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    Trump Is Expected to Upend Biden Labor Policies Favoring Unions

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    After gains by organized labor under President Biden, a second Trump administration is likely to change course on regulation and enforcement.Joseph R. Biden Jr. promised to be the most pro-labor president in history. He embraced unions more overtly than his predecessors in either party, and filled his administration with union supporters.Labor seemed to respond accordingly. Filings for unionization elections spiked to their highest level in a decade, as did union victories. There were breakthroughs at companies like Starbucks and Amazon, and unions prevailed in organizing a major foreign auto plant in the South. A United Automobile Workers walkout yielded substantial contract gains — and images of Mr. Biden joining a picket line.As Donald J. Trump prepares to retake the White House, labor experts expect the legal landscape for labor to turn sharply in another direction.Based on Mr. Trump’s first term and his comments during the campaign — including his praise for Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, for what he said was Mr. Musk’s willingness to fire striking workers — these experts say the new administration is likely to bring fewer challenges to employers who fight unions. “There will be a concerted effort to repeal pro-worker N.L.R.B. precedents,” said Heidi Shierholz, a senior Labor Department official during the Obama administration, referring to the National Labor Relations Board.Experts like Ms. Shierholz, who is now president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute, said they also expected the Trump administration to ease up on enforcing safety rules, to narrow eligibility for overtime pay and to make it harder for gig workers to gain status as employees.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Could Trump’s Tariffs Lead to Higher Prices? Here’s What to Know.

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    The president-elect says that tariff is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” You may be hearing it a lot.President-elect Donald J. Trump has professed a belief in the power of tariffs for decades. Now, as he prepares to take office, they are a central part of his economic plan.Mr. Trump argues that steep tariffs on foreign goods will help benefit U.S. manufacturing and create jobs. His proposals would raise tariffs to a level not seen in generations. Many economists have warned of potentially harmful consequences from such a move, including higher costs for American households and businesses, and globally destabilizing trade wars.Here are five crucial things to know about Mr. Trump’s sweeping trade plans.Mr. Trump has floated several hefty tariff plans.While campaigning for the White House, Mr. Trump offered up a running list of tariffs. He talked about a “universal” tariff of 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products. He has proposed tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. And he has suggested removing permanent normal trading relations with China, which would result in an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.Mr. Trump has also promoted the idea of a “reciprocal” tariff, in which the United States would match the tariff rates that other countries put on American goods. He has suggested using tariff revenue to replace income taxes. And he has threatened tariffs of 100, 200 or even 1,000 percent on Mexico, saying the country should do more to stop flows of migrants and shipments of Chinese cars.The Biden administration has also raised tariffs on goods from China, but Mr. Trump’s plans are much larger — affecting trillions of dollars of products, rather than tens of billions.Mr. Trump says foreign companies pay the tariffs. That’s usually wrong.A tariff is a tax that is put on a product when it crosses a border. For instance, a company that brings its product into the United States — the importer — actually pays the tariff to the U.S. government.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    October Jobs Report Shows Hiring Slowed Amid Storms and Strikes

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    U.S. payrolls grew by only 12,000 in October, a figure that left markets placid but fueled political contention. Unemployment remained 4.1 percent.Job creation stalled in October, a month battered by strikes and hurricanes, presenting an unclear picture of where the labor market was headed even as overall economic growth remained impressive.Employers added only 12,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, substantially fewer than economists had forecast. The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, remained 4.1 percent.The report is the last before a presidential election in which polls have consistently found the economy to be a top issue for voters, and the low figure supplied a talking point for Republicans. It also strengthened the case for another interest rate cut when Federal Reserve policymakers meet next week.“It’s hard to say, ‘This was a strong report if it were not for the strikes and hurricanes,’” said Oliver Allen, a senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “If the numbers still look like that next month, and we have another step down in revisions, it’s a pretty weak set of prints.”Gains for August and September were revised downward, bringing the three-month average to 104,000 — down from 189,000 over the six months before that.Markets took the muddled data in stride, but the political reaction was fierce, with former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign saying the report was “a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy.”Wages Rise SlightlyYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Boeing Reaches New Deal With Union in Hopes of Ending Strike

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    The aerospace manufacturer’s largest union said it would put the contract to a vote on Monday by its 33,000 members, who rejected two earlier agreements.Boeing’s largest union said on Thursday that it would hold a vote on a new contract offer, after workers rejected two earlier proposals. The union’s 33,000 members have been on strike since Sept. 13, dealing a damaging blow to the struggling aerospace manufacturer.The offer was negotiated by company and union leaders, with help from Biden administration officials, including the acting labor secretary, Julie Su. In a statement, the union encouraged workers to accept the offer in voting scheduled for Monday.“It is time for our members to lock in these gains and confidently declare victory,” said a statement from the leaders of two chapters of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, who represent the workers on strike. “We believe asking members to stay on strike longer wouldn’t be right as we have achieved so much success.”If workers do not take the deal, they “risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future,” the union leaders warned. District 751 of the union represents the vast majority of the workers, while another chapter, District W24, represents the rest.The workers mostly support the company’s commercial airplane division in the Seattle area, where Boeing builds most such jets. They walked off the job after 95 percent of those voting rejected a contract that union and company leaders had negotiated. The workers rejected a second offer with better terms last week, with 64 percent voting against the proposal. The union has not said how many people participated in either vote.The new contract offer represents a slight improvement over the recently rejected proposal. It would raise wages cumulatively by more than 43 percent over the four years of the contract, up from nearly 40 percent in the last offer, according to details shared by the union. The deal also includes a $12,000 bonus for agreeing to the contract, which can be diverted in any amount to employee retirement plans. That figure combines a $7,000 ratification bonus and a $5,000 one-time retirement contribution in the previous offer.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Jobs Report on Friday May Be a Fluke and a Political Football

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    This close to an election, even the driest economic data can be politicized. So if the monthly jobs report lands on Friday with an unusually low number of jobs created in October, Republican campaigns may blast it out as a sign that the labor market has taken a turn for the worse. (Last month, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida reacted to a strong report by calling it “fake.”)That wouldn’t necessarily be true.The last couple of months have seen an unusual amount of disruption. First came the Boeing strike in September, taking some 35,000 workers off payrolls, plus another 6,000 from smaller strikes. Then came Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which spiked unemployment claims by about 35,000 in early October.All in all, economists are forecasting a gain of 110,000 jobs in October. That would be a significant step down from the 186,000 jobs added on average over each of the previous three months, pending any revisions. But it also wouldn’t be an accurate representation of employers’ appetite to hire.In general, a broad spectrum of data suggests that the labor market has settled into a moderate pace of job growth, enough to soak up the 150,000 or so people who enter the work force each month. The unemployment rate has fallen back to 4.1 percent, and overall economic growth came in strong last quarter, showing that the foundations of the economy are sound. More

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    Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

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    Consumers still give the economy poor marks, though the job market is strong and price increases have faded for months.Grocery inflation has been cooling sharply, but Tamira Flamer, 27, says she hasn’t noticed. What she knows is that paper plates and meat remain more expensive than they were a few years ago.“I feel like it’s been rough,” said Ms. Flamer, a mother of two who drives for Amazon, while standing outside a Dollar General near her home in Norristown, Pa., on Sunday.Ms. Flamer, an undecided voter who says she is most focused on economic issues, underscores a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential election barrels toward its final days.Voters say that they are very focused on the economy as they head to the polls, yet surveys suggest that they feel relatively glum about its recent track record. That could hurt Ms. Harris while helping her opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.The lingering pessimism is also something of a puzzle. The job market has been chugging along, although more slowly, overall growth has been healthy and even inflation is more or less back to normal. Inflation data released on Thursday showed that prices have increased by a mild 2.1 percent over the past year.Confidence has crept back up as inflation has cooled, but it remains much lower than it was the last time the economy looked as solid as it does today. That is true for both the University of Michigan’s confidence index and a separate measure produced by the Conference Board, an organization that conducts business and economic research.Large Swing in Republican ConfidenceRepublicans were optimistic about the economy when former President Donald J. Trump was in office, and turned more negative as soon as President Biden was elected.

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    Consumer Confidence Index
    Source: University of Michigan By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can Democrats Win Back Voters From Trump on Trade Policy?

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    The Biden administration has pursued a big shift in trade policy, but it’s not clear whether that will be enough to win votes.Since Donald J. Trump won over many working-class voters in 2016 with his vows to impose tariffs and rework “disastrous” trade deals, Democrats have been scrambling to win back supporters by taking a more protectionist trade approach.Over the last four years, the Biden administration spent more time emphasizing the harm trade policy has caused to American communities than the benefits. It hit the brakes on negotiating trade deals with other countries and chose to maintain and even increase Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products. And it pumped billions of dollars into new American factories to make semiconductors and solar panels.It’s a significant shift from the decades that both mainstream Democrats and Republicans spent working to promote trade and lower international barriers.For Vice President Kamala Harris, next week’s election will be a moment of truth for whether the strategy worked.Mr. Trump has helped bring trade to the forefront in presidential elections with his vitriolic criticisms of past policy and his proposals for high tariffs. It is an issue that resonates strongly with voters in Northern swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where manufacturing employment fell steeply in recent decades as factories moved abroad.Biden officials have been trying to persuade more trade-skeptical voters that their policies to encourage manufacturing in the United States are working, pointing to a recent surge in U.S. factory construction.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Alabama Prison Labor Program Faces Legal Challenges

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    In the back of a nondescript industrial park on the outskirts of Montgomery, Ala., past the corner of Eastern Boulevard and Plantation Way, there is a manufacturing plant run by Ju-Young, a car-part supplier for Hyundai. On a Tuesday in May, about half of the workers there — roughly 20 — were prisoners.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryThey were contracted to the company by the Alabama Department of Corrections as part of a “work-release” day labor program for inmates who, according to the state, have shown enough trustworthiness to work outside prison walls, alongside free citizens.The inmates bused there by the state make up just one crop of the thousands of imprisoned people sent to work for private businesses — who risk disciplinary action if they refuse.Sitting against a chain-link fence under the shade of a tree in the company parking lot, commiserating over small talk and cigarettes with fellow assembly workers, one of the imprisoned men, Carlos Anderson, argued that his predicament was simple. He could work a 40-hour week, at $12 an hour — and keep a small fraction of that after the state charges transportation and laundry fees, and takes a 40 percent cut of pretax wages — or he could face working for nothing at the prison.Under Alabama prison rules, there are thin lines between work incentives, forced labor and “involuntary servitude” — which reforms to the Alabama Constitution in 2022 banned. From the viewpoint of Mr. Anderson and more than a dozen other Alabama inmates interviewed by The New York Times, the ultimate message, in practice, is straightforward: Do this, or else.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More