Protectionism (Trade)

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Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime.

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Two dozen trade experts gathered recently to simulate how a global trade war would play out. The results were surprisingly optimistic.The world’s biggest powers were deep in a trade war. Economic losses from the tariffs that President Trump had imposed on most of the world, along with global retaliation, were accumulating. Jobs were being lost, inflation was ticking up and the world was both frustrated with and anxious about the United States.While the stakes were real, the trade war was not. Instead, it was a simulation to better understand how a global trade fight might unfold.Last month, two dozen trade experts from the United States and other countries gathered at a Washington think tank to try to simulate what could happen if Mr. Trump moves ahead with his plan to impose punishing tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners.Teams representing China, Europe, the United States and other governments spent a day running between conference rooms, offering proposals to remove the tariffs and make trade deals to forestall economic collapse.The game, which took place at the Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank focused on security issues, included think tank experts and former officials in the Trump and Biden administrations. The exercise was not aimed at predicting the future. Instead, by acting out what might happen, the participants were trying to reveal some of the dynamics that might be at play as Mr. Trump pursues an aggressive trade approach against allies and adversaries alike.In the last two months, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as levies on global steel and aluminum imports. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump is expected to announce a plan to raise tariff rates on other countries, and his 25 percent tariffs on cars and auto parts will go into effect on Thursday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration Tallies Trade Barriers That Could Prompt Tariffs

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    The Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report highlighting foreign trade barriers that could influence tariffs the president puts into effect this week.President Trump is set to announce on Wednesday global tariffs that he says will combat unfair trade treatment by other countries and make sure American exporters remain competitive.On Monday, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a wide-ranging report on foreign trade barriers that could hint at some of the trade battles the Trump administration aims to fight.In an annual report, the office listed the most important barriers to U.S. exports in dozens of countries. Those obstacles included tariffs, but also laws, regulations and policies that the administration said undermine competition. Here are eight of the most consequential trading partners for the United States that could be targeted in the president’s tariff announcements this week.ChinaThe report dedicated almost 50 of its nearly 400 pages to China, which has long been a subject of trade criticism for American officials and companies.The report criticized China as using industrial planning and other policies to support certain sectors it had targeted for “domination,” such as robotics, aerospace, new energy vehicles and biopharmaceuticals. The trade representative’s office argued that those tools sometimes worked by discriminating against or taking advantage of foreign enterprises, and that the program had allowed Chinese firms to win market share at the expense of foreign competitors.The office also pointed out that China had not followed through in rolling out provisions of the trade deal signed with Mr. Trump in his first term, including commitments to open up its agricultural market and protect U.S. intellectual property. Trade data also shows that China fell far short of commitments it made to purchase U.S. goods and services in 2020 and 2021, the report said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariff Agenda Bets on Americans Giving Up Cheap Goods

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    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that the American dream is about more than cheap televisions, but inflation-weary consumers might disagree.Follow the latest news on the Trump administration.President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are expected to raise the cost of cars, electronics, metals, lumber, pharmaceuticals and other products that American consumers and businesses buy from overseas.But Mr. Trump and his advisers are betting that they can sell an inflation-weary public on a provocative idea: Cheap stuff is not the American dream.“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars,” Mr. Trump said on NBC’s Meet the Press show on Sunday in response to fears of foreign car prices spiking.The notion that there is more to life than low-cost imports is an acknowledgment that tariffs could impose additional costs on Americans. It is also a pitch that the burden will be worth it. Mr. Trump’s ability to convince consumers that it is acceptable to pay more to support domestic manufacturing and adhere to his “America First” agenda could determine whether the president’s second term is a success or a calamity.But it is not an easy sell. The onslaught of tariffs has roiled markets and dampened consumer confidence. Auto tariffs that go into effect on Thursday will add a 25 percent tax on imports of cars and car parts, likely upending pricing in the sector. Mr. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 20 percent on Chinese goods and more are expected later this week, when the president announces his “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners, including those in Asia and Europe.In confronting anxiety over the trade uncertainty, Mr. Trump and his top economic aides have resorted to asking Americans to think about the bigger picture. They espouse the view that Mr. Trump’s trade wars are necessary to correct decades of economic injustice and that paying a bit more should be a matter of national pride.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Imported Cars and Car Parts

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    President Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on cars and car parts that were imported into the United States, a move that could encourage U.S. auto production over the longer run but is likely to throw global supply chains into disarray and raise prices for Americans who buy an automobile.The tariffs will go into effect on April 3 and apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States and to imported parts that are included in cars assembled at American auto plants. Those tariffs will hit foreign brands as well as American ones, like Ford Motor and General Motors, which assemble some automobiles outside the country, including in Canada or Mexico.Nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts in vehicles assembled in the United States. That means the tariffs could push up car prices significantly when inflation has already made cars and trucks more expensive for American consumers.During remarks at the White House, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would encourage auto companies and their suppliers to set up shop in the United States.“Anybody who has plants in the United States, it’s going to be good for,” he said.But the auto industry is global and has been built up around trade agreements that allow factories in different countries to specialize in certain parts or types of cars, with the expectation that they would face little to no tariffs. That has been particularly true for North America, where national auto sectors have been stitched together by trade agreements since the 1960s.Stock markets fell on news that the auto tariffs would be imposed. Shares of major carmakers tumbled further in after-hours trading, after the White House clarified that the tariffs would also cover imported auto parts. General Motors was down nearly 7 percent and Ford and Stellantis were more than 4 percent lower after the markets closed. Tesla’s stock fell 1 percent in extended trading.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    US Exporters Vie to Shape Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Ahead of April 2

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    Ahead of President Trump’s next big trade move, his administration invited companies to weigh in on the economic barriers they faced abroad.The list of complaints was both sprawling and specific. In hundreds of letters submitted to the administration in recent weeks, producers of uranium, shrimp, T-shirts and steel highlighted the unfair trade treatment they faced, in hopes of bending the president’s trade agenda in their favor. The complaints varied from Brazil’s high tariffs on ethanol and pet food, to India’s high levies on almonds and pecans, to Japan’s longstanding barriers to American potatoes.Mr. Trump has promised to overhaul the global trading system on April 2, when he plans to impose what he is calling “reciprocal tariffs” that will match the levies and other policies that countries impose on American exports. The president has taken to calling this “liberation day,” arguing that it will end years of other countries “ripping us off.”On Monday, Mr. Trump appeared to suggest a potential softening to the tariffs, saying, “I may give a lot of countries breaks.” He added, “It’s reciprocal, but we may be even nicer than that.”“They’ve charged us so much that I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us,” he said at an event at the White House. “But it’ll be substantial.”Mr. Trump also signaled that the White House could finalize tariffs on foreign-made cars before April 2, teasing that an announcement could come “fairly soon, over the next few days probably.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares137 Views

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    Trump’s Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Take Effect

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    President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum went into effect on Wednesday, escalating America’s trade spats with global competitors, including close allies already reeling from his on-and-off approach to trade penalties.Mr. Trump’s tariffs of 25 percent on the metals hit imports that enter the United States from any country in the world. The move, which many domestic steel and aluminum makers support, is expected to raise costs for American manufacturers of cars, tin cans, solar panels and other products, potentially slowing the wider U.S. economy.The action on metals was just the latest attempt by Mr. Trump to leverage the power of tariffs and the American market against foreign governments. Last week, he issued steep tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, blaming those countries for the entry of drugs and migrants into the United States, before quickly paring some of them back. The president is threatening to impose a raft of other tariffs, including on foreign cars and against countries that he says discriminate against the United States.His approach has been met with a market slump and has sent many U.S. allies into a defensive mode as they try to decipher what the president actually wants. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump threatened to double the tariffs on Canadian metal after Ontario had responded to Mr. Trump’s previous tariffs by putting a surcharge on electricity exported to the United States. Within hours, Ontario had suspended its surcharge, and Mr. Trump walked back his threats.The metal tariffs, and other levies to come, are likely to again worsen trade disputes. Foreign governments, including in Canada, have vowed to retaliate by issuing levies that will most likely hurt U.S. exporters. On Wednesday, Europe swiftly announced tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of goods in response. The metal tariffs mainly affect U.S. allies: Canada is by far the largest supplier of both steel and aluminum to the United States. Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam are also top suppliers of steel, while the United Arab Emirates, Russia and China are top suppliers of American aluminum.The tariffs restore and expand similar measures that Mr. Trump put in place in 2018, which ushered in several long-running trade wars. Mr. Trump argued that the tariffs were needed to protect national security and provide a reliable source of metal for the military in wartime.Biggest Steel ImportersAnnual steel imports by the top 12 places of origin More

  • 113 Shares174 Views

    in Economy

    Tariffs Add to Automaker Concerns About Higher Steel Costs

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    President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports could make it more expensive to produce cars in the United States, dealing another blow to automakers already facing the potential of rising steel prices because of other policies from his administration.Top of mind for auto executives was the bid by the Japanese steel maker Nippon Steel to buy U.S. Steel. Many of them had hoped that Mr. Trump would be open to negotiating a deal to allow the acquisition to go ahead. Instead, the president confirmed last month that he opposed the proposed deal.Many auto industry executives believe that the merger could have increased competition and supply in the American steel industry, ultimately lowering steel prices.In the United States, U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs are the only major American producers of the high-finish steel favored by automakers. Cleveland-Cliffs has long sought to acquire its rival, but such a merger has raised concerns in the auto industry that it could create a monopoly, giving the combined company the power to raise prices.By contrast, industry groups expected the proposed Nippon Steel deal to preserve competition in the market. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing major U.S., Japanese, and European automakers, expressed support for Nippon Steel’s acquisition, saying that a Cleveland-Cliffs-led deal would result in “anti-competitive pricing of materials.”Even after former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. rejected the deal in January, Nippon Steel continued efforts to revive it. Cleveland-Cliffs has recently indicated that it remains interested in bidding for the financially troubled U.S. Steel. Last month, Mr. Trump reiterated that U.S. Steel must remain American-owned, and said he would block Nippon Steel from taking a controlling stake in the company.For automakers struggling with challenges such as rising competition from Chinese rivals, costly technological transitions, and signs of a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending, the new steel tariffs are expected to further squeeze profits. The 25 percent levies, which went into effect on Wednesday, are expected to cause steel prices in the United States to rise about 16 percent compared to prices in 2024, according to the research firm Wolfe Research. More

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    Trump Tariffs and Trade Wars Leave Investors, Once Optimistic, Feeling Apprehensive

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    On Tuesday, President Trump sent markets into another tailspin by announcing additional tariffs on Canada, suggesting a falling stock market is no longer the bulwark investors had hoped.President Trump made a lot of promises on the campaign trail last year. Investors and business leaders enthusiastically cheered some, like lower taxes and relaxed regulation, and expressed wariness about others, like tariffs and reduced immigration.But when Mr. Trump won the election, there was little sign of that ambivalence: Stock prices soared, as did measures of business optimism.Investors at the time offered a simple explanation: They believed Mr. Trump, backed by a Republican-controlled Congress, would follow through on the parts of his agenda that they liked and scale back the more disruptive policies like tariffs if financial markets started to get spooked.It is increasingly clear they were wrong.In his first weeks in office, Mr. Trump has made tariffs the central focus of his economic policy, promising, and at times imposing, steep penalties on allies as well as adversaries. He has threatened to curb subsidies that businesses had come to rely on. And he has empowered Elon Musk’s efforts to slash the federal bureaucracy, potentially putting tens of thousands of federal workers out of jobs and cutting off billions of dollars in government grants and contracts.Most surprising, at least to the optimists on Wall Street: Mr. Trump has so far been undeterred by signs of cracks in the economy or by plunging stock prices.“The idea that the administration is going to be held back by a self-imposed market constraint should be discounted,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares168 Views

    in Economy

    Trump Has Said ‘No Exceptions’ to His Tariffs. Will That Last?

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    As he prepares to introduce new tariffs on foreign metals this week, President Trump has vowed not to grant the types of exclusions and exemptions that were common during his first trade war.But he has already undercut that tough position on other tariffs. After lobbying from automakers, farmers and other industries, Mr. Trump quickly walked back the sweeping tariffs he had imposed on Tuesday on all imports from Canada and Mexico. By Thursday, he had suspended those tariffs indefinitely for all products that comply with the North American free trade deal, U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A. — about half of all imports from Mexico and nearly 40 percent of those from Canada.That has given industries and foreign governments an opening to lobby the administration ahead of the metals tariffs, which go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, as well as other levies planned for April 2.Foreign officials have been pressing for exemptions for their steel and aluminum. In meetings in Washington on Monday, Japan’s trade minister was also expected to seek an exemption from tariffs on automobiles, which Mr. Trump has said are coming in April.Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council, a trade group representing U.S. automakers, said in a statement that Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis purchase the vast majority of their steel and aluminum in the United States or North America and were worried about the impact of the levies.The companies were reviewing and awaiting details of the proposed tariffs, but were “concerned” that levying them on Canada and Mexico would “add significant costs for our suppliers,” Mr. Blunt said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More