Protectionism (Trade)

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Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.

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The president’s supporters portray him as a top dealmaker. But, at least for now, far more trading partners have gotten stiff tariffs than trade deals.Even after President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, some investors and supporters comforted themselves by arguing that the president’s goal was still to open global markets, not close them off.The belief, promoted by Mr. Trump himself, was that he was using his tariffs as a lever to crack open foreign markets and the administration would soon deliver dozens of deals that would increase U.S. exports and help American businesses flourish abroad.Three months later, that optimism is being replaced by doubts that Mr. Trump’s goal was ever to strike the kind of trade deals that would open up markets. When Mr. Trump paused his global tariffs for 90 days in April, he said the delay would give his administration time to reach trade deals with countries across the world. In the intervening months, Mr. Trump boasted about how countries were lining up to talk to the United States and at one point claimed he had reached 200 deals.But the administration has only announced two preliminary deals, with Britain and Vietnam, and the status of the Vietnam deal is now in question. While handshake agreements with the European Union, India, Taiwan and other governments could soon be pending, they are likely to be limited pacts that leave much left to be negotiated. Even when deals have been announced, the administration has left double-digit tariffs in place, with the promise of more levies on foreign products on the way.This week, Mr. Trump sent out nearly two dozen letters notifying countries of the high tariff rates they will be charged as of Aug. 1 if they don’t sign trade deals. That included nations that were in active negotiations with the United States, like Indonesia, Canada, South Korea and Malaysia.With less than a month before the Aug. 1 tariffs kick in, the Trump administration may have the capacity to deal with only a fraction of those countries. Some governments that have sought out meetings with U.S. officials have not been able to schedule them.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s New Trade Threats Set Off Global Scramble to Avoid Tariffs

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    Many countries thought they were negotiating in good faith. The White House renewed its “reciprocal” tariff plan anyway, giving countries until Aug. 1 to make offers.Over the past three months, nations across the world tried to avoid new tariffs that would punish their economies by giving President Trump something he might want.Indonesia offered to buy $34 billion more in U.S. crops and fuels. Thailand proposed lowering many of its own trade barriers, and buying more U.S.-made planes. Japan was ready to buy more liquefied natural gas over the next two decades.But as Mr. Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline approached, those entreaties made little difference. The 14 letters he posted online on Monday, mostly aimed at countries in Asia, largely matched the rates set in April, before he backed off and gave dozens of countries 90 days to negotiate agreements that would satisfy the White House’s demand for more balanced trade.“We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with Thailand, and have concluded that we must move away from these long-term, and very persistent, Trade Deficits engendered by Thailand’s Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers,” Mr. Trump wrote, swapping out only each country’s name in otherwise virtually identical missives.That fresh volley has left countries large and small, nearly all of them longstanding allies of the United States, with profound questions about how to move forward with the world’s largest consumer economy when negotiations over trade conflicts are labored and deadlines are extended without warning.“Many in Asia are going to ask, ‘Is this how the U.S. treats its friends?’” said Manu Bhaskaran, chief executive of Centennial Asia Advisors, a research firm. “Will there be permanent damage to American standing and interests in Asia and elsewhere through these crude threats and unpleasant language?” More

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    How Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Will Affect Companies

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    Home builders, car manufacturers and can makers are among those that will see higher prices for materials. Those companies could charge customers more.President Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent less than three months after imposing a 25 percent tariff on them. He said the move, made Wednesday, would help support U.S. steel companies, but many domestic businesses say that the latest increase would hurt them and raise prices for all Americans.U.S. home builders, car manufacturers, oil producers and can makers will be among the most affected. Many companies in those and other industries will likely pass on cost increases to their customers.“It means higher costs for consumers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a research organization in Washington that tends to favor lower trade barriers.These are some of the industries that could feel the biggest effects from Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs.American Steel MakersIndustry groups representing domestic steel producers praised the steeper levies, which they said could spur investment and create jobs in the United States.Kevin Dempsey, the president and chief executive at the American Iron and Steel Institute, said the latest increase would help U.S. steel producers compete with China and other countries that have flooded the global market with metal. Mr. Dempsey said the industry had worried that the 25 percent tariff on steel imports alone was not sufficient.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Tariff Truce With China Demonstrates the Limits of Trump’s Aggression

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    President Trump’s triple-digit tariffs on Chinese products disrupted global trade — but haven’t appeared to result in major concessions from Beijing.President Trump’s decision to impose, and then walk back, triple-digit tariffs on Chinese products over the past month demonstrated the power and global reach of U.S. trade policy. But it was also another illustration of the limitations of Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach.The tariffs on Chinese goods, which the United States ratcheted up to a minimum of 145 percent in early April, brought much trade between the countries to a standstill. They caused companies to reroute business globally, importing less from China and more from other countries like Vietnam and Mexico. They forced Chinese factories to shutter, and brought some American importers to the verge of bankruptcy.The tariffs ultimately proved too painful to American businesses for Mr. Trump to sustain. Within weeks, Trump officials were saying that the tariffs the president had chosen to impose on one of America’s largest trading partners were unsustainable, and that they were angling to reduce them.Trade talks between the world’s largest economies in Geneva this weekend concluded with an agreement to reduce stiff levies on each other’s products by more than many analysts had anticipated. Chinese imports will face a minimum tax of 30 percent, down from 145 percent. China will lower its import duty on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. The two countries also agreed to hold talks to stabilize the relationship.It remains to be seen what agreements can be reached in future negotiations. But the talks this weekend, and the tariff chaos of the past month, did not appear to generate any other immediate concessions from the Chinese other than a commitment to keep talking. That has called into question whether the trade disruptions of the past month — which led many American businesses to cancel orders for Chinese imports, freeze expansion plans and warn of higher prices — were worth it.“The Geneva agreement represents an almost complete U.S. retreat that vindicates Xi’s decision to forcefully retaliate,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Threatened Tariffs Are So Large, 10% Feels Like a Relief

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    As he proposes ever stiffer tariffs, President Trump has normalized his merely big ones.There has been a mantra spreading among weary corporate executives who are becoming resigned to President Trump’s tariffs while still hoping to avoid the worst of their effects: Ten percent is the new zero.The statement refers to the 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump put in place on most U.S. imports one month ago. Such a significant increase in U.S. tariffs would have been unthinkable a few years ago. But it no longer seems like such a big deal, compared with the truly large tariffs that Mr. Trump has already imposed or threatened elsewhere.Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2 that he was planning tariffs of 10 percent to 60 percent on dozens of America’s trading partners set off a rout in the bond markets and a flight from the U.S. dollar as investors panicked at the prospect of an economically devastating trade war. Mr. Trump also ratcheted up tariffs on China to a minimum of 145 percent amid a trade spat with Beijing, bringing much of the trade between the countries to a halt.That turmoil appears to have moderated Mr. Trump’s impulses somewhat. The president quickly paused tariffs on most countries, giving them 90 days to negotiate trade deals instead.Mr. Trump also granted a lucrative exemption from China tariffs for makers of electronics and offered some limited relief for automakers. And he has hinted that he could do more, saying he likes to be “flexible.”Investors have lapped up any signs of good news, even insubstantial ones. Stock markets have now regained nearly all of the losses they sustained after April 2, buoyed by comments from Trump administration officials that they are working to close trade deals with allies and planning to meet with Chinese counterparts to discuss their standoff.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Can President Trump Turn Back the Economic Clock?

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    Historians make their names by persuading people to see patterns in the chaos. In the late 1970s, the French historian Fernand Braudel thought that one of those patterns was about to repeat. Braudel was a student of the slow-moving currents that shape events. He wanted people to pay less attention to great men like Napoleon and more to seemingly humble things like the potato, a New World import that made it easier for European farmers to grow more food than they needed; this surplus, in turn, gave a wider array of Europeans time to engage in new hobbies like complaining about their rulers. One might say that he regarded the potato as the cause of Napoleon.Listen to this article, read by Malcolm HillgartnerIn the third volume of his epic “Civilization and Capitalism,” published in 1979, Braudel explored the forces that made one city at a time the economic center of the Western world, from Venice to Amsterdam to London, and then inexorably lifted up another in its place. He wrote that cities rose as centers of commerce, and then, as they prospered, they began to invest their surpluses in building new centers, engineering their own declines. Commerce moved on, leaving a financial hub behind.Braudel’s account ended with the decline of Amsterdam, the entrepôt of Europe through the 17th and into the 18th century, a city of astonishing wealth and diversity. Wide-eyed visitors wrote of its wonders with the same astonishment as later generations would write of New York. The young czar of Russia went home so impressed that he built St. Petersburg in its image. But as Amsterdam grew fat and happy, its merchants became bankers and began to seek better returns in fast-growing London. Amsterdam, Braudel wrote, became “a society of rentier investors on the lookout for anything that would guarantee a quiet and privileged life,” a society that had moved on “from the healthy tasks of economic life to the more sophisticated games of the money market.”Braudel noted that London, too, eventually ceded its role, underwriting the rise of New York in the early 20th century. And in the late 1970s, he judged that New York was entering the “autumn” of its era as the center of the global economy. Commerce and industry were fleeing the city, leaving behind a thriving financial center — a sure sign in Braudel’s view that New York, and the nation it anchored, were on the edge of decline.Donald Trump became Donald Trump in that city, building towers and bankrupting casinos as Wall Street boomed and the working class faded away, and he emerged with a similarly bleak view of America’s prospects. His career as a political figure has been built on his conviction that America is losing its wealth and its power. If Ronald Reagan filled voters with hope, Trump offers to keep them company in their misery. He has an intuition for the things that people fear and is comfortable saying what other politicians won’t. Where other presidents intone that it’s still Morning in America, Trump has touched a nerve by insisting that it’s not long before midnight.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    GM Cuts Profit Forecast by 20% and Says Auto Tariffs Will Cost It Billions

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    General Motors now expects to earn a lot less than it did before President Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on imported cars and auto parts.General Motors cut its profit forecast for 2025 on Thursday by more than 20 percent and said the Trump administration’s tariffs would increase its costs by $4 billion to $5 billion this year.In a conference call with analysts, G.M. executives said the company now expected to make $8.2 billion to $10.1 billion this year, down from a previous forecast of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion.“G.M.’s business is fundamentally strong as we adapt to the new trade policy environment,” the company’s chief executive, Mary T. Barra, said.In April, President Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on imported vehicles and will begin imposing the same duty on imported auto parts on Saturday. On Tuesday, the president modified how the tariffs are applied to give automakers some relief, including partial reimbursement for tariffs on imported parts for two years.Ms. Barra said G.M. hoped to offset about 30 percent of the impact of the tariffs by increasing production in U.S. plants, cutting costs and working with suppliers to raise their domestic production of parts and components.G.M. had previously said it was increasing pickup truck production at a plant near Fort Wayne, Ind., which will reduce the number of vehicles it imports from Canada and Mexico. Ms. Barra said output at the Fort Wayne factory would increase by about 50,000 trucks this year.She also said G.M. now planned to make more battery modules in its U.S. plants to raise the portion of domestic content in its electric vehicles.About $2 billion in tariff-related cost increases will come from vehicles that are made in Canada, Mexico and South Korea and sold in the United States.Analysts have predicted that the tariffs will add thousands of dollars to the cost of new cars and trucks, and that some or all of that will be passed on to consumers. In the call, G.M.’s chief financial officer, Paul Jacobson, said the company now expected new vehicle prices to rise 0.5 percent to 1 percent this year. Previously, the company forecast that pricing would fall by 1 percent to 1.5 percent.Other automakers are also planning to produce more vehicles in the United States. Mercedes-Benz said Thursday that it would build a new vehicle at an Alabama factory as part of what the German carmaker called a “deepening commitment” to manufacturing in the United States.While the company did not mention tariffs, Mercedes and other carmakers have been at pains in recent weeks to emphasize how many cars they already build in the United States and their plans to make more. Mercedes did not provide details about the car, except to say it will be a new design tailored to the U.S. market and begin production in 2027.The company’s factory near Tuscaloosa, Ala., primarily assembles luxury sport utility vehicles, including electric models, for sale in the United States and export to other markets.Jack Ewing More

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    How Trump May Unintentionally Cut Carbon Emissions

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    President Trump has expressed little interest in fighting climate change. One of his key cabinet officials has even sought to evaluate whether humanity benefits from a warming climate, in a bid to undermine environmental rules.Yet even as he works to accelerate oil and gas production, Mr. Trump’s economic approach may inadvertently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as consumption slows in response to a global trade war.Any reprieve for the planet, however, would be brief. Over the longer term, tanking the economy with tit-for-tat tariffs is likely to impede progress, because of how much clean energy deployment depends on overseas supply chains and because voters are less likely to support climate policy when they’re financially stressed.Carbon emissions, largely a byproduct of going places and making things, have always been tethered to economic growth. Forecasters increasingly anticipate that Mr. Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs could tip the economy into recession as companies and consumers cut spending in the face of higher prices for imported goods.“If we’re talking about a traditional recession, people fly less, they buy less stuff, there’s less investment in capital goods,” said Alex Heil, a senior economist at the Conference Board, who focuses on energy and climate. “And just a slowdown in economic activity is likely to slow down carbon emissions.”That is what happened in the last two recessions. Global carbon emissions dipped slightly, before resuming their upward march. (Emissions in the United States continued to decline after 2008 as cheap natural gas displaced coal, and it’s possible that a similar peak is nearing for the rest of the world.)Carbon Emissions Slow When the Economy Takes a Hit

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    Global annual carbon emissions
    Source: Global Carbon BudgetBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s 100-Day Economic Report Card

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    Market chaos and economic uncertainty has been a feature of the president’s first few months back in office. DealBook breaks down the milestones, and what to expect next.Trump’s tumultuous start When President Trump took office in January for his second term, business leaders anticipated an administration that would lower taxes, loosen regulations and open up deal-making.Instead, Wall Street got chaos. The president has taken a cudgel to global trade with enormous tariffs, threatened the independence of the Fed and made the landscape for M.&A. more uncertain.Under Trump, the S&P 500 has fallen about 8 percent, the worst performance for the first 100 days of a presidency since President Gerald Ford in 1974.Back then, the Watergate scandal prompted political instability and the economy was facing a recession and an oil crisis. The markets this year have been socked by the president’s protectionist trade policy.Here are the themes that have defined Trump’s first 100 days in office. Trump will commemorate the occasion with a rally in Michigan this evening, and the White House is expected to announce relief on auto tariffs.On that note: General Motors on Tuesday pulled its full-year forecast as it reported first-quarter results. “The prior guidance cannot be relied upon” amid tariffs uncertainty, said Paul Jacobson, the company’s C.F.O.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More