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It’s No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump

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The president has earned a reputation for bluffing on tariffs. But he has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade.President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have prompted investors to bet that he will “always chicken out” and given businesses and foreign leaders hope that the leader of the world’s largest economy will ultimately back down from his threats if they prove too economically disruptive.Events of the past week have cast serious doubt on that bet. As Mr. Trump renews trade threats against more than two dozen trading partners, he is once again proving his fondness for tariffs, and embracing import taxes in a way that no other president has since the Great Depression.A self-described “tariff man,” Mr. Trump has continually extolled the virtues of heavily taxing imports as a way to raise revenue and cajole factories to relocate to the United States. While the president may ultimately give way on some of his most recent threats, he has still steadily and dramatically raised tariffs to levels not seen in a century.Over the past week, Mr. Trump has threatened 25 trading partners with punishing levies on Aug. 1 unless they sign trade deals that Mr. Trump finds acceptable. The list of countries he plans to raise tariffs on include some of America’s biggest sources of imports, including the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Thailand. Those countries had been in active talks with the United States about resolving Mr. Trump’s concerns in an effort to avoid tariffs.Several may still reach deals to avert some of the levies, including India, the European Union, Taiwan and Japan.But even if some deals are reached, American tariffs on trading partners are still likely to rise significantly. That was the case with the two trade agreement frameworks that the Trump administration has so far announced, with Britain and Vietnam, both of which leave double-digit tariffs in place.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.

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    The president’s supporters portray him as a top dealmaker. But, at least for now, far more trading partners have gotten stiff tariffs than trade deals.Even after President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, some investors and supporters comforted themselves by arguing that the president’s goal was still to open global markets, not close them off.The belief, promoted by Mr. Trump himself, was that he was using his tariffs as a lever to crack open foreign markets and the administration would soon deliver dozens of deals that would increase U.S. exports and help American businesses flourish abroad.Three months later, that optimism is being replaced by doubts that Mr. Trump’s goal was ever to strike the kind of trade deals that would open up markets. When Mr. Trump paused his global tariffs for 90 days in April, he said the delay would give his administration time to reach trade deals with countries across the world. In the intervening months, Mr. Trump boasted about how countries were lining up to talk to the United States and at one point claimed he had reached 200 deals.But the administration has only announced two preliminary deals, with Britain and Vietnam, and the status of the Vietnam deal is now in question. While handshake agreements with the European Union, India, Taiwan and other governments could soon be pending, they are likely to be limited pacts that leave much left to be negotiated. Even when deals have been announced, the administration has left double-digit tariffs in place, with the promise of more levies on foreign products on the way.This week, Mr. Trump sent out nearly two dozen letters notifying countries of the high tariff rates they will be charged as of Aug. 1 if they don’t sign trade deals. That included nations that were in active negotiations with the United States, like Indonesia, Canada, South Korea and Malaysia.With less than a month before the Aug. 1 tariffs kick in, the Trump administration may have the capacity to deal with only a fraction of those countries. Some governments that have sought out meetings with U.S. officials have not been able to schedule them.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Takes Reins on U.S. Economy With Policy Bill and Tariffs Renewal

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    His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.Then, on Monday, Mr. Trump began to issue his latest round of tariff threats, insisting that “we’re done” negotiating as economists warned about a potential surge in consumer prices that could arise from taxing imports.The White House also proceeded with its aggressive and legally contested plans to eliminate scores of federal regulations and deport millions of migrants. The immigration crackdown, in particular, could come to the detriment of many sectors, like agriculture, that rely heavily on foreign labor, experts believe.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Big Policy Bill Puts U.S. on Perilous Fiscal Path

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    Among the most expensive pieces of legislation in years, the Republican legislation could reshape the country’s finances for a generation.Washington has not exactly won a reputation for fiscal discipline over the last few decades, as both Republicans and Democrats passed bills that have, bit by bit, degraded the nation’s finances.But the legislation that Republicans passed through the Senate on Tuesday stands apart in its harm to the budget, analysts say. Not only did an initial analysis show it adding at least $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next 10 years — making it among the most expensive bills in a generation — but it would also reduce the amount of tax revenue the country collects for decades. Such a shortfall could begin a seismic shift in the nation’s fiscal trajectory and raise the risk of a debt crisis.The threat is a reflection of the fact that Senate Republicans have voted to make tax cuts that the party first passed in 2017 a permanent feature of the tax code. That means the growth in the country’s debt, already at levels economists find alarming, would only accelerate as the bill shaves down the country’s main source of money.“We are looking at the most expensive piece of legislation probably since the 1960s,” said Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. “The danger is that Congress is piling trillions of new borrowing on top of deficits that are already leaping.”Historically, lawmakers have been unable to make such a large change in the country’s finances without bipartisan support, helping contain how much debt is added at a time.That is because reconciliation, the special legislative procedure that Republicans used to avoid the filibuster in the Senate and pass the bill along party lines, has long included the requirement that bills cannot add to the debt for more than a decade. But Republicans decided to disregard that rule, relying on an accounting gimmick to argue that the $3.8 trillion cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts is actually zero and therefore they can continue indefinitely.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Some Republicans Join Democrats in Unease Over White House Budget Cuts

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    President Trump has sought to claw back funds for public broadcasting and foreign aid, sparking a fierce debate over the power of the purse.A handful of Senate Republicans joined Democrats on Wednesday in sharp questioning of President Trump’s proposed budget cuts, exposing the depth of congressional unease with the White House’s new plan to pare back billions of dollars for foreign aid and public broadcasting.The rare display of bipartisan discord left the fate of that package uncertain at a moment when the Trump administration has signaled that it is willing to circumvent Congress to slash federal spending, potentially touching off a constitutional battle over the power of the purse.The dynamic played out over a tense, roughly three-hour grilling of Russell T. Vought, the White House budget director, who asked lawmakers to approve Mr. Trump’s request to rescind more than $9 billion in enacted funds. The administration has framed the package, unveiled this month, as the first of possibly many that could implement changes identified by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.But Democrats and some Republicans on Wednesday questioned the president’s proposed clawbacks, which passed the House earlier in June. Some lawmakers said the cuts would undermine longtime bipartisan priorities, including a shared desire to preserve local television and radio stations and combat the global AIDS crisis.Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and the chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she worried about the implications for global health, particularly because some of the funding that the president targeted has “saved more than 26 million lives.”Lawmakers from both parties later echoed some of those criticisms, prompting Ms. Collins to conclude the hearing by saying that it showed the “depth of concerns about this rescission from members on both sides of the aisle” with the White House’s plans. A spokesperson for the senator later confirmed that she was drafting an amendment to change the package when it reached the Senate floor.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Senate Republicans Propose Key Tax Tweaks to House Bill

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    Party lawmakers proposed changes to the tax code that could offer the greatest benefit to businesses.Two weeks after the House adopted a sprawling package of tax cuts, Senate Republicans on Monday unveiled their legislative vision proposing a series of tweaks that would primarily enhance the benefits provided to businesses.The legislative text released by the Senate Finance Committee mirrors in broad strokes the effort the House adopted. Both aim to extend a set of tax cuts on individuals and corporations that will soon expire, which President Trump signed into law during his first term and has pushed to expand in his second.But the Senate tax proposal — just one piece of a much larger domestic policy bill — is not identical to the approach that House Republicans clinched late last month. In short, the Senate measure offers bigger tax benefits for corporations as well as older Americans. It would also change the way that party lawmakers aim to deliver on Mr. Trump’s promises to end taxes on tips and overtime.The tweaks could carry vast implications for millions of families and business owners, as Republicans continue to calibrate a costly bill that could alter the trajectory of the economy and shape the nation’s financial health for generations.Here are some of the changes to individuals’ and businesses’ taxes under consideration in the Senate.More generous corporate tax breaksIn a major win for businesses, Senate Republicans proposed to make permanent a set of generous deductions for research and development and other expenses, including machinery purchases. The House proposed to extend these measures, which were set to expire at the end of the year, but only on a temporary basis, as Republicans in the chamber looked for ways to shave costs from their already expensive legislation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Democrats Hate Trump’s Policy Bill, but Love Some of Its Tax Cuts

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    There’s an undercurrent of Democratic support for elements of President Trump’s tax agenda, a dynamic that Republicans are trying to exploit as they make the case for enactment of their sprawling domestic legislation.Democrats have no shortage of criticism for the massive Republican policy bill winding its way through Congress carrying President Trump’s agenda. It would cost too much, they contend, rip health coverage and food assistance away from too many people and strip vital support from clean energy companies.When it comes to some of the tax cuts in the bill, however, Democrats have been less resistant. Some of them concede that they would support many of those provisions if they were not rolled into the larger piece of legislation. In recent weeks, they have taken pains to demonstrate that support.Last month, Senator Jacky Rosen, Democrat of Nevada, successfully moved to have the Senate unanimously approve a version of Mr. Trump’s “no tax on tips” proposal. While the effort was almost entirely symbolic — under the Constitution, the House must originate tax measures — it was still an opportunity for Democrats to go on the record backing a campaign promise of Mr. Trump’s that is broadly popular with the public.“I am not afraid to embrace a good idea, wherever it comes from,” Ms. Rosen said on the Senate floor at the time.The undercurrent of Democratic support for elements of the Republican tax agenda reflects the political potency of some of Mr. Trump’s campaign promises, even those that have been derided by tax policy experts. It also suggests that temporary provisions in the Republican bill, like exempting tips and overtime pay from the income tax, could ultimately become long-term features of the tax code.And it helps to explain why Mr. Trump and Republicans chose to wrap their policy agenda into one huge bill. By pairing the palatable tax cuts — including an extension of tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year — with less savory measures, like Medicaid cuts, Republicans can make the political case that anyone who fails to support the bill is voting for a tax increase.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Republican Agenda Hits Familiar Obstacle: State and Local Taxes

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    A small group of Republicans is threatening to torpedo President Trump’s agenda over the state and local tax deduction, long a headache for both parties.It was perhaps inevitable that the Republican effort to pass a vast fiscal package this year would, at some point, get caught up in the thicket of the state and local tax deduction.After all, the deduction, often called SALT, has long had the potential to cause a political standoff. Many G.O.P. lawmakers abhor it and, in 2017, imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes Americans can write off on their federal returns. But to pass a tax bill this year, the party will need the support of a motivated clutch of Republicans who have made lifting that cap the animating promise of their political careers.Those lawmakers, who represent high-tax states like New York and New Jersey where the deduction is cherished, say they are willing to tank the package over the issue. Representative Nick LaLota, Republican of New York, can already visualize voting against the bill.“There’s a green ‘yes’ button and there’s a red ‘no’ button to press. Come time, if there’s not enough SALT in this bill, I’m pressing the red ‘no’ button,” he said. “It is a hill I am willing to stake my entire congressional career on.”Attempts by House Republican leaders to reach a deal with members like Mr. LaLota yielded little progress this week, leaving the issue unresolved as G.O.P. lawmakers prepare to release the first draft of their tax bill next week. Along with Medicaid, the health care program for the poor that Republicans have targeted for cuts, the state and local tax deduction could determine the fate of the entire G.O.P. legislative agenda.That’s because any change to the current $10,000 limit would be incredibly expensive, threatening to swamp the overall Republican budget for tax cuts. Even a relatively modest change, like doubling the cap for married couples, would cost $230 billion over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. More generous alterations along the lines of what New York Republicans have demanded could surpass $1 trillion.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Trump Billionaires Who Run the Economy and the Things They Say

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    “You have to laugh to keep from crying,” one Republican pollster said about recent comments by the billionaires on the stock market, retirement funds and Social Security.Sometimes the billionaires running the federal government sound like they’re talking to other billionaires.“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” President Trump wrote on social media last week, offering a stock tip that appeared aimed at the investor class rather than ordinary Americans watching their plummeting 401(k)s.Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, has said his mother-in-law wouldn’t be worried if she didn’t get her monthly Social Security check. Elon Musk, who is slashing the Social Security Administration’s staff, has called it a “Ponzi scheme.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has asserted that Americans aren’t looking at the “day-to-day fluctuations” in their retirement savings.And if automakers raise their prices because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs? “I couldn’t care less,” the president told Kristen Welker of NBC.Democrats say the comments show how clueless Mr. Trump and his friends are about the lives of most Americans, and that this is what happens when billionaires run the economy. Republicans counter that highlighting the quotes is unfair cherry picking, and that in the long run everyone will benefit from their policies, even if there’s pain now. Psychologists say that extreme wealth does change people and their views of those who have less.Whoever is right, it is safe to say that almost no one thinks the comments have been politically helpful for Mr. Trump, or calming for Americans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More