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How Engagement Rings Explain What’s Happening in the Economy

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A major jeweler claims the pandemic may have prevented people from meeting their future fiancés, cutting demand for engagement rings. Inflation and anxiety among shoppers haven’t helped.Aftershocks from the coronavirus pandemic continue to rumble across the U.S. economy, and Signet Jewelers shared a surprising one this week: The company is selling fewer engagement rings this year because, it says, singles who were stuck at home during lockdowns failed to meet their would-be fiancés in 2020.“As we predicted, there were fewer engagements in the quarter resulting from Covid’s disruption of dating three years ago,” Virginia C. Drosos, the chief executive at Signet, which owns Kay Jewelers and Zales, told investors on Thursday. Shares of Signet, the largest jewelry retailer in the United States, tumbled after the company cut its forecasts for sales and profit for the rest of the year.In a way, the engagement ring has become a sparkly microcosm of the American economy. The bridal jewelry business is being buffeted by the delayed effects of the pandemic, rapid inflation that is squeezing consumers and a growing sense of nervousness among shoppers.Some of the volatility is owed purely to the pandemic. Weddings were canceled in droves during 2020 lockdowns, but bounced back starting in late 2021 and throughout 2022, and were expected to level off over the coming years as more typical patterns returned. Wedding-related activity does appear to show some early signs of slowing in 2023, but it is unclear whether that’s the result of a 2020 dating dry spell, per Signet, or simply a return to the longstanding shift toward later and fewer marriages.What is clear? Wedding trends are also tied to broader, and potentially longer-lasting, economic forces. Signet may be selling less because fewer people are getting down on one knee, but also because ring shoppers are becoming more cautious and spending less amid rapid inflation and rising uncertainty about the direction of the economy. Both the volume and value of jewelry sold by Signet last quarter declined.Ms. Drosos said that the company had “expected the low-double-digit decline in engagements that we saw this quarter,” but that other factors were also at play. “Recent consumer confidence, lower tax refunds, economic concerns triggered by regional bank failures and continued inflation led to a weakening trend in spending across the jewelry industry,” she added.Consumers are contending with big challenges this year. Prices have climbed about 15 percent cumulatively over the past three years, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. Inflation has slowed in recent months, but many workers are finding that their wages are falling behind.The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to try to cool the economy and fight the stubborn price increases. Besides making it more expensive for consumers to shop on credit or take out loans, the rate moves have increased the chance that the economy might tip into a recession. As many households watch their savings dwindle and worry about their job security, they may be less willing to spend on big-ticket items like fancy diamond rings and bespoke wedding dresses.David’s Bridal, the wedding dress retailer, suggested in a bankruptcy filing this year that some brides had become increasingly budget-conscious.An “increasing number of brides are opting for less-traditional wedding attire, including thrift wedding dresses,” James Marcum, the company’s chief executive, said in a court filing.Like much of the economy, the wedding industry has shown signs of a split, as higher earners find that they are able to reach into their savings and keep spending, and lower-income families that spend a bigger share of their earnings on necessities like food begin to crack under the weight of inflation.LVMH, the luxury retail group that owns jewelers including Tiffany, reported continued growth in early 2023, including solid sales of jewelry.“Everybody was expecting 2023 to be a horrendous year for luxury in the U.S.,” Jean-Jacques Guiony, LVMH’s chief financial officer, told investors in April, explaining that a collapse had not materialized. “It’s normalizing, but it’s not bad, either.”But at more mass-market brands like Kay and Zales, shoppers may be starting to pull back.“We began to see softening at higher price points, which previously had been relatively insulated, and lower price points remained under pressure,” Joan Hilson, Signet’s finance chief, said during Thursday’s call.Signet is hoping wedding-ring demand will bounce back: It is predicting 500,000 more engagements from 2024 to 2026 than the prepandemic trend would suggest, as dating delayed by the lockdowns leads to matches. But analysts at Bank of America “worry that some of that rebound will be offset” by a “pinched consumer” spending less on jewelry, they wrote.Shane McMurray, founder of the Wedding Report, is skeptical of a big gap year in engagements. He expects weddings to fall 20 percent in 2023 from 2022 levels as trends return to normal. And Lyman Stone, director of research at the consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, agreed that the current slowdown in weddings might reflect a return to previous trends rather than a one-off weakening.“It does look like 2023 is going to be a low year,” he said. “I do think that placing the blame for that on lockdowns in 2020 is a little bit strained.” More

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    China Offers Women Perks for Having Babies, if They’re Married

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    Beijing is giving incentives to stem a demographic crisis, but its control over childbirth and its suppression of women’s rights are making it difficult for some aspiring parents to start a family.When Chan Zhang heard about the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, she was baffled that Americans were still arguing over abortion rights.“Here, overall, the society does not encourage abortion,” said Ms. Zhang, a 37-year-old junior faculty member at a prestigious university on China’s east coast, “but I feel like women have the right in terms of whether they want to get an abortion.”Abortion, like almost all reproductive issues in China, is heavily centered on Chinese Communist Party authority. The party for decades forced abortions and sterilizations on women as part of its one-child policy. Now, faced with a demographic crisis, it wants women to have more than one baby — and preferably three.But Beijing is still dictating who can have babies, discriminating against single women like Ms. Zhang and minorities through draconian family planning policies. The question now, many women say, is why they would choose to have any babies at all.With China’s birthrate at a historical low, officials have been doling out tax and housing credits, educational benefits and even cash incentives to encourage women to have more children. Yet the perks are available only to married couples, a prerequisite that is increasingly unappealing to independent women who, in some cases, would prefer to parent alone.Babies born to single parents in China have long struggled to receive social benefits like medical insurance and education. Women who are single and pregnant are regularly denied access to public health care and insurance that covers maternity leave. They are not legally protected if employers fire them for being pregnant.The sweeteners offered to new mothers by the government are not doing much to reverse the demographic crisis, especially in the face of China’s steadily declining marriage rate.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesSome single women, including Ms. Zhang, are simply choosing not to have a child, quietly pushing back against Beijing’s control over women’s bodies. Those who find ways to get around the rules often face consequences from the state.“Many people think that being a single mom is a process of confrontation with public opinion, but it’s not,” said Sarah Gao, 46, a single parent who lives in Beijing and is outspoken about reproductive rights. “It’s actually this system.”Chinese law requires a pregnant woman and her husband to register their marriage to get prenatal care at a public hospital. When Ms. Gao found out that she was pregnant, she had to tell doctors at one hospital that her husband was overseas to be admitted.Her daughter was born in November 2016. Eight months later, Ms. Gao was fired from her job, prompting her to file a lawsuit accusing the company of workplace discrimination. The company won because Ms. Gao does not qualify for legal benefits and protections as an unmarried mother.The court said her unmarried birth “did not conform to China’s national policy.” She is appealing for a third time.China’s national family planning policy does not explicitly state that an unmarried woman cannot have children, but it defines a mother as a married woman and favors married mothers. Villages offer cash bonuses to families with new babies. Dozens of cities have expanded maternity leave and added an extra month for second- and third-time married mothers. One province in northwestern China is even considering a full year of leave. Some have created “parenting breaks” for married couples with young children.China’s national family planning policy is meant to favor married mothers. Some single women are choosing to remain childless, quietly pushing back against Beijing’s control over reproductive rights.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesBut the sweeteners are not doing much to reverse the demographic crisis, especially in the face of China’s steadily declining marriage rate, which reached a 36-year low last year. Women who came of age during the greatest period of economic growth in China’s modern history increasingly worry that their hard-earned independence will be taken away if they settle down.A politician at China’s most recent annual meeting of its rubber-stamp legislature suggested that the party be more tolerant toward single women who wanted children, giving them the same rights as married couples. Yet even as a shrinking population threatens Beijing’s long-term economic ambitions, the Chinese authorities have often failed to introduce lasting policy changes.The authorities moved last year to scrap the use of “social support” fees — a sort of penalty — that single mothers pay to get benefits for their children. But some areas have been slow to adopt the new rules, and the regulations can vary because enforcement is left to the discretion of local governments. Recent changes to Chinese law make it illegal to discriminate against the children of single parents, but some women still have to navigate an unsympathetic bureaucracy.Last year, landlocked Hunan Province said it would consider providing fertility services for single women, but it has not made much progress. When Shanghai decided to drop its policy of giving maternity benefits only to married women, it reversed the decision just a few weeks later, underlining just how hard it is for the authorities to loosen their grip on family planning.Chinese law requires a pregnant woman and her husband to register their marriage to get prenatal care at a public hospital. To be admitted at a hospital, one single mother had to tell doctors that her husband was overseas.Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times“At the societal level, it is a threat to the legally recognized marriage institution and social stability,” said Zheng Mu, an assistant professor of sociology at the National University of Singapore who studies fertility in China.Ten years ago, Kelly Xie, 36, got married because she wanted to have a child. “I had got to that age at the time, then I was picking and choosing and it seemed that he was the most suitable one,” she said. Four years later, she gave birth to a daughter, but she was unhappy in her marriage.The Latest on China: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 6Pressure on Taiwan. More

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    The Wedding Business Is Booming, a Short-Term Jolt to the Economy

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    Meg Van Dyke, who runs a Pittsburgh wedding planning company, spent a recent weeknight frantically calling photographers for a May 2022 wedding. All eight who fit her couple’s criteria were fully booked.“I’ve never had a problem finding vendors before,” she said. “It’s absolutely booming.”Weddings are roaring back after a pandemic-induced slump, leading to booked-up venues, a dearth of photographers and rising prices on catered dinners. As demand picks up, it’s providing an additional jolt of spending to the U.S. economy.The race to the aisle is payback after a lost year of ceremonies. As lockdowns swept the nation, weddings slowed abruptly at the onset of the pandemic. Shane McMurray, founder of The Wedding Report, estimates that 1.3 million marriages took place in the United States last year, compared with the typical 2.1 million. Those were often “micro-weddings,” according to industry insiders, with just a handful of guests, if any were present at all.That’s turning around sharply. Weddings have not quite returned to normal for 2021, but they are quickly rebounding, and Mr. McMurray forecasts that next year they will jump to the highest level since the 1980s as engaged couples who have waited out a global pandemic finally tie the knot.Weddings Are Picking Up After a Pandemic SlumpThey are expected to jump sharply in 2022, to levels last seen nearly 40 years ago.

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    Weddings in the United States by Year
    Source: The Wedding ReportBy The New York TimesOnce that pent-up demand plays out, he expects that long-running trends like cohabitation without marriage will come to dominate.Many economists agree. “My instinct, immediately, is: This is not a marriage boom; this is a wedding boom,” said Jessamyn Schaller, an economist at Claremont McKenna College. She added that even with the short-term pop, there were likely to be fewer marriages than there would have been had the pandemic never happened.In other words, the wedding boom is probably a blip.Marriage rates have been dropping for decades, and hit a record low of 6.1 per 1,000 people in 2019, down from 8.2 in 2000. The decline has come alongside a drop in fertility, which also hit a new low before the onset of the coronavirus.What the wedding rebound could do is lay the groundwork for a brief post-pandemic baby bump, since couples often wait to exchange vows before they have children.Lyman Stone, a research fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, tracks fertility intentions in surveys and keeps a close eye on state-level birth data. A baby bust that took hold after the pandemic started already appears to be turning around, much faster than expected.“It is a rapid return to normal,” Mr. Stone said. The nascent wedding rush “probably means that we have a couple of years here where we have somewhat more positive fertility than was previously expected.”Workers erecting a tent for the wedding of Ariana Papier and Andrew Jenzer in Richmond, Mass., a town in the Berkshires.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesMagdalena Mieczkowska, a wedding planner, has seen demand take off for events in 2022.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesMike Moreno, a sous chef, preparing chickens for Ms. Papier’s wedding this month, which had been postponed from June 2020.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesVendors are charging more for catered meals and cutlery rentals.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesLest onlookers get too excited, Mr. Stone points out that what was expected was a slow decline in births..And Melissa Kearney, an economist at the University of Maryland, cautioned that the early signs of a fertility rebound playing out now could be a false signal, since the pandemic is still playing out and it will take time to see how birth trends shape up.But Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the freelance job site Upwork, thinks that many economists might be taking too dim of a view of the pandemic’s ability to put America on a different social trajectory. He hasn’t penciled in a big increase in marriage, but he does think that younger adults may change their ways in the wake of the crisis.People have saved a lot of money during the pandemic, thanks to long months at home, a rising stock market and repeated checks from the government. Remote work and the shift toward more work from home have introduced new geographic flexibility for many young adults.Millennials who had been delaying home buying, for instance, may now have an opening.“That’s a pretty good recipe for stronger household formation,” Mr. Ozimek said, referring to what happens when adults move out on their own or in with partners rather than parents or, in some cases, roommates. “You can afford to buy your own house, start your own family.”If that was to play out on any substantial scale, it would have big implications for the economy. Millennials are the nation’s largest generation. Any change in homeownership, marriage or fertility rates among this group would fuel spending on everything from outdoor grills and washing machines to day care.But it will take years to see whether the pandemic marked some sort of turning point for American family life.What is clear now is that it pushed back ceremonies, making for a short-term spending boost on cakes, china, dresses, hair, makeup and photographers — a source of bottlenecks, but also a welcome recovery for some vendors who saw business drop precipitously amid lockdowns.Ms. Van Dyke in Pittsburgh said brides with their hearts set on prized venues — like the downtown Omni William Penn Hotel — are setting their ceremony dates in 2023 as they compete for dates. In Washington, D.C., the sweet shop Baked & Wired went from selling tiny six-inch cakes during the pandemic to receiving more orders than it can accept for Razmanian Devil wedding cakes: tiered layers of lemon cake filled with raspberry jam and topped with buttercream.“It’s Tuesday, and they’re like, ‘Hey, can I get a wedding cake for Saturday?’” said Teresa Velazquez, the shop’s owner. “We’ve waited this long — let’s throw it together and get married.”Township Four Foristry & Home in Pittsfield, Mass., has temporarily closed its retail store to focus on a surge in wedding customers.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesNathan Hanford, a co-owner of Township Four, assembling bouquets for a wedding.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesThis season has been a welcome rebound for vendors whose business dropped during lockdowns.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesJacquelyn Potter had been booked as the photographer for Ms. Papier’s postponed 2020 wedding. Now, surging demand is leading to booked-up venues, a dearth of photographers and rising prices.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesMarvin Alexander, a makeup artist in New York City who decided to shift from the fashion industry to bridal during the depths of the pandemic, is also seeing lots of last-minute bookings, including from rescheduled weddings. The events are often more modest affairs, with smaller wedding parties and guest lists, in a nod to virus risks.“I’m starting to see a few people being more comfortable about 2022, even with the Delta variant strong on our heels,” Mr. Alexander said.On the other end of the spectrum, Magdalena Mieczkowska, a wedding planner, has seen demand in the Hudson Valley and Berkshires take off for big events in 2022. And clients are willing to spend: Her average was typically $100,000 per event, but now she’s seeing some weekends come in at $200,000 or more.“People were postponing, and now they have more savings,” she said. Plus, vendors are charging more for catered meals and cutlery rentals. “Everyone is trying to make up for their financial losses from the 2020 season.”Wedding industry experts said they expected demand to remain robust into 2023 before tapering back to normal, as new bookings vie for resources with delayed weddings like the one Ariana Papier, 31, and Andrew Jenzer, 32, held last weekend in Richmond, Mass., a town in the Berkshires.The couple had to cancel their original June 6, 2020, date, opting to elope instead, but rescheduled the event to Aug. 7, complete with signature cocktails (a bush berry paloma and an Earl Grey blueberry old-fashioned), a dance floor and s’mores.“We’re calling it a vow renewal and celebration,” Ms. Papier said just ahead of the ceremony, adding it was the couple’s third attempted venue, thanks to pandemic hiccups.“Third and best,” she said. “We are so excited.” More