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    January Jobs Report Contained Hopeful and Worrying News for the Fed

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    The Federal Reserve is tracking incoming labor figures as it decides how high interest rates need to go and how long they should stay elevated.WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials have said they are looking for the labor market to cool as they assess how much more they need to do to slow the economy, and the job report on Friday underscored that policymakers may still have a ways to go.Employers hired ravenously in January, adding 517,000 workers. The jobless rate dipped to a level not seen since 1969, and revisions to last year’s data showed that job growth was even stronger in 2021 and 2022 than previously understood — all signs that the demand for labor is booming.Yet at the same time, wage growth continued to moderate. Average hourly earnings climbed 4.4 percent over the year, more than forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists but less than the 4.8 percent year-over-year increase in December. Pay growth has been decelerating for months, though it remains faster than is typical and notably quicker than the pace that Fed officials have at times suggested would be consistent with their 2 percent inflation goal.For central bankers who are trying to bring down the fastest inflation in decades, the report offered both encouraging and worrying news. On one hand, the continued slowdown in pay increases was a welcome sign that, if it persists, could pave the way for slower price increases down the road. But Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday focused more intently on the fresh evidence that demand for workers remains intense despite their efforts, suggesting that they have more work to do before they will be able to feel confident that rapid inflation will fade fully.“The biggest surprise — and the thing to take the most signal from — is the combination of the job gains over the past month and the restatement over the past year,” Thomas Barkin, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in an interview with The New York Times. “We still have more to do. Inflation is the guidepost.”Fed officials have already lifted rates from near zero a year ago to more than 4.5 percent, ushering in a quarter-point move just this week. While they have signaled more to come, investors and economists had been betting that they might stop moving after their next meeting, in March.The strong job numbers upended that expectation. Investors on Friday penciled in another rate move in May, and stocks fell in response to the jobs data as Wall Street braced for a more aggressive central bank. Higher rates weigh on demand by making it more expensive to borrow to buy a house or expand a business.The State of Jobs in the United StatesEconomists have been surprised by recent strength in the labor market, as the Federal Reserve tries to engineer a slowdown and tame inflation.Job Trends: The Labor Department reported that the nation’s demand for labor only got stronger in December, as job openings rose to 11 million.Burrito Season: Chipotle Mexican Grill, the fast-casual food chain, said that it planned to hire 15,000 workers ahead of its busiest time of year, from March to May.Retail Industry: With consumers worried about inflation in the prices of day-to-day necessities like food, retailers are playing defense and reducing their work forces.Tech Layoffs: The industry’s recent job cuts have been an awakening for a generation of workers who have never experienced a cyclical crash.Fed officials themselves underlined that further rate adjustments are coming.“The number today on the jobs report was a ‘wow’ number,” Mary C. Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said on Fox Business. She added that it did not change the economic narrative: It was just additional confirmation that the labor market is strong.She said the Fed’s December forecast — which called for two more quarter-point rate increases, pushing rates just above 5 percent — remained “a good indicator of where policy is at least headed,” adding that she is “prepared to do more than that if more is needed.”Wage growth is slowing along with inflationYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Job Growth Is a Boost for Biden as He Bets on a Lasting Turnaround

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    PHILADELPHIA — President Biden on Friday seized on what he called “strikingly good news” about the economy, hailing the addition of a half-million jobs and capping a week of presidential swagger about the direction of the country.Just days before he delivers his second assessment of the State of the Union in an address before Congress next week, Mr. Biden has all but dropped the “I feel your pain” message he frequently delivered last year as inflation soared.Instead, Mr. Biden traveled around the country this week, pointing to the real-world impact of legislation he championed to spend billions of dollars on the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and unabashedly taking credit for what he is betting will be a lasting turnaround as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes.In Philadelphia, Mr. Biden boasted about the new bridges that will be built and rusty lead pipes that will be replaced because of his efforts. And he praised the country’s businesses for creating 12 million jobs since he took office.“There’s now 12 million more Americans who can look at their kid and say: ‘It’s going to be OK,’” he told a group of workers at a water treatment plant. “And what it’s done mostly is to provide dignity for those families.”But looking on the bright side has its risks, especially since the red-hot job growth in January has the potential to trigger more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to keep a lid on high inflation. Prices have still risen at a rate of 6.5 percent, down from last year but well above the average for the last several decades.And economic uncertainty is far from gone as Republicans threaten not to raise the debt limit later this year, a move that economists say would shatter global financial confidence and plunge the nation into recession.The Biden PresidencyHere’s where the president stands as the third year of his term begins.State of the Union: President Biden will deliver his second State of the Union speech on Feb. 7, at a time when he faces an aggressive House controlled by Republicans and a special counsel investigation into the possible mishandling of classified information.Chief of Staff: Mr. Biden named Jeffrey D. Zients, his former coronavirus response coordinator, as his next chief of staff. Mr. Zients replaces Ron Klain, who has run the White House since the president took office.Economic Aide Steps Down: Brian Deese, who played a pivotal role in negotiating economic legislation Mr. Biden signed in his first two years in office, is leaving his position as the president’s top economic adviser.Eyeing 2024: Mr. Biden has been assailing House Republicans over their tax and spending plans, including potential changes to Social Security and Medicare, as he ramps up for what is likely to be a run for re-election.Previous presidents who have been too rosy about the economy have been punished by voters who see them as out-of-touch with their real-life issues. President George Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992 after seeming to dismiss the impact of an inflation-driven recession on middle-class workers.“This is the hardest thing to do in politics,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist who helped Bill Clinton defeat Mr. Bush that year. “In a recovery, when can you say there’s a recovery and things are good? When people don’t think it’s good and you say it’s good, they get angry with you.”That same dynamic hurt Mr. Clinton politically in 1994, Mr. Carville recalled.“Although the economy was doing better, if we said it, the blowback was: ‘The guy is out of touch,’” he said. “That’s the most difficult and vexing problem that any incumbent has.”The White House has also been anxious over a worker shortage as Mr. Biden focuses on the implementation of his infrastructure, economic and climate legislation this year to galvanize voters. The labor market has remained tight; data released this week showed that the number of posted jobs per available unemployed worker rose again in December.But Mr. Biden and his team appear to have decided that it is not a time to hold back.The United States added 517,000 jobs in January alone, the Labor Department said on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent, the lowest rate of joblessness since before the first moon landing in the summer of 1969.The 12 million jobs added since Mr. Biden took office amount to “the strongest two years of job growth in history — by a long shot,” Mr. Biden crowed in remarks at the White House, adding that the new jobs report proves that a “chorus of critics” were just plain wrong about his approach to the economy..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Those critics often note that the dramatic job growth during Mr. Biden’s term is the result of needed rebuilding after the loss of about 10 million jobs in the country because of pandemic-related shutdowns.Just moments after Friday’s jobs report came out, members of Mr. Biden’s team took to social media. Shalanda Young, the president’s budget director, noted the unemployment rate, saying “@POTUS’s economic plan is delivering.” Ian Sams, the spokesman for the White House Counsel’s Office, criticized Republicans for “political stunt” investigations.“House Rs could instead join @POTUS to focus on issues affecting people’s lives like jobs & work together on this historic progress,” he wrote alongside a chart showing the decline in the unemployment rate since Mr. Biden took office.The president and his team are unlikely to get that kind of cooperation from his adversaries, especially after an announcement on his likely re-election bid, a move expected in the coming weeks or months.Despite his administration’s accomplishments, Mr. Biden remains in a politically perilous situation with voters after two years in office. A recent public opinion survey by NBC News indicated that a plurality of voters do not think he is “honest and trustworthy,” has the “ability to handle a crisis,” is “competent and effective,” or is “uniting the country.”In the survey, 54 percent said Mr. Biden does not have the “necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Only 28 percent said he does.Still, the president’s aides are betting that voters will be more focused on how they experience the economy: Do they have jobs? Can they afford to buy groceries and gas? Do they have the resources to take a vacation or buy a car?A year ago, with gas prices soaring, Mr. Biden went out of his way to make sure Americans knew he felt their financial frustration with the situation, saying “I get it,” and adding: “I know how much it hurts.”On Friday, that sentiment was largely replaced by an unrestrained enthusiasm in the wake of one of the biggest employment increases in months.Mr. Biden has for months pointed to job growth as evidence that his agenda has rebuilt the economy after the coronavirus pandemic shuttered much of the United States. On Friday, he amplified that narrative to draw a contrast between what he says are policies that produced steady growth and the tax and spending plans of some House Republicans.Throughout his time in office, rising consumer prices have been one of the more glaring political vulnerabilities for Mr. Biden. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates for an eighth consecutive time in a year in an effort to cool rapid inflation.Republicans have accused the White House of worsening inflation by injecting too much money into the economy and have called for major spending cuts.Asked after his remarks whether he takes responsibility for inflation that remains high, Mr. Biden said he does not.“Because it was already there,” he said. “When I got here, man. Remember what the economy was like? Jobs were hemorrhaging. Inflation was rising? We weren’t manufacturing a damn thing here. We were in real economic difficulty.”“That’s why I don’t,” he said. More

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    Biden Weighs State of the Union Focus on His Unfinished Agenda

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    As the president prepares for his national address, his aides debate an emphasis on his still-unrealized plans for child care, prekindergarten and more.WASHINGTON — President Biden’s top economic aides have battled for weeks over a key decision for his State of the Union address on Tuesday: how much to talk about child care, prekindergarten, paid leave and other new spending proposals that the president failed to secure in the flurry of economic legislation he signed in his first two years in office.Some advisers have pushed for Mr. Biden to spend relatively little time on those efforts, even though he is set to again propose them in detail in the budget blueprint he will release in March. They want the president to continue championing the spending he did sign into law, like investments in infrastructure like roads and water pipes, and advanced manufacturing industries like semiconductors, while positioning him as a bipartisan bridge-builder on critical issues for the middle class.Other aides want Mr. Biden to spend significant time in the speech on an issue set that could form the core of his likely re-election pitch to key swing voters, particularly women. Polls by liberal groups suggest such a focus, on helping working families afford care for their children and aging parents, could prove a winning campaign message.The debate is one of many taking place inside the administration as Mr. Biden tries to determine which issues to focus on in a speech that carries extra importance this year. It will be Mr. Biden’s first address to the new Republican majority in the House, which has effectively slammed the brakes on his legislative agenda for the next two years. And it could be a preview for the themes Mr. Biden would stress on the 2024 campaign trail should he run for a second term.Administration officials caution that Mr. Biden has not finalized his strategy. A White House official said Friday that the president was preparing to tout his economic record and his full vision for the economy.The Biden PresidencyHere’s where the president stands as the third year of his term begins.State of the Union: President Biden will deliver his second State of the Union speech on Feb. 7, at a time when he faces an aggressive House controlled by Republicans and a special counsel investigation into the possible mishandling of classified information.Chief of Staff: Mr. Biden named Jeffrey D. Zients, his former coronavirus response coordinator, as his next chief of staff. Mr. Zients replaces Ron Klain, who has run the White House since the president took office.Economic Aide Steps Down: Brian Deese, who played a pivotal role in negotiating economic legislation Mr. Biden signed in his first two years in office, is leaving his position as the president’s top economic adviser.Eyeing 2024: Mr. Biden has been assailing House Republicans over their tax and spending plans, including potential changes to Social Security and Medicare, as he ramps up for what is likely to be a run for re-election.Few of Mr. Biden’s advisers expect Congress to act in the next two years on paid leave, an enhanced tax credit for parents, expanded support for caregivers for disabled and older Americans or expanded access to affordable child care. All were centerpieces of the $1.8 trillion American Families Plan Mr. Biden announced in the first months of his administration. Mr. Biden proposes to offset those and other proposals with tax increases on high earners and corporations.Earlier this week, Mr. Biden hinted that he may be preparing to pour more attention on those so-called “care economy” proposals, which he and his economic team say would help alleviate problems that crimp family budgets and block would-be workers from looking for jobs.At a White House event celebrating the 30th anniversary of a law that mandated certain workers be allowed to take unpaid medical leave, Mr. Biden ticked through his administration’s efforts to invest in a variety of care programs in the last two years, while acknowledging failure to pass federally mandated paid leave and other larger programs.Mr. Biden said he remained committed to “passing a national program of paid leave and medical leave.”“And, by the way, American workers deserve paid sick days as well,” he said. “Paid sick days. Look, I’ve called on Congress to act, and I’ll continue fighting.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.For Mr. Biden, continuing to call for new spending initiatives aimed at lower- and middle-income workers would draw a clear contrast with the still-nascent field of Republicans seeking the White House in 2024. It would cheer some outside advocacy groups that have pushed him to renew his focus on programs that would particularly aid women and children.The State of the Union speech “presents the president with a rare opportunity to take a victory lap and, simultaneously, advance his agenda,” the advocacy group First Focus on Children said in a news release this week. “All to the benefit of children.”The efforts could also address what Mr. Biden’s advisers have identified as a lingering source of weakness in the recovery from the pandemic recession: high costs of caregiving, which are blocking Americans from looking for work. The nonprofit group ReadyNation estimates in a new report that child care challenges cost American families $78 billion a year and employers another $23 billion.“Among prime-age people not working in the United States, roughly half of them list care responsibilities as the main reason for not participating in the labor force,” Heather Boushey, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters this week. She noted that the jobs rebound has lagged in care industries like nursing homes and day care centers.“These remain economic challenges and addressing them could go a long ways towards supporting our nation’s labor supply,” she said.But focusing on that unfinished economic work could conflict with Mr. Biden’s repeated efforts this year to portray the economy as strong and position him as a president who reached across the aisle to secure big new investments that are lifting growth and job creation. On Friday, the president celebrated news that the economy created 517,000 jobs in January, in a brief speech that did not mention the challenges facing caregivers.Calling for vast new spending programs also risks further antagonizing House conservatives, who have made government spending their first large fight with the president. Republicans have threatened to allow the United States to fall into an economically catastrophic default on government debt by not raising the federal borrowing limit, unless Mr. Biden agrees to sharp cuts in existing spending.“Revenue into the government has never been higher,” Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, told reporters on Thursday, a day after he met with Mr. Biden at the White House to discuss fiscal issues and the debt limit. “It’s the highest revenue we’ve ever seen in. So it’s not a revenue problem. It’s a spending problem.”Catie Edmondson More

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    U.S. Hiring Surges With January Gain of 517,000 Jobs

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    The report defied expectations and underscored the challenges for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to cool the labor market to fight inflation.Soft landing? The American labor market is still soaring.After months of gentle but steady declines in job growth, employers unleashed an unexpected burst of hiring in January, adding 517,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday.The increase was the largest since July, and it drew exclamations from economists steeped in labor market trends, who had been expecting another month of gradual cooling.“So much for moderation!” said Beth Ann Bovino, the chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings. “We certainly didn’t see it in this report.”Underscoring the labor market’s extraordinary vibrancy was the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.4 percent, the lowest level since 1969.But even as businesses hired with striking zeal in January — or at least laid off fewer seasonal employees than in most years — wage growth continued to moderate. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent from December, and 4.4 percent over the year, an indication that some of the pressure to lure employees with pay raises may be easing.Wage growth is slowing along with inflationYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    U.S. Survey Shows an Uptick in Job Openings, and Not in Layoffs

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    The Labor Department found a rise in the number of posted jobs per worker in December, despite the Fed’s efforts to cool the labor market.The nation’s demand for labor only got stronger in December, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday, as job openings rose to 11 million.That brings the number of posted jobs per available unemployed worker, which had been easing in recent months, back up to 1.9 — not what the Federal Reserve has been hoping for as it seeks to quell inflation.“It does make you question whether we continue to see that slowing in net job creation,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at the financial services company Nationwide. “There’s still a strong demand for workers, and that suggests that the labor market is still running very tight, and too hot.”The 5.5 percent increase in job openings was largely driven by hotels and restaurants, which have been steadily recovering from the pandemic, and jumped sharply to 1.74 million positions posted. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been particularly focused on wage inflation in the services sector, but like wages more broadly, increases in hourly earnings in private services have been decelerating.In another sign of confidence among workers, people voluntarily left their jobs at about the same rate as they did in November. Quits as a share of the overall employment base have fallen slightly from 3 percent at the end of 2021, but plateaued over the past few months. Overall, in 2022, about 50 million Americans quit their jobs.Layoffs were also steady in December, staying at the unusually low level that has prevailed since a spike during the pandemic. While pink slips in the tech industry have mounted swiftly — most recently with 22,000 between Microsoft and Google — the bulk of the separations may have occurred after the labor turnover survey ended.Other indicators that employers are shedding workers, such as initial claims for unemployment insurance, have also remained very low by historical standards. Those leaving tech jobs, especially with software development and engineering skills, may have found new opportunities so quickly that they didn’t file for unemployment benefits. More

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    Judge Finds Amazon Broke Labor Law in Anti-Union Effort

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    The ruling, on charges brought by the National Labor Relations Board, involved actions at two Staten Island warehouses before union votes last year.Amazon violated labor law in advance of unionization elections last year at two warehouses on Staten Island, a federal administrative judge has ruled.The judge, who hears cases for the National Labor Relations Board, ruled on Monday that Amazon supervisors had illegally threatened to withhold wage and benefit increases from employees at the warehouses if they voted to unionize. The judge, Benjamin W. Green, also ruled that Amazon had illegally removed posts on a digital message board from an employee inviting co-workers to sign a petition being circulated by the Amazon Labor Union. The union sought to represent workers at both warehouses.The ruling ordered Amazon to stop the unfair labor practices and to post a notice saying it would not engage in them.In the same ruling, the judge dismissed several accusations brought in a complaint by the labor board’s prosecutors, including charges that Amazon indicated take-home pay would fall if workers unionized; that Amazon promised improvements in a program that subsidizes workers’ educational expenses if they chose not to unionize; and that Amazon indicated that workers would be fired if they unionized and failed to pay union dues.The judge found that these accusations were either overstated or, in the final instance, that the action was not illegal.Amazon can appeal the ruling to the labor board in Washington.“We’re glad that the judge dismissed 19 — nearly all — of the allegations in this case,” Mary Kate Paradis, an Amazon spokeswoman, said in a statement, adding: “The facts continue to show that the teams in our buildings work hard to do the right thing.”The union declined to comment.The violations occurred at a vast Amazon warehouse known as JFK8, where workers voted to unionize in an election whose results were announced in April, and at a smaller, nearby warehouse known as LDJ5, where workers voted down a union the next month.In the weeks before the elections, Amazon summoned employees at the warehouses to dozens of anti-union meetings at which supervisors questioned the credibility of the Amazon Labor Union, emphasized the costliness of union dues and warned that workers could end up worse off under a union.The judge’s ruling set aside a broader question brought by labor board prosecutors: whether employers can force workers to attend such meetings.The meetings are legal under labor board precedent and common among employers facing union campaigns. But the board’s general counsel, Jennifer Abruzzo, has argued that the precedent is in tension with federal labor law and had sought to challenge it.Judge Green concluded that he lacked the authority to overturn the precedent. “I am required to apply current law,” he wrote. Ms. Abruzzo’s office can file an appeal asking the labor board in Washington to overturn the precedent. More

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    Brexit Turns 3. Why Is No One Wearing a Party Hat?

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    The divorce between Britain and the European Union has become the dark thread that, to many, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbors.LONDON — The third anniversary of Britain’s departure from the European Union passed without fanfare on Tuesday, and why not? Brexit has faded from the political forefront, unmentioned by politicians who don’t want to touch it and overlooked by a public that cares more about the country’s economic crisis.The severity of that crisis was underscored by the International Monetary Fund, which forecast this week that Britain will be the world’s only major economy to contract in 2023, performing even worse than heavily blacklisted Russia.The I.M.F. only indirectly attributed some of Britain’s woes to Brexit, noting that it suffered from a very tight labor market, which had constrained output. Brexit has aggravated those shortages by choking off the pipeline of workers from the European Union — whether waiters in London restaurants or fruit and vegetable pickers in fields.The effects of Brexit run through Britain’s last-in-class economy because they also run through its divided, exhausted politics. In a country grappling with the same energy shocks and inflation pressures that afflict the rest of Europe, Brexit is the dark thread that, to some critics, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbors.“One of the reasons for our current economic weakness is Brexit,” said Anand Menon, a professor of West European politics at King’s College London. “It’s not the main reason. But everything has become so politicized that the economic debate is carried out through political shibboleths.”Years of debate over Brexit, he said, had contributed to a kind of policy paralysis. “If you look at it, it is astounding how little actual governing has happened since 2016,” Professor Menon said. “It has been seven years, and virtually nothing has been done on a governmental level to fix the country’s problems.”Inflation, though it has eased slightly, continues to run at a double-digit rate.Neil Hall/EPA, via ShutterstockThose problems continue to proliferate. Inflation, though it has eased slightly, continues to run at a double-digit rate. Britain’s National Health Service is facing the gravest crisis in its history, with overcrowded hospitals and hourslong waits for ambulances. On Wednesday, Britain will face its largest coordinated strikes in a decade, with teachers, railway workers and civil servants walking off the job.Not all these problems are wholly, or even principally, a result of Brexit. But tackling any of them, experts said, will require bolder solutions than the government of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has yet proposed. Owing largely to Brexit, Mr. Sunak’s Conservative Party remains torn by factions that thwart action on issues from urban planning to a new relationship with the European Union.Part of the problem, experts said, is that the neither the government nor the opposition Labour Party is prepared to acknowledge the negative effects Brexit has had on the economy. The government may not ring the bell of Big Ben to celebrate the anniversary, as it did on Brexit day in 2020. But to the extent that Mr. Sunak refers to Brexit, he still portrays it as an undiluted boon to the country.“In the three years since leaving the E.U., we’ve made huge strides in harnessing the freedoms unlocked by Brexit,” Mr. Sunak said in a statement marking the anniversary. “Whether leading Europe’s fastest vaccine rollout, striking trade deals with over 70 countries or taking back control of our borders, we’ve forged a path as an independent nation with confidence.”A protest on Monday against a proposed bill to limit strikes outside Downing Street in London.Andy Rain/EPA, via ShutterstockHis predecessor, Boris Johnson, also cited the early authorization and rapid deployment of a coronavirus vaccine as proof of Brexit’s value — never mind that health experts said Britain would have had the authority to approve a vaccine before its neighbors, even if it had been part of the European Union.“Let’s shrug off all this negativity and gloom-mongering that I hear about Brexit,” Mr. Johnson said in a video posted on Twitter on Tuesday afternoon. “Let’s remember the opportunities that lie ahead, and the vaccine rollout proves it.”There is little evidence that Mr. Sunak and Mr. Johnson are convincing many people. Public opinion has turned sharply against Brexit: Fifty-six percent of those surveyed thought leaving the European Union was a mistake, according to a poll in November by the firm YouGov, while only 32 percent thought it was a good idea.And the sense of disillusion is nationwide. In all but three of Britain’s 632 parliamentary constituencies, more people now agree than disagree with the statement, “Britain was wrong to leave the E.U,” according to a poll released Monday by the news website, UnHerd, and the research firm, Focaldata.The three holdouts are agricultural areas around Boston and Skegness on the country’s eastern coastline, where immigration is still a resonant issue. And even in these places, public opinion about Brexit is finely balanced.At the same time, few people express a desire to open a debate over whether to rejoin the European Union. The prospects of doing that on terms that would be remotely acceptable to either side are, for the moment, far-fetched. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, prefers to frame his party’s message as “Making Brexit Work,” having lost an election to the Tories in 2019, whose slogan was “Get Brexit Done.”The chief executive of the N.H.S., Amanda Pritchard, from left, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain. They were visiting the University Hospital of North Tees in Stockton-on-Tees.Pool photo by Phil NobleBritain’s problems are exacerbated by the fact that the one leader who proposed radical remedies, Liz Truss, triggered such a backlash in the financial markets that she was forced out of office in 45 days. To restore the country’s reputation with investors, Mr. Sunak has scrapped her tax cuts and adopted a fiscally austere program of higher taxes and spending cuts that the I.M.F. says will curb growth.“Although we no longer have lunatics running the asylum, we have essentially a lame-duck government that doesn’t have any semblance of a plan to restore economic growth,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London.The trouble is that the bitter squabbling over Brexit has made obvious responses politically perilous for the prime minister. Even the I.M.F.’s projection for Britain’s growth ignited a storm of commentary on social media about whether it would help the cause of “Remainers” or reopen the Brexit debate.The fund’s assessment was not completely gloomy despite its prediction of contraction in 2023. Britain, it estimated, grew faster than Germany or France last year. After inflation cools and the burden of higher taxes eases, it said, Britain should return to modest growth in 2024.Professor Portes said that there were policies Mr. Sunak could pursue, from liberalizing planning laws to overhauling immigration rules to ease the labor shortage, that would stimulate growth. “If you put all those together,” he said, “there is a reasonable, feasible strategy that could make the next 10 years better than the last.”But he added, “Any coherent strategy involves repairing the economic relationship with Europe, and that will depend on the political dynamic.” More