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White House Faces Risk of Economic Fallout From Iran Strike

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President Trump, aware of how high gas prices could affect his popularity, demanded on social media that the U.S. “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.”President Trump on Monday began to confront the potential economic blowback from his military strikes on Iran, which threatened to send oil and gas prices soaring at a moment when U.S. consumers are already facing significant financial strains.The mere prospect of rising energy costs appeared to spook even Mr. Trump, who took to social media to push for more domestic drilling while demanding that companies “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN”; otherwise, they would be “PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”“I’M WATCHING!” the president added.By midday Monday, global oil markets appeared relatively muted, two days after Mr. Trump dispatched U.S. bombers on a mission to disable three Iranian nuclear sites. Prices rose over the weekend before ultimately settling, as Washington — and the rest of the world — braced for the possibility that Tehran may still retaliate.In one worst-case scenario, Iranian leaders could look to shutter or otherwise impede access to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the critical entrance point to the Persian Gulf. The world ships substantial amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas through the passage, so any interruption to commerce could cause energy prices to surge globally.A spike in energy costs could prove especially difficult for American consumers and businesses this summer, given that it could arrive at about the same time that Mr. Trump plans to revive his expansive, steep tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. Many economists expect those levies to push up prices after years of high inflation.In April, the president announced, then suspended, those sky-high duties, seeking to quell a global market meltdown over his disruptive and legally contested campaign to remake global trade. But Mr. Trump has not wavered in his plan to implement the tariffs on July 9, and many economists expect companies — which pay the duties when they source foreign products — to pass the added costs down to their customers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    How Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Will Affect Companies

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    Home builders, car manufacturers and can makers are among those that will see higher prices for materials. Those companies could charge customers more.President Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent less than three months after imposing a 25 percent tariff on them. He said the move, made Wednesday, would help support U.S. steel companies, but many domestic businesses say that the latest increase would hurt them and raise prices for all Americans.U.S. home builders, car manufacturers, oil producers and can makers will be among the most affected. Many companies in those and other industries will likely pass on cost increases to their customers.“It means higher costs for consumers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a research organization in Washington that tends to favor lower trade barriers.These are some of the industries that could feel the biggest effects from Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs.American Steel MakersIndustry groups representing domestic steel producers praised the steeper levies, which they said could spur investment and create jobs in the United States.Kevin Dempsey, the president and chief executive at the American Iron and Steel Institute, said the latest increase would help U.S. steel producers compete with China and other countries that have flooded the global market with metal. Mr. Dempsey said the industry had worried that the 25 percent tariff on steel imports alone was not sufficient.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    Oil Prices Are Falling. Here’s Where That Could Spell Trouble.

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    For countries that depend heavily on oil revenue, dropping prices are worrisome.Oil producing countries are bracing for a bumpy ride this year, with a precipitous drop in prices to the lowest levels in four years seen as the initial, alarming sign of looming turmoil.A price drop benefits any country seeking to cut its fuel bill. But in oil producing nations, lower prices can feed economic troubles, and sometimes political unrest, as governments slash spending.Analysts who had already been predicting lower oil prices because of softening demand amid increased global production said the possibility of a tariff trade war and the overall climate of uncertainty could well deepen producers’ woes.“The steep price dive and overall volatility is sending a very strong signal that the global economy is going to be rattled this year and that will translate into a lower demand for oil,” said Gregory Brew, a specialist on the geopolitics of oil and gas with the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization.Wealthy producers may be able to cushion the blowEarlier this year, the price for benchmark crude held steady around $73 a barrel, high enough to sustain the budgets of most producing nations. But some countries, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, base ambitious development plans on a price of at least $90 a barrel, analysts say.A huge, futuristic city project in Saudi Arabia is being financed with oil revenue.Planet Labs Pbc/Planet Labs PBC, via Associated PressWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares119 Views

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    Oil Prices Tumble Further as Trump’s Tariffs Weigh on Economic Outlook

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    U.S. oil prices fell sharply, briefly dipping below $60 a barrel on Sunday — their lowest level in almost four years — as the economic fallout from President Trump’s latest round of tariffs reverberated around the world.The price of crude oil is down more than 15 percent since last Wednesday, just before Mr. Trump revealed his plans to impose stiff new tariffs on imports from most countries. That prices have fallen so far so quickly reflects deepening concern that high tariffs could slow economic growth and perhaps even cause recessions in the United States and the countries it trades with.The cost of U.S. benchmark crude continued to fall on Monday, down more than 2 percent. Cheaper oil is generally good for consumers and businesses that use gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In fact, Mr. Trump and his aides have pushed for lower energy prices to curb inflation.But if prices remain around these levels or fall further, U.S. oil and gas companies are likely to slow drilling, cut spending and lay off workers. That would be especially painful to oil-rich states like Texas and New Mexico.Another big reason that oil prices have weakened is that the OPEC cartel and its allies announced last week that they would accelerate plans to increase production. That will increase supply of oil at a time when many analysts expect demand to weaken.U.S. energy companies are also getting squeezed by higher costs for essential materials like steel tubing, which is subject to a 25 percent tariff Mr. Trump announced in February.Smaller oil companies — a key constituency for Mr. Trump — are likely to be among the first to slow down, as they tend to be more nimble and have fewer financial resources. Natural gas prices have been more resilient, providing some cushion for producers.Last week, the share price of an exchange-traded fund composed of U.S. oil and gas stocks fell by 20 percent in the two days after Mr. Trump’s tariff announcement. More

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    Slumping Oil Prices Reflect Intensifying Economic Worries

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    Oil prices continued to fall on Friday, extending Thursday’s sharp drop. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at its lowest level in more than three years, below $65 a barrel, a fall of almost 8 percent.Fears that President Trump’s tariffs could slash global economic growth — and demand for oil as a result — were weighing on the market, analysts said.China’s announcement on Friday of 34 percent retaliatory tariffs against the United States has further stoked worries that demand for oil and other commodities could be throttled by the trade turmoil.Thursday’s surprise decision by a Saudi Arabia-led group of countries in the OPEC Plus cartel to accelerate planned production increases has added to the downward pressure. Essentially, the market is worried about a bearish mixture of tariffs weakening demand, compounded by growing pressure from oil-producing countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan to add to supplies.In a note to clients, analysts at Morgan Stanley said that in a recession — which is a looming possibility — demand growth for oil “typically falls at least to zero.” More

  • 138 Shares199 Views

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    Trump’s Tariffs Would Reverse Decades of Integration Between U.S. and Mexico

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    Ties between the United States and Mexico have deepened over 30 years of free trade, creating both benefits and irritants.When Dennis Nixon started working at a regional bank in Laredo, Texas, in 1975, there was just a trickle of trade across the border with Mexico. Now, nearly a billion dollars of commerce and more than 15,000 trucks roll over the line every day just a quarter mile from his office, binding the economies of the United States and Mexico together.Laredo is America’s busiest port, and a conduit for car parts, gasoline, avocados and computers. “You cannot pick it apart anymore,” Mr. Nixon said of the U.S. and Mexican economies. Thirty years of economic integration under a free trade deal has created “interdependencies and relationships that you don’t always understand and measure, until something goes wrong,” he said.Now that something is looming: 25 percent tariffs on Mexican products, which President Trump plans to impose on Saturday as he looks to pressure the Mexican government to do more to curb illegal immigration. Mr. Trump is also expected to hit Canada with 25 percent levies and impose a 10 percent tax on Chinese imports.A longtime proponent of tariffs and a critic of free trade deals, Mr. Trump seems unafraid to upend America’s closest economic relationships. He is focusing on strengthening the border against illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl, two areas that he spoke about often during his 2024 campaign.But the president has other beefs with Mexico, including the economic competition it poses for U.S. workers. The president and his supporters believe that imports of cars and steel from Mexico are weakening U.S. manufacturers. And they say the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, needs to be updated — or perhaps, in some minds, scrapped.Many businesses say ties between the countries run deeper than most Americans realize, and policies like tariffs that seek to sever them would be painful. Of all the world’s major economic partners, the United States and Mexico are among the most integrated — linked by business, trade, tourism, familial ties, remittances and culture. It’s a closeness that at times generates discontent and efforts to distance the relationship, but also brings many benefits.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Will Hit Mexico, Canada and China With Tariffs

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    President Trump plans to impose stiff tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on Saturday, a move aimed at pressuring America’s largest trading partners into accepting more migrants and halting the flow of migrants and drugs into the United States.Mr. Trump will put a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese products, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a news briefing Friday.Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, Mr. Trump said the tariffs were punishment for Canada, Mexico and China allowing drugs and migrants to flood into the United States.Mr. Trump’s decision to hit America’s trading partners with tariff could mark the beginning of a disruptive and damaging trade war, one that is far messier than the conflict that defined Mr. Trump’s first term.Back then, Mr. Trump placed tariffs on nearly two-thirds of Chinese imports, resulting in China hitting the U.S. with levies of its own. Mr. Trump also imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, inciting retaliation from the European Union, Mexico and Canada.While the tariffs against allies were viewed as controversial, they were relatively limited in scope. It remains to be seen exactly what products Mr. Trump’s new tariffs apply to, but the president has implied that they would be expansive and cover imports from Canada and Mexico, close allies of the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares169 Views

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    Trump’s Plans to Scrap Climate Policies Has Unnerved Green Energy Investors

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump is expected to roll back many of the rules and subsidies that have attracted billions of dollars from the private sector to renewable energy and electric vehicles.Money is the mother’s milk of politics, but the outcome of elections also determines where it flows — and last month’s was especially crucial for the energy industry.Clean investment — including renewable energy as well as the manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels — has boomed since the passage of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, championed by President Biden. In the third quarter of 2024, it reached a record $71 billion, according to a tracker maintained by the Rhodium Group, an energy-focused research firm, and M.I.T.The big question looming now on Wall Street: Will President-elect Donald J. Trump, who called Mr. Biden’s policies the “green new scam” during the campaign, pull back enough of those subsidies and regulations to meaningfully change the economics of investing in decarbonization?Market reactions right after the election seemed clear. Clean energy stocks dropped sharply, while shares of oil companies bounced, indicating a divergent view of how the two sectors will fare in the coming years.Near the top of Mr. Trump’s agenda next year is extending his 2017 tax cuts. He will most likely need to reduce spending elsewhere to do that. Clean energy tax credits — worth about $350 billion over just the next three years, according to the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation — would be a tempting target. The more those subsidies are pared, the more projects would no longer make financial sense.President Biden has championed the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and other policies designed to address climate change and spur investment in cleaner forms of energy.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Russian Oil Flows Through Western ‘Price Cap’ as Shadow Fleet Grows

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    A report shows how Russia has largely evaded sanctions aimed at limiting its revenue from oil sales.A plan hatched by wealthy Western nations to deprive Russia of oil revenue is largely faltering, a new report found, with the majority of the Kremlin’s seaborne oil exports evading restrictions that were supposed to limit the price of Russian crude.Almost two years since an oil “price cap” was enacted, nearly 70 percent of the Kremlin’s oil is being transported on “shadow tankers” that are evading the restrictions, according to an analysis published by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, a Ukraine-based think tank.Russia’s success at circumventing the sanctions imposed by the Group of 7 nations has allowed it to continue to finance its war against Ukraine. The effectiveness of the price cap has been marred by loose enforcement of the policy. Officials in the United States and Europe have tried to balance their goals of crippling Russia’s economy while keeping oil markets well supplied to prevent price spikes.The challenges underscore the limitations that the world’s advanced economies have been facing as they attempt to intervene in global energy markets to try to hasten an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The Kyiv School of Economics Institute, which has argued for tougher sanctions on Russian oil, noted in its report that Russia’s shadow fleet poses a threat to the world’s oceans because the tankers are often poorly maintained and not properly insured.“There have been several instances of shadow tankers being involved in collisions or coming close to running aground in recent months,” the report said. “Large oil spills have so far been avoided but a major disaster is waiting to happen and cleanup costs would reach billions.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More