Prices (Fares, Fees and Rates)

More stories

  • 138 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover

    by

    Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic.A disconnect between economic data and consumer sentiment is being felt by Pennsylvania residents, including, from left, Donald Woods, a retired firefighter in West Philadelphia; Darren Mattern, a nurse in Altoona; and Lindsay Danella, a server in Altoona.Left: Caroline Gutman for The New York Times. Center and right: Ross Mantle for The New York TimesIn western Pennsylvania, halfway through one of those classic hazy March days when the worst of winter has passed, but the bare trees tilting in the wind tell everyone spring is yet to come, Darren Mattern was putting in some extra work.Tucked at a corner table inside a Barnes & Noble cafe in Logan Town Centre, a sprawling exurban shopping complex in Blair County, he tapped away at two laptops. His work PC was open with notes on his clients: local seniors in need of at-home health care and living assistance, whom he serves as a registered nurse. On his sleeker, personal laptop he eyed some coursework for the master’s degree in nursing he’s finishing so he can work as a supervisor soon.Mr. Mattern, warm and steady in demeanor, says the “huge blessing” of things evident in his everyday life at 35 — financial security, a home purchase last year, a baby on the way — weren’t possible until recently.He had warehouse jobs for most of his 20s, making a few dollars above minimum wage (in a state where that’s still $7.25 an hour), until he took nursing classes in the late 2010s. Shortly after becoming certified, he pushed through long days in a hospital during the height of the Covid pandemic at a salary of $40,000. Today, he has what he calls “the best nursing job pay-wise I’ve ever had,” at $85,000.Mr. Mattern’s trajectory is one bright line in a broad upward trend that hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians, and millions of other Americans, have experienced since the pandemic recession — a comeback in which unemployment has been below 4 percent for the longest stretch since the 1960s, small-business creation has flourished and the stock market has reached new heights.There’s a disconnect, however, between the raw data and a national mood that is somewhat improved but still sour. A surge in average weekly pay and full-time employment has helped offset the demoralizing effects of a two-year bout of heavy inflation as the global economy chaotically reopened. But it has not neutralized them.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    3 Facts That Help Explain a Confusing Economic Moment

    by

    3 Facts That Help Explain a Confusing Economic Moment

    The path to a “soft landing” doesn’t seem as smooth as it did four months ago. But the expectations of a year ago have been surpassed.April 13, 2024The economic news of the past two weeks has been enough to leave even seasoned observers feeling whipsawed. The unemployment rate fell. Inflation rose. The stock market plunged, then rebounded, then dropped again.Take a step back, however, and the picture comes into sharper focus.Compared with the outlook in December, when the economy seemed to be on a glide path to a surprisingly smooth “soft landing,” the recent news has been disappointing. Inflation has proved more stubborn than hoped. Interest rates are likely to stay at their current level, the highest in decades, at least into the summer, if not into next year.Shift the comparison point back just a bit, however, to the beginning of last year, and the story changes. Back then, forecasters were widely predicting a recession, convinced that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation would inevitably result in job losses, bankruptcies and foreclosures. And yet inflation, even accounting for its recent hiccups, has cooled significantly, while the rest of the economy has so far escaped significant damage.“It seems churlish to complain about where we are right now,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. “This has been a really remarkably painless slowdown given what we all worried about.”The monthly gyrations in consumer prices, job growth and other indicators matter intensely to investors, for whom every hundredth of a percentage point in Treasury yields can affect billions of dollars in trades.But for pretty much everyone else, what matters is the somewhat longer run. And from that perspective, the economic outlook has shifted in some subtle but important ways.

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    Change in prices from a year earlier in select categories
    Notes: “Groceries” chart shows price index for food at home. “Furniture” includes bedding.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    The unemployment rate
    Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

    .dw-chart-subhed {
    line-height: 1;
    margin-bottom: 6px;
    font-family: nyt-franklin;
    color: #121212;
    font-size: 15px;
    font-weight: 700;
    }

    The federal funds target rate
    Note: The rate since December 2008 is the upper limit of the federal funds target range.Source: The Federal ReserveBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares129 Views

    in Economy

    Higher for Longer After All? Investors See Fed Rates Falling More Slowly.

    by

    Investors went into 2024 expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates sharply. Stubborn inflation and quick growth call that into question.Investors were betting big on Federal Reserve rate cuts at the start of 2024, wagering that central bankers would lower interest rates to around 4 percent by the end of the year. But after months of stubborn inflation and strong economic growth, the outlook is starting to look much less dramatic.Market pricing now suggests that rates will end the year in the neighborhood of 4.75 percent. That would mean Fed officials had cut rates two or three times from their current 5.3 percent.Policymakers are trying to strike a delicate balance as they contemplate how to respond to the economic moment. Central bankers do not want to risk tanking the job market and causing a recession by keeping interest rates too high for too long. But they also want to avoid cutting borrowing costs too early or too much, which could prod the economy to re-accelerate and inflation to take even firmer root. So far, officials have maintained their forecast for 2024 rate cuts while making it clear that they are in no hurry to lower them.Here’s what policymakers are looking at as they think about what to do with interest rates, how the incoming data might reshape the path ahead, and what that will mean for markets and the economy.What ‘higher for longer’ means.When people say they expect rates to be “higher for longer,” they often mean one or both of two things. Sometimes, the phrase refers to the near term: The Fed might take longer to start cutting borrowing costs and proceed with those reductions more slowly this year. Other times, it means that interest rates will remain notably higher in the years to come than was normal in the decade leading up to the 2020 pandemic.When it comes to 2024, top Fed officials have been very clear that they are primarily focused on what is happening with inflation as they debate when to lower interest rates. If policymakers believe that price increases are going to return to their 2 percent goal, they could feel comfortable cutting even in a strong economy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares119 Views

    in Economy

    Consumers Hate ‘Price Discrimination,’ but They Sure Love a Discount

    by

    The Wendy’s debacle is a warning shot for brands: If you want to play with prices, make sure to communicate why and whom it could help.It’s been a strange and maddening couple of years for consumers, with prices of essential goods soaring and then sinking, turning household budgets upside down.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryOpen this article in the New York Times Audio app on iOS.Perhaps that’s why, in late February, the internet revolted over Wendy’s plan to test changing its menu prices across the day. If the Breakfast Baconator winds up costing $6.99 at 7 a.m. and $7.99 three hours later, what in life can you really count on anymore?The company later issued a statement saying it would not raise prices during busy parts of the day, but rather add discounts during slower hours. Nevertheless, the episode won’t stop the continued spread of so-called dynamic pricing, which describes an approach of setting prices in response to shifting patterns of demand and supply. It might not even stop the growth of “personalized pricing,” which targets individuals based on their personal willingness to pay.And in many circumstances, customers may come around — if they feel companies are being forthright about how they’re changing prices and what information they’re using to do it.“There’s a need for some transparency, and it has to make sense to consumers,” said Craig Zawada, a pricing expert with PROS, a consultancy that helped pioneer dynamic pricing by airlines in the 1980s and now works across dozens of other industries. “In general, from a buyer standpoint, there has to be this perception of fairness.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares109 Views

    in Economy

    New Questions on How a Key Agency Shared Inflation Data

    by

    A government economist had regular contact with “super users” in finance, records show, at a time when such information keenly interests investors.The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The revelation is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the way the government shares economic data at a time when such information keenly interests investors.An economist at the agency set off a firestorm in February when he sent an email to a group of data users explaining how a methodological tweak could have contributed to an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index the previous month. The email, addressed to “Super Users,” circulated rapidly around Wall Street, where every detail of inflation data can affect the bond market.At the time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the email had been an isolated “mistake” and denied that it maintained a list of users who received special access to information.But emails obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request show that the agency — or at least the economist who sent the original email, a longtime but relatively low-ranking employee — was in regular communication with data users in the finance industry, apparently including analysts at major hedge funds. And they suggest that there was a list of super users, contrary to the agency’s denials.“Would it be possible to be on the super user email list?” one user asked in mid-February.“Yes I can add you to the list,” the employee replied minutes later.A reporter’s efforts to reach the employee, whose identity the bureau confirmed, were unsuccessful.Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said that the agency did not maintain an official list of super users and that the employee appeared to have created the list on his own.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares179 Views

    in Economy

    U.S. Employers Added 303,000 Jobs in 39th Straight Month of Growth

    by

    The March data increased confidence among economists and investors that robust hiring and rising wages can continue to coexist while inflation eases.Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains.Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare.It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.The resilient data generally increased confidence among economists and market investors that the U.S. economy has reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages can coexist, despite the high interest rate levels of the last two years.From late 2021 to early 2023, inflation was outstripping wage gains, but that also now appears to have firmly shifted, even as wage increases decelerate from their roaring rates of growth in 2022. Average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.3 percent in March from the previous month and were up 4.1 percent from March 2023.Wage growth continues to slowYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

  • 100 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Fed Chair Powell Wants Inflation to Cool More

    by

    Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said officials can take their time cutting rates. He also underscored the Fed’s independence as election season heats up.Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank can take its time before cutting interest rates as inflation fades and economic growth holds up.The central bank chief also used a speech at Stanford to emphasize the Fed’s independence from politics, a relevant message at a time when election season threatens to pull Fed policy into an uncomfortable limelight.This year is a big one for the Fed: After long months of rapid inflation, price increases are finally coming down. That means that central bankers may soon be able to lower interest rates from their highest levels in two decades. The Fed raised rates to 5.3 percent from March 2022 to mid-2023 to cool the economy and bring inflation to heel.Figuring out when and how much to cut interest rates is tricky, though. Inflation has decelerated more slowly in recent months, and the Fed does not want to cut rates too early and fail to fully wrestle price increases under control. Investors had initially expected the Fed to lower rates early this year, but now see the first move coming in June or July as officials wait for more evidence that inflation has truly moderated.“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Mr. Powell said. “We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent.”“Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy,” he added. He called reducing inflation a “sometimes bumpy path.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares159 Views

    in Economy

    A Key Inflation Gauge Hovers Above Fed’s Target

    by

    The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was relatively stable on an annual basis, the latest reminder that bringing inflation down is a bumpy process.The latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge hovered above the level that officials aim for, evidence that price increases are proving stubborn even after declining notably in 2023.The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure, which the Fed officially targets as it tries to achieve 2 percent annual inflation, climbed by 2.5 percent in February compared to a year earlier, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected an increase of that size, following a rise of 2.4 percent in January.The closely watched measure that strips out volatile food and fuel prices for a clearer reading of underlying inflation climbed 2.8 percent, in line with what economists had expected for that “core” index and slightly cooler than the previous month.Those inflation readings are much milder than the highs reached in 2022, when overall inflation peaked at 7.1 percent and core at nearly 5.6 percent. But the latest numbers mark a speed bump after months of deceleration, one that is likely to keep Fed officials wary as they contemplate their next steps on monetary policy.Central bankers quickly raised interest rates to about 5.3 percent between early 2022 and the middle of last year, and have held them steady at that relatively high level for months in an effort to cool the economy and rein in inflation. Officials are now considering when they can cut rates, but they want to be sure that inflation is on a clear path back to 2 percent before adjusting policy.Fed officials are weighing two big risks as they consider their next steps. Leaving rates too high for too long could squeeze the economy severely, causing more damage than is necessary. But lowering them too early or by too much could bolster economic activity and make it harder to fully stamp inflation out. If rapid price increases become an embedded feature of the economy, officials worry that it could prove even more difficult to quash them down the road.As policymakers think about how much more cooling in inflation they need to see before cutting interest rates, they are watching both progress on prices and the momentum in the economy as a whole.Consumers have been spending strongly, and while there are some signs of cracks under the surface, that continued in February. Friday’s report, which also includes data about consumer spending, showed that consumption climbed 0.8 percent from the previous month, notably stronger than economists’ expectations. Spending was strong even after adjusting for inflation.The labor market has also remained solid, though job openings have come down after reaching very high levels in 2021 and 2022. Fed officials have suggested that they might view a marked slowdown in hiring — or a jump in unemployment — as a reason to cut rates earlier.For now, investors expect central bankers to cut interest rates in June after holding them steady at their next meeting, in May. More