Presidential Election of 2024

Latest story

125 Shares18 Views

How Trump’s Tax Cuts and Tariffs Could Turn Into Law

by

Republicans are juggling complex political and tactical questions as they plan their congressional agenda next year.Republicans are starting to sketch out how to translate President-elect Donald J. Trump’s economic agenda into law, putting plans in place to bypass Democrats and approve multiple bills reshaping the nation’s tax and spending policies along party lines.With total control of Washington, Republicans have the rare — and often fleeting — opportunity to leave a lasting mark on federal policy. Some in the party are hoping to tee up big legislation for early next year and capitalize on Mr. Trump’s first 100 days.Much of the early planning revolves around the sweeping tax cuts the party passed and Mr. Trump signed into law in 2017, many of which will expire at the end of next year. Key Republicans are holding meetings about how to maneuver a bill extending the tax cuts through the Senate, while others are consulting economists for ideas to offset their roughly $4 trillion cost.Several questions loom over the Republican effort. They range from how fast the party should move next year to deeper political disagreements over which tax and spending policies to change. The overall cost of the legislation is a central preoccupation at a time of rising deficits. And whatever Republicans put together will most likely become a magnet for other issues the party has prioritized, including immigration.Here’s what to expect.A Difficult ProcessMost legislation needs a supermajority of 60 votes to pass the Senate. But for bills focused on taxes and spending, lawmakers can turn to a process called budget reconciliation that requires only a regular majority of 51 votes in the Senate.Reconciliation is a powerful but cumbersome tool. Its rules prevent lawmakers from passing policy changes unrelated to the budget, and lawmakers are only allowed to use reconciliation a limited number of times per year. Republicans could also raise the debt limit through the process.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

More stories

  • 100 Shares55 Views

    in Economy

    How Trump’s Immigration Plans Could Affect the Economy

    by

    Expelling noncitizens on a mass scale is likely to raise prices on goods and services and lower employment rates for U.S. workers, many economists say.The wave of migrants who arrived during the Biden administration fueled some of the anger that propelled Donald J. Trump back to power. They also offset a labor shortage, putting a damper on inflation.With the next administration vowing to seal the border and carry out the largest deportation program in American history, those economic forces could reverse — depending on the degree to which Mr. Trump can fulfill those promises.Mr. Trump’s newly appointed “border czar,” Tom Homan, has said that the administration would start with the immigrants who have committed crimes. There are not nearly enough of those to amount to removals on a mass scale, however, and Vice President-elect JD Vance has also said that all 11 million undocumented immigrants should prepare to leave. “If you are in this country illegally in six months, pack your bags, because you’re going home,” Mr. Vance said in September.The numbers could rise by another 2.7 million if the new administration revokes several types of temporary humanitarian protection, as the Trump adviser Stephen Miller previewed last year. On top of that, millions of undocumented residents live with U.S.-born children or green card holders who could end up leaving the country as well.There are logistical, legal, diplomatic and — even though Mr. Trump has said there is “no price tag” he wouldn’t direct the government to pay — fiscal obstacles to expelling millions of people who would rather stay. (According to the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group for immigrants, it would cost $315 billion to arrest, detain, and deport all 13.3 million living in the United States illegally or under a revocable temporary status.)That’s why forecasting a precise impact is impossible at this point. But if Mr. Trump accomplishes anything close to what he has pledged, many economists expect higher prices on goods and services and possibly lower employment rates for American workers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares55 Views

    in Economy

    Republicans and Democrats Highly Divided in Economic Outlook Under Trump

    by

    Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared to its highest point since Donald J. Trump left the White House, while declining among Democrats.Donald J. Trump won last week’s election in part by promising to fix an economy many voters believed was broken.Republicans, at least, seem to believe him.Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared nearly 30 percent in the week since Election Day, according to data from Morning Consult, an online survey firm. Republicans, according to the survey, now feel better about the economy than at any time since Mr. Trump lost his bid for re-election four years ago.Democrats, unsurprisingly, have had a very different reaction. Sentiment in that group has dropped 13 percent since Election Day, its lowest level since early 2023. For political independents, relatively little has changed in their attitudes toward the economy in recent days.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    Consumer sentiment by party identification
    Note: Data shown as five-day moving average. Political independents not shown.Source: Morning ConsultBy The New York TimesThe big partisan shifts in Americans’ economic views are not a surprise. There have been similar swings after past presidential elections, although the trend has become more pronounced in recent decades. And voters have said for months that their economic expectations would depend partly on whether their preferred candidate won the White House.“Consumers have been telling us all year long their expectation for the economy is contingent on the outcome of the election,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s long-running survey of consumer sentiment. She expects to see large partisan swings in that survey as well, she said, when data from after the election becomes available this month.Measures of consumer sentiment have been depressed for much of President Biden’s time in office, though indicators such as the unemployment rate and wage growth have indicated a strong economy. In polls and interviews, Americans have cited inflation as one of the main sources of their dissatisfaction with Mr. Biden, even as inflation has cooled.Economic sentiment has begun to improve in recent months, however, perhaps suggesting that more Americans are starting to see improvements in inflation in their daily lives — albeit too late to help Democrats in this month’s elections.“Consumers probably are seeing and to some extent digesting some of the good economic news,” said Deni Koenhemsi, head of economic analysis for Morning Consult.Ms. Koenhemsi noted that consumers’ expectations had improved more rapidly than their assessment of the economy’s current state. That suggests that many are still struggling with high prices but becoming more optimistic about the months ahead.That gradual process isn’t surprising, said Neale Mahoney, a Stanford University economist who worked in Mr. Biden’s administration. In research published last year, Mr. Mahoney and a colleague found that it takes time for sentiment to adjust as inflation cools and people become used to the new, higher price of many goods and services.“Even if measured inflation has decreased, the way people experience inflation, they may still be acclimatizing to the price increases that were most acute in summer of 2022 into 2023,” Mr. Mahoney said.The election, he added, could accelerate that process, at least for Republicans, who might be more inclined to reset their expectations once their preferred candidate is in office. More

  • 100 Shares80 Views

    in Economy

    Why Trump’s Victory Is Fueling a Market Frenzy

    by

    Investors have been comforted by a clear election result and are anticipating tax cuts and deregulation from a second Trump administration.Donald J. Trump’s election victory reverberated through financial markets. And one week later, bets on the economy’s path and on corporate winners or losers — known as the “Trump trade” on Wall Street — are in full swing.Stock prices for perceived winners have snapped higher: Bank valuations have soared, as investors anticipate more lenient regulations. The same is true for many large companies seeking to consolidate through mergers and acquisitions, which have frequently been blocked or discouraged under President Biden.The share price of Tesla, run by Mr. Trump’s adviser and campaign benefactor Elon Musk, has surged by more than 40 percent since the election last week. Cryptocurrencies, which Mr. Trump has pledged to lend more support, popped as well, with Bitcoin hitting record highs.Based on the president-elect’s promises of drastic immigration enforcement, which might increase demand for detention services, the shares of private prison operators also rose sharply.Presumed losers slumped in price, including smaller green energy firms benefiting from Biden-era tax credits. A range of retailers and manufacturers reliant on imported goods have also suffered, because they may be negatively exposed to tariffs that Mr. Trump has floated.The stock market overall, though, has ripped to new highs, surpassing the records it set earlier in the year.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares91 Views

    in Economy

    Countries Weigh How to Raise Trillions for Climate Crisis at COP29

    by

    Low-income countries need at least $1 trillion a year to manage climate change. Donald Trump’s victory just made that more difficult, but options exist.Money: It’s the most contentious subject at the international climate talks this week in Baku, Azerbaijan. How much? From where? What for?Getting big cash commitments would be hard enough without wars, a pandemic and inflation having drained the reserves of rich countries that are expected to help poorer ones cope with climate hazards.It just got even harder. The election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States all but guarantees that the world’s richest country will not chip in. (Mr. Trump has said he would withdraw from the global climate accord altogether, as he did during his first term.)So now what?Several creative ideas are circulating to raise money for countries to invest in renewable energy and adapt to the dangers of climate change. They include levying taxes, tackling debt and pushing international development banks to do more, faster.The new proposals come with steep hurdles of their own, but the traditional way of raising money — passing around the hat and asking donor countries to make pledges — has failed to meet the need.The last time a climate finance goal was established, in 2009, rich countries promised to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020. They were two years late in meeting that target, and about 70 percent of the money came as loans, infuriating already heavily indebted countries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares87 Views

    in Economy

    Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next?

    by

    Many would-be home buyers are still hoping for mortgage rates to come down as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. How much they will fall is unclear.Rafael Corrales, a real estate agent in Miami, recently showed houses to a young couple hoping to move from a rental into a home. They had been lured to the market after hearing that mortgage rates had come down.But when the couple went to get approved for a home loan, they found that the borrowing costs had ticked up once again.“They were very confused,” said Mr. Corrales, 49, an agent for Redfin. It pushed them back onto the sidelines of the housing market, and they’re now staying put in the hope that rates will fall again.Mortgage rates fell steadily from this spring through September, as economic data slowed and as investors began to expect a steady string of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. But the rate on a 30-year mortgage has reversed course and climbed sharply over the past month to 6.79 percent nationally, from about 6.1 percent at the start of October.The move has come as a shock to some home buyers, who had waited many months for Fed officials to begin lowering borrowing costs, hoping that they would bring relief to the mortgage market.The logic was fairly simple. When the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rates, the downward shifts tend to trickle through financial markets to lower other interest rates. While the biggest impact is on short-term rates, the effect can extend to 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgages closely track. And the Fed is, in fact, adjusting policy. Officials cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September, and they followed with a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    U.S. average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
    Source: Freddie MacBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares62 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Win Shows Limits of Biden’s Industrial Policy

    by

    When President Biden addressed the nation this week after a gutting election, his reflections on his economic legacy offered a glimpse into why Democrats were resoundingly defeated.The efforts by the Biden-Harris administration to reshape American manufacturing were the most ambitious economic plans in a generation, but most voters had yet to see the fruits of those policies.“We have legislation we passed that’s only now just really kicking in,” Mr. Biden said, explaining that a “vast majority” of the benefits from federal investments that his administration made would be felt over the next decade.Legislation enacted by the Biden-Harris administration was designed to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the United States economy to develop domestic clean energy and semiconductor sectors. The investments were likened to a modern-day New Deal that would make American supply chains less reliant on foreign adversaries while creating thousands of jobs, including for workers without a college degree.But anger over more immediate and tangible economic issues — including rapid inflation and high mortgage rates — dwarfed optimism about factories that had yet to be built. That reality helped topple Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and showed the limits of industrial policy as a winning political strategy.In the days since Mr. Trump’s victory, current and former Biden administration officials have been grappling both privately and publicly with why their economic strategy did not prove to be more popular. They have comforted themselves with the fact that inflation has led to the defeat of incumbent leaders around the world, although most of those governments were also struggling with weak economies, whereas growth in the United States remains robust.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares112 Views

    in Economy

    With Trump Tariffs Looming, Businesses Try to ‘Run From a Moving Target’

    by

    Rick Muskat woke up the morning after the election with an urgent task. He got his agent in China on the phone at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time and pressed him to ask their factory how many more pairs of men’s dress shoes they could make before Chinese New Year, at the end of January.“I told them if they could make an additional 30,000 pairs, we would take that,” Mr. Muskat, the co-owner of a shoe company called Deer Stags, said on Thursday.The impetus was not a sudden jump in demand for shoes but the looming threat of steep tariffs on Chinese products. By stockpiling now, Mr. Muskat reckoned, his company could avoid at least some of the levies that President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to impose when he takes office in January.“We’re going to take whatever they can make,” Mr. Muskat said.The election of Mr. Trump is already cascading through global supply chains, where companies are grappling with his promises to remake international trade by raising the tariffs the United States puts on foreign products. Mr. Trump has floated a variety of plans — including a 10 to 20 percent tax on most foreign products, and a 60 percent tariff on goods from China — that would raise the surcharge American importers pay to a level not seen in generations.Much remains unclear about his proposals, including which countries other than China would face tariffs, what products might be excluded and when they would take effect. But given Mr. Trump’s history of imposing taxes and the challenges those pose to global businesses that depend on moving products across borders, many executives are not waiting to see what he does.Some, like Mr. Muskat, are preparing to stock up their U.S. warehouses before tariffs might go into effect. Others have been accelerating plans to move out of China, reaching out to lobbyists and lawyers in Washington and calling board meetings to discuss what the tariff threats could mean for their businesses.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 88 Shares104 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Tax Proposals Face a Fiscal Reckoning

    by

    No tax on tips? Lower corporate taxes? No tax on Social Security benefits?The slew of tax cuts President-elect Donald J. Trump proposed in loosely defined slogans over the course of his victorious campaign will now face a fiscal reckoning in Washington. While Republicans are poised to control both chambers of Congress, opening a path for Mr. Trump’s plans, the party is now grappling with how far they can take another round of tax cuts.Mr. Trump’s ambitions for a second term will ultimately have to compete with the signature accomplishment from his first: the giant tax package that Republicans passed and Mr. Trump signed into law in 2017. Large swaths of that tax cut expire at the end of next year, setting up an expensive debate that could overshadow Mr. Trump’s other goals.“Nobody wants to acknowledge at all the sheer enormity of the challenge,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “There’s a reckoning coming.”Unlike in 2016, when Mr. Trump’s victory surprised many in Washington, Republicans have spent months preparing for their return to power. They have been discussing using a fast-track budget process that skirts the supermajority requirement for legislation in the Senate, a tactic that would allow for a party-line passage of more tax cuts if Republicans ultimately keep control of the House.But lawmakers and advisers to Mr. Trump are undecided about how much money they can commit to lowering the nation’s taxes again. The cost of just preserving the status quo is steep. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that continuing all of the expiring provisions would cost roughly $4 trillion over a decade, and Mr. Trump’s campaign proposals could add trillions more to the debt.In interviews before the election, some Republicans said the party would have to show some fiscal discipline.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More