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    When Private Equity Came for the Toddler Gyms

    Tiffany Cianci spends most of her days in socks, padding around the fitness studio she operates in Frederick, Md., about an hour outside Washington. Her clients are young: kids ranging from 4 months to 12 years old. They come to learn somersaults, try the monkey bars, sing some songs. (“Little Red Caboose,” complete with a train whistle accompaniment, is one of her favorites.)Ms. Cianci, 41, spent the first part of her career as a sommelier, specializing in sake. In 2017, wanting to leave the hospitality industry for something that allowed her to spend more time at home, she and her husband bought their facility as part of a franchise chain called The Little Gym. Its slogan: “Serious fun.”They got what generations of franchise owners have gotten out of similar deals, with brands like McDonald’s or Jiffy Lube: a known brand name and detailed business plans in exchange for an initial fee and a cut of the revenue. For Ms. Cianci, it was more than just a business.“I love it. I really love it,” said Ms. Cianci, a mother of three who studied dance. “I love my students, and I love that it lets me make a difference.”In the last year and a half, since The Little Gym was acquired by a private equity-backed firm called Unleashed Brands, her work has felt far less idyllic.According to legal filings, internal documents, and interviews with more than half a dozen other franchisees — most of whom requested anonymity so as to avoid retaliation — Unleashed began to demand higher fees and institute more stringent requirements, which the independent owners thought would threaten their profits. The day after Ms. Cianci organized her fellow franchise owners into an association to push back against the changes, the corporate office told her it was terminating her license on the grounds that she was chronically late in paying her fees. Given the timing, Ms. Cianci maintains in the legal filings that it constituted retaliation.Tiffany Cianci, the owner of Teeter Tots, is fighting a court battle against Unleashed Brands, which bought the company that originally franchised her business.Lexey Swall for The New York TimesAlong the way, Unleashed Brands surveilled Ms. Cianci’s business with undercover shoppers, met with her landlord and disparaged her to fellow franchisees. When she tried to salvage her business under a new name — it’s now called Teeter Tots Music n Motion — the company sued, accusing her of violating its trademarks and a noncompete clause in her franchise agreement.The episode has plunged Ms. Cianci about $300,000 into debt and enmeshed Unleashed in a nasty court battle not long after it acquired multiple new brands. The outcome will be a test of just how much a franchisor can unilaterally change the rules of a business relationship that has served as an on-ramp to entrepreneurship for hundreds of thousands of people.The legal fight — along with two others Unleashed has faced with franchisees at its other brands — also reveals the challenges of applying the private equity playbook to the unique world of franchises.Private equity has notched decades of high returns for investors by following a well-worn strategy: acquire distressed or undervalued companies or real estate, increase profits and then sell them. Greatest hits include foreclosed homes, highway rest stops and coal mines bought out of bankruptcy.Franchising has become one of private equity’s targets du jour. According to the research firm FRANdata, the number of franchise brands acquired by private equity firms and other investors rose from 52 in 2019 to 149 in 2021 and was on track to nearly equal that total in 2022.Private equity firms tout their ability to bring new ideas, technologies and efficiencies, and franchises, financially weakened by the pandemic, appeared ripe for those kinds of changes.But the reality is not so straightforward. The nation’s franchisees — 237,619, according to FRANdata — like Ms. Cianci, think of themselves as independent small businesses, who have often sunk their life savings into the enterprise. That’s why Little Gym owners are resisting Unleashed’s attempts to squeeze their profits to pad its own.Unlike, say, factory workers, who can be laid off at will, franchisees are supposed to be protected by legal documents that prescribe a certain business model for years at a time. Moreover, Unleashed — and its investors — need franchisees to stay motivated so they can keep generating revenue and recruit others to keep expanding the franchise system.Ms. Cianci, who is now in arbitration with Unleashed Brands, has been working to change state laws to better protect franchisees who might find themselves in her position down the line. The Federal Trade Commission, meanwhile, is reconsidering federal regulations on franchisors, which haven’t changed for more than a decade.Direct inquiries to Michael Browning Jr., Unleashed’s chief executive and founder, and other executives were not returned. Instead, a public relations firm answered detailed questions via email, saying the company’s changes have improved business across the board. “The financial impact and franchisee benefit of these efforts is undeniable,” the spokesman wrote.Many of the changes, however, are simply not what franchisees say they’d signed up for.“What this reflects is a conflict between the private equity firm that bought this and what they actually bought,” said Francine Lafontaine, an economist at the University of Michigan who specializes in franchise relationships. “In their due diligence, they didn’t seem to think too much about who they were going to be working with once they owned this chain.”‘Candy Land board of life’Ms. Cianci helps Mariah Strawley move her daughter, Brynlee Strawley, 19 months, through an obstacle course during a class.Lexey Swall for The New York TimesMr. Browning, the son of a real estate developer with a background in health care investing, viewed The Little Gym as a perfect part of his vision: He was building a conveyor belt of activities for kids.Mr. Browning spent the 2010s building a franchise called Urban Air, a chain of trampoline parks where parents could spend $700 on a birthday party to remember for their seventh grader. The venture was staked by Mr. Browning and his father and eventually Urban Air formed Unleashed.Private equity was also interested in the Brownings’ growing business. While a company spokesman did not clarify the company’s relationship with private equity, on the websites of the private equity firms AHR Growth Partners, Mantucket Capital and MPK Equity Partners, Unleashed or its brands are listed among their current or recent investments.In 2021, Mr. Browning decided to scale up, following a hot new trend in private equity: building “platforms” to consolidate several brands in a similar industry that could then cross-sell a range of services to their customers, as well as sell more franchises to their existing franchisees. Mr. Browning would often mention Neighborly, a roll-up of home services offerings that had been bought by the private equity giant KKR, as his model.“If I have five home services brands, I can pitch all those services to the same customer,” said Ritwik Donde, senior research analyst at FRANdata, which helps investors vet potential acquisitions. “Those complementary systems lower the cost of customer acquisition. ”Mr. Browning’s company, Unleashed Brands, began buying other youth enrichment chains. Parents — always moms, in Mr. Browning’s conception — could then spend money at his companies from the birth of their kids through high school graduation.Ms. Cianci was immediately skeptical of Mr. Browning’s vision for rapidly collecting children’s services and integrating their sales, operations and marketing.“That might be OK when you’re cleaning a dryer vent, but it’s not when you’re throwing around a 4-month-old and you need them to be safe,” Ms. Cianci said. “He was moving faster than he would need to get to know the business.”Ms. Cianci helped organize a group of Little Gym franchisees to contest some new requirements imposed by Unleashed Brands.Lexey Swall for The New York TimesTo kick off the new program, Unleashed invited all of its newly acquired franchisees to a conference in Orlando in October 2021, including Little Gym’s approximately 175 owners. The company rented out the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and held a fireworks show. And Mr. Browning treated attendees to a speech he called “vision casting,” in which he articulated his plans for building a family of children’s brands that families could spend money on from birth to age 18.The “Candy Land board of life,” he called it. He promised new tech tools that would make their lives easier. “Auto-magic,” he called it.Changes didn’t take long. Within weeks, long-tenured headquarters employees started leaving. In conversations with franchisees across the country, numerous owners expressed frustration that the support they depended on had evaporated; instead of calling a trusted adviser whenever they wanted, they had to file an online ticket. (Unleashed said that it “never sought to cut access” to its staff and that the ticket system was instituted to make sure they were responding in a timely fashion.)The company tried to impose a new payroll vendor that caused unending headaches. Certain activities, such as karate, were eliminated as Unleashed acquired businesses with similar programming; the company said it trimmed services with low enrollment to “streamline” the offerings. The company also outlined a process by which franchisees could lose their licenses if they failed to meet brand standards, which set a sour tone among some of the operators. To people who’d just made it through a pandemic and operated on thin margins even in good times, the changes felt unnecessary and destabilizing.In the fall of 2021, the company required all franchisees to sign a new agreement allowing Unleashed to automatically debit their bank accounts. Ms. Cianci noticed that it also contained broad language allowing the company to extract any other fees that might be owed, which she believed went beyond her franchise agreement.Under the advice of a lawyer, she refused to sign it and started to send her royalty payments via paper check. But she worried that most franchisees would simply accept the new arrangement, along with another requiring them to use — and pay for — a shared call center.To sound the alarm to others, Ms. Cianci held conference calls, often with a lawyer present. As concerns spread, in May a group of Little Gym franchisees formed the Happy Handstands Franchisee Association, which ultimately reached more than 90 percent participation from across the system. Ms. Cianci was elected president. The company started sending warning notices to franchisees who hadn’t signed the new agreements.On May 19, 2022, Happy Handstands’ lawyers sent Unleashed a cease-and-desist letter on behalf of the membership. The very next evening, an email popped up saying Ms. Cianci’s franchise had been terminated. When she tried to check it, her email account was gone, too. Unleashed said the company didn’t know she was the association’s president when they decided to terminate her. Ms. Cianci said it was widely known across the system and mentioned in a Facebook group visible to lower-level corporate executives.To save her business, Ms. Cianci went before an arbitrator and filed for a preliminary injunction decrying the termination as retaliatory; the arbitrator ruled that she hadn’t cleared the high legal bar necessary to stop the process. After that, she started tearing down all her Little Gym branding and adapting her curriculum so as not to violate the company’s trademarks. She paused when Unleashed’s lawyers wanted to discuss a settlement, which she said she rejected over its harsh terms. When they demanded she finish the process of “de-identifying” as a Little Gym immediately, she had difficulty getting started again because she had surgery on a broken foot.In June and July, the company sent undercover shoppers, including one who was a licensed private investigator, who posed as parents and asked Ms. Cianci’s employees what kinds of lessons they offered and whether they overlapped with The Little Gym’s programming. In early July, Unleashed, with the help of outside counsel DLA Piper, sued her in the superior court of Arizona for Maricopa County, where The Little Gym is based. The company accused her of failing to eliminate all branding fast enough, offering declarations from the investigators as evidence — the color scheme looked the same, for example, and a Wi-Fi network was still “TheLittleGym,” password “SeriousFun.”Soon after, the company’s lawyers also visited her landlord in Frederick, which Unleashed said was “part of a standard process to inquire as to the status of the lease.” According to Ms. Cianci’s notes from her subsequent conversation with the landlord, the lawyers told him that she was in legal trouble and wouldn’t be able to keep paying rent.Her landlord then sent her a letter, which was filed as evidence in court, declining to renew her lease and demanding more than $275,000 in back rent, including real estate taxes, most of which Ms. Cianci thought had been forgiven during the pandemic. Unleashed then exercised its option to take over the lease, although the building remains empty. (Her landlord declined to comment.)In mid-July, Unleashed Brands’ chief legal officer, Stephen Polozola, sent all Little Gym franchisees an email titled “Friendly Reminder on Confidentiality.” In it, without naming Ms. Cianci, he warned them not to share any information with a certain former franchisee, who he said had been terminated for not paying royalty fees on time.Further, he wrote that the company had received reports from “no less than seven” former employees who said that the unnamed franchisee had underpaid them and created a hostile work environment. The email finished with a grainy screenshot of a Facebook post containing a vulgar message that Mr. Polozola said had come from that same franchisee but didn’t have her name attached.The battle has put Ms. Cianci about $300,000 in debt and enmeshed Unleashed in a nasty court battle just as it tries to get its investment strategy off the ground.Lexey Swall for The New York TimesMs. Cianci, who had taken her son to a water park for his birthday, immediately started getting messages from other franchisees. None of it was true, she told them. As she would detail in court documents, the company allowed late payments for nearly all franchisees during the pandemic, and her gym had been closed by local ordinance for longer than most. She had continued to send her royalties in the mail, even after she refused to sign Unleashed’s new payment form, she said, and she was current on all her accounts when she was terminated. And the inappropriate Facebook post? She said she hadn’t written it.The allegations by Ms. Cianci’s former employees that Mr. Polozola referred to in his “friendly reminder” email sprang from messages that were sent by the workers in April 2021, before the Little Gym changed hands. After an investigation, no action was taken. The Unleashed spokesman said the company had relied on Ms. Cianci’s assurance that she would resolve the matter with the Maryland Department of Labor. Ms. Cianci said she made no such assurance.In response to an inquiry from The New York Times, the Department of Labor provided records showing a total of five complaints against Ms. Cianci for unpaid wages since 2017, two of which she resolved by paying her former employees; two were dropped; and one is still pending.But the emails from the former employees, which Unleashed supplied to The Times in unredacted form, detail complaints other than unpaid wages — such as dealing pills and mistreating children — that would seem to merit more immediate action by corporate headquarters, and which Ms. Cianci strongly denies.In late summer of 2021, when one of the former employees contacted Unleashed again, Mr. Polozola told Ms. Cianci to ignore it, according to an email exchange she provided — until he brought the complaints back up to discredit her nearly a year later.Arguing that such tactics seemed far outside the norms of legal practice, in September Ms. Cianci’s team filed a defense of so-called unclean hands, making the case that Unleashed Brands’ conduct had so tainted the proceedings that the judge should rule in their favor.But their motion never went anywhere. Before the judge could rule on it, Unleashed filed to dismiss its own case, arguing that its complaint that Ms. Cianci was essentially operating an unauthorized Little Gym was moot because her landlord had evicted her.The upshot of all this legal wrangling is that the fight between Ms. Cianci and Unleashed continues in arbitration in Arizona. In arbitration, potential damages are more limited, proceedings are sealed, and no precedent is created for other cases.Unleashed is fighting to stop Ms. Cianci from running what it says is a competing gym. Ms. Cianci is fighting for the chance to keep her new business and recoup the hundreds of thousands of dollars she has now spent on lawyers.One of them, Peter Lagarias, began his career at the F.T.C., enforcing the agency’s then-new franchise rule in the late 1970s, and spent most of his career advocating for franchisees both in the courtroom and the California statehouse. He took her case for a low rate, but arbitrators, whose cost must be split by both parties, can run tens of thousands of dollars, too.“They don’t want money,” Ms. Cianci said of Unleashed. “They want to destroy my life.”‘You can’t treat every business the same’Bill Walenda, 55, also got into running Little Gyms as a second career. After years as a financial planner, he wanted to buy a franchise — maybe a McDonald’s or a Dunkin’ Donuts — and his wife suggested The Little Gym, since he loved working with children. He opened a gym in New Jersey in 2002 and bought another in Illinois in 2009.After Ms. Cianci’s franchise was terminated, the Happy Handstands Franchisee Association fractured over strategy. Another group of owners started an association with a different approach: working “collaboratively” with the corporate office to provide feedback on changes. Mr. Walenda was elected president, and he has had limited success.He has been fighting a new point-of-sale system with a credit card processor controlled by Unleashed, which franchisees say is keeping customer payments for more than a week before sending them to gym owners, creating a cash flow crunch for owners. (Unleashed said the system keeps money for only two or three days.)The company also continues to try to make everyone use its new shared call center, which Mr. Walenda said would “take us out of the equation of dealing with our customers” — something that might work for a business like Urban Air, which processes thousands of people a week, but not the familial relationships on which The Little Gym operated for decades.“You can’t treat every business the same,” Mr. Walenda said. “And that’s really what’s causing all of this strife.”In November, Unleashed introduced a revised operations manual that lays out new rules and fees. It specifies the hours the businesses must be open, how quickly they must return customer calls, which architect they must use and what company meetings they must attend. Staff salaries were only supposed to make up 30 percent of revenue. The technology fee can rise to $399 from $119.The national advertising fee can rise to 5 percent of gross sales from 1 percent; part of that will go to a fund that supports other Unleashed properties. New fees appeared, including a $30,000 fee to renew the franchise agreement, and a fee of about $15,000 to relocate the facility. For some owners, the changes seem to mean that they can no longer operate profitably and will have to sell rather than renew.Unleashed said the changes only apply to new franchisees, and Mr. Walenda said his group has been able to negotiate away some of the fees even for them. But other fees remain, including a $100,000 payment if the franchise is terminated, and Mr. Walenda said the company continues to try to force everyone to use its call center and point-of-sale system. As much as he believes in the collaborative approach, he’s willing to litigate to stop the attempts to extract more money.“That’s all private equity cares about, as far as I’m concerned,” Mr. Walenda said. His business is doing well, which he credits to the postpandemic desperation for children’s activities; he said Unleashed’s new systems have mostly just taken more time for his managers to deal with.“We’re not people, we’re not businesses, we’re just numbers to them,” Mr. Walenda said. “And that’s a problem. Because ‘Let’s just keep squeezing everything we can out of them until we can’t squeeze anymore’ — it’s a good way of making money. It’s not a very good way to run a business.”Ms. Cianci says she hopes to prove that it’s possible to resist a franchiser’s efforts to impose its will outside what are supposed to be legally binding agreements.Lexey Swall for The New York TimesAfter a year of owning The Little Gym, Unleashed Brands says that average gym revenue rose 36.8 percent in 2022 over 2019. And its franchisee recruitment has focused on people who want to open multiple units, such as Cody Herndon, whom Unleashed provided as an example of a Little Gym owner with a more positive view of management.An Urban Air operator who sold one of his two parks to another private equity investor, Mr. Herndon bought the rights to open three Little Gyms in Texas last year. He said he was drawn by the opportunity to have longer-term relationships with families and thought the new systems Unleashed was pushing would work out in the end.“There are going to be so many massive benefits to any change that’s been asked,” Mr. Herndon said.While disclosing few other metrics, the company told Axios in May that it expected to generate $160 million in revenue in 2022 and was shopping for a buyer. It appears to have found one.Unleashed’s current private equity investors are selling their stakes in the company imminently, according to a company spokesman. But the company declined to disclose the buyer or the terms of the deal.Whoever the buyer may be, they’ve got significant franchisee rancor on their hands — even beyond the Little Gym.At Mr. Browning’s original chain, Urban Air, a franchisee association representing more than 50 owners tried to bring a lawsuit in 2020 over what it viewed as unfair changes that had revealed the “terms and provisions of the franchise agreements upon which investment decisions were made to be illusory and meaningless.” But a Texas court threw the case out on technical grounds, and with individual arbitration the only path forward, the effort fell apart.In late 2022, Unleashed was also sued by 54 franchisees of its Premier Martial Arts brand who said in legal filings that the franchisor gave them an unrealistic impression of the cost of running a martial arts studio, leaving them with dead-end businesses and debt.Michelle and Peter Silberman of Wexford, Pa., depleted their retirement savings, maxed out their credit cards and took out a home-equity loan to acquire three Premier Martial Arts territories in 2020.Ross Mantle for The New York TimesMichelle and Peter Silberman depleted their retirement savings, maxed out their credit cards and took out a home-equity loan to acquire three Premier Martial Arts territories in March 2020, before Unleashed owned the franchisor. The first opened near their home in the Pittsburgh area in May 2022. Mr. Silberman said Premier Martial Arts told them that they could expect profit margins as high as 48 percent, while running the studios as “semi-absentee” owners who had to run the business as little as 10 hours a week.The couple was charging parents $138 a month, which included two classes a week. The Silbermans, who had no experience with martial arts, said they relied on the company’s assurances that it would help them manage the business.But when attendance began to decline and expenses were piling up — the couple spent $370,000 acquiring the territories and operating the one facility — Mr. Silberman said Premier Martial Arts offered little additional help. Their studio closed this past fall. Although the trouble began long before Unleashed announced that it had bought Premier Martial Arts in early 2022, the lawsuit states that after the acquisition, “the same false statements were still made and the same bogus model was pitched.”In response, the Unleashed spokesman said the company is “not a party to any contract” with a Premier Martial Arts franchisee.As for the Silbermans, they have been trying to pay down their debts.“We are, hopefully, going to avoid bankruptcy by the skin of our teeth,” said Mr. Silberman.New rules for franchisesMs. Cianci’s case is winding its way through arbitration. Her new gym in a suburban mall next to Macy’s has only about 74 members, compared with the 275 she had before her termination by Unleashed. She said her husband, a federal trademark attorney, is working long hours to support them.In the meantime, she’s trying to prevent future franchisees from being put in the situation she found herself in.As the F.T.C. reviews the rules governing franchising, advocates have urged the commission to add stronger protections, such as more disclosure of how the average franchise location performs. The International Franchise Association — whose board Mr. Browning recently joined — has lobbied hard to avert those changes.In Congress, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat from Nevada, has done extensive research on problems with the franchise system and introduced two bills seeking to give franchisees more leverage. But their fate is uncertain.That’s why Ms. Cianci is focused on the states. Specifically Arizona, where The Little Gym headquarters is based. Lawmakers have introduced a bill that would protect franchisees’ right to form associations, require changes to their agreements to be presented in contractual form, and limit the circumstances under which their licenses could be terminated.At the very least, she hopes her case will ultimately prove that it’s possible to resist a franchisor’s efforts to impose its will outside what are supposed to be legally binding agreements, whether it’s how many birthday parties to offer or which insurance company to use.“That’s exactly what went wrong here,” Ms. Cianci said. “He’s buying companies where people had rights.” More

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    Japan’s Business Owners Can’t Find Successors. This Man Is Giving His Away.

    Hidekazu Yokoyama has spent three decades building a thriving logistics business on Japan’s snowy northern island of Hokkaido, an area that provides much of the country’s milk.Last year, he decided to give it all away.It was a radical solution for a problem that has become increasingly common in Japan, the world’s grayest society. As the country’s birthrate has plummeted and its population has grown older, the average age of business owners has risen to around 62. Nearly 60 percent of the country’s businesses report that they have no plan for what comes next.While Mr. Yokoyama, 73, felt too old to carry on much longer, quitting wasn’t an option: Too many farmers had come to depend on his company. “I definitely couldn’t abandon the business,” he said. But his children weren’t interested in running it. Neither were his employees. And few potential owners wanted to move to the remote, frozen north.So he placed a notice with a service that helps small-business owners in far-flung locales find someone to take over. The advertised sale price: zero yen.Mr. Yokoyama’s struggle symbolizes one of the most potentially devastating economic impacts of Japan’s aging society. It is inevitable that many small- and medium-size companies will go out of business as the population shrinks, but policymakers fear that the country could be hit by a surge in closures as aging owners retire en masse.In an apocalyptic 2019 presentation, Japan’s trade ministry projected that by 2025, around 630,000 profitable businesses could close up shop, costing the economy $165 billion and as many as 6.5 million jobs.Economic growth is already anemic, and the Japanese authorities have sprung into action in hopes of averting a catastrophe. Government offices have embarked on public relations campaigns to educate aging owners about options for continuing their businesses beyond their retirements and have set up service centers to help them find buyers. To sweeten the pot, the authorities have introduced large subsidies and tax breaks for new owners.Still, the challenges remain formidable. One of the biggest obstacles to finding a successor has been tradition, said Tsuneo Watanabe, a director of Nihon M&A Center, a company that specializes in finding buyers for valuable small- and medium-size enterprises. The company, founded in 1991, has become enormously lucrative, recording $359 million in revenue last year.Mr. Yokoyama plans to give away his land and equipment to a successor he has chosen.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesOne of Mr. Yokoyama’s workers.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesBut building that business has been a long process. In years past, small-business owners, particularly those who ran the country’s many decades- or even centuries-old companies, assumed that their children or a trusted employee would take over. They had no interest in selling their life’s work to a stranger, much less a competitor.More on Social Security and RetirementEarning Income After Retiring: Collecting Social Security while working can get complicated. Here are some key things to remember.An Uptick in Elder Poverty: Older Americans didn’t fare as well through the pandemic. But longer-term trends aren’t moving in their favor, either.Medicare Costs: Low-income Americans on Medicare can get assistance paying their premiums and other expenses. This is how to apply.Claiming Social Security: Looking to make the most of this benefit? These online tools can help you figure out your income needs and when to file.Mergers and acquisitions “weren’t well regarded. A lot of people felt that it was better to shut the company down than sell it,” Mr. Watanabe said. Perceptions of the industry have improved over the years, but there are “still many businesspeople who aren’t even aware that M&A is an option,” he added.While the market has found buyers for the businesses most ripe for the picking, it can seem nearly impossible for many small but economically vital companies to find someone to take over.In 2021, government help centers and the top five merger-and-acquisitions services found buyers for only 2,413 businesses, according to Japan’s trade ministry. Another 44,000 were abandoned. Over 55 percent of those were still profitable when they closed.Many of those businesses were in small towns and cities, where the succession problem is a potentially existential threat. The collapse of a business, whether a major local employer or a village’s only grocery store, can make it even harder for those places to survive the constant attrition of aging populations and urban flight that is hollowing out the countryside.After a government-run matching program failed to find someone to take over for Mr. Yokoyama, a bank suggested that he turn to Relay, a company based in Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost main island.Hay stored in a warehouse on the Yokoyama land.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesAn abandoned cowshed.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesRelay has differentiated itself by appealing to potential buyers’ sense of community and purpose. Its listings, featuring beaming proprietors in front of sushi shops and bucolic fields, are engineered to appeal to harried urbanites dreaming of a different lifestyle.The company’s task in Mr. Yokoyama’s case wasn’t easy. For most Japanese, the town where his business is situated, Monbetsu, which has around 20,000 people and is shrinking, might as well be the North Pole. The only industries are fishing and farming, and they largely go into hibernation as the days grow short and snow piles up to roof eaves. In deep winter, some tourists come to eat salmon roe and scallops and see the ice floes that lock in the city’s modest port.A street full of 1980s-era cabarets and restaurants is a snapshot of a more prosperous time when young fishermen gathered to let off steam and spend big paychecks. Today, faded posters peel off abandoned storefronts. The town’s biggest building is a new hospital.In 2001, Monbetsu constructed a new elementary school building just around the corner from Mr. Yokoyama’s company. It closed after just 10 years.In times past, the classrooms would have been filled with the grandchildren of local dairy farmers. But their own children have now mostly moved to cities in search of higher-paying, less onerous work.With no obvious successors, the farms have folded one after another. Decades-high inflation brought on by the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed dozens of holdouts into early retirement.Mr. Yokoyama’s employees are skeptical about his succession plan.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesThe workers are mostly in their 50s and 60s.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesAs local farmers have aged and their profits thinned, more of them have come to depend on Mr. Yokoyama for tasks like harvesting hay and clearing snow. His days start at 4 a.m. and end at 7 in the evening. He sleeps in a small room behind his office.It would be “extremely difficult” if his business folded, said Isao Ikeno, the manager of a nearby dairy cooperative that has turned heavily to automation as workers have become harder to find.On the cooperative’s farm, 17 employees tend to 3,000 head of cattle, and Mr. Yokoyama’s company fills in the gaps. No other area businesses can provide the services, Mr. Ikeno said.Mr. Yokoyama began contemplating retirement about six years ago. But it wasn’t clear what would happen to the business.While he had taken on a little over half a million dollars in debt, years of generous economic stimulus policies have kept interest rates at rock bottom, easing the burden, and the company’s annual profit margin was around 30 percent.The ad he placed on Relay acknowledged that the job was hard, but it said that no experience was needed. The best candidate would be “young and ready to work.”Whoever was chosen would take over the debts, but also inherit all of the business’s equipment and nearly 150 acres of prime farmland and forest. Mr. Yokoyama’s children will get nothing.“I told them that if you want to take it over, I’d leave it to you, but if you don’t want to do it, I’m giving it all to the next guy,” he said.Thirty inquiries poured in. Among those who expressed interest were a couple and a representative of a company that planned to expand. Mr. Yokoyama settled on a dark horse, 26-year-old Kai Fujisawa.A friend had showed Mr. Fujisawa the ad on Relay, and Mr. Fujisawa immediately jumped in a car and showed up on Mr. Yokoyama’s doorstep, impressing him with his youth and enthusiasm.Kai Fujisawa, Mr. Yokoyama’s potential successor.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesStill, the transition hasn’t been smooth. Mr. Yokoyama is not entirely convinced that Mr. Fujisawa is the right person for the job. The learning curve is steeper than either of them had imagined, and Mr. Yokoyama’s grizzled, chain-smoking employees are skeptical that Mr. Fujisawa will be able to live up to the boss’s reputation.Most of the company’s 17 employees are in their 50s and 60s, and it’s not clear where Mr. Fujisawa will find people to replace them as they retire.“There’s a lot of pressure,” Mr. Fujisawa said. But “when I came here, I was prepared to do this for the rest of my life.” More

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    Elon Musk Begins Layoffs at Twitter

    The social media company’s 7,500 employees have been bracing for job cuts since Mr. Musk took it over last week.SAN FRANCISCO — Elon Musk will begin laying off Twitter employees on Friday, culling the social media company’s 7,500-person work force a little over a week after completing his blockbuster buyout.Twitter employees were notified in a company-wide email that the layoffs were set to begin, according to a copy of the message seen by The New York Times. About half the company’s workers appeared set to lose their jobs, according to internal messages and an investor, though the final count may take time to become clear. The email instructed Twitter employees to go home and not return to the offices on Friday as the cuts proceeded. Mr. Musk completed his $44 billion purchase of Twitter on Oct. 27 and immediately fired its chief executive and other top managers. More executives have since resigned or were let go, while managers were asked to draw up lists of high- and low-performing employees, likely with an eye toward job cuts.Mr. Musk, the world’s richest man, faces pressure to make Twitter work financially. The deal was the largest leveraged buyout of a technology company in history. The billionaire also loaded about $13 billion in debt on Twitter for the acquisition and is on the hook to pay about $1 billion a year in interest payments. But Twitter has often lost money, and its cash flow is not robust. Mr. Musk may benefit from cutting costs so the company is less expensive to operate.Twitter’s layoffs are unlikely to be the largest in the tech industry by total number. The computer manufacturer HP cut 24,600 of its employees, about 7.5 percent, in 2008. It later cut tens of thousands more, reaching about 30 percent of its work force.Elon Musk’s Acquisition of TwitterCard 1 of 8A blockbuster deal. More

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    U.S. Details How It Plans to Police Foreign Firms

    A government committee issued new guidelines for how it determines penalties for foreign companies that break agreements to protect U.S. national security.WASHINGTON — The federal government on Thursday laid out for the first time how it will determine penalties for foreign companies that break agreements to protect American national security.When some foreign companies buy American firms, they sign agreements with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, a group of federal agencies, in order to mitigate national security concerns about the new ownership. The committee, known as CFIUS, has the ability to levy fines, some of them very large, on companies that break those agreements.The new guidelines issued on Thursday give insight into how the committee, which wields considerable power over foreign transactions but is often seen as a black box, makes its decisions. In recent years, CFIUS has forced a Chinese company to sell the dating app Grindr and has made another Chinese firm divest an American maker of hotel management software. The committee is currently negotiating an agreement with TikTok, the popular video app, to resolve concerns posed by its Chinese ownership.According to the new guidelines, the committee could consider more serious penalties when a foreign company’s failure to follow an agreement causes an especially grave risk to national security. CFIUS would also consider whether it took a long time for the committee to learn of a foreign company’s failure to comply with an agreement. And it would take into account whether a company’s failings had been intentional or simply negligent, according to the new guidelines, which are not binding.President Biden has been trying to limit the sway that China and other adversaries have over American companies and consumers. Lawmakers and regulators have grown increasingly concerned that China could use its proximity to major computer chip manufacturers in Asia to influence the supply of a device that is central to a vast array of products, including appliances and automobiles. Many are also worried that Chinese-owned apps like TikTok and WeChat might hand over Americans’ data to Beijing under Chinese laws.This month, the Biden administration issued restrictions that stop Americans from working with Chinese chip companies. Last month, Mr. Biden signed an executive order directing CFIUS to closely scrutinize whether corporate deals involving foreign companies, including from China, would expose the personal data of Americans or involve crucial emerging technologies.The guidelines issued on Thursday do not name any specific foreign country.Paul Rosen, the assistant secretary for investment security at the Treasury Department, which oversees CFIUS, said in a statement that most foreign companies abided by their agreements on national security. But, he said, “those who fail to comply with CFIUS mitigation agreements or other legal obligations will be held accountable.”The committee has been busy in recent years, reviewing hundreds of corporate deal filings in 2021, according to the reports it sends to Congress. In some of those cases, the committee agreed to approve a deal only if the foreign company agreed to carry out measures designed to reduce its concerns.Mr. Rosen said in his statement that the guidelines sent a “clear message” that it was “not optional” for companies to follow their agreements with the government.Under federal law, the government can fine companies that violate their agreements with the committee. The fines can be significant, reaching as high as the total value of the corporate deal in question.The guidelines also publicly explain how companies can challenge a penalty from the government, and they shed more light on how the committee monitors for violations. According to the memo, the government learns of possible violations from “across the U.S. government, publicly available information, third-party service providers (e.g., auditors and monitors), tips” and participants in the deal itself. More

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    F.T.C. Chair Lina Khan Upends Antitrust Standards by Suing Meta

    Lina Khan may set off a shift in how Washington regulates competition by filing cases in tech areas before they mature. She faces an uphill climb.WASHINGTON — Early in her tenure as chair of the Federal Trade Commission, Lina Khan declared that she would rein in the power of the largest technology companies in a dramatically new way.“We’re trying to be forward looking, anticipating problems and taking fast action,’’ Ms. Khan said in an interview last month. She promised to focus on “next-generation technologies,” and not just on areas where tech behemoths were already well established.This week, Ms. Khan took her first step toward stopping the tech monopolies of the future when she sued to block a small acquisition by Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, of the virtual-reality fitness start-up Within. The deal was significant for Meta’s development of the so-called metaverse, which is a nascent technology and far from mainstream.In doing so, Ms. Khan upended decades of antitrust standards, potentially setting off a wholesale shift in the way Washington enforces competition across corporate America. At the heart of the F.T.C.’s lawsuit is the idea that regulators can apply antitrust law without waiting for a market to mature to the point where it is clear which companies hold the most power. The F.T.C. said such early action was justified because Meta’s deal would probably eliminate competition in the young virtual-reality market.Since the late 1970s, most federal challenges to mergers have been in large, well-established markets and aim to prevent already clear monopolies. Regulators have mostly rubber-stamped the purchases of start-ups by tech giants, such as Google’s 2006 deal to buy YouTube and Facebook’s 2012 acquisition of Instagram, because those markets were still emerging.As a result, Ms. Khan faces an uphill climb. Regulators have been reluctant to try to stop corporate mergers by relying on the theory that competition and consumers will be harmed in the future. The federal government lost at least two cases that used this strategy in the past decade, including an attempt to block a $1.9 billion merger in 2015 among X-ray sterilization providers that the F.T.C. had predicted would harm future competition in regional markets.The F.T.C.’s lawsuit against Meta in the budding virtual-reality market is a “deliberately experimental case that seeks to extend the boundaries of merger enforcement,” said William Kovacic, a former chair of the agency. “Such cases are certainly harder to win.”The F.T.C.’s action immediately caused a ruckus within antitrust circles and across the tech industry. Silicon Valley tech executives said that moving to block a deal in an embryonic area of technology might stifle innovation and spook technologists from taking bold leaps in new areas.“Regulators predicting future markets is a very, very dangerous precedent and position,” said Aaron Levie, the chief executive of the cloud storage company Box. He warned that venture capitalists and entrepreneurs would become wary of going into new markets if regulators cut off the ability of companies like Meta to buy start-ups.Adam Kovacevich, the president of the trade group Chamber of Progress, which represents Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, also said the lawsuit would have a chilling effect on innovation.Read More on Facebook and MetaA New Name: In 2021, Mark Zuckerberg announced that Facebook would change its name to Meta, as part of a wider strategy shift toward the so-called metaverse that aims at introducing people to shared virtual worlds.Morphing Into Meta: Mr. Zuckerberg is setting a relentless pace as he leads the company into the next phase. But the pivot  is causing internal disruption and uncertainty.Zuckerberg’s No. 2: In June, Sheryl Sandberg, the company’s chief financing officer announced she would step down from Meta, depriving Mr. Zuckerberg of his top deputy.Tough Times Ahead: After years of financial strength, the company is now grappling with upheaval in the global economy, a blow to its advertising business and a Federal Trade Commission lawsuit.“This is such an extreme and unfounded reaction to a small deal that many tech industry leaders are already worrying about what an F.T.C. win would mean for start-ups,” he said.For Ms. Khan, winning the lawsuit may be less of a priority than showing it’s possible to file against a tech deal while it is still early. She has said regulators were too cautious in the past about intervening in mergers for fear of harming innovation, allowing a wave of deals between tech giants and start-ups that eventually cemented their dominance.“What we can see is that inaction after inaction after inaction can have severe costs,” she said in an interview with The New York Times and CNBC in January. “And that’s what we’re really trying to reverse.”Ms. Khan declined requests for an interview for this article, and the F.T.C. declined to comment on Thursday.Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, testifying on Capitol Hill in 2019. He has bet the company on the metaverse, a technology frontier.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesMeta said the F.T.C. was applying antitrust law incorrectly. The lawsuit focuses on how the merger with Within would remove competition, but Meta said the agency was ignoring the large number of companies that also had health and fitness apps.“The F.T.C. has no answer to the most basic question — how could Meta’s acquisition of a single fitness app in a dynamic space with many existing and future players possibly harm competition?” Nikhil Shanbhag, Meta’s vice president and associate general counsel, wrote in a blog post.The company added that it hadn’t decided on whether to challenge the lawsuit, which was filed on Wednesday in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.The F.T.C. accused Meta of building a virtual reality “empire,” beginning in 2014 with its purchase of Oculus, the maker of the Quest virtual-reality headset. Since then, Meta has acquired around 10 virtual-reality app makers, such as the maker of a Viking combat game, Asgard’s Wrath, and several first-person shooter and sports games.By buying Within and its Supernatural virtual-reality fitness app, the F.T.C. said, Meta wouldn’t create its own app to compete and would scare potential rivals from trying to create alternative apps. That would hobble competition and consumers, the agency said.“This acquisition poses a reasonable probability of eliminating both present and future competition,” according to the lawsuit. “And Meta would be one step closer to its ultimate goal of owning the entire ‘Metaverse.’”Rebecca Haw Allensworth, a professor of antitrust law at Vanderbilt University, said the F.T.C.’s arguments would face tough scrutiny because Meta and Within did not compete with each other and because the virtual-reality market was fledgling.“The way that merger analysis has stood for at least 40 years is about what kind of head-to-head competition does this merger take out of the picture,” she said.The onus will now be on the agency to convince a judge that its predictions about the metaverse and Meta’s purchase would harm competition.“The burden is on the F.T.C. to show, among other things, reasonable probability that Meta would have entered the V.R.-dedicated fitness apps market, absent its acquisition of Within,” said Diana Moss, president of the American Antitrust Institute.If the court dismisses the case, Ms. Khan may have created a precedent that would make it harder to pursue nascent competition cases, antitrust experts cautioned. That could then embolden tech giants to acquire their way into new lines of businesses.“This is a precedential system which goes both ways — if you win or lose — and sends a signal to the market,” Ms. Allensworth said.The F.T.C. is reviewing other tech deals, including Microsoft’s $70 billion acquisition of the gaming company Activision and Amazon’s $3.9 billion merger with One Medical, a national chain of primary care clinics. In addition, the agency has been investigating Amazon on claims of monopoly abuses in its marketplace of third-party sellers.Ms. Khan appears to be prepared for long legal battles with the tech giants even if the cases do not end up going the F.T.C.’s way.In her earlier interview with The Times and CNBC, she said, “Even if it’s not a slam-dunk case, even if there is a risk you might lose, there can be enormous benefits from taking that risk.” More

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    Employer Practices Limit Workers’ Choices and Wages, U.S. Study Argues

    A Biden administration report says collusion and other constraints on competition hold down pay and prospects in the labor market.The recent narrative is that there is a tight labor market that gives workers leverage. But a new report from the Biden administration argues that the deck is still stacked against workers, reducing their ability to move from one employer to another and hurting their pay.The report, released Monday by the Treasury Department, contends that employers often face little competition for their workers, allowing them to pay substantially less than they would otherwise.“There is a recognition that the idea of a competitive labor market is a fiction,” said Ben Harris, assistant Treasury secretary in the office of economic policy, which prepared the report. “This is a sea change in economics.”The report follows up on a promise made by President Biden last summer when he issued an executive order directing his administration to address excessive concentration in the market for work.Drawing from recent economic research, the report concludes that lack of competition in the job market costs workers, on average, 15 to 25 percent of what they might otherwise make. And it emphasizes that the administration will deploy the tools at its disposal to restore competition in the market for work.“This is the administration declaring where it is on the enforcement of antitrust in labor markets,” Tim Wu, a special assistant to the president for technology and competition policy on the National Economic Council, said in an interview in which he laid out the report’s findings. “It is sending a strong signal about the direction in which antitrust enforcement and policy is going.”Across the economy, wage gains generally come about when a worker changes jobs or has a credible offer from outside that will encourage the current employer to provide an increase, argues Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan who was on President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.The State of Jobs in the United StatesEmployment growth accelerated in February, as falling coronavirus cases brought customers back to businesses and workers back to the office.February Jobs Report: U.S. employers added 678,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent ​​in the second month of 2022.Wages and Prices: A labor shortage is helping to push up workers’ pay. With inflation running hot, that could be a problem for the Federal Reserve.Service Workers:  Even as employers scramble to fill vacancies, service workers are seeing few gains. Part-time work is partly to blame.Unionization Efforts: The pandemic has fueled enthusiasm for organized labor. But the pushback has been brutal, especially in the private sector.New to the Work Force: Graduating college seniors will start their career without the memory of prepandemic work life. Here is what they expect.“Companies are well aware of this,” she said in an interview, so they rally around a simple solution: “If we just stop competing, it will be better for everybody.”The Treasury report lays out the many ways in which employers do this. There are noncompete agreements that bar workers from moving to a competitor, and nondisclosure agreements that keep them from sharing information about wages and working conditions — critical information for workers to understand their options. Some companies make no-poaching deals.“There is a long list of insidious efforts to take power out of the hands of workers and seize it for employers’ gain,” said Seth Harris, deputy director at the National Economic Council and deputy assistant to the president for labor and the economy.This is happening against a backdrop of broad economic changes that are hemming in the options of many workers, especially at the bottom end of the job market.The outsourcing of work to contractors — think of the janitors, cafeteria workers and security guards employed by enormous specialist companies, not by the companies they clean, feed and protect — reduces the options for low-wage workers, the report argues.The mergers and acquisitions that have consolidated hospitals, nursing homes, food processing companies and other industries have also reduced competition for workers, the study says, curtailing their ability to seek better jobs.The report notes, for instance, that mergers trimmed the number of hospitals in the United States to 6,093 in 2021, from 7,156 in 1975. It cites research into how some of these mergers have depressed the wage growth for nurses, pharmacy employees and other health workers.The Treasury’s document is drawn from a body of research that has been growing since the 1990s, when a seminal paper by David Card and Alan B. Krueger found that raising the minimum wage did not necessarily reduce employment and could even produce more jobs.The conclusion by Mr. Card and Mr. Krueger, which economists would consider impossible in a competitive labor market in which rising labor costs would reduce employer demand, started the discipline down a path to investigate the extent to which employers competed for workers. If a few employers had the power to hold wages below the competitive equilibrium, raising the wage floor might draw more workers in.Lack of competition, the Biden administration argues, goes a long way to explain why pay for a large share of the American work force is barely higher, after accounting for inflation, than it was a half-century ago. “The fact that workers are getting less than they used to is a longstanding problem,” Ms. Stevenson, who was not involved in the Treasury report, noted.Anticompetitive practices thrive when there are fewer competitors. If workers have many potential employers, they might still agree to sign a noncompete clause, but they could demand a pay increase to compensate.Even if there is no conclusive evidence that the labor market is less competitive than it used to be, the report says, researchers have concluded that there is, in fact, very little competition.Suresh Naidu, a professor of economics at Columbia University, argues, moreover, that institutions like the minimum wage and unions, which limited employers from fully exercising their market power, have weakened substantially over time. “The previously existing checks have fallen away,” Mr. Naidu said.Unions are virtually irrelevant across much of the labor market. Only 6 percent of workers in the private sector belong to one. The federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour is so low that it matters little even for many low-wage workers. The Treasury report argues that an uncompetitive labor market is reducing the share of the nation’s income that goes to workers while increasing the slice that accrues to the owners of capital. Moreover, employers facing little competition for workers, it argues, are more likely to offer few benefits and impose dismal working conditions: unpredictable just-in-time schedules, intrusive on-the-job monitoring, poor safety, no breaks.The damage runs deeper, the report says, arguing that uncompetitive labor markets reduce overall employment. Productivity also suffers when workers have a hard time moving to new jobs that could offer a better fit for their skills. Noncompete clauses discourage business formation when they limit entrepreneurs’ ability to find workers for their ventures.Addressing the issues that the report singles out is likely to be an uphill task. The administration’s push to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 has been unsuccessful. In Congress, bills that would ease the path for workers to join a union face long odds. Going after noncompete clauses, no-poaching deals and other forms of anticompetitive behavior would be an easier task.Last year, the Justice Department’s antitrust division brought several cases challenging no-poaching and wage-setting agreements. In January, four managers of home health care agencies in Maine were indicted on federal charges of conspiring to suppress the wages and restrict the job mobility of essential workers during the pandemic.Still, deploying antitrust enforcement in the job market is somewhat new. It has been used mostly to ward off anticompetitive behavior that raises prices for consumers in product and service markets. Persuading courts to, say, prevent a merger because of its impact on wages might be tougher.A note by the law firm White & Case, for instance, complained that the move to block Penguin Random House’s attempt to buy Simon & Schuster on the grounds that it would reduce royalties to authors is “emblematic of the Biden administration’s and the new populist antitrust movement’s push to direct the purpose of antitrust away from consumer welfare price effects and towards other social harms.” More

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    Mexico Is Buying a Texas Oil Refinery in a Quest for Energy Independence

    President López Obrador wants to halt most oil exports and imports of gasoline and other fuels. Critics say he is reneging on Mexico’s climate change commitments.DEER PARK, Texas — Two giant murals, on storage tanks at an oil refinery here, depict the rebels led by Sam Houston who secured Texas’ independence from Mexico in the 1830s. This week those murals will become the property of the Mexican national oil company, which is acquiring full control of the refinery.The refinery purchase is part of President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s own bid for an independence of sorts. In an effort to achieve energy self-sufficiency, the president of Mexico is investing heavily in the state-owned oil company, placing a renewed emphasis on petroleum production and retreating from renewable energy even as some oil giants like BP and Royal Dutch Shell are investing more in that sector.Mr. López Obrador aims to eliminate most Mexican oil exports over the next two years so the country can process more of it domestically. He wants to replace the gasoline and diesel supplies the country currently buys from other refineries in the United States with fuel produced domestically or by the refinery in Deer Park, which would be made from crude oil it imports from Mexico. The shift would be an ambitious leap for Petroleos Mexicanos, the company commonly known as Pemex. The company’s oil production, comparable to Chevron’s in recent years, has been falling for more than a decade, and it shoulders more than $100 billion in debt, the largest of any oil company in the world.The decision to pay $596 million for a controlling interest in the Deer Park refinery, which sits on the Houston ship channel and would be the only major Pemex operation outside Mexico, is central to fulfilling Mr. López Obrador’s plans to rehabilitate the long-ailing oil sector and establishing eight productive refineries for Mexican use. Mexico also agreed to pay off $1.2 billion in debts that Pemex and Shell jointly owe as co-owners of the refinery, which is profitable.“It’s something historic,” Mr. López Obrador said last month. In a separate news conference last year, he said, “The most important thing is that in 2023 we will be self-sufficient in gasoline and diesel and there will be no increase in fuel prices.”While Mr. Lopez Obrador’s policies diverge from the rising global concern over climate change, they reflect a lasting temptation for leaders and lawmakers worldwide: replacing imported energy sources with domestically produced fuels. Further, the generally well-paying jobs the oil and other fossil fuel industries provide are politically popular across Latin America, Africa as well as industrialized countries like the United States.In the 1930s, the Mexican government took over Royal Dutch Shell’s operations south of the border as it nationalized the entire oil industry then dominated by foreigners. Now Mr. López Obrador is poised to go one step further, taking complete control of a big Shell oil refinery.The takeover is all the more pointed because it is happening in an industrial suburb that calls itself “the birthplace of Texas,” where rebels marched to the San Jacinto battlefield to defeat the Mexican Army — the event commemorated on the refinery murals. The battlefield is a five-mile drive from the refinery.It is hard to overestimate the connection between oil and politics in Mexico, where the day petroleum was nationalized, March 18, is a national holiday. Oil provides the Mexican government with a third of its revenues, and Pemex is one of the nation’s biggest employers, with about 120,000 workers. Mr. López Obrador hails from the oil-producing state of Tabasco, and the powerful Pemex labor union is a crucial part of his political base. He ran on a platform of rebuilding the company, and has raised its production budget, cut taxes it pays and reversed efforts by his predecessor to restructure its monopoly over oil production in the country.When he took office three years ago, Mr. López Obrador began undoing changes made in 2013 to the country’s Constitution intended to open the oil and gas industry to private and foreign investment. He is also pushing to reverse electricity reforms that his predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto, put in place to increase the use of privately funded wind and solar farms and move away from state-run power plants fueled by oil and coal.Energy experts say Mexico is backtracking on a commitment it made a decade ago under President Felipe Calderón, to generate more than a third of its power from clean energy sources by 2024. Mexico now produces just over a quarter of its power from renewables.“They are going to heavier fuels rather than to lighter fuels,” said David Goldwyn, a top State Department energy official in the Obama administration. “Virtually every foreign company — Ford, Walmart, G.E., everybody who operates there — has their own net-zero target now. If they can’t get access to clean energy, Mexico becomes a liability.”Mr. López Obrador’s government has said it will combat climate change by investing in hydroelectric power and reforestation.Many of the Mexican president’s initiatives are being contested by opposition lawmakers and the business community. But Mr. López Obrador can do a lot on his own. He plans to spend $8 billion on a project to build an oil refinery in Tabasco state, and more than $3 billion more to modernize six refineries.President Andres Manuel López Obrador hails from the oil-producing state of Tabasco, and the powerful Pemex labor union is a crucial part of his political base.Gustavo Graf Maldonado/ReutersThe purchase of the Deer Park refinery is crucial to his plans because the Tabasco complex will not be completed until 2023 or 2024 and will not produce enough gasoline, diesel and other fuels to meet all of Mexico’s needs.Long a partner of Pemex, Shell, which operates the Deer Park refinery, is selling its stake in part to satisfy investors concerned about climate change who want the oil giant to invest more in renewable energy and hydrogen.Under Mexican ownership the refinery will continue its practice of using Mexican crude oil, but it will probably sell more of the gasoline and other fuels it produces to Mexico. In the future, some energy experts said, Pemex could also use the Deer Park refinery to process oil from other countries that also produce the kinds of heavy crude that Mexico does.“I think it’s a good deal and makes sense for Pemex,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service, who noted that Deer Park could perhaps process Venezuelan oil if the United States lifted sanctions against that country.The Mexican policy changes would have only a modest and temporary impact on American refineries, which can replace Mexican oil with crude from Colombia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Canada. Refiners could lose as much as a half-million barrels of transportation fuel sales a day to Mexico, but energy experts say refiners would be able to find other markets.Guy Hackwell, the general manager of the Deer Park complex, said, “Best practices will remain in place.” He said the “vast majority of the work force will report to the same job the day after the deal closes.”As for the murals, a Pemex spokeswoman, Jimena Alvarado, said, “We would never remove a historical mural.”Residents in Deer Park, in the heart of the Gulf of Mexico petrochemical complex, say they feel assured that locals will run the plant and Shell will continue to own an adjoining chemical plant. “The phone numbers will remain the same for who we contact in the event of an emergency and we will still have the same people and relationships, so I feel good about that,” Deer Park’s city manager, Jay Stokes, said.But some energy experts said Mr. López Obrador’s approach to energy, including the refinery purchase, would waste precious government resources that could be better used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. There are also doubts that Mexico can build enough refining capacity to fulfill the president’s objectives.Shell, which operates the Deer Park refinery, is selling its stake in part to satisfy investors concerned about climate change who want the oil giant to invest more in renewable energy and hydrogen.Brandon Thibodeaux for The New York TimesJorge Piñon, a former president of Amoco Oil de Mexico, said Mexico most likely would not be able to immediately profit from slashing exports of crude and processing its own fuels since the refinery business typically has low profit margins, especially in Latin America.He said the Mexican refineries could not match American refineries in handling Mexico’s high-sulfur heavy crude. Mexican fuels made from heavy oil caused severe air pollution problems in many cities before the country began importing cleaner-burning American gasoline and diesel over the last 20 years.By exporting less oil, Mexico would also almost certainly use more of it for domestic power generation, potentially pushing out solar and wind generation and producing more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.“His nationalistic decisions will have a negative impact on climate change,” Mr. Piñon said. “He is marching back to the 1930s.”Mr. López Obrador is unapologetic. “Oil is the best business in the world,” he said at a news conference last May. More

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    Silicon Valley’s Best Pandemic Ever

    As the world reeled, tech titans supplied the tools that made life and work possible. Now the companies are awash in money — and questions about what it means to win amid so much loss.SAN FRANCISCO — In April 2020, with 2,000 Americans dying every day of Covid-19, Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s chief executive and the world’s richest man, announced he was focusing on people rather than profits. Amazon would spend about $4 billion in the next few months “providing for customers and protecting employees,” he said, wiping out the profit the retailer would have made without the virus.It was a typically bold Amazon announcement, a shrewd public relations move to sacrifice financial gain at a moment of misery and fear. Mr. Bezos said this was “the hardest time we’ve ever faced” and suggested the new approach would extend indefinitely. “If you’re a shareowner in Amazon,” he advised, “you may want to take a seat.”At the end of July 2020, Amazon announced quarterly results. Rather than earning zero, as Mr. Bezos had predicted, it notched an operating profit of $5.8 billion — a record for the company.The months since have established new records. Amazon’s margins, which measure the profit on every dollar of sales, are the highest in the history of the company, which is based in Seattle.After stepping aside as chief executive early this month, Mr. Bezos flew to suborbital space for 10 minutes this week. Upon returning, he expressed gratitude to those who had fulfilled this lifelong dream. “I want to thank every Amazon employee and every Amazon customer, ’cause you guys paid for all this,” he said.Mr. Bezos, who was not available for comment for this article, was the only chief executive of a tech company to enter zero gravity in his own spaceship in the past year. But Amazon’s pandemic triumph was echoed all over the world of technology companies.Even as 609,000 Americans have died and the Delta variant surges, as corporate bankruptcies hit a peak for the decade, as restaurants, airlines, gyms, conferences, museums, department stores, hotels, movie theaters and amusement parks shut down and as millions of workers found themselves unemployed, the tech industry flourished.The combined stock market valuation of Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook increased by about 70 percent to more than $10 trillion. That is roughly the size of the entire U.S. stock market in 2002. Apple alone has enough cash in its coffers to give $600 to every person in the United States. And in the next week, the big tech companies are expected to report earnings that will eclipse all previous windfalls.Silicon Valley, still the world headquarters for tech start-ups, has never seen so much loot. More Valley companies went public in 2020 than in 2019, and they raised twice as much money when they did. Forbes calculates there are now 365 billionaires whose fortunes derive from tech, up from 241 before the virus.Silicon Valley made the tools that allowed Americans, and the American economy, to survive the pandemic. People got their jigsaw puzzles, air purifiers and digital thermometers delivered by Amazon instead of picking them up two blocks or two miles away. The consumer economy swerved from local to national.Tech is triumphant in a way that even its most evangelical leaders couldn’t have predicted. No single industry has ever had such power over American life, dominating how we communicate, shop, learn about the world and seek distraction and joy.What will Silicon Valley do with this power? Who if anyone might restrain tech, and how much support will they have? Wealth and the ability to command and control tend to produce hubris more than modesty. As algorithms and artificial intelligence rearrange people into marketing groups, it’s uncertain — to put it politely — how aware the tech industry is of the potential for abuse, especially when it generates profits.With the House Judiciary Committee’s recent vote to advance a series of bills that aim to reduce the power of the most dominant tech companies, and with President Biden appointing regulators who have sharp views of Big Tech, these issues are finally set for a wider debate.It has been a tumultuous 18 months, and even the tech companies are having trouble absorbing what happened.PayPal, the digital payments company, had 325 million active accounts before the pandemic. It reported 392 million in the first quarter. “The winds were blowing in our direction, but we had to set the sails,” said Dan Schulman, the chief executive.The wind was so strong it blew tech into another universe of wealth and influence.The Pandemic’s TailwindIn March 2020, Redfin shut down its 78 offices around the country. Its stock lost two-thirds of its value. Shortly after, demand for real estate started rising again. Jordan Strauss/Associated PressOn March 13, 2020, Glenn Kelman, the chief executive of the online real estate broker Redfin, was biking to work when he got a call from Henry Ellenbogen, a longtime investor in Redfin who had started his own fund.At Harvard, Mr. Ellenbogen majored in the history of technology. One big thing he learned, he has said, was that technology is developed well in advance of people’s ability and willingness to use it.“Tell me something,” Mr. Ellenbogen asked Mr. Kelman, according to an account the chief executive posted on Redfin’s website. “When people start touring homes via an iPhone, won’t a lot of them decide, even after this whole pandemic ends, that this is just a better way to see houses? And if this whole process of buying and selling homes mostly goes virtual, how will other brokerages compete with you?”Mr. Kelman, a little preoccupied by how Seattle’s normally bustling streets were eerily empty, said he didn’t know.“I do,” Mr. Ellenbogen said. “The world is changing in your favor.”This was not a general view then, and it certainly was not what Mr. Kelman was experiencing. The first confirmed coronavirus death in the United States was a nursing home resident in a Seattle suburb on Feb. 29. Within hours, home sellers decided that maybe they did not want strangers breathing in their living room and bedrooms. Buyers began to pull out as well.For Redfin, that was the beginning of a crisis. Within a few days, it shut down its 78 offices around the country. Its stock plunged, losing two-thirds of its value.“The magnitude of the decline was increasing every day,” Mr. Kelman said. He agreed to sell Mr. Ellenbogen more stock for $110 million, thinking Redfin might need cash to make it through a long drought. In early April, Mr. Kelman furloughed 41 percent of the company’s agents, who were salaried employees. More than 1,000 people were affected.By that point, real estate was already turning around. Instead of killing demand for housing, the pandemic fueled it.“The economy split in two on about April 7, 2020,” Mr. Kelman said. “One part of the economy suffered greatly, but another did just fine — the people who said, ‘If the world is going to end in the virus-filled streets of New York, I’m going to Connecticut or Vermont or Maine and I need a house there.’ What we thought was a headwind was a tailwind.”The pandemic as a whole, it became clear, was a tailwind for tech in very basic ways.When tens of millions of people were urged and sometimes ordered to stay put in their homes, naturally companies whose very existence involves facilitating virtual lives benefited. The rise of the teleconferencing company Zoom as both a verb and stock market winner was perhaps the easiest call of the year.“Call it half luck — being in the right place at the right time — and half strategic tactics by companies recognizing this was going to be a once in a lifetime opportunity,” said Dan Ives, a managing director at Wedbush Securities. “What for most industries were hurricane-like headwinds was a pot of gold for tech.”Even companies that might have seemed vulnerable to stay-at-home mandates did well. Airbnb is a company whose whole existence was about going to stay in strangers’ homes. The pandemic should have killed the buzz for its long-awaited public offering in December. But its stock price doubled on the first day of trading, giving the company a value of $100 billion.Tech companies like Redfin that reacted defensively in March risked being left out of the recovery in April. The 2020 housing market, pushed by pandemic demand and negligible interest rates, turned out to be the best since 2006.Those furloughed at Redfin were soon hired back. Mr. Ellenbogen’s deal proved extremely lucrative. But an estimated 10 million people are behind on the rent even as eviction moratoriums start to expire.Mr. Kelman, more introspective than most tech executives, feels a little queasy.“Tech used to be delivering these wonders to the world, and all of us in the industry felt the human uplift of general progress,” he said. “With the pandemic, fortunes have really diverged and at least some people in tech are really uncomfortable about that.”Pushing Back“We went from being pirates to being the Navy,” said Marc Andreessen. “People may love pirates when they’re young and small and scrappy, but nobody likes a Navy that acts like a pirate.”Steve Jennings/Getty ImagesThe biggest, and perhaps the only, threat to tech now is from government.Tech antitrust reformers say the government response to the pandemic, including the national eviction moratorium, repudiated decades of entrenched belief in a hands-off economic approach. Now, the activists say, they will have their moment.“When the government moved in a robust way to keep everybody afloat, free-market ideologies died,” said Stacy Mitchell, co-director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, a research and advocacy organization that fights corporate control. “People now appreciate that the government can either make choices that centralize power and wealth or it can structure markets and industries in way that deliver benefits more broadly.”There are signs of pushback against tech that would have been unimaginable a few years ago, beyond the House bills. Ohio sued Google, saying it should be regulated like a public utility. The Teamsters, one of the biggest labor unions, passed a resolution to supply “all resources necessary” to help organize workers at Amazon. Lina Khan, who made her reputation as a critic of Amazon, was appointed Federal Trade Commission chair. On Tuesday, the White House said it would nominate Jonathan Kanter, a tech critic, to be the Justice Department’s top antitrust official.But there are signs of movement in the other direction, too. The F.T.C. and a coalition of state attorneys general saw their antitrust lawsuits against Facebook dismissed by a Washington judge last month. The F.T.C. can refile an improved suit by the end of this month.Any measures restricting tech will ultimately need public sentiment behind them to succeed. Even some of tech’s biggest supporters see the potential for worry here.“We went from being pirates to being the Navy,” Marc Andreessen, a central figure in Silicon Valley for a quarter-century, told the Substack writer Noah Smith in a recent interview. “People may love pirates when they’re young and small and scrappy, but nobody likes a Navy that acts like a pirate. And today’s technology industry can come across a lot like a Navy that acts like a pirate.”Beyond the threat of misuse of tech lurks an even darker possibility: a misplaced confidence in the ability of one loosely regulated sector to run so much of the world.Weeks before the pandemic, the RAND Corporation published a study on systemic risk and how a problem with one company can imperil others in its network. Systemic risk was a big issue in the 2008 financial collapse, when the government propped up some companies because their downfall might imperil the whole system. They were too big to fail.The research group investigated whether tech companies had supplanted financial firms as a key node in the economy, and if the economy was growing too dependent on them. Amazon, whose AWS cloud division has millions of customers, was highlighted.In December, RAND’s point was made when SolarWinds, which makes software that allows other companies to manage their networks, was revealed to have been infiltrated by Russian hackers. Since SolarWinds had so many clients, including Fortune 500 companies and federal agencies, the breach became one of the worst on record.Tech’s dominance means the risks are more concentrated than ever. There were problems at the security firm Cloudflare in July 2020, at Amazon in November, at the cloud provider Fastly last month and at the content distribution network Akamai on Thursday, all of which took down other sites at least briefly.These outages caused little concern.That’s typical of systemic issues, said Jonathan Welburn, a lead author on the RAND study. “Before 2008, when house prices kept rising and rising, no one wanted to hear how they were being artificially propped up and why that could be a problem,” he said.Pushing Forward“When people are remote, I worry about what their career trajectory is going to be,” IBM’s chief executive, Arvind Krishna, recently told the BBC.Brian Ach/Getty ImagesThe pandemic gave tech companies the power and the cash to make aggressive bets on their individual destinies. Buying another company was one way to do this. Global deal values in tech soared 47.3 percent in 2020 from a year ago.Zillow, a digital real estate company in Seattle, spent $500 million in February to buy ShowingTime, a scheduling platform for home showings. A few weeks later, Zillow said it would hire 2,000 people, increasing its work force by 40 percent.But its biggest bet will take longer to play out. Before the pandemic, Zillow discouraged working from home, like most companies. Then last summer, it said 90 percent of its employees could work remotely forever if they chose.At the time, Zillow was in the vanguard of a movement. Now the idea of the non-virtual office is re-exerting its pull with managers.Amazon says its plan “is to return to an office-centric culture as our baseline.” Google asserted the same thing, although it backed off after workers rebelled. IBM says 80 percent of its employees will be in the office at least three days a week.“When people are remote, I worry about what their career trajectory is going to be,” IBM’s chief executive, Arvind Krishna, told the BBC.Zillow is something of an outlier. Even after a year of working from home, 59 percent of its employees told the company they planned to go into the office once a month or less.This may be the pandemic’s ultimate tailwind: not just the future coming much faster to your company, but actively pushing your company faster into the future. It is a risk that might be easier to undertake if your market value has suddenly tripled the way Zillow’s did.If Zillow is wrong about the future and employees are less bound to an office they visit only virtually, the company will stumble. If it is right, it will increase its workers’ loyalty and outdistance earthbound competitors.“The pandemic forced change on all of us,” said Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow’s chief operating officer. “We didn’t wish for it but now we’re learning from it.”More than a third of Zillow employees moved in the year that began in March 2020. Many moves were from one part of Seattle’s metro area to another, indicating a general reluctance not to get so far away from the office you could not drive there. But other employees dispersed to New Mexico, Mississippi and Alabama. Nine moved to Hawaii.“They liked their job but wanted to go somewhere else. That used to be a problem. Now it’s not,” said Viet Shelton, a Zillow spokesman who, as it happens, just moved to Manhattan from Seattle because he always wanted to live in New York.Now that employees no longer have to live where Zillow has an office, interest has swelled. More than 55,000 applied to work at Zillow in the first quarter, up 51 percent from the prepandemic level and about 10 applicants for every person employed there. Zillow has hired more recruiters to deal with the onslaught.Over at Redfin, the stock is up 400 percent from its pandemic bottom. Redfin paid $608 million in February to acquire a publisher of rental listings, its biggest deal ever. But while the company seems so rich, so successful, so lucky from the outside, it feels different within. Managing growth is almost as hard as managing a downturn.“Customers are clamoring for service and we can’t hire fast enough,” said Mr. Kelman. “Redfin never had a moment when it was absolutely and totally killing it, but I always imagined when we did that it would be more fun than this.” More