Sahm, Claudia

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Everybody Loves FRED: How America Fell for a Data Tool

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From Facebook political debates to college classrooms, the St. Louis Fed’s data tool has gained a major following.Fans post about him on social media. Swag bearing his name sells out on the regular. College professors dedicate class sessions and textbook sections to him. Foreign government officials have been known to express jealousy over his skills, and one prominent economist refers to him as a “national treasure.”Meet FRED, a 33-year-old data tool from St. Louis, Mo., and the economics world’s most unlikely celebrity.Even if you have not interacted with FRED yourself, there is a good chance you’ve encountered him without knowing it. The tool’s signature baby blue graphs dot social media and crop up on many of the world’s most popular news websites. (Paul Krugman, an opinion writer for The New York Times, has referred to FRED as “my friend.”)Many people feel that way about FRED. The website had nearly 15 million users last year, and it is on track for even more in 2024, up from fewer than 400,000 as recently as 2009. Their reasons for clicking are diverse: FRED users are coming for freshly released unemployment data, to check in on egg inflation or to find out whether business is booming in Memphis.The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis building.Kate Munsch for The New York TimesThat appeal crosses political lines. Larry Kudlow, who directed the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, has tweeted and retweeted FRED charts. Groups as disparate as the spending-focused Alaskans for a Sustainable Budget and the pro-worker advocacy organization Employ America have used its charts to back up their arguments. It is even occasionally used by professional and White House economists, who tend to have access to sophisticated data tools, for quick charts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Stock Markets Signal Recession Fears. Here’s the Economic Outlook.

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    The economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a downturn since the pandemic recovery began. Now signs of strength contend with shakier readings.The U.S. economy has spent three years defying expectations. It emerged from the pandemic shock more quickly and more powerfully than many experts envisioned. It proved resilient in the face of both inflation and the higher interest rates the Federal Reserve used to combat it. The prospect many forecasters once considered imminent — a recession — looked increasingly like a false alarm.Until now.An unexpectedly weak jobs report on Friday — showing slower hiring in July, and a surprising jump in unemployment — triggered a sell-off in the stock market as investors worried that an economic downturn might be underway after all. By Monday, that decline had turned into a rout, with financial markets tumbling around the world.

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    The number of jobs added in July was the second smallest monthly gain in years.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    The unemployment rate in July rose to the highest level since October 2021.
    Note: Data is seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesSome economists said investors were overreacting to one weak but hardly disastrous report, since many indicators show the economy on fundamentally firm footing.But they said there were also reasons to worry. Historically, increases in joblessness like the one in July — the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021 — have been a reliable indicator of a recession. And even without that precedent, there has been evidence that the labor market is weakening.

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    The Sahm Rule indicator suggests a recession might have already begun.
    Data is seasonally adjusted and shows the change in the U.S. unemployment rate compared with the low point in the previous 12 months. All calculations based on three-month moving average.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More