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    As the Fed Raises Rates, Worries Grow About Corporate Bonds

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    Executives, analysts and bond traders are all wondering if corporate finance is about to unravel as interest rates rise.As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, the corporate bond market, which lends money to many companies, has been hammered particularly hard.The steep rise in interest rates has caused bond values to tumble: From October 2021 to October 2022, an index that tracks investment-grade corporate bonds is down by roughly 20 percent. By some measures, overall bond market losses have been worse than at any time since 1926.Even the price of bonds issued by the highest-rated corporations have cratered this year.The ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade rated U.S. corporate debt, has severely declined.

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisBy The New York TimesThe yield on bonds issued by solid businesses is now about 6 percent, about twice as much as it was a year ago. That number indicates how high of an interest rate rock-solid corporations would have to pay to borrow more money right now; rates are even higher for smaller businesses or those that investors consider risky.Corporate bankruptcies and defaults remain low by historical standards, but a growing number of companies are struggling financially. Businesses in industries like retail, manufacturing and real estate are especially vulnerable because their sales are weak or falling. In many cases, their customers have also been hurt by higher interest rates because the higher borrowing costs have effectively raised the costs of big-tickets items like homes and cars.Until recently, for example, Carvana was a fast growing used car retailer with a soaring stock. The number of cars the company sold fell 8 percent in the third quarter, and its spending on interest payments tripled compared with the same period a year earlier. The interest rate on a big chunk of its debt issued this year that matures in 2030 is 10.25 percent. Its bonds are trading at less than 50 cents to the dollar, suggesting that investors would require Carvana to pay an interest rate of nearly 30 percent if it were to borrow more money for the same amount of time. The company’s stock is down more than 90 percent over the last year.“There’s certainly a lot of headwinds,” Ernest Garcia III, Carvana’s chief executive, said on a conference call with analysts last week. “Recently, we’ve seen car prices depreciate to the tune of give or take 10 percent so far this year, but we’ve also seen interest rates shoot up very rapidly and I think that overall has harmed affordability,” he added, even as he expressed optimism about the company’s ability to weather the financial storm.Carvana, Co. has paid more in interest payments in the last quarter compared to last year and sold fewer cars.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesBefore rates jumped, companies borrowed a ton of money last year, with lower-rated firms selling more new bonds in 2021 than in any other year. But that flow has turned into a trickle as interest rates have risen and investors have grown more discerning about whom they lend money to. Banks are still making more commercial and industrial loans, but they are also becoming more discerning and are charging higher interest rates.Most investors, executives and economists expect a recession or anemic growth next year, which could make doing business, borrowing money and paying off loans even more difficult.What the Fed’s Rate Increases Mean for YouCard 1 of 4A toll on borrowers. More

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    Amid Inflation, Retailers Brace for Strapped Holiday Shoppers

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    Retailers have navigated pandemic closures and supply chain snarls in recent years. But dealing with the fallout from inflation could be an even tougher test.In 2020, it was pandemic closures and social distancing. Last year, it was the supply chain. Now, the problem is demand.For retailers, that may make this holiday season their biggest test yet.The holidays are the most important time of the year for retail. November and December can account for up to a quarter of the annual sales of department stores and specialty retailers. Companies place orders for seasonal and holiday merchandise months in advance so that they have enough stock on hand. The primacy of the holiday season has pretty much held steady, even during the turbulence of the pandemic. Whether through curbside pickup operations or a pivot to more expensive air deliveries during last season’s crunch, retailers still benefited from people ready to spend on all manner of products.Now, as Americans head into the season when they’re prodded to spend with abandon on holiday gifts, they aren’t showing the same willingness to do so.“You’ve had consumers that have had to weather a lot,” said Vivek Pandya, a lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, pointing to higher prices for gas, groceries and everyday services that have defied the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation.Overall consumer demand for everyday goods and services remains robust and prices continue to increase at a faster-than-expected pace, but nearly 60 percent of U.S. shoppers say finances are factoring into their holiday shopping decisions, according to a survey by Sensormatic Solutions released this month. That’s up from 14 percent last year. One in five holiday shoppers will spend less this season because of a changed economic situation, a recent survey from the NPD Group, a marketing research firm, found.This holiday season, retailers “have to think about and pivot a little bit more to win the consumer compared to only thinking about the profit margin from the purchase,” Mr. Pandya said. “Now, with demand being weaker, they really have to go out of their way to advertise to consumers and get consumers with the highest likelihood to spend.”But discounts eat into retailers’ profit margins, and they have been able to employ that strategy only sparingly in recent years. During last year’s holiday season, in particular, retailers recorded bigger margins thanks to supply chain logjams. Inventory was low, and shoppers were clamoring to get their hands on products. The result: fewer discounts.“A lot of that is going to reverse, if not more than reverse, across department stores and specialty apparel,” said David Silverman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings. “Consumers are less compelled to buy, and they’re going to need the call to action.”A difficult holiday season for retailers could lead to restructurings and layoffs in 2023.John Taggart for The New York TimesIt’s a very difficult time for any company that sells things. The Fed has spent this year trying to combat near-record inflation by raising interest rates to tamp down consumer spending. Retailers have too much merchandise that shoppers no longer want. Consumer spending on durable goods has been easing over the past couple of months, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. Many retailers have recently revised their full-year financial outlooks, halted hiring and closed stores.Amazon is freezing corporate hiring for its retail business for the rest of the year. Peloton is laying off about 12 percent of its work force in its fourth round of job cuts this year. FedEx is halting hiring and closing stores as demand falls. Walmart plans to hire fewer seasonal workers this year. The Gap is cutting 500 corporate positions.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    Apple Store in Oklahoma City Becomes Second to Unionize

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    Workers said pay was adequate and benefits were good, but complained that managers’ practices often seemed arbitrary.Apple employees at a store in Oklahoma City have voted to unionize, becoming the second of the company’s roughly 270 U.S. retail stores to do so.The result, announced by the National Labor Relations Board on Friday night, suggests that an initial victory by a union at a store in Towson, Md., in June was not an isolated development in an organizing campaign that dates back to last year.According to the labor board, 56 employees voted in favor of the union and 32 voted against. The workers will be represented by the Communications Workers of America, which has members at AT&T Mobility, Verizon and media companies like The New York Times, and has sought to represent tech-industry workers in recent years.Sara Steffens, the union’s secretary-treasurer, said in a statement that workers at the store, known as the Penn Square location, had faced an aggressive anti-union campaign, but she predicted that “Apple retail workers across the country will continue to organize, especially after this momentous victory.”Apple said in a statement that “we believe the open, direct and collaborative relationship we have with our valued team members is the best way to provide an excellent experience for our customers, and for our teams.”More on Big TechInside Meta’s Struggles: After a rocky year, employees at Meta are expressing skepticism, confusion and frustration over Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the metaverse.A Deal for Twitter?: In a surprise move, Elon Musk has offered to acquire Twitter at his original price of $44 billion, which could bring to an end the acrimonious legal fight between the billionaire and the company.Hiring Freezes: Amazon is halting corporate hiring in its retail business for the rest of the year, joining Meta as the latest tech companies to pull back amid the economic uncertainty.TikTok Nears Deal with U.S.: The Biden administration and the Chinese-owned video app have drafted a preliminary agreement to resolve national security concerns over the platform, but hurdles remain over the terms.In interviews, employees at the store said that they received solid benefits, like health care, stock grants and paid family leave, and that their pay had improved over the past several months. The company recently raised the minimum starting wage at its stores to $22 an hour and said it had increased starting wages by 45 percent in the United States since 2018.But workers complained that supervisors’ decisions about hiring, pay and job assignments were often opaque and said a union would bring greater transparency to their store.Leigha Briscoe, an employee involved in the organizing who works in sales, said employees were given very different tasks during the first year of the pandemic, when they often worked from home, with little explanation for the disparities.“Some people were at home making posters, doing drawing projects, and others were on the phone taking calls eight hours a day,” Ms. Briscoe said. “There was a lack of clarity as to what the plan was.”Workers also cited confusion over how to earn promotions at the store.“Some people have been in their current roles for years trying to get promoted and are not really getting anywhere, but whenever they get feedback on an interview for a promotion what they get is very subjective goals,” said Michael Forsythe, another employee involved in the organizing, who helps oversee the repair room at the store.Mr. Forsythe said workers were sometimes told to work on their “customer focus,” but were not given more concrete suggestions like “I want you to have a three-week average of 80 percent customer satisfaction score.”Mr. Forsythe said the idea of unionizing first occurred to him late last year, after employees across the company had begun to protest management’s plans to bring them back to the office. The protest ballooned into a broader campaign, known as #AppleToo, that sought to highlight a variety of workplace problems, including harassment and pay disparities, and caught Mr. Forsythe’s attention.In April, a store in Atlanta filed a petition for a union election, and Mr. Forsythe and other employees at the Oklahoma City store began to discuss unionization.The Atlanta store later withdrew its petition, as the company announced a raise and highlighted the benefits it offered and the potential costs of unionizing, denting support for the union.But by then, the Oklahoma City store had formed an organizing committee and more employees were expressing interest in a union. The Oklahoma City workers filed their petition in early September.Employees said supervisors had responded to their campaign by holding round-table discussions and one-on-one conversations in which they emphasized the downsides of a union, including the dues that workers would have to pay and the possibility that they could lose benefits during the bargaining process. Supervisors also said having a union would make it harder to change workplace arrangements when they were in need of updating, like during the pandemic, according to these employees.Workers at the Oklahoma City store said their market leader, a manager who oversees several locations, was in their store regularly during the campaign, even though they would typically see him no more than a few times a year.Patrick Hart, an employee at the store who helps customers resolve issues with products, said the impact of the company’s response was limited because many employees did their own research about how joining a union would affect them.“We are all extremely educated people — Apple hires a certain kind of person,” Mr. Hart said. “We know how to look into things.” More

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    Reno Is Booming. Some Workers Feel Left Behind.

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    Companies are flocking to the Nevada city, but the rising cost of housing, gas and groceries is making daily life a struggle for many who work there.As an employee at a UPS warehouse outside Reno, Nev., Christina Pixton spends her nights moving thousands of heavy packages on their way to far-flung locales like San Francisco, Phoenix and Chicago.But the warehouse is not air-conditioned, and one night last month, there was no relief outside, either, with smoke from a California wildfire more than 100 miles away causing hazardous air quality. For Ms. Pixton, who has asthma, the irritation to her lungs was the latest challenge she had to learn to navigate in Reno.These are boom times in and around Reno. Warehousing and casinos have long been the city’s main businesses, and the surge in e-commerce since the start of the pandemic has companies snapping up facilities as fast as they can be built.Yet Reno and the surrounding area have also seen the cost of things like housing, gas and groceries rise, making daily existence in this growing metropolis increasingly difficult for many of the people who live here, like Ms. Pixton.Christina Pixton, a UPS worker, and her husband make six figures combined, but struggle with the daily costs of living. While gas prices have fallen to an average of $3.91 a gallon across the United States and $5.34 in Nevada, the average in Reno is $5.75, according to data from AAA. It costs Ms. Pixton $70 to $80 a week to fill up her Toyota Highlander, she said.In the past five years, home prices in the area have risen 70 percent, according to Zillow. That’s good news for homeowners like Ms. Pixton. The typical home in Reno is worth $568,103, up 10.2 percent over the past year. But average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Reno has increased 10 percent compared with last year and 40 percent from three years ago, according to data from Zumper, which tracks housing data.And while homes and planned communities are being developed where farmland once was, affordable housing has become a much-discussed issue among residents and policymakers. Reno’s City Council approved additional affordable housing projects in March. In neighboring Sparks, Mayor Ed Lawson has pushed for denser development — building up and not just out — and more development on federal lands.Housing developments are popping up all over Reno and the surrounding area.Other changes are affecting the way of life in Reno. By the time Ms. Pixton, 37, wants to go shopping after her shift ends around 11 p.m., stores that were once open are now closed after scaling back their hours during the pandemic. When she does make it to Walmart or Target, she often finds scant offerings on the shelves because of continuing supply chain issues and the fact that the Walmart, one of the few locations for miles, draws people from neighboring cities.In a city whose economy is partly driven by getting goods to people across the country expeditiously, Ms. Pixton is left scrambling to find Uncrustables frozen sandwiches for her two sons and the right brand of dog food for the family’s Labrador retriever.“This isn’t a sustainable pattern,” said Ms. Pixton, whose husband works as a foreman at an HVAC company. “We make six figures, and we’re still stuck in this struggling pattern.”In May 2021, Ms. Pixton received a raise to $19 an hour, up from $16. It was a market-rate adjustment that UPS put in place across the country to stay competitive when hiring and retaining workers.But in January, it went back down to $16. As a union steward, Ms. Pixton found herself telling other workers the bad news. Fifteen people quit that week, she said.“It’s been quite hellish,” Ms. Pixton said. “It was not a completely livable salary, but it was something where we could struggle and not have to get a second job.”A spokesman for UPS said that, starting on Oct. 2, another market-rate adjustment brought hourly pay for part-time workers back to $19 an hour.The area offers plenty of affordable land for warehouses, along with access to an interstate and an international airport.In recent years, e-commerce companies have flooded the market. The Reno-Sparks area, with a population of about half a million, ticks a lot of boxes for companies seeking to expand back-end operations. There’s no state income tax, cheap land is available, there’s access to a main interstate and an international airport, and it’s close to California, whose huge economy and millions of people are significant draws for consumer companies looking to easily connect with their customers.In 2014, when Elon Musk came to Nevada to celebrate the opening of Tesla’s giant Gigafactory warehouse, meant to build batteries for his company’s electric vehicles, he encouraged other executives to follow.“What the people of Nevada have created is a state where you can be very agile, where you can do things quickly and get things done,” Mr. Musk said at the time, standing among the state’s legislators.And follow they did. Chewy, Amazon, Thrive Market and Apple have opened or expanded warehouses in the area over the past decade. Third-party logistics companies like OnTrac and Stord have also propped up new facilities in town.Reno’s highways and back roads are dotted with “Now Hiring” billboards.Reno has just a 0.5 percent vacancy rate for warehouses, according to data from the real estate service firm CBRE. About 8.8 million square feet is under construction in the Reno-Sparks area, according to CBRE, and about 80 percent of it is already leased.“We were a good market on a great trajectory averaging four million square feet, probably going to five,” said Eric Bennett, senior vice president of CBRE, which helps lease space to companies. “The pandemic obviously increased the absorption.”Some of these companies have set up their own distribution channels to get their products where they need to go. Others use UPS. All of them need hundreds of people to complete the strenuous work of moving their goods through the facilities and getting them to consumers.“Now Hiring” billboards dot Reno’s interstate and back roads. A chocolate factory was willing to pay as much as $25 an hour. A sign outside a Petco warehouse says a starting salary could be as high as $22 an hour. Hidden Valley Ranch’s plant says its starting hourly wage is $21, with other benefits including a 401(k), paid time off, and health care with dental and vision. Many retailers like Walmart are also trying to attract seasonal workers.Those opportunities are siphoning off potential UPS workers and creating more manual labor for those who remain, said Ross Kinson, a business agent for the local Teamsters.Ross Kinson, a business agent for the local Teamsters, said the increased competition for workers had left some UPS shifts short staffed.Workers like Ms. Pixton.Like many in Reno, she is a California transplant. She moved from Chico with her now-husband, John, in 2008, when Reno was reeling from the housing crisis. Casinos filed for bankruptcy. New construction ground to a halt. She worked in the medical and fast food industries before turning to warehouses.She started at UPS in 2018, attracted by the health care benefits and pension package, and initially made about $13 an hour. She works part time, usually 28 to 32 hours per week. Even though other companies have offered higher wages, she has stayed at UPS because the health benefits cover her children and her pension will vest in about a year.Ms. Pixton has stayed with UPS because of the health care benefits that cover her sons.When the pandemic hit, she felt the impact of millions of stuck-at-home shoppers buying all kinds of merchandise. Before Covid, about 70,000 packages would flow through her hub on a normal summer evening. During the pandemic summer of 2020, that number rose as high as 240,000, though it’s now around 115,000 to 140,000 packages a night.“We’re handling the most amount of packages of any shift because we are getting all of the inbound local businesses. We’re getting the transfers from Sacramento and Oakland and Salt Lake City,” she said. “We’ll get all inbound stuff from other states and have our outbound stuff as well.”Six people are considered a skeleton crew in her department, but Ms. Pixton said that often only three or four were working.As the holiday season approaches, UPS says it plans to hire about 100,000 workers, and is speeding up the process by eliminating interviews and allowing candidates to apply online. At the hub where Ms. Pixton works, UPS is looking to add 400 workers.UPS plans to add seasonal workers for the holidays and has been advertising on online job boards.The current contract that UPS has with the Teamsters went into place in 2018 and expires in 2023. Mr. Kinson said the union would push to formalize language regarding the market-rate wage adjustment for part-time workers for the next contract.“We’d negotiate on good faith,” a UPS spokesman, Glenn Zaccara, said. “The wages they are receiving is industry-leading.”Reno is known for its casinos, but warehouses have long been an economic engine as well.But in a city like Reno that has seen rapid growth, workers argue that the terms of the contract haven’t kept up with reality.“In this area it’s got to be $19 an hour,” Mr. Kinson said. “It has to be or it won’t work.”Loni Goddard works at Kerala Ayurveda, a wellness company, and rents an apartment in Reno. In 2020, her one-bedroom apartment cost $950 with internet and cable. When she re-signed her lease in April, the rent rose to $1,490 — not including internet and cable.“During the pandemic, everyone was getting temporary raises in Reno,” Ms. Goddard said. “At the beginning of 2022, most or all of the raises disappeared and so did the people.”At her UPS job, Ms. Pixton is bracing for the holiday rush. But, she noted, every day has essentially become peak season, considering how much work there is and how few people there are to do it. And while she wishes that more people would join UPS to alleviate some of her workload, she understands why some look elsewhere for employment.“If you’re making less than what you’re paying in gas,” she said, “what’s the point of going?” More

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    Retailers Stumble Adjusting to More Selective Shoppers

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    In earnings reports this week, companies showed it has been a struggle to adapt to a consumer mind-set that is vastly different from what it was during much of the pandemic.This hasn’t been the year retailers planned for.After two years of navigating the pandemic — which brought record online sales and shoppers willing to buy all manners of items, to the point that the global supply chain became strained — executives knew a new normal would take shape.Sales might slow, the thinking went, but people would still want TVs, fashionable dresses and throw pillows. So, with supply chain issues in mind, companies stocked up. But this spring it became clear that those items weren’t selling quickly enough. As people watched the prices of food and gas rise, their spending became more selective, leaving retailers with shelves of inventory they couldn’t get rid of.The magnitude of the miscalculation was crystallized this week in a batch of quarterly earnings from major retailers like Walmart and Target, which showed a mix of declining sales of discretionary goods and lower profits. A number revised their guidance, lowering expectations for both sales and profits for the rest of the year. A glut of inventory weighed on companies’ balance sheets: Inventory at Walmart rose 25 percent from this time last year. At Target, it increased 36 percent. And Kohl’s said inventory was up 48 percent. “Since our last earnings call in May, a weakening environment, high inflation and dampened consumer spending are having broad implications across much of retail, especially in discretionary categories like apparel,” Michelle Gass, the chief executive of Kohl’s, said on a call with analysts. “Given our penetration in these categories, this is disproportionately impacting Kohl’s.”Taken together, the results show that the robust sales retailers grew accustomed to during the course of the pandemic have ceased — and the consumer landscape that awaits may be more austere than what they prepared for. (There were exceptions. Home Depot, for instance, said sales were still strong, driven by home improvement projects.) On earnings calls, executives said lower- to middle-income consumers were the most hesitant to spend. Stores are responding by pushing more discounts and highlighting private-label brand to shoppers, and, in some cases, canceling billions of dollars’ worth of orders with vendors. It remains to be seen which strategies will be most effective.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5Inflation F.A.Q.What is inflation? More