More stories

  • in

    How a Government Shutdown Could Affect the Economy

    A federal government shutdown probably wouldn’t be enough to derail the solid U.S. economy. But it could inject more uncertainty into an already murky economic outlook.Funding for the federal government will lapse at the end of Friday if Congress doesn’t reach a deal to extend it. It is still possible that legislators will act in time to prevent a shutdown, or will restore funding quickly enough to avoid significant disruptions and minimize any economic impact.But if the standoff lasts beyond the weekend, most federal offices will not open Monday, and hundreds of thousands of government employees will be told not to work. Others will be required to work without pay until the government reopens.For those workers and their families, the consequences could be serious, especially if the impasse drags on. Federal law guarantees that government workers will eventually receive back pay, but that may not come in time for those living paycheck to paycheck. And the back-pay provisions don’t apply to consultants or contractors. During the last government shutdown — a partial lapse in funding in late 2018 and early 2019 — federal workers lined up at food pantries after going weeks without pay.For the economy as a whole, the effects of a shutdown are likely to be more modest. Many of the most important government programs, like Social Security and Medicare, would not be affected, and government services that are deemed “essential,” such as air traffic control and aviation security, can continue at least temporarily. Federal workers who put off purchases are likely to make them once their paychecks restart.Forecasters at Goldman Sachs estimate that a shutdown would exert a small but measurable drag on the economy, reducing quarterly economic growth by about 0.15 percentage points for every week the lapse in funding continues. Most of that toll, though not all, would reverse in the next quarter. Other forecasters have released similar estimates.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Starbucks Workers Say They Will Begin a Strike in 3 Cities on Friday

    The planned walkout in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle comes after talks between the company and the workers’ union failed to produce an agreement on raises.A union representing Starbucks workers said Thursday that baristas in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle would walk off the job Friday morning and that the strikes would spread to hundreds of stores by Christmas Eve unless the company improved its wage offer in contract negotiations.The union, which represents baristas at more than 500 company-owned stores in the United States — about 5 percent of the U.S. total — said it called the strike after a bargaining session with the company this week failed to produce better wage gains.The strike is expected to begin in about 15 stores across the three metropolitan areas, according to a union member familiar with the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.“Starbucks proposed an economic package with no new wage increases for union baristas now and a guarantee of only 1.5 percent in future years,” the union, Workers United, said in a statement.The guarantee would entitle unionized Starbucks workers to receive a wage increase of 1.5 percent even if the company raises wages nationwide by less than that amount in future years. If the company raised wages by more than that — as it did this year, with a recently announced increase of 2 percent — unionized workers would get the higher amount.Andrew Trull, a Starbucks spokesman, said union delegates “prematurely ended” this week’s negotiations. “It is disappointing they didn’t return to the table given the progress we’ve made to date,” he added.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Amazon Delivery Drivers at Seven Hubs Walk Out

    The retail giant said it expected its operations to be largely unaffected by the strike of some drivers at contracting firms Amazon uses to deliver packages.Workers who deliver packages from seven Amazon facilities across the country went on strike Thursday morning, according to the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the union that represents them.The Teamsters said thousands of workers had struck, but it was unclear how many people were participating in the action. Amazon said it expected the seven delivery hubs to operate normally.The drivers are employees of companies that Amazon uses to deliver packages to customers. Amazon has said it has no obligation to bargain with the drivers because they are not its employees. But the union and the workers said Amazon ultimately controlled their working conditions and was therefore obligated to negotiate a contract that would improve their pay and make the work less taxing.The National Labor Relations Board has investigated some of the cases and issued at least one complaint finding the drivers to be Amazon employees and accusing the company of breaking the law by failing to bargain with them.The Teamsters said in a statement that workers at other Amazon warehouses were prepared to join the strike. The largest group at Amazon represented by the union works at a Staten Island warehouse known as JFK8, which employs more than 5,000 people. Employees at the warehouse voted to unionize in 2022, but the company has yet to bargain with them and is challenging the election outcome.Workers involved in the strike say it could extend into early next week, perhaps into Christmas, but it’s unclear how big an impact the walkout will have on Amazon’s holiday deliveries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Tech Makes an Economic Case for Skilled Immigrants. Will Trump Bite?

    Silicon Valley hopes that tech giants like Elon Musk could help to push the incoming Trump administration toward offering more visas to highly skilled foreign workers.Aaron Levie, the chief executive of the cloud software company Box, said he was more hopeful than he had been at any point in the past 15 years that America could soon accept more highly educated immigrants — the sort of skilled foreigners he hires as software engineers.Mr. Levie recently posted on X that America’s immigration policies for high-skilled workers are “not responsive to the market,” and that Elon Musk, with his position in president-elect Donald J. Trump’s orbit, could fix them.“I agree,” Mr. Musk replied. The thread quickly filled with other tech workers and executives sharing stories of trying to get visas for themselves and their employees.Welcoming more high-skilled immigrants is “one of the highest leverage — maybe the highest leverage — thing you could do to make sure that America stays at the forefront,” Mr. Levie said in an interview.The technology industry considers that argument about economic competitiveness as one that could persuade Mr. Trump to allow increased levels of immigration for highly skilled workers. But the industry’s optimism clashes with past experience: The president-elect did not expand skill-based legal immigration during his first term in office. Instead, his immigration officials curbed visa programs for educated workers by overseeing them more stringently.And while some in Silicon Valley and corporate America are hoping that this time will be different, Washington policy analysts, lawyers and visa holders themselves are less certain.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Trump Backs a Longshoremen’s Union That Supported Him

    President-elect Donald J. Trump is supporting the International Longshoremen’s Association, which could strike soon if it doesn’t reach a deal on automation with employers.Leaders of some labor unions tried to establish good relations with Donald J. Trump before the election — and for one of them, that effort may already be paying off.President-elect Trump lent his support on Thursday to the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts. Contract negotiations between the union and employers have broken down over the use of port machinery that can move cargo without human involvement. The I.L.A. opposes it, believing it reduces jobs, but the employers, mainly large shipping companies, have said that the equipment moves goods more cheaply and efficiently.Writing on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he had met with I.L.A. leaders and that he sympathized with the union’s fears.“I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”The union suspended a short strike in October after securing a large wage increase, and agreed to keep negotiating with port operators until Jan. 15 on other parts of the contract, including provisions on how much automated machinery can be used.Mr. Trump won a second presidential term with the support of many union members, and he has vowed to protect American workers. And while it is unclear how much he will do to help the labor movement broadly, his backing of the I.L.A. suggests he could strengthen the hand of unions that have courted him.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    U.S. Data Agency Blames Old Tech and Other Failures for Missteps

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks jobs and inflation, issued a report on what caused embarrassing episodes in which data was released improperly.Outdated technology, inadequate funding and a failure to follow established procedures contributed to embarrassing missteps at the Bureau of Labor Statistics this year, a panel that examined the episodes said on Tuesday.Julie Su, the acting labor secretary, formed the 11-member group in September after a botched data release allowed some investors to see potentially market-moving employment data before the public. That followed two other episodes: one in February, in which an agency employee provided methodological information to finance industry “super users”; and another, in May, in which inflation data was inadvertently posted to the agency’s website half an hour before its scheduled release.The panel was chaired by a former Labor Department official and consisted mostly of current officials from the department and other federal agencies. It also included two members of the public. Ms. Su gave the group 60 days to “identify causes of and fixes to the inaccurate release of data” and report back.The panel found that the three episodes were “unique and unrelated,” and noted that none of them related to the quality or accuracy of the agency’s data. But it argued that even the perception that the agency was poorly run, or that favored groups had early access to information, threatened to erode public trust in government data.“The smallest glitch can undermine months of high-quality data work in a moment,” the panel wrote in its report.Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, echoed that message in a call with reporters on Tuesday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    November Jobs Report Shows Gain of 227,000; Unemployment Rises

    Hiring bounced back after disruptions from storms and a major strike.Job creation bounced back in November after disruptions from storms and a major strike, reinforcing a picture of modest employment expansion over the past several months.The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With upward revisions to September and October figures, the three-month average gain is 173,000, slightly higher than the average over the six months before that.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent in October, as fewer people were able to find work. But for those who had jobs, wages jumped more than expected and were 4 percent higher than they were a year earlier.Unemployment rate More