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    With Surge in July, U.S. Recovers the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic

    U.S. job growth accelerated in July across nearly all industries, restoring nationwide employment to its prepandemic level, despite widespread expectations of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation.Employers added 528,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday, more than doubling what forecasters had projected. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent, equaling the figure in February 2020, which was a 50-year low.The robust job growth is welcome news for the Biden administration in a year when red-hot inflation and fears of recession have been recurring economic themes. “Today’s jobs report shows we are making significant progress for working families,” President Biden declared.The labor market’s continued strength is all the more striking as gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, has declined for two consecutive quarters and as consumer sentiment about the economy has fallen sharply — along with the president’s approval ratings.“I’ve never seen a disjunction between the data and the general vibe quite as large as I saw,” said Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist, noting that employment growth is an economic North Star. “It is worth emphasizing that when you try to take the pulse of the overall economy, these data are much more reliable than G.D.P.”But the report could stiffen the Federal Reserve’s resolve to cool the economy. Wage growth sped up, to 5.2 percent over the past year, indicating that labor costs could add fuel to higher prices.The Fed has raised interest rates four times in its battle to curb the steepest inflation in four decades, and policymakers have signaled that more increases are in store. That strategy is likely to lead to a slowdown in hiring later in the year as companies cut payrolls to match expected lower demand.Already, surveys of restaurateurs, home builders and manufacturers have reflected concern that current spending will not continue. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have been creeping up, and job openings have fallen for three consecutive months.“At this stage, things are OK,” said James Knightley, the chief international economist at the bank ING. “Say, December or the early part of next year, that’s where we could see much softer numbers.”Payrolls have fully recovered the jobs lost in the pandemic.Cumulative change in jobs since before the pandemic More

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    Is Biden Right About a Recession? The July Jobs Report Suggests Yes.

    The strong jobs report was welcome news for President Biden, who has insisted in recent weeks that the United States is not in recession, even though it has suffered two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.But the report also defied even the president’s own optimistic expectations about the state of the labor market — and appeared to contradict the administration’s theory of where the economy is headed.Mr. Biden celebrated the report on Friday morning. “Today, the unemployment rate matches the lowest it’s been in more than 50 years: 3.5 percent,” he said in a statement. “More people are working than at any point in American history.”He added: “There’s more work to do, but today’s jobs report shows we are making significant progress for working families.”The president has said for months that he expects job creation to slow soon, along with wage and price growth, as the economy transitions to a more stable state of slower growth and lower inflation.“If average monthly job creation shifts in the next year from current levels of 500,000 to something closer to 150,000,” Mr. Biden wrote in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal in May, “it will be a sign that we are successfully moving into the next phase of recovery — as this kind of job growth is consistent with a low unemployment rate and a healthy economy.”White House officials prepped reporters this week for the possibility that job growth was cooling, in line with Mr. Biden’s expectations. The expectations-busting job creation number appeared to surprise them, again.But Mr. Biden will almost certainly cite the numbers as evidence that the economy is nowhere near recession. He and his aides have repeatedly said in recent weeks that the current pace of job creation is out of step with the jobs numbers in previous recessions, and proof that a contraction in gross domestic product does not mean the country is mired in a downturn. More

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    U.S. jobs report shows a gain of 528,000 in July.

    U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said on Friday, again outstripping expectations for a labor market that is still rebounding from the pandemic but that has come under increasing pressure from inflation as well as from escalating interest rates meant to rein in prices.The impressive performance — which brings the total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns — indicates that a slowdown in some industries has not been enough to drag down overall hiring. And it provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession.But most forecasters expect that momentum to slow markedly later in the year, as companies cut payrolls to match lower demand.“At this stage, things are OK,” said James Knightley, the chief international economist at the bank ING. “Say, December or the early part of next year, that’s where we could see much softer numbers.”The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent in June, matching its 50-year low on the eve of the pandemic.Last week, the government reported that the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, had contracted for the second consecutive quarter when adjusted for inflation. The data showed a sharp decline in home building, a slackening of business investment and a sluggish rise in consumer spending.Those trends are bound to affect the labor market overall, even if not uniformly or immediately.Amy Glaser, a senior vice president at the global staffing agency Adecco, said her firm was still struggling to fill hourly jobs, especially in retail and logistics. Employers may not have made those positions attractive enough, and, increasingly, may do without them.“I think we do have a gap in the jobs that are available and the desire to do those jobs,” Ms. Glaser said. “We know there are tens of thousands of warehouse jobs out there, but standing on your feet for 10 hours a day isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.” More

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    Gloomy about the economy and inflation, Americans remain upbeat about jobs.

    Americans are worried about inflation, pessimistic about the economy overall and upset about the way their leaders are handling it. But they still feel pretty good about the job market.Fifty-two percent of Americans say it is a good time to find a job right now, compared with just 11 percent who say it is a bad time, according to a survey conducted last month for The New York Times by the online research firm Momentive. (The rest say the situation is “mixed,” or didn’t answer the question.) Fifty-six percent say the job market is more favorable to employees than employers, and a majority think that these conditions will continue for at least six months.Most Americans are not worried, either, that their jobs are in jeopardy. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they were concerned that they or a member of their household would be laid off in the next few months, up only modestly from 37 percent just before the pandemic.“People see the job market as still a little bit of a bright spot,” said Brianna Richardson, a research scientist for Momentive.The rosy outlook on jobs is a striking contrast to Americans’ views of the economy writ large. More than 90 percent of people in the survey said they were concerned about inflation, and a majority said they were worse off financially than a year earlier. Only 17 percent said overall business conditions in the country were somewhat or very good.Ms. Richardson said the results suggested that bad news on inflation was eclipsing good news on jobs in Americans’ perceptions of the economy. That appears to be true for people’s own finances as well: Even though they see it as an employee-friendly job market, most workers say they haven’t gotten raises that keep up with rising prices.Americans take a dim view of the way the White House and the Federal Reserve have handled inflation, although the survey was conducted before Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia signed on to a bill that Democrats say would help reduce inflation. But those polled don’t necessarily think Republicans would do better. Forty-four percent of respondents said they thought Democrats would do a better job with the economy, versus 47 percent who preferred Republicans on the issue. Those numbers were little changed from the last time the question was asked, in May 2019.About the survey: The data in this article came from an online survey of 5,881 adults conducted by the polling firm Momentive from July 18 to July 25. The company selected respondents at random from the more than two million people who take surveys on its platform each day. Responses were weighted to match the demographic profile of the population of the United States. The survey has a modeled error estimate (similar to a margin of error in a standard telephone poll) of plus or minus two percentage points, so differences of less than that amount are statistically insignificant. More

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    Job Openings Fell in June, Suggesting That the Labor Market Is Cooling

    The number of job openings fell for the third consecutive month in June, a sign that the red-hot U.S. labor market may be starting to cool off.Employers posted 10.7 million vacant positions on the last day of June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That is high by historical standards but a sharp drop from the 11.3 million openings in May and the record 11.9 million in March. It was the largest one-month decline in the two decades that the government has kept track of this data, other than the two months at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.Job openings are falling, but remain highMonthly U.S. job openings, seasonally adjusted

    Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesThe drop was concentrated in retail, the latest sign that the sector is struggling as consumers shift their spending from goods back to services as the pandemic ebbs. But job postings have also fallen in leisure and hospitality, the sector that was the most strained by labor shortages last year.The job market remains strong by most measures. There were still nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed workers in June, and employers are raising pay and offering other incentives to attract and retain staff. Layoffs remained near a record low in June, suggesting that employers were reluctant to part with staff they worked so hard to hire. And the number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs remains high, although it has fallen from last year’s peak.The recent decline in openings is likely to be encouraging news for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who have been trying to slow down the economy in an effort to tame inflation. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, and other officials have pointed to the number of vacant jobs as evidence that the labor market is too hot. They are hoping that employers will start posting fewer jobs and hiring fewer workers before they begin laying people off, allowing the job market to cool down without causing a spike in unemployment.Still, any slowdown in the job market will mean that workers have less leverage to demand raises when pay is already failing to keep up with inflation. Slower wage growth, in turn, could lead consumers to spend less, increasing the risk that the United States could slip into a recession.The labor market “is definitely losing momentum, and that’s what is chipping away at people’s ability to spend,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist for Wells Fargo.Economists and policymakers will get a more up-to-date picture of the job market on Friday, when the Labor Department releases data on hiring and unemployment in July. Forecasters surveyed by FactSet expect the report to show that employers added about 250,000 jobs last month, down from 372,000 in June. More

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    Who’s to Blame for a Factory Shutdown: A Company, or California?

    VERNON, Calif. — Teresa Robles begins her shift around dawn most days at a pork processing plant in an industrial corridor four miles south of downtown Los Angeles. She spends eight hours on her feet cutting tripe, a repetitive motion that has given her constant joint pain, but also a $17.85-an-hour income that supports her family.So in early June, when whispers began among the 1,800 workers that the facility would soon shut down, Ms. Robles, 57, hoped they were only rumors.“But it was true,” she said somberly at the end of a recent shift, “and now each day inches a little closer to my last day.”  The 436,000-square-foot factory, with roots dating back nearly a century, is scheduled to close early next year. Its Virginia-based owner, Smithfield Foods, says it will be cheaper to supply the region from factories in the Midwest than to continue operations here.“Unfortunately, the escalating costs of doing business in California required this decision,” said Shane Smith, the chief executive of Smithfield, citing utility rates and a voter-approved law regulating how pigs can be housed.Workers and company officials see a larger economic lesson in the impending shutdown. They just differ on what it is. To Ms. Robles, it is evidence that despite years of often perilous work, “we are just disposable to them.” For the meatpacker, it is a case of politics and regulation trumping commerce.The cost of doing business in California is a longtime point of contention. It was cited last year when Tesla, the electric-vehicle maker that has been a Silicon Valley success story, announced that it was moving its headquarters to Texas. “There’s a limit to how big you can scale in the Bay Area,” said Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, mentioning housing prices and long commutes.As with many economic arguments, this one can take on a partisan hue.Around the time of Tesla’s exit, a report by the conservative-leaning Hoover Institution at Stanford University found that California-based companies were leaving at an accelerating rate. In the first six months of last year, 74 headquarters relocated from California, according to the report. In 2020, the report found, 62 companies were known to have relocated.Dee Dee Myers, a senior adviser to Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, counters by pointing to California’s continued economic growth.“Every time this narrative comes up, it’s consistently disproven by the facts,” said Ms. Myers, director of the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development. The nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 2 percent over a five-year period through 2021, according to Ms. Myers’s office, while California’s grew by 3.7 percent. The state is still the country’s tech capital.Still, manufacturing has declined more rapidly in California than in the nation as a whole. Since 1990, the state has lost a third of its factory jobs — it now has roughly 1.3 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — compared with a 28 percent decline nationwide.The Smithfield plant is an icon of California’s industrial heyday. In 1931, Barney and Francis Clougherty, brothers who grew up in Los Angeles and the sons of Irish immigrants, started a meatpacking business that soon settled in Vernon. Their company, later branded as Farmer John, became a household name in Southern California, recognized for producing the beloved Dodger Dog and al pastor that sizzled at backyard cookouts. During World War II, the company supplied rations to U.S. troops in the Pacific.Leo Velasquez, 62, started working at the plant in 1990. He had hoped to stay there until he was ready to retire.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesAlmost 20 years later, Les Grimes, a Hollywood set painter, was commissioned to create a mural at the plant, transforming a bland industrial structure into a pastoral landscape where young children chased cherubic-looking pigs. It became a sightseeing destination.More recently, it has also been a symbol of the state’s social and political turbulence.In explaining Smithfield’s decision to close the plant, Mr. Smith, the chief executive, and other company officials have pointed to a 2018 statewide ballot measure, Proposition 12, which requires that pork sold in the state come from breeding pigs housed in spaces that allow them to move more freely.The measure is not yet being enforced and faces a challenge before the U.S. Supreme Court this fall. If it is not overturned, the law will apply even to meat packed outside the state — the way Smithfield now plans to supply the local market — but company officials say that in any case, its passage reflects a climate inhospitable to pork production in California.Passions have sometimes run high outside the plant as animal rights activists have condemned the confinement and treatment of the pigs being slaughtered inside. Protesters have serenaded and provided water to pigs whose snouts stuck out of slats in arriving trucks.In addition to its objections to Proposition 12, Smithfield maintains that the cost of utilities is nearly four times as high per head to produce pork in California than at the company’s 45 other plants around the country, though it declined to say how it arrived at that estimate.John Grant, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 770, which represents Ms. Robles and other workers at the plant, said Smithfield announced the closing just as the sides were to begin negotiating a new contract. “They’re kicking us out with no answers,” said Teresa Robles, who has worked at the factory for four years.Mark Abramson for The New York Times“A total gut punch and, frankly, a shock,” said Mr. Grant, who worked at the plant in the 1970s. He said wage increases were a priority for the union going into negotiations. The company has offered a $7,500 bonus to employees who stay through the closing and has raised the hourly wage, previously $19.10 at the top of the scale, to $23.10. (The rate at the company’s unionized Midwest plants is still a bit higher.)But Mr. Grant said the factory shutdown was an affront to his members, who toiled through the pandemic as essential workers. Smithfield was fined nearly $60,000 by California regulators in 2020 for failing to take adequate measures to protect workers from contracting coronavirus.“After all that the employees have done throughout the pandemic, they’re now all of a sudden going to flee? They’re destroying lives,” said Mr. Grant, adding that the union is working to find new jobs for workers and hopes to help find a buyer for the plant.Karen Chapple, a professor of city and regional planning at the University of California, Berkeley, said the closing was an example of “the larger trend of deindustrialization” in areas like Los Angeles. “It probably doesn’t make sense to be here from an efficiency perspective,” she said. “It’s the tail end of a long exodus.”Indeed, the number of food manufacturing jobs in Los Angeles County has declined 6 percent since 2017, according to state data.  And as those jobs are shed, workers like Ms. Robles wonder what will come next.More than 80 percent of the employees at the Smithfield plant are Latino — a mix of immigrants and first-generation native-born. Most are older than 50. The security and benefits have kept people in their jobs, union leaders say, but the nature of the labor has made it hard to recruit younger workers who have better alternatives.On a recent overcast morning, the air in Vernon was thick with the smell of ammonia. Workers wearing surgical masks and carrying goggles and helmets walked into the plant. The sound of forklifts hummed beyond a high fence.Massive warehouses line the streets in the area. Some sit vacant; others produce wholesale local baked goods and candies. Mario Melendez, who has worked at the plant for a decade, says he feels betrayed by the company.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesMs. Robles started at the Smithfield plant four years ago. For more than two decades she owned a small business selling produce in downtown Los Angeles. She loved her work, but when her brother died in 2018, she needed money to honor his wish to have his body sent from Southern California to Colima, Mexico, their hometown. She sold the business for a couple of thousand dollars, then started at the factory, making $14 an hour.“I was proud,” she said, recalling the early months at her new job.Ms. Robles is the sole provider for her family. Her husband has several health complications, including surviving a heart attack in recent months, so she now shoulders the $2,000 mortgage payment for their home in the Watts neighborhood of Los Angeles. Sometimes her 20-year-old son, who recently started working at the plant, helps with expenses.“But this is my responsibility — it is on me to provide,” she said.Ms. Robles has long recited the Lord’s Prayer every night before bed, and now she often finds herself repeating it throughout the day for strength.“They’re kicking us out with no answers,” she said.Other workers, like Mario Melendez, 67, who has worked at the plant for a decade, shares that unmoored feeling.It’s an honor to know his labor helps feed people across Southern California, he said — especially around the holidays, when the factory’s ribs, ham and hot dogs will be part of people’s celebrations.But the factory is also a place where he contracted coronavirus, which he passed along to his brother, who died of the virus, as did his mother. He was devastated.A truck carrying pigs entering the plant. Animal rights activists have sometimes protested outside.Mark Abramson for The New York Times“A terrible shock,” said Mr. Melendez, who says he feels betrayed by the company.So does Leo Velasquez.He started on the night shift in 1990, making $7 an hour to package and seal bacon. A few years later, he moved to days, working 10-hour shifts.“I’ve given my life to this place,” said Mr. Velasquez, 62.Over the years, his body began to wear down. In 2014, he had shoulder replacement surgery. Still, he had hoped to continue at the factory until he was ready to retire.“That’s not going to happen,” he said. “Where I go from here, I do not know.” More

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    Pay growth and prices picked up, keeping the Fed on track for rate increases.

    Wages, prices and consumer spending all continued to climb, the latest government data showed Friday — fresh evidence that the economy remains resilient amid fear of a recession, but also that inflation is likely to remain a vexing problem for the Federal Reserve.Consumer prices climbed 6.8 percent over the year through June, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures measure. That was the fastest pace since 1982. Consumer spending rose even faster than prices, though, as Americans shelled out money for cars, vacations and restaurant meals even as higher gas and grocery bills strained household budgets.Meanwhile, paychecks grew briskly, albeit not enough to keep up with inflation. The Employment Cost Index for the second quarter rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier.Taken together, the data released Friday indicated that the consumer economy has retained momentum in the face of the highest inflation in decades. That should ease concerns that an economic downturn has already begun but, paradoxically, could also make future economic pain more likely: Strong demand will put continued upward pressure on prices, potentially forcing the Fed to react more aggressively to cool demand and bring inflation under control.Central bank officials on Wednesday made their second supersize rate increase in a row — three-quarters of a percentage point — as they try to slow down the economy by making money more expensive to borrow. They have signaled that they will closely watch incoming economic readings as they consider whether to make another giant move at their next meeting in September, and a number of economists said Friday’s data were likely to prod the officials toward continued decisive action.“This is a print that’s going to keep Fed officials up at night,” Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, wrote in reaction to the fresh wage data. “The monthly inflation and activity data are going to have to cooperate in a very big way for the Fed to step down.”Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during his news conference this week that officials could raise interest rates three-quarters of a point again, though he did not commit to such a move. The Fed has nearly two months, and a lot of economic data to parse, between now and its next rate decision.Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview on Friday that raising rates half a point at upcoming meetings “seems reasonable” to him. But he noted that inflation data had been surprising “in a bad way” and said that if core inflation remained high, it could push him to think a three-quarter point move was needed.“It continues to be concerning,” Mr. Kashkari said of the data released Friday. “I’m waiting for some good news to come: Some surprises that, oh, inflation was lower than we were expecting.”As rapid price increases challenge the Fed, they are also dogging the White House, which called Friday’s inflation numbers “too high.”What the Fed’s Rate Increases Mean for YouCard 1 of 4A toll on borrowers. More

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    Prices surged in June and pay growth, while brisk, is struggling to keep up.

    Prices climbed by 6.8 percent in the year through June, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed, and even a measure that strips out food and fuel picked up notably on a monthly basis.Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index jumped by 4.8 percent over the past year after stripping out food and fuel, which economists do to get a sense of underlying trends, a slightly larger increase than the 4.7 percent increase economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected.Those data are likely to keep the central bank on track to raise rates more as it tries to cool down the fastest inflation in decades. Fed officials made their second supersized rate increase in a row — three-quarters of a percentage point — this week as they try to slow down the economy by making money more expensive to borrow.A separate report showed that wages climbed briskly. The Employment Cost Index climbed by 5.1 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, and the index’s measure of wages and salaries also picked up.While most people are not seeing their pay climb quickly enough to keep pace with rapidly rising prices, wage growth is proceeding rapidly enough that they might make it difficult for price increases to moderate back toward the Fed’s 2 percent annual target. Companies are unlikely to stop raising prices when their labor bills are increasing rapidly, because doing so would eat into and possibly wipe out their profits.The combination of very quick price increases and brisk pay growth is likely to keep the Fed in inflation-fighting mode. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during his news conference this week that officials could raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point again at their next meeting in September, though he did not commit firmly to such a move, given that the Fed has nearly two months between now and their next rate decision.Headline inflation probably cooled in July, because gas prices have dropped sharply this month. It is not yet clear how durable the change will prove, though, and central bankers and consumers have been watching prices increase across a broad array of goods and services beyond just fuel.Inflation has been high for more than a year, and central bankers are focused on trying to restrain demand and drive it lower before it becomes ingrained in the American economy. Once consumers and businesses have learned to expect and accept rapid price increases, it may be harder to quash them.“I really do think that it’s important that we address this now and get it done,” Mr. Powell said at his news conference this week, later adding that “we are assigned uniquely and unconditionally the obligation of providing price stability to the American people. And we’re going to use our tools to do that.” More