Layoffs and Job Reductions

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The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    November Jobs Report Shows Gain of 227,000; Unemployment Rises

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    Hiring bounced back after disruptions from storms and a major strike.Job creation bounced back in November after disruptions from storms and a major strike, reinforcing a picture of modest employment expansion over the past several months.The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With upward revisions to September and October figures, the three-month average gain is 173,000, slightly higher than the average over the six months before that.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent in October, as fewer people were able to find work. But for those who had jobs, wages jumped more than expected and were 4 percent higher than they were a year earlier.Unemployment rate More

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    October Jobs Report Shows Hiring Slowed Amid Storms and Strikes

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    U.S. payrolls grew by only 12,000 in October, a figure that left markets placid but fueled political contention. Unemployment remained 4.1 percent.Job creation stalled in October, a month battered by strikes and hurricanes, presenting an unclear picture of where the labor market was headed even as overall economic growth remained impressive.Employers added only 12,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, substantially fewer than economists had forecast. The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, remained 4.1 percent.The report is the last before a presidential election in which polls have consistently found the economy to be a top issue for voters, and the low figure supplied a talking point for Republicans. It also strengthened the case for another interest rate cut when Federal Reserve policymakers meet next week.“It’s hard to say, ‘This was a strong report if it were not for the strikes and hurricanes,’” said Oliver Allen, a senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “If the numbers still look like that next month, and we have another step down in revisions, it’s a pretty weak set of prints.”Gains for August and September were revised downward, bringing the three-month average to 104,000 — down from 189,000 over the six months before that.Markets took the muddled data in stride, but the political reaction was fierce, with former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign saying the report was “a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy.”Wages Rise SlightlyYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Boeing Reaches New Deal With Union in Hopes of Ending Strike

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    The aerospace manufacturer’s largest union said it would put the contract to a vote on Monday by its 33,000 members, who rejected two earlier agreements.Boeing’s largest union said on Thursday that it would hold a vote on a new contract offer, after workers rejected two earlier proposals. The union’s 33,000 members have been on strike since Sept. 13, dealing a damaging blow to the struggling aerospace manufacturer.The offer was negotiated by company and union leaders, with help from Biden administration officials, including the acting labor secretary, Julie Su. In a statement, the union encouraged workers to accept the offer in voting scheduled for Monday.“It is time for our members to lock in these gains and confidently declare victory,” said a statement from the leaders of two chapters of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, who represent the workers on strike. “We believe asking members to stay on strike longer wouldn’t be right as we have achieved so much success.”If workers do not take the deal, they “risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future,” the union leaders warned. District 751 of the union represents the vast majority of the workers, while another chapter, District W24, represents the rest.The workers mostly support the company’s commercial airplane division in the Seattle area, where Boeing builds most such jets. They walked off the job after 95 percent of those voting rejected a contract that union and company leaders had negotiated. The workers rejected a second offer with better terms last week, with 64 percent voting against the proposal. The union has not said how many people participated in either vote.The new contract offer represents a slight improvement over the recently rejected proposal. It would raise wages cumulatively by more than 43 percent over the four years of the contract, up from nearly 40 percent in the last offer, according to details shared by the union. The deal also includes a $12,000 bonus for agreeing to the contract, which can be diverted in any amount to employee retirement plans. That figure combines a $7,000 ratification bonus and a $5,000 one-time retirement contribution in the previous offer.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Boeing Union Workers Reject New Contract and Extend Strike

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    The vote, hours after Boeing reported a $6.1 billion loss, will extend a nearly six-week-long strike at factories where the company makes its best-selling commercial plane.Boeing’s largest union rejected a tentative labor contract on Wednesday by a wide margin, extending a damaging strike and adding to the mounting financial problems facing the company, which hours earlier had reported a $6.1 billion loss.The contract, the second that workers have voted down, was opposed by 64 percent of those voting, according to the union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. The union represents about 33,000 workers, but it did not disclose how many voted on Wednesday.“There’s much more work to do. We will push to get back to the table, we will push for the members’ demands as quickly as we can,” said Jon Holden, president of District 751 of the union, which represents the vast majority of the workers and has led in the talks. He delivered that message at the union’s Seattle headquarters to a room of members chanting, “Fight, fight.”Jon Holden, president of the union’s District 751, announcing the vote results on Wednesday in Seattle: “We will push to get back to the table.”M. Scott Brauer for The New York TimesBoeing declined to comment on the vote, which was a setback for the company’s new chief executive, Kelly Ortberg, who is trying to restore its reputation and business with a strategy he described in detail earlier on Wednesday. In remarks to workers and investors, Mr. Ortberg said Boeing needed to undergo “fundamental culture change” to stabilize the business and to improve execution.“Our leaders, from me on down, need to be closely integrated with our business and the people who are doing the design and production of our products,” he said. “We need to be on the factory floors, in the back shops and in our engineering labs. We need to know what’s going on, not only with our products, but with our people.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Best Books About the Economy to Read Before the 2024 Election

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    Voters are forever worried about the economy — the price of homes and groceries, the rise and fall of the stock market, and, of course, taxes — but the economic policies that affect these things often seem unapproachable. Donald Trump wants to cut taxes and raise tariffs. Kamala Harris wants to raise taxes on high-income households and expand the social safety net. But what does that mean? And what are they hoping to achieve?Part of what makes economic policy difficult is the need to understand not just the direct impact of a change but also its many indirect effects. A tax credit to buy houses, for example, might end up benefiting home sellers more than home purchasers if a surge in demand drives up prices.The mathematics and jargon that economists use in journals facilitate precise scientific communication, which has the indirect effect of excluding everyone else. Meanwhile, the “economists” you see on TV or hear on the radio are more often telling you (usually incorrectly) whether the economy will go into recession without explaining why.But some authors do a good job of walking the line between accessibility and expertise. Here are five books to help you crack the nut on the economy before Election Day.The Little Book of EconomicsBy Greg IpThe best way to understand things like the causes of recessions and inflation and the consequences of public debt is to take an introductory economics course and do all the problem sets. The second-best way? Read “The Little Book of Economics.” Don’t be fooled by its compact form and breezy writing: This book, by the Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator Greg Ip, manages to pack in just about everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask about the gross domestic product.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Employers Add 254,000 Jobs in September as Economic Growth Remains Solid

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    U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs in September, a sign that economic growth remained solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent.Many have doubted it. Even the optimists have worried about it. But despite the hand-wringing, the American economy appears to be in remarkably good shape.Businesses added 254,000 jobs in September, the government reported on Friday, far surpassing forecasts. It was a sign that the economy, rather than stumbling into a slowdown, still has a spring in its step.The unemployment rate declined to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent. Reported pay gains for workers were also better than expected, at 4 percent over the previous 12 months, an uptick from the August reading. With inflation continuing to ease substantially, that is welcome news for households trying to gain financial traction.A Slight DropUnemployment rate More

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    Boeing to Begin Temporary Layoffs Due to Strike

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    The aerospace giant said it would temporarily lay off tens of thousands of employees to stem losses from a walkout by the machinists’ union.Boeing will start furloughing tens of thousands of employees in the coming days as it seeks to blunt the effects of a strike involving its largest union, the company said on Wednesday.The strike, which began on Friday, has drastically slowed production of commercial airplanes because most of the union’s more than 33,000 members work in manufacturing in the Seattle area. Boeing announced a series of cost-cutting measures this week to stem losses that could reach into the billions of dollars in a prolonged strike.“With production paused across many key programs in the Pacific Northwest, our business faces substantial challenges and it is important that we take difficult steps to preserve cash and ensure that Boeing is able to successfully recover,” the company’s chief executive, Kelly Ortberg, said in a message to employees on Wednesday.Mr. Ortberg joined Boeing last month, part of a management shuffle after a panel blew off one of the company’s planes in flight this year, leading to a crisis for the company. In response, federal regulators limited Boeing’s plane production and the company initiated a series of changes aimed at improving quality and safety.Managers planned to meet with workers on Wednesday to review how the temporary furloughs, which Mr. Ortberg said would affect “a large number of U.S.-based executives, managers and employees,” would play out. He also said that he and other company leaders would take a pay cut for the rest of the strike, though he did not say by how much.Employees will continue to receive benefits. And, for some, the temporary furloughs will be cycled in, with workers taking one week off every four weeks, on a rolling basis. It was not immediately clear which workers would be affected by the furloughs. Engineers, who are represented by a chapter of the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, are still required to work during the strike.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why Low Layoff Numbers Don’t Mean the Labor Market Is Strong

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    Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.As job growth has slowed and unemployment has crept up, some economists have pointed to a sign of confidence among employers: They are, for the most part, holding on to their existing workers.Despite headline-grabbing job cuts at a few big companies, overall layoffs remain below their levels during the strong economy before the pandemic. Applications for unemployment benefits, which drifted up in the spring and summer, have recently been falling.But past recessions suggest that layoff data alone should not offer much comfort about the labor market. Historically, job cuts have come only once an economic downturn was well underway.

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    Layoffs per month
    Data is seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesThe Great Recession, for example, officially began at the end of 2007, after the bursting of the housing bubble and the ensuing mortgage crisis. The unemployment rate began rising in early 2008. But it was not until late 2008 — after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of a global financial crisis — that employers began cutting jobs in earnest.The milder recession in 2001 offers an even clearer example. The unemployment rate rose steadily from 4.3 percent in May to 5.7 percent at the end of the year. But apart from a brief spike in the fall, layoffs hardly rose.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More