation would require some pain.On Friday, Mr. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, will again deliver his most important policy speech of the year from that closely watched stage. But this time, he is much more likely to focus on how the Fed is trying to pull off what many onlookers once thought was unlikely, and maybe even impossible: a relatively painless soft landing.Both the Fed and the American economy are approaching a crossroads. Inflation has come down sharply since its 2022 peak of 9.1 percent, with the year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index falling to 2.9 percent in July. Given the progress, the critical question facing Fed officials is no longer how much economic damage it will take to wrestle price increases back under control. It is whether they can finish the job without inflicting much damage at all.That remains a big if.Consumer spending and overall economic growth have held up in the face of high interest rates, which are meant to cool demand and eventually weigh down inflation. But the job market is beginning to weaken. Revisions released this week showed that employers hired fewer workers in 2023 and early 2024 than was previously reported. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, up from 4.1 percent in June and 3.5 percent a year earlier. The latest jump could be a fluke — a hurricane messed with the data — but it could also be an early warning that the economy is hurtling toward the brink of a recession.That makes this a critical moment for the Fed. Officials have held interest rates at a two-decade high of 5.3 percent for a full year. Now, as they try to secure a soft and gentle economic landing, they are preparing to take their foot off the brake. Policymakers are widely expected to begin lowering rates at their meeting in September.Mr. Powell could use his speech to confirm that a rate cut is imminent. But most economists think that he will avoid detailing just how much and how quickly rates are likely to drop. Fed officials will receive a fresh jobs report on Sept. 6, providing a clearer idea of how the economy is shaping up before their Sept. 17-18 meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
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in EconomyJerome H. Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, struck a resolute tone in a speech at the central bank’s most closely watched conference.Jerome H. Powell kept the door open to future interest rate increases during his speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesJerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, pledged during a closely watched speech that his central bank would stick by its push to stamp out high inflation “until the job is done” and said that officials stood ready to raise interest rates further if needed.Mr. Powell, who was speaking Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, said that the Fed would “proceed carefully” as it decided whether to make further policy adjustments after a year and a half in which it had pushed interest rates up sharply.But even as Mr. Powell emphasized that the Fed was trying to balance the risk of doing too much and hurting the economy more than is necessary against the risk of doing too little, he was careful not to take a victory lap around a recent slowing in inflation. His speech hammered home one main point: Officials want to see more progress to convince them that they are truly bringing price increases under control.“The message is the same: It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Mr. Powell said, comparing his speech to a stern set of remarks he delivered at last year’s Jackson Hole gathering.Central bankers have lifted interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, up from near-zero as recently as March 2022, in a bid to cool the economy and wrestle inflation lower. They have been keeping the door open to the possibility of one more rate increase, and have been clear that they expect to leave interest rates elevated for some time.Mr. Powell kept that message alive on Friday.“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,” he said.But the Fed chair noted that “at upcoming meetings we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks,” and that officials would “decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.”That suggests that central bankers are not determined to raise interest rates at their upcoming meeting in September. Instead, they might wait until later in the year — they have meetings in November and December — before making a decision about whether borrowing costs need to climb further. Striking a patient stance would give officials more time to assess how the moves they have already made are affecting the economy.“I think this does pave the way for a pause at the September meeting, and leaves their options open after,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “We’re close to the top, we may be there, and they’re going to move carefully.”Mr. Powell made clear that the Fed was not in a rush to raise rates again, but he remained cautious about the risk of further inflation.Price increases have come down notably in recent months, to around 3 percent as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge. That is still higher than the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal, though it is down sharply from a 7 percent peak last summer.And there are signs of stubbornness lingering under the surface. After stripping out food and fuel for a look at the underlying trend, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge is still running at about twice the Fed’s goal.“The process still has a long way to go, even with the more favorable recent readings,” Mr. Powell said. “We can’t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters.”That is partly because the Fed is trying to assess how much its policy adjustments are really weighing on the economy and, through it, inflation.The Fed’s higher borrowing costs have been cutting into demand for cars and houses by making auto loans and mortgages more expensive, and they are probably discouraging business expansions and cooling the job market.But it is unclear just how severely the Fed’s current policy setting is weighing on the economy. Rates are much higher than the level that most economists think is necessary to keep the economy growing below its potential run rate, but such estimates are subject to error.“There is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint,” Mr. Powell acknowledged Friday.That is particularly relevant in the face of recent economic data, which has been surprisingly strong. Consumers continue to spend and companies continue to hire at a solid clip in the face of the Fed’s onslaught. The resilience has caused some economists to warn that there is a risk that the economy could speed back up, keeping inflation elevated.“We are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected,” Mr. Powell said. “Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.”Still, Mr. Powell also emphasized that the economy could be taking time to react to the policy moves already made, and that conditions are unusual in the wake of the pandemic: For instance, job openings have fallen by an unusual amount without pushing up unemployment.“This uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking,” he said.Mr. Powell’s counterpart, Christine Lagarde, who heads the European Central Bank, made a similar point about policy in the euro economy and globally during a separate speech at the Jackson Hole conference — though the uncertainties she emphasized were more long term.She underlined that the economy is changing fundamentally as labor shortages span many markets, technologies like artificial intelligence develop, and countries shift away from fossil fuels and toward green energy. And she said that in a changing world, overreliance on models and past data — or expressing too much confidence — would be a mistake.“There is no pre-existing playbook for the situation we are facing today — and so our task is to draw up a new one,” she said. “Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks requires an open mind and a willingness to adjust our analytical frameworks in real-time to new developments.”But Ms. Lagarde emphasized that it was critical to remain committed to achieving price stability, at the central bank’s current 2 percent inflation target, even in an uncertain world.Mr. Powell seemed to agree. During his own speech, he shot down a growing round of speculation among economists that the Fed could — or should — raise its inflation goal, which would make it easier to hit.“Two percent is and will remain our inflation target,” he said.And he finished the talk with the same line that he used to conclude his speech at last year’s Jackson Hole gathering, which was roundly seen as an aggressive stance against inflation.“We will keep at it until the job is done,” he said.Eshe Nelson contributed reporting. More
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in EconomyInvestors and economists are watching the event this week closely. How did a remote Wyoming conference become so central?Filmmakers have Cannes. Billionaires have Davos. Economists? They have Jackson Hole.The world’s most exclusive economic get-together takes place this week in the valley at the base of the Teton mountains, in a lodge that is a scenic 34 miles from Jackson, Wyo.Here, in a western-chic hotel that was donated to the national park that surrounds it by a member of the Rockefeller family, about 120 economists descend late each August to discuss a set of curated papers centered on a policy-relevant theme. Top officials from around the world can often be found gazing out the lobby’s floor-to-ceiling windows — likely hoping for a moose sighting — or debating the merits of a given inflation model over huckleberry cocktails.This shindig, while a nerdy one, has become a key focus of Wall Street investors, academics and the press. The conference’s host, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, seems to know a thing or two about the laws of supply and demand: It invites way fewer people than would like to attend, which only serves to bid up its prestige. But even more critically, Jackson Hole tends to generate big news.The most hotly anticipated event is a speech by the Fed chair that typically takes place on Friday morning and is often used as a chance for the central bank to send a signal about policy. Jerome H. Powell, the current Fed head, has made headlines with each and every one of his Jackson Hole speeches, which has investors waiting anxiously for this year’s. It is the only part of the closed-door conference that is broadcast to the public.Mr. Powell will be speaking at a moment when the Fed’s next moves are uncertain as inflation moderates but the economy retains a surprising amount of momentum. Wall Street is trying to figure out whether Fed officials think that they need to raise interest rates more this year, and if so, whether that move is likely to come in September. So far, policymakers have given little clear signal about their plans. They have lifted interest rates to 5.25 to 5.5 percent from near zero in March 2022, and have left their options open to do more.People will pay close attention to Mr. Powell’s speech, but “I think it’s about the tone,” said Seth Carpenter, a former Fed economist who is now at Morgan Stanley. “What I don’t think he wants to do is signal or commit to any near-term policy moves.”For all of its modern renown, the Jackson Hole conference, set for Thursday night to Saturday, has not always been the talk of the town in Washington and New York. Here’s how it became what it is today.It’s set in the formerly wild West.Jackson used to play host to a very different cast of characters: The town was once so remote that it was a go-to hideaway for outlaws.In 1920, when Jackson’s population was about 300, The New York Times harked back to a not-so-distant era when “whenever a serious crime was committed between the Mississippi River and the Pacific Coast, it was pretty safe to guess that the man responsible for it was either headed for Jackson’s Hole or already had reached it.”Jackson’s seclusion also meant that the area’s towering, craggy mountains and rolling valley remained pristine, making it prime territory for conservationists. The financier and philanthropist John D. Rockefeller Jr. stealthily acquired and then donated much of the land that would eventually become the Jackson Hole section of Grand Teton National Park. And around 1950, he began to construct the Jackson Lake Lodge.The lodge’s modern architecture was not initially beloved by the locals. (“‘A slab-sided, concrete abomination’ is one of the milder epithets tossed at the massive structure,” The Times quipped in 1955.) Among other complaints, Rockefeller’s donation to the park lacked resort perks: no golf course, no spa.But by 1982, its ample space and sweeping vistas had caught the eye of the Kansas City Fed, which was looking for a new location for a conference it had begun to hold in 1978.The gathering has happened there since 1982.The Jackson Lake Lodge was built by the financier John D. Rockefeller Jr. on land he had donated to Grand Teton National Park.David Paul Morris/BloombergHigh on its list of charms, the Jackson Lake Lodge was close to excellent fly fishing — a surefire way to appeal to the Fed chair at the time, Paul A. Volcker. He came, and between the A-list attendees and the location’s natural beauty, Jackson Hole quickly became the Fed event of the year.“About one-half of the 137 people invited this year attended, a remarkably high response,” The Times reported in 1985.The size of the conference has not changed much since: It averages about 115 to 120 attendees per year, according to the Kansas City Fed. The response rate has gone up markedly since 1985, though the Fed branch declined to specify how much.But the local context has shifted.Teton County, home to Jackson (now a bustling town of 11,000) and Jackson Hole, hosts more millionaires than criminal cowboys these days. It has become the most unequal place in America by several measures, with gaping wealth and income divides. The event, billed as rustic, now struggles to pretend that its backdrop isn’t posh.And the Fed gathering itself has gained more and more cachet. Alan Greenspan delivered the opening speech at the conference in Jackson Hole in 1991, when he was Fed chair, and then kept up that tradition for 14 summers until he stepped down.His successors have mostly followed suit. Mr. Powell has used his speeches to caution against overreliance on hard-to-determine economic variables, to unveil an entirely new framework for monetary policy and to pledge that the Fed would do what it took to wrangle rapid inflation.But it’s changing.Attention to Jackson Hole also deepened because of the 2008 global financial crisis, when central banks rescued markets and propped up economies in ways that expanded their influence. In the years that followed, uninvited journalists, Wall Street analysts and protest groups began to camp out in the lodge’s lobby during proceedings. Speaking at or presiding over a Jackson Hole session increasingly marked an economist as an academic rock star.Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed between 2011 and early 2023, was in charge as the event garnered more notice. She and her team responded to the intensified spotlight partly by shaking up who got to bask in it.Far fewer banking and finance industry economists have gotten invites to the event since 2014, partly in response to public attention to the Fed’s Wall Street connections after the financial crisis. The people who make the list tend to be current and former top economic officials and up-and-coming academics. Increasingly, they are women, people from racially diverse backgrounds and people with varying economic viewpoints.Ms. George started to hold an informal happy hour for female economists in 2012, when there were so few women that “we could all sit around a small table,” she recalled. It made her think: “Why aren’t these other voices here?”Last year, the happy hour included dozens of women.But the Jackson Hole conference could be entering a new era. Ms. George had to retire in 2023 per Fed rules, so while she helped to plan this conference, she’ll be passing the baton for future events to her successor, Jeffrey Schmid, a university administrator and former chief executive of Mutual of Omaha Bank. He started as Kansas City Fed president on Monday and will make his debut as a Fed official at the gathering this week. More
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in EconomyThe most anticipated economic event of the summer is set to happen on Friday, when Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, provides an update on the economic outlook that could detail how the central bank is thinking about inflation and the path ahead for interest rates.Mr. Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference near Jackson, Wyo., is always closely watched. But it is getting special scrutiny this year as investors grasp for any hint at what might come next for the Fed, which has been raising rates rapidly in its campaign to tamp down the fastest rate of inflation in 40 years. Markets are trying to guess when the central bank, which raised rates by an unusually quick three-quarters of a percentage point at each of its last two meetings, will slow down.Inflation has shown some early signs of moderating, which could point toward a less aggressive Fed policy path. But prices are still increasing at more than three times the pace the Fed aims for, creating a pressing challenge for consumers who are struggling to afford day-to-day necessities like rent and food as wages fail to keep up.As officials weigh both glimmers of hope and a still-worrying pace of inflation, they are attempting to achieve a delicate balancing act. The Fed is trying to avoid restricting the economy so much that it plunges the United States into an unnecessary recession, while restraining it enough to bring price increases fully and firmly back under control.Mr. Powell has historically used his remarks at the conference, colloquially called Jackson Hole for the area where it is held, to detail big ideas. He laid out a new framework for monetary policy at the gathering in 2020 and in 2021 provided reasons — which have since failed to pan out — for why inflation might fade.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5Inflation F.A.Q.What is inflation? More
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