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    U.S. Employers Added 253,000 Jobs Despite Economic Worries

    Employers added 253,000 jobs in April and unemployment fell to 3.4 percent, but the labor market’s strength complicates the Fed’s inflation fight.The labor market is still defying gravity — for now.Employers added 253,000 jobs in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported Friday, in a departure from the cooling trend that had marked the first quarter and was expected to continue.The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in March, and matched the level in January, which was the lowest since 1969. Wages also popped slightly, growing 4.4 percent over the past year.The higher-than-forecast job gain complicates the Federal Reserve’s potential shift toward a pause in interest rate increases. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said on Wednesday that the central bank might continue to raise rates if new data showed the economy wasn’t slowing enough to keep prices down.It’s also an indication that the failure of three banks and the resulting pullback on lending, which is expected to hit smaller businesses particularly hard, hasn’t yet hamstrung job creation.“All these things are telling us it’s not a hard stop; it’s creating a headwind, but not a debilitating headwind,” said Carl Riccadonna, the chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “A gradual downturn is happening, but it sure is stubborn and persistent in the trend.” Despite the strong showing in April, the labor market continues to gently descend from blistering highs.Downward revisions to the previous two months’ data meaningfully altered the spring employment picture, subtracting a total of 149,000 jobs. That brings the three-month average to 222,000 jobs, a clear slowdown from the 400,000 added on average in 2022. Most economists expect a more marked downshift later in the year.Jobs increased across industriesChange in jobs in April 2023, by sector More

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    Job Openings Slipped in March as Labor Market Continued Cooling

    The NewsJob openings in March fell to 9.6 million, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday, the lowest level in two years and a further indication that the slowdown in the labor market is becoming more entrenched. It was the third straight month that job openings have declined, a notable development after last year, when job openings bounced around month to month.“The labor market has been, through Q1, a resilient anchor for the economy,” said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at the career site Glassdoor. “But we’re getting more and more signals that those foundations are really starting to tremble.”Transportation, warehousing and utilities, professional and businesses services and construction were among the sectors that posted large drops in open positions, as higher interest rates and fears of a pullback in consumer spending continued to discourage employers from hiring.Other readings in Tuesday’s report underscored the labor market’s restraint. The total number of open jobs per available unemployed worker, a ratio that the Federal Reserve has been watching as it tries to tame rapid inflation, decreased slightly to 1.6, the lowest level since October 2021. Layoffs, which have remained historically low outside of some big-name companies in the tech sector, rose to 1.8 million in March. The number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs — a sign that workers are finding opportunities to switch to better-paid positions, or are confident they can do so — was relatively unchanged but has been inching down.Policymakers are interested in the number of open jobs per available unemployed worker, which has remained stubbornly high for months.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesWhy It Matters: The last major data release before the Fed’s rate decision.The report released on Tuesday, called the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, is one of many that the Federal Reserve watches closely each month to gauge its efforts to slow the economy and ease inflation without spurring widespread layoffs.The Fed has been raising interest rates for more than a year as it tries to bring down rapid inflation to its target of 2 percent. It will announce its next decision on Wednesday; officials are widely expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point, to just above 5 percent. The JOLTS report is the last major piece of data that Fed policymakers will see before their decision.In particular, they are interested in the number of open jobs per available unemployed worker, which has remained stubbornly high for months. That mismatch has helped to drive up pay and contributed to inflation. More recently, however, the ratio has been declining, a welcome sign for the Fed that underscores the labor market’s gradual slowdown.Officials also track other details in the report, including the number of layoffs and workers who quit their jobs. The Background: Labor market resilience complicates the Fed’s plan.Month after month, the labor market has remained robust, defying expectations and complicating the Fed’s efforts to cool the economy. The latest evidence came on Friday, when government data showed that wages and salaries for private-sector workers were up 5.1 percent in March from a year earlier, the same growth rate as in December.Still, higher interest rates are taking a toll on the job market, albeit gradually. Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, a healthy number but down from an average of 334,000 jobs added over the prior six months. The year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings also fell to its slowest pace since July 2021.What’s Next: A big week for economic news.The report on Tuesday kicked off a big few days for economic news.In addition to the Fed decision on Wednesday, there will be the Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of the employment situation on Friday. The report, based on April data, will provide a clearer and more up-to-date picture of the labor market, including the change in the number of jobs — a figure that has been positive for 27 straight months — and the unemployment rate. More

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    A ‘Rocky and Bumpy’ Economy Where Wages Are Up and Inflation Persists

    Key pay and inflation gauges have stayed stubbornly high as Federal Reserve officials consider when to stop raising interest rates.Inflation isn’t as high as it was last year. The job market isn’t as hot. The economy is slowing down. But none of this is happening as quickly or as smoothly as Federal Reserve officials would like.The latest evidence came on Friday, when a set of government reports painted a picture of an economy that is generally headed in the direction that policymakers want, but is taking its time to get there.“We knew that inflation was going to be rocky and bumpy,” said Megan Greene, chief economist for the Kroll Institute. “We found peak inflation, but it’s not going to be a smooth path down.”Consumer prices were up 4.2 percent in March from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was the slowest pace of inflation in nearly two years, down from a peak of 7 percent last summer.But after stripping out food and fuel prices, a closely watched “core” index held nearly steady last month. That measure rose by 4.6 percent over the year, compared with 4.7 percent in the previous reading — a figure that was revised up slightly.Wages, meanwhile, continue to rise rapidly — good news for workers trying to keep up with the rising cost of living, but a likely source of concern for the Fed.Data from the Labor Department on Friday showed that wages and salaries for private-sector workers were up 5.1 percent in March from a year earlier. That was the same growth rate as in December, and defied forecasters’ expectations of a modest slowdown. A broader measure of compensation growth, which includes the value of benefits as well as pay, actually accelerated slightly in the first quarter.Labor Department on Friday showed that wages and salaries for private-sector workers were up 5.1 percent in March from a year earlier.Hailey Sadler for The New York TimesThe Fed has been raising interest rates for more than a year in an effort to cool off the economy and bring inflation down to the central bank’s target of 2 percent per year. The data on Friday is likely to add to policymakers’ conviction that their work is not done — officials are widely expected to raise rates a quarter percentage point, to just above 5 percent, when they meet next week. That would be the central bank’s 10th consecutive rate increase.Wage data is a particular focus for Fed officials, who believe that the labor market, in which there are far more available jobs than workers to fill them, is pushing up pay at an unsustainable rate, contributing to inflation. Other measures had suggested a more significant slowdown in wage growth than showed up in the data on Friday, which is less timely but generally considered more reliable“If any Fed officials were wavering on a May rate hike,” Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, wrote in a note to clients on Friday, the wage data “will likely push them to support at least one more hike.”But a crucial question is what comes after that. Central bankers forecast in March that they might stop raising interest rates after their next move. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, could explain after the central bank’s rate announcement next week if that is still the case. The decision will hinge on incoming economic and financial data.Investors largely shrugged off the data on Friday morning, focusing instead on a week of robust profit reports that suggest corporate America has yet to fully feel the pinch of higher interest rates. The S&P 500 index rose 0.5 percent in midday trading. The yields on Treasury bonds, which track the government’s cost to borrow more money and are sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations, fell slightly.The Fed faces a delicate task as it seeks to raise borrowing costs just enough to discourage hiring and ease pressure on pay, but not so much that companies begin laying off workers en masse.Higher interest rates have already taken a toll on housing, manufacturing and business investment. And data from the Commerce Department on Friday suggested that consumers — the engine of the economic recovery to date — are beginning to buckle. After rising strongly in January, consumer spending barely grew in February and was flat in March. Americans saved their income in March at the highest rate since December 2021, a sign that consumers may be becoming more cautious.“You’re seeing some of that robustness to start the year really start to reverse a little bit,” said Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America.Many forecasters believe the recovery will continue to slow in the months ahead — or may already have done so. The data from March does not capture the full impact of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the financial turmoil that followed.“If you take a picture of the data as it was in the first quarter, you’re left with this impression of still robust economic activity and inflation that’s still too high and too persistent,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, the consulting firm previously known as Ernst & Young. If there was real-time data on spending, credit standards and business investment, he said, “that would tell a very different picture from what the first-quarter data would indicate.”The challenge or Fed officials is that they cannot wait for more complete data to make their decisions. Some evidence points to a more substantial slowdown, but other signs suggest that consumers continue to spend, and companies continue to raise prices.“If we see inflation that warrants us needing to take additional pricing, we’ll take it,” Brian Niccol, chief executive at the burrito chain Chipotle, said during an earnings call this week. “I think we’ve now demonstrated we do have pricing power.” The company raised its menu prices by 10 percent in the first quarter versus the same period last year.Wage growth is a particularly thorny issue for the Fed. Faster pay gains have helped workers, particularly those at the bottom of the earnings ladder, keep up with rapidly rising prices. And most economists, inside and outside the Fed, say wage growth has not been a dominant cause of the recent bout of high inflation.But Fed officials worry that if companies need to keep raising pay, they will also need to keep raising prices. That could make it hard to rein in inflation, even as the pandemic-era disruptions that caused the initial pop in prices recede.“It always feels good as a worker to see more money in your paycheck,” said Cory Stahle, an economist for the employment site Indeed. “But it also feels bad to walk into the store and pay $5 for a dozen eggs.”Joe Rennison More

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    Julie Su Faces Senate Fight as Labor Dept. Nominee

    Business groups are critical of the candidate, Julie Su, and key senators are wavering. The administration’s labor policies are central to the clash.Just over a year ago, the White House suffered an embarrassing defeat when three Democratic senators voted against advancing President Biden’s pick to run a key labor agency, dealing a blow to the administration’s pro-labor agenda.On Thursday, the administration and Senate Democrats tried to ensure that history wouldn’t repeat itself, only this time the stakes were even higher.The occasion was the Senate confirmation hearing of Julie Su, who has served as acting labor secretary since March 11 and is Mr. Biden’s choice to fill the job permanently.As with last year’s confirmation battle, over the government’s top enforcer of minimum wage and overtime laws, Ms. Su’s nomination represents a broader fight over workplace regulation, with business groups chafing against Mr. Biden’s push to strengthen unions and increase workers’ rights and benefits.And once again, there are signs that the administration may fall short, with at least two Democrats and an independent wavering over whether to support Ms. Su. A vote of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions is scheduled for next week.In her testimony before the committee on Thursday, Ms. Su largely associated herself with the record of her predecessor, Martin J. Walsh — whom some Republicans and business groups have held up as pragmatic, and whom Ms. Su served as deputy.She said she would seek employers’ advice on improving worker safety, and described the reverence she gained for small business owners after watching her immigrant parents operate a dry cleaner and a pizza franchise.Democrats argue that Ms. Su, who has strong backing from labor unions, would be a strong worker advocate and enforcer of provisions like the minimum wage, safety regulations and restrictions on child labor, as well as the right to join unions.“You need in terms of a bully pulpit a secretary of labor who makes clear that she is going to stand with working families, and she is prepared to use the powers of the office to take on corporate interests,” Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who heads the labor committee, said in an interview on Wednesday.If confirmed, Ms. Su is also likely to lead the Biden administration’s effort to expand overtime pay for salaried workers. The administration is expected to propose a rule substantially raising the salary threshold — currently about $35,500 — below which most workers automatically qualify for overtime.Those questioning the merits of Ms. Su’s nomination have cited her record as California labor secretary and her support for the state’s labor regulations to suggest that she is a threat to certain industries.When Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, the committee’s ranking Republican, pressed at the hearing for assurances that she wouldn’t pursue regulations that could harm the franchise business model, Ms. Su reminded him that her parents had been franchise owners and suggested that their businesses “were the reason my sister and I were able to go to college.”President Biden with Ms. Su and her daughters at the White House in March.Yuri Gripas for The New York TimesThe Flex Association, a trade group representing several prominent gig economy companies, has called attention to her support for a California measure that would have effectively classified gig workers as employees, requiring companies like Uber and DoorDash to pay them a minimum wage and overtime and to contribute to unemployment insurance. (The law was later scaled back through a ballot measure.)The group circulated an email on Wednesday expressing concern that Ms. Su “does not appreciate” that classifying gig workers as employees could cause many to lose access to such work.Some labor experts have disputed this claim, and a rule being finalized by the Labor Department on how to classify workers takes a different approach from the California measure. But Kristin Sharp, the Flex Association’s chief executive, said that the labor secretary would have discretion over how to carry out the new rule and that “we want to make sure that person is objective in his or her views of nontraditional work.” The group has not taken an official stand on Ms. Su’s nomination.Other business groups have cited what they say is Ms. Su’s support for a California law setting up a council to issue health and safety regulations for fast-food restaurants and create an industry-specific minimum wage.“She has supported policies that directly attack our model,” said Matthew Haller, president of the International Franchise Association, alluding to the fast-food measure. A ballot measure next year will allow voters to decide whether to nullify the law. It is unclear from a video the groups point to that she has specifically supported the law.And Republicans and a variety of business groups have highlighted accusations that California issued billions in fraudulent unemployment insurance claims while she was the state’s labor secretary in 2020. At the hearing, Mr. Cassidy recounted a report of a rapper securing hundreds of thousands of dollars in fraudulent funds in California and boasting about it on a video.Ms. Su has conceded that a large number of claims were improper. Mr. Sanders pointed out that the overpayments reflected features of a federal program that the state merely administered, and that other states paid out a far higher percentage of fraudulent claims.In recent weeks, a coalition of business groups has erected billboards and run ads critical of Ms. Su in the home states of potentially decisive senators, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Jon Tester of Montana, all of whom have so far refrained from backing her nomination.The effort is reminiscent of a business-backed campaign against David Weil, whom Mr. Biden tapped to head the Labor Department’s Wage and Hour Division in 2021, and who had led the agency during the Obama administration. That nomination died on the Senate floor last year after Mr. Manchin, Ms. Sinema and a third Democratic senator, Mark Kelly of Arizona, declined to support him. (Ms. Sinema has since become an independent.)Mr. Weil and his backers lamented the muted response from progressive groups on his behalf. This time, labor unions and other supporters are making a more determined push. The A.F.L.-C.I.O. president, Liz Shuler, announced on Wednesday that a coalition of unions would make a “six-figure buy” of ads backing Ms. Su in states like Arizona and West Virginia and would urge local union members to contact their senators.The United Mine Workers of America, which is influential in Mr. Manchin’s home state and sat out the fight over Mr. Weil, endorsed Ms. Su last week.Emilie Simons, a spokeswoman for the president, said that the White House felt confident about Ms. Su’s confirmation and that it was working hard for every vote. She said that Ms. Su had offered to meet with every senator on the labor committee and that she had met with senators from both parties.At a Senate Democratic lunch on Tuesday, Senator John Hickenlooper of Colorado, regarded as one of the more moderate Democrats on the labor committee, spoke up on Ms. Su’s behalf, noting her work on expanding apprenticeships as deputy secretary.Mr. Hickenlooper said in an interview that he had watched Mr. Tester, his undecided colleague from Montana, as he delivered his remarks and that he was “hopeful that we’ll get him.”But Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema may be harder to wrangle, according to veterans of such nomination fights. Mr. Manchin, who is up for re-election next year in a Republican-leaning state, has yet to meet with Ms. Su. Ms. Sinema is likely to face a challenge from a labor-backed candidate in her re-election bid, giving her little incentive to accommodate unions.Larry Cohen, a former president of the Communications Workers of America who advises multiple unions and has helped secure the nomination of many pro-labor officials over the years, said that generating popular support for Ms. Su in Arizona and West Virginia might help her cause with Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema.But, he added, “I think there is good reason to be worried about both of them.”Jonathan Weisman More

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    Job Openings Fell in February, JOLTS Report Shows

    The U.S. job market continues to ease off its red-hot pace, a government report shows, but there are still more openings than unemployed workers.Demand for workers in the United States eased in February, a sign that the red-hot labor market continues to cool off somewhat.There were 9.9 million job openings in February, down from 10.6 million on the last day of January, the Labor Department reported Tuesday in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS.The drop in open positions is a signal that the labor market is slowing, but the report included data that points to a still-healthy environment for workers: Four million workers quit their jobs during the month, a slight increase from January, and the number of layoffs decreased slightly to 1.5 million.There were 1.7 jobs open for every unemployed worker in February, a decline from 1.9 in January. The Federal Reserve has been paying close attention to that ratio as it looks to slow hiring, part of its effort to contain inflation.Until recent months, the number of available jobs had risen substantially as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession, with companies rushing to hire workers after public health restrictions were rolled back.“The general trend in JOLTS in recent months has been a gradual movement back toward more normal labor market dynamics,” said Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “This looks more like a rebalancing. Job openings were way up in the stratosphere.”The gradual slowing may be encouraging for policymakers. Fed officials worry that a tight job market is contributing to inflation, as employers may feel pressure to raise wages to compete for workers and then pass along price increases to consumers. The number of available openings has remained high in spite of climbing borrowing costs.The central bank has raised interest rates to about 5 percent, from near zero, over the past year, aiming to make it costlier for companies to expand and consumers to spend. But it also wants to avoid setting off widespread layoffs or causing lasting damage to the labor market.“We’re still in a market that is quite strong,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. But, he added, “the cool-off is more apparent now.”One measure of inflation that the Fed watches closely — the Personal Consumption Expenditures index — showed that price gains slowed substantially in February, to 5 percent on an annual basis, down from 5.3 percent in January.Despite high-profile job cuts in the tech sector, layoffs overall have been historically low, a sign that employers may be reluctant to part with workers hired during pandemic-era spikes. The number of workers quitting their jobs voluntarily — a sign that they are confident they can find work elsewhere — rose slightly in February, to four million.“The layoffs we’re seeing all over the media in tech and finance are being more than offset by an absence of layoffs and discharges in the Main Street economy,” Ms. Pollak said. “Labor-market dynamics look pretty favorable to workers still,” she added.JOLTS is considered a lagging indicator, telling more about conditions in the recent past than offering information about what may come. On Friday, the Labor Department will release employment data for March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the report to show that employers added about 240,000 jobs, a slight slowdown from February but still a pace of hiring that reflects a robust labor market. More

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    Jobs Report to Offer Fresh Reading on Labor Market’s Tenacity

    After a blockbuster opening to the year, economists expect the February data to show the return of a gradual slowdown in hiring.After an explosion in job growth at the start of the year, new data on Friday will show whether employers moderated their hiring in February — and whether any slowdown was enough to fundamentally upend the labor market’s momentum.Forecasters estimate that the economy added 225,000 positions last month, which would constitute a return to a gentle downward trend that January interrupted with an unexpected jump of 517,000 jobs. Labor Department surveyors have struggled to account for wildly varying seasonal factors, as well as whiplash from the pandemic, which is why revisions of data for December and January will be closely watched.On the surface, employment growth has reflected scant impact from a series of interest rate increases as the Federal Reserve works to contain inflation. Although goods-related industries have faded as consumers shift their spending back to traveling and dining out, backed-up demand and a reluctance to let go of scarce workers have prevented mass layoffs.And so far, the sharp cuts that have been announced in the technology industry haven’t spread widely.“There are sectors of the economy that have not recovered to prepandemic levels — especially leisure and hospitality — and they don’t care about higher interest rates,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at the financial services firm Raymond James. “We have a scenario where the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors have already contracted, mainly housing, and those sectors have not been able to bring down the rest of the economy.”Analysts broadly expect the data to show little if any change in the nation’s unemployment rate, which last month reached a half-century low of 3.4 percent. Americans left the work force in droves at the outset of the pandemic and have been slow to return, helping to keep the job market exceptionally tight — there were still nearly two jobs for every unemployed person in January, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.Wage growth, which has been the Federal Reserve’s primary concern, is forecast to have sped up on a year-over-year basis, while remaining below last year’s blistering high.Since January, the persistent strength of the labor market appears to have fueled a renewed acceleration of economic indicators such as retail sales, as consumers continue to spend down piles of cash that accumulated during the pandemic. Even the housing market has recently shown signs of unfreezing, with new-home sales picking up as mortgage rates sank slightly (though they bounced back up in February).The brighter tenor of the data flow has prompted Fed officials — including Jerome H. Powell, the chair, during two days of testimony this week on Capitol Hill — to warn they may have to push interest rates higher than anticipated to suppress prices. More

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    Job Openings Fell Slightly in January; Layoffs Rose

    The monthly data points to a cooling in the frenetic pace of hiring even as the labor market remains strong.Demand for workers let up slightly in January, a possible sign that employers are gradually easing off their frenetic pace of hiring even as the job market remains strong.There were 10.8 million job openings, a moderate decrease from 11.2 million on the last day of December, the Labor Department reported Wednesday in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS.The total number of open jobs per available unemployed worker — a figure that the Federal Reserve has been watching closely as it tries to cool the job market and ease inflation — was relatively unchanged at 1.9.Still, although employers have proved remarkably resilient in the face of the Fed’s interest rate increases, the drop in open positions is the latest indication that the once red-hot labor market is slowly cooling. Some industries that had shown unexpected strength recorded notable declines in open positions, including construction, where job openings fell by 240,000. Even leisure and hospitality businesses, like restaurants and bars, which have been trying to adjust to unrelenting demand, had slightly fewer open positions.“Job openings remain pretty sky high in January,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at the employment site ZipRecruiter. “But this report finally points to the slowdown in the labor market that many of us on the front line of the labor market have been observing.”An open question is whether the slowdown in the job market is sufficient for policymakers. Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, made clear on Tuesday that recent reports showing the persistent strength of the labor market could require a more robust response from central bankers.Matthew Martin, an economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note on Wednesday: “While the January JOLTS report shows job openings are heading in the right direction for the Fed, the decline is far too modest to convince that labor market conditions are cooling enough to bring down inflation.”A clearer picture of the job market will come on Friday, when the Labor Department releases employment data for February.Other measures in the report on Wednesday also suggested that the labor market was gently settling into a more normal state. Layoffs, which have been extraordinarily low outside of some high-profile companies mostly in the tech sector, rose by 241,000, to 1.7 million. That is the highest number since December 2020, when a winter wave of Covid-19 cases swept across the country and jolted the economy anew.The increase was driven by a surge of layoffs in the professional and business services sector, which includes advertising, accounting and architectural businesses. The rise in layoffs overall was heavily concentrated in the South.The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs, which has been elevated as workers continue seek — and find — higher-paying jobs, fell in January by 207,000, to 3.9 million. The one-month drop was the largest since May, adding to the sense that employees are losing some of their power and job security that had characterized the pandemic era.Ben Casselman More

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    You’re Now a ‘Manager.’ Forget About Overtime Pay.

    New evidence shows that many employers are mislabeling rank-and-file workers as managers to avoid paying them overtime.For four years beginning in 2014, Tiffany Palliser worked at Panera Bread in South Florida, making salads and operating the register for shifts that began at 5 a.m. and often ran late into the afternoon.Ms. Palliser estimates that she worked at least 50 hours a week on average. But she says she did not receive overtime pay.The reason? Panera officially considered her a manager and paid her an annual salary rather than on an hourly basis. Ms. Palliser said she was often told that “this is what you signed up for” by becoming an assistant manager.Federal law requires employers to pay time-and-a-half overtime to hourly workers after 40 hours, and to most salaried workers whose salary is below a certain amount, currently about $35,500 a year. Companies need not pay overtime to salaried employees who make above that amount if they are bona fide managers.Many employers say managers who earn relatively modest salaries have genuine responsibility and opportunities to advance. The National Retail Federation, a trade group, has written that such management positions are “key steps on the ladder of professional success, especially for many individuals who do not have college degrees.”But according to a recent paper by three academics, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and N. Bugra Ozel, many companies provide salaries just above the federal cutoff to frontline workers and mislabel them as managers to deny them overtime.Because the legal definition of a manager is vague and little known — the employee’s “primary” job must be management, and the employee must have real authority — the mislabeled managers find it hard to push back, even if they mostly do grunt work.The paper found that from 2010 to 2018, manager titles in a large database of job postings were nearly five times as common among workers who were at the federal salary cutoff for mandatory overtime or just above it as they were among workers just below the cutoff.“To believe this would happen without this kind of gaming going on is ridiculous,” Dr. Cohen, a Harvard Business School professor, said in an interview.Under federal law, employers are required to pay time-and-a-half overtime to salaried workers after 40 hours if they make about $35,500 or less.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesDr. Cohen and his co-authors estimate that the practice of mislabeling workers as managers to deny them overtime, which often relies on dubious-sounding titles like “lead reservationist” and “food cart manager,” cost the workers about $4 billion per year, or more than $3,000 per mislabeled employee.And the practice appears to be on the rise: Dr. Cohen said the number of jobs with dubious-sounding managerial titles grew over the period he and his co-authors studied.Federal data appear to underscore the trend, showing that the number of managers in the labor force increased more than 25 percent from 2010 to 2019, while the overall number of workers grew roughly half that percentage.From 2019 to 2021, the work force shrank by millions while the number of managers did not budge. Lawyers representing workers said they suspected that businesses mislabeled employees as managers even more often during the pandemic to save on overtime while they were short-handed.“There were shortages of people who had kids at home,” said Catherine Ruckelshaus, the general counsel of the National Employment Law Project, a worker advocacy group. “I’m sure that elevated the stakes.”But Ed Egee, a vice president at the National Retail Federation, argued that labor shortages most likely cut the other way, giving low-level managers the leverage to negotiate more favorable pay, benefits and schedules. “I would almost say there’s never been a time when those workers are more empowered,” he said. (Pay for all workers grew much faster than pay for managers from 2019 to 2021, though pay for managers grew slightly faster last year.)Experts say the denial of overtime pay is part of a broader strategy to drive down labor costs in recent decades by staffing stores with as few workers as possible. If a worker calls in sick, or more customers turn up than expected, the misclassified manager is often asked to perform the duties of a rank-and-file worker without additional cost to the employer.“This allows them to make sure they’re not staffing any more than they need to,” said Deirdre Aaron, a former Labor Department lawyer who has litigated numerous overtime cases in private practice. “They have assistant managers there who can pick up the slack.”Ms. Palliser said that her normal shift at Panera ran from 5 a.m. to 2 p.m., but that she was often called in to help close the store when it was short-staffed. If an employee did not show up for an afternoon shift, she typically had to stay late to cover.Gonzalo Espinosa said that he had often worked 80 hours a week as the manager of a Jack in the Box but that he had not received overtime pay.Max Whittaker for The New York Times“I would say, ‘My kids get out of school at 2. I have to go pick them up, I can’t keep doing this,’” said Ms. Palliser, who made from about $32,000 to $40,000 a year as an assistant manager. She said her husband later quit his job to help with their child-care responsibilities.She won a portion of a multimillion-dollar settlement under a lawsuit accusing a Panera franchisee, Covelli Enterprises, of failing to pay overtime to hundreds of assistant managers. Panera and representatives of the franchise did not respond to requests for comment.Gassan Marzuq, who earned a salary of around $40,000 a year as the manager of a Dunkin’ Donuts for several years until 2012, said in a lawsuit that he had worked roughly 70 hours or more in a typical week. He testified that he had spent 90 percent of his time on tasks like serving customers and cleaning, and that he could not delegate this work “because you’re always short on staff.”Mr. Marzuq eventually won a settlement worth $50,000. A lawyer for T.J. Donuts, the owner of the Dunkin’ Donuts franchise, said the company disputed Mr. Marzuq’s claims and maintained “that he was properly classified as a manager.”Workers and their lawyers said employers exploited their desire to move up the ranks in order to hold down labor costs.“Some of us want a better opportunity, a better life for our families,” said Gonzalo Espinosa, who said that in 2019 he often worked 80 hours a week as the manager of a Jack in the Box in California but that he did not receive overtime pay. “They use our weakness for their advantage.”Mr. Espinosa said his salary of just over $30,000 was based on an hourly wage of about $16 for a 40-hour workweek, implying that his true hourly wage was closer to half that amount — and well below the state’s minimum wage. The franchise did not respond to requests for comment.The paper by Dr. Cohen and his co-authors includes evidence that companies that are financially strapped are more likely to misclassify regular workers as managers, and that this tactic is especially common in low-wage industries like retail, dining and janitorial services.Still, lawyers who bring such cases say the practice also occurs regularly in white-collar industries such as tech and banking.When companies are financially strapped or in low-wage industries like retail and fast food, they are more likely to misclassify regular workers as managers, a recent report found.Max Whittaker for The New York Times“They have a job title like relationship manager or personal banker, and they greet you, try to get you to open account,” said Justin Swartz, a partner at the firm Outten & Golden. “They’re not managers at all.”Mr. Swartz, who estimated that he had helped bring more than two dozen overtime cases against banks, said some involved a so-called branch manager inside a big-box store who was the only bank employee on site and largely performed the duties of a teller.The practice appears to have become more difficult to root out in recent years, as more employers have required workers to sign contracts with mandatory arbitration clauses that preclude lawsuits.Many of the cases “are not economically viable anymore,” said Mr. Swartz, citing the increased difficulty of bringing them individually through arbitration.Some lawyers said only an increase in the limit below which workers automatically receive overtime pay is likely to meaningfully rein in misclassification. With a higher cutoff, simply paying workers overtime is often cheaper than avoiding overtime costs by substantially increasing their pay and labeling them managers.“That’s why companies fought it so hard under Obama,” said Ms. Aaron, a partner at Winebrake & Santillo, alluding to a 2016 Labor Department rule raising the overtime limit to about $47,500 from about $23,500. A federal judge suspended the rule, arguing that the Obama administration lacked the authority to raise the salary limit by such a large amount.The Trump administration later adopted the current cutoff of about $35,500, and the Biden administration has indicated that it will propose raising the cutoff substantially this year. Business groups say such a change will not help many workers because employers are likely to lower base wages to offset overtime pay. More