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    A Tidal Wave of Change Is Headed for the U.S. Economy

    When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Signs Executive Order Walking Back Some Auto Tariffs

    Most levies on imported cars and car parts will remain in place, but automakers have secured some relaxation of the trade policy.President Trump signed a pair of executive orders on Tuesday that walked back some tariffs for carmakers, removing levies that Ford, General Motors and others have complained would backfire on U.S. manufacturing by raising the cost of production and squeezing their profits.The changes will modify Mr. Trump’s tariffs so carmakers that pay a 25 percent tariff on auto imports are not subject to other levies, for example on steel and aluminum, or on certain imports from Canada and Mexico, according to the orders. However, the rules do not appear to protect automakers from tariffs on steel and aluminum that their suppliers pay and pass on.Carmakers will also be able to qualify for tariff relief for a proportion of the cost of their imported components, though those benefits will be phased out over the next two years.At a in Michigan on Tuesday night, Mr. Trump said that he was showing “a little flexibility” to the automakers but that he wanted them to make their components in the United States.“We gave them a little time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this,” he said.The decision to reduce the scope of the tariffs is the latest sign that the Trump administration’s decision to impose stiff levies on nearly all trading partners has created challenges and economic uncertainty for American companies. But even with the concessions announced Tuesday, administration policies will add thousands of dollars to car prices and endanger the financial health of automakers and their suppliers, analysts said.Mr. Trump signed the executive orders aboard Air Force One as he flew to Michigan, home to America’s largest automakers, for a speech marking his 100 days in office.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    White House-Amazon Spat Culminates in Trump Calling Bezos ‘Very Nice’

    The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, attacked the retail giant over a report that suggested Amazon would highlight tariff-related price increases. Amazon said it was “not going to happen.”President Trump’s 100th day in office started with what seemed to be a fresh and fast-escalating spat between the White House and Amazon.Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, came out swinging in her press briefing on Tuesday morning, accusing Amazon of being “hostile and political” after a report — disputed by the company — from Punchbowl News saying that the online retail giant would start displaying the exact cost of tariff-related price increases alongside all its products.Displaying the import fees would have made clear to American consumers that they were shouldering the costs of Mr. Trump’s tariff policies rather than China, as he and his top officials have often claimed would be the case.After the report was published, Mr. Trump spoke about it over the phone with Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, according to three people familiar with the exchange. Amazon spokesmen hurriedly issued denials that the policy was going into effect, and by Tuesday afternoon Mr. Trump was back to praising Mr. Bezos.“Jeff Bezos is very nice,” Mr. Trump said to reporters as he embarked on a trip to Michigan for a rally commemorating the first 100 days of his second term. “He solved the problem very quickly. He did the right thing. Good guy.”This arc between Mr. Trump and Mr. Bezos that played out over just a few hours seemed telling. The Amazon mogul is among the billionaires who have gone to ever new lengths to get in good with this White House. Mr. Trump, in turn, has managed to woo such billionaires by promising he’d be better for business. And yet, at the first sign that Mr. Bezos might be prioritizing his businesses interests in a way that would harm Mr. Trump’s political fortunes, the White House didn’t hesitate to lash out publicly.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    After Trump Spares Apple, Other Businesses Want a Tariffs Break

    Retail executives huddled with the president amid fears that tariffs could result in higher prices.When President Trump’s steep tariffs threatened to send the price of iPhones soaring, Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook, called the White House — and soon secured a reprieve for his company and the broader electronics industry.Almost immediately, top aides to Mr. Trump insisted they had not strayed from their promise to apply import taxes across the economy with minimal, if any, exceptions. But the carve-out still caught the attention of many businesses nationwide, igniting a fresh scramble for similar help in the throes of a global trade war.Top lobbying groups for the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, retail and technology industries have pleaded with the White House in recent days to relax more of its tariffs, with many arguing that there are some products they must import simply because they are too expensive or impractical to produce in the United States.On Monday, executives from retailers including Home Depot, Target and Walmart became the latest to raise their concerns directly with Mr. Trump, as the industry continues to brace for the possibility that steep taxes on imports could result in price increases for millions of American consumers.“We had a productive meeting with President Trump and our retail peers to discuss the path forward on trade, and we remain committed to delivering value for American consumers,” a Target spokesman, Jim Joice, said in a statement.Doug McMillon, Walmart’s chief executive, has previously acknowledged the many “variables” surrounding Mr. Trump’s tariffs and retail prices. A spokeswoman for Walmart confirmed the meeting on Monday, describing the conversation in a statement as “productive.” Other companies did not respond to requests for comment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Business Playbook for Tariff Chaos

    President Trump’s trade war is forcing companies to cut costs, raise prices, shrink profits, discontinue products and find other suppliers.Shock. That was the first response to the Trump administration’s barrage of tariffs.Businesses that rely on imported products expected duties, which President Trump had promised. Just not this high, this universal or this sudden, with almost no time to adjust. A 145 percent tariff on all Chinese products, after all, is more like a trade wall than a mere barrier. But shock is settling into reality, and corporate leaders are trying to manage. Here are the main tacks that businesses are taking — at least for now, given that whatever duties the White House declares today may change tomorrow.Move out of China, preferably yesterdayFor many importers, this round of tariffs isn’t as painful as it might have been eight years ago. Mr. Trump’s first trade war, in 2018, while milder, pushed many to diversify their sourcing beyond China. The Covid-19 pandemic sent yet another signal that dependence on a single market, however cheap and efficient, is unwise.For William Westendorf, the chief executive of the medical supply distributor Air-Tite Products, the final straw was a 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made syringes imposed by the Biden administration last fall. He sent a staff member to scour Europe for a factory that could meet the Food and Drug Administration’s exacting standards.After six months of hunting and hoop-jumping — and with Chinese syringes now tariffed at 245 percent total — Mr. Westendorf has a shipment on the way from Turkey. It’s lucky timing, because factories outside of China are getting flooded with orders.“It’s not something you can do real quickly because of the regulatory environment,” Mr. Westendorf said. “Fortunately, we were there early.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Peter Navarro: The Architect of Trump’s Tariffs

    On a clear day last July in Miami, Peter Navarro emerged from four months in federal prison, where he’d been imprisoned for contempt of Congress. Mr. Navarro had refused to testify in an investigation of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, an action he described as a defense of the Constitution.Just hours after his release from prison, Mr. Navarro flew to Milwaukee to speak at the Republican National Convention in support of Donald J. Trump’s re-election.“They convicted me, they jailed me. Guess what? They did not break me,” he said that night, punctuating each word as the crowd roared. It was an exercise in loyalty to Mr. Trump that seems to have paid off.For much of Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Navarro, a trade adviser, had been sidelined, mocked and minimized by other officials who saw his protectionist views on trade as factually wrong and dangerous for the country.But in the second Trump administration, Mr. Navarro, 75, an economist and trade skeptic, has been newly empowered. He returned to government more confident in his revanchist vision for the American economy, more dismissive of his critics, and with more than a dozen trade-related executive orders already drafted, many of which the president has since signed. Mr. Trump also came back to Washington more determined to finally realize the trade views he has held for decades, that an unfair trading system was ripping America off and needed to be radically changed.Why Peter Navarro switched sidesAna Swanson explains how China’s entry into the World Trade Organization turned Navarro, a Southern California professor, into President Trump’s biggest trade warrior.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Trump Billionaires Who Run the Economy and the Things They Say

    “You have to laugh to keep from crying,” one Republican pollster said about recent comments by the billionaires on the stock market, retirement funds and Social Security.Sometimes the billionaires running the federal government sound like they’re talking to other billionaires.“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” President Trump wrote on social media last week, offering a stock tip that appeared aimed at the investor class rather than ordinary Americans watching their plummeting 401(k)s.Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, has said his mother-in-law wouldn’t be worried if she didn’t get her monthly Social Security check. Elon Musk, who is slashing the Social Security Administration’s staff, has called it a “Ponzi scheme.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has asserted that Americans aren’t looking at the “day-to-day fluctuations” in their retirement savings.And if automakers raise their prices because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs? “I couldn’t care less,” the president told Kristen Welker of NBC.Democrats say the comments show how clueless Mr. Trump and his friends are about the lives of most Americans, and that this is what happens when billionaires run the economy. Republicans counter that highlighting the quotes is unfair cherry picking, and that in the long run everyone will benefit from their policies, even if there’s pain now. Psychologists say that extreme wealth does change people and their views of those who have less.Whoever is right, it is safe to say that almost no one thinks the comments have been politically helpful for Mr. Trump, or calming for Americans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    As Tariffs Hit, Americans Are Racing to Buy Car Seats, iPhones and Christmas Gifts

    Many Americans have purchased foreign-made products out of fears that companies could start to raise prices soon.Emily Moen, a coffee shop manager in Omaha, was scrolling through TikTok earlier this week when she came across a video informing her that President Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher prices for essential baby products.Ms. Moen, who is 15 weeks pregnant, said that she had not planned to buy a car seat soon. But after watching the video, she researched the one made by Graco that she had been eyeing, and learned that it was manufactured in China. Worried that the $200 seat could get even more expensive, she bought the item on Amazon the same day.“It was like an awakening to get this done now,” said Ms. Moen, 29.As the Trump administration’s trade war with China escalates, many consumers have raced to purchase foreign-made products out of fear that companies could start to raise prices soon. Some have rushed to buy big-ticket items like iPhones and refrigerators. Others have hurriedly placed orders for cheap goods from Chinese e-commerce platforms.The White House this week imposed a minimum tariff rate of 145 percent on all Chinese imports to the United States, on top of other previously announced levies, including a 25 percent tariff on steel, aluminum, cars and car parts.And last week, Mr. Trump ordered the end of a loophole that had allowed goods from China worth less than $800 to enter the United States without tariffs.Early data show that consumers stocked up on goods after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on nearly all trading partners.Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More