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    What Is a Trade Deal? Trump Takes an Expansive View.

    The president is deploying the word “deal” liberally, using the term to describe all kinds of trade arrangements, some very limited or one-sided.The Trump administration is seeking “deals” with countries around the globe, telling major trading partners that it is open for negotiations before higher tariffs kick in on Aug. 1.But what constitutes a trade deal these days has become a tricky question. For the president, a trade deal seems to be pretty much anything he wants it to be.While traditional trade deals run into the hundreds of pages and take years to negotiate, Mr. Trump and his advisers have been using the term to refer to much more limited arrangements. That includes the framework deal announced with Britain in May, which was only a few pages long and included many promises that still need to be negotiated.The president also used the “trade deal” term for the handshake agreement announced with Vietnam last week. In a post on Truth Social, he said it would be “a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries” and bring some tariffs on Vietnamese products down to 20 percent. But since then, neither country has yet publicly released any text or fact sheets describing what has actually been agreed upon.The president has also recently taken to referring to the trade truce his officials made with China in June as a “trade deal,” even though the agreement constituted only an agreement by the two governments to roll back the tariffs and other retaliatory measures they had taken against each other in recent months. A trade deal typically makes changes to the rules of trade — but this truce just returned the relationship to the status quo.In a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Trump also used the term “deal” to refer to one-sided arrangements that other countries had not consented to at all: the letters that he has been sending via his social media account informing governments of new tariff rates on their exports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Big Policy Bill Puts U.S. on Perilous Fiscal Path

    Among the most expensive pieces of legislation in years, the Republican legislation could reshape the country’s finances for a generation.Washington has not exactly won a reputation for fiscal discipline over the last few decades, as both Republicans and Democrats passed bills that have, bit by bit, degraded the nation’s finances.But the legislation that Republicans passed through the Senate on Tuesday stands apart in its harm to the budget, analysts say. Not only did an initial analysis show it adding at least $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next 10 years — making it among the most expensive bills in a generation — but it would also reduce the amount of tax revenue the country collects for decades. Such a shortfall could begin a seismic shift in the nation’s fiscal trajectory and raise the risk of a debt crisis.The threat is a reflection of the fact that Senate Republicans have voted to make tax cuts that the party first passed in 2017 a permanent feature of the tax code. That means the growth in the country’s debt, already at levels economists find alarming, would only accelerate as the bill shaves down the country’s main source of money.“We are looking at the most expensive piece of legislation probably since the 1960s,” said Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. “The danger is that Congress is piling trillions of new borrowing on top of deficits that are already leaping.”Historically, lawmakers have been unable to make such a large change in the country’s finances without bipartisan support, helping contain how much debt is added at a time.That is because reconciliation, the special legislative procedure that Republicans used to avoid the filibuster in the Senate and pass the bill along party lines, has long included the requirement that bills cannot add to the debt for more than a decade. But Republicans decided to disregard that rule, relying on an accounting gimmick to argue that the $3.8 trillion cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts is actually zero and therefore they can continue indefinitely.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    House Policy Bill Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Debt, Swamping Economic Gains

    The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to the latest dour report card for the president’s signature legislation.House Republicans’ sprawling package to cut taxes and slash federal safety-net programs would add about $3.4 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan congressional analysts, who reported on Tuesday that the minor gains in economic growth under the bill would not offset its full fiscal impact.The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to yet another dour report card for the president’s signature legislation, which passed the House last month but now faces the prospect of significant revisions to its core components in the Senate.In its current form, the House Republican bill would extend and expand a set of expiring tax cuts enacted by President Trump during his first term. It would pay for some of those expensive components with deep cuts to federal anti-poverty programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.The C.B.O. report issued on Tuesday sought to project the ways the bill would interact with federal spending and the U.S. economy, building on its earlier finding that the House-passed measure carried a roughly $2.4 trillion price tag.The nonpartisan analysts found that the House approach, if signed into law, would deliver a 0.09 percent boost to annual growth rate in the nation’s gross domestic product in the first few years after enactment, compared to current projections.The budget office said that lower taxes would spur some American families and businesses to spend and invest more. But it also determined that the uptick in economic activity would not be sufficient to cover the costs of the legislation. Even after factoring in spending cuts, the proposal would still add nearly $2.8 trillion to federal deficits over the next 9 years, according to the official tally from C.B.O. The figure grows to about $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Senate Republicans Propose Key Tax Tweaks to House Bill

    Party lawmakers proposed changes to the tax code that could offer the greatest benefit to businesses.Two weeks after the House adopted a sprawling package of tax cuts, Senate Republicans on Monday unveiled their legislative vision proposing a series of tweaks that would primarily enhance the benefits provided to businesses.The legislative text released by the Senate Finance Committee mirrors in broad strokes the effort the House adopted. Both aim to extend a set of tax cuts on individuals and corporations that will soon expire, which President Trump signed into law during his first term and has pushed to expand in his second.But the Senate tax proposal — just one piece of a much larger domestic policy bill — is not identical to the approach that House Republicans clinched late last month. In short, the Senate measure offers bigger tax benefits for corporations as well as older Americans. It would also change the way that party lawmakers aim to deliver on Mr. Trump’s promises to end taxes on tips and overtime.The tweaks could carry vast implications for millions of families and business owners, as Republicans continue to calibrate a costly bill that could alter the trajectory of the economy and shape the nation’s financial health for generations.Here are some of the changes to individuals’ and businesses’ taxes under consideration in the Senate.More generous corporate tax breaksIn a major win for businesses, Senate Republicans proposed to make permanent a set of generous deductions for research and development and other expenses, including machinery purchases. The House proposed to extend these measures, which were set to expire at the end of the year, but only on a temporary basis, as Republicans in the chamber looked for ways to shave costs from their already expensive legislation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Democrats Hate Trump’s Policy Bill, but Love Some of Its Tax Cuts

    There’s an undercurrent of Democratic support for elements of President Trump’s tax agenda, a dynamic that Republicans are trying to exploit as they make the case for enactment of their sprawling domestic legislation.Democrats have no shortage of criticism for the massive Republican policy bill winding its way through Congress carrying President Trump’s agenda. It would cost too much, they contend, rip health coverage and food assistance away from too many people and strip vital support from clean energy companies.When it comes to some of the tax cuts in the bill, however, Democrats have been less resistant. Some of them concede that they would support many of those provisions if they were not rolled into the larger piece of legislation. In recent weeks, they have taken pains to demonstrate that support.Last month, Senator Jacky Rosen, Democrat of Nevada, successfully moved to have the Senate unanimously approve a version of Mr. Trump’s “no tax on tips” proposal. While the effort was almost entirely symbolic — under the Constitution, the House must originate tax measures — it was still an opportunity for Democrats to go on the record backing a campaign promise of Mr. Trump’s that is broadly popular with the public.“I am not afraid to embrace a good idea, wherever it comes from,” Ms. Rosen said on the Senate floor at the time.The undercurrent of Democratic support for elements of the Republican tax agenda reflects the political potency of some of Mr. Trump’s campaign promises, even those that have been derided by tax policy experts. It also suggests that temporary provisions in the Republican bill, like exempting tips and overtime pay from the income tax, could ultimately become long-term features of the tax code.And it helps to explain why Mr. Trump and Republicans chose to wrap their policy agenda into one huge bill. By pairing the palatable tax cuts — including an extension of tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year — with less savory measures, like Medicaid cuts, Republicans can make the political case that anyone who fails to support the bill is voting for a tax increase.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Officials Unveil Budget Cuts to Aid for Health, Housing and Research

    The new blueprint shows that a vast array of education, health, housing and labor programs would be hit, including aid for college and cancer research.The Trump administration on Friday unveiled fuller details of its proposal to slash about $163 billion in federal spending next fiscal year, offering a more intricate glimpse into the vast array of education, health, housing and labor programs that would be hit by the deepest cuts.The many spending reductions throughout the roughly 1,220-page document and agency blueprints underscored President Trump’s desire to foster a vast transformation in Washington. His budget seeks to reduce the size of government and its reach into Americans lives, including services to the poor.The new proposal reaffirmed the president’s recommendation to set federal spending levels at their lowest in modern history, as the White House first sketched out in its initial submission to Congress transmitted in early May. But it offered new details about the ways in which Mr. Trump hoped to achieve the savings, and the many functions of government that could be affected as a result.The White House budget is not a matter of law. Ultimately, it is up to Congress to determine the budget, and in recent years it has routinely discarded many of the president’s proposals. Lawmakers are only starting to embark on the annual process, with government funding set to expire at the end of September.The updated budget reiterated the president’s pursuit of deep reductions for nearly every major federal agency, reserving its steepest cuts for foreign aid, medical research, tax enforcement and a slew of anti-poverty programs, including rental assistance. The White House restated its plan to seek a $33 billion cut at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, for example, and another $33 billion reduction at the Department of Health and Human Services.Targeting the Education Department, the president again put forward a roughly $12 billion cut, seeking to eliminate dozens of programs while unveiling new changes to Pell grants, which help low-income students pay for college.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Pivoting From Tax Cuts to Tariffs, Trump Ignores Economic Warning Signs

    One day after House Republicans approved an expensive package of tax cuts that rattled financial markets, President Trump pivoted back to his other signature policy priority, unveiling a battery of tariff threats that further spooked investors and raised the prospects of higher prices on American consumers.For a president who has fashioned himself as a shrewd steward of the economy, the decision to escalate his global trade war on Friday appeared curious and costly. It capped off a week that saw Mr. Trump ignore repeated warnings that his agenda could worsen the nation’s debt, harm many of his own voters, hurt the finances of low-income families and contribute far less in growth than the White House contends.The tepid market response to the president’s economic policy approach did little to sway Mr. Trump, who chose on Friday to revive the uncertainty that has kept businesses and consumers on edge. The president threatened 50 percent tariffs on the European Union, and a 25 percent tariff on Apple. Other tech companies, he said, could face the same rate.Since taking office, Mr. Trump has raced to enact his economic vision, aiming to pair generous tax cuts with sweeping deregulation that he says will expand America’s economy. He has fashioned his steep, worldwide tariffs as a political cudgel that will raise money, encourage more domestic manufacturing and improve U.S. trade relationships.But for many of his signature policies to succeed, Mr. Trump will have to prove investors wrong, particularly those who lend money to the government by buying its debt.So far, bond markets are not buying his approach. Where Mr. Trump sees a “golden age” of growth, investors see an agenda that comes with more debt, higher borrowing costs, inflation and an economic slowdown. Investors who once viewed government debt as a relatively risk-free investment are now demanding that the United States pay much more to those who lend America money.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Republican Agenda Hits Familiar Obstacle: State and Local Taxes

    A small group of Republicans is threatening to torpedo President Trump’s agenda over the state and local tax deduction, long a headache for both parties.It was perhaps inevitable that the Republican effort to pass a vast fiscal package this year would, at some point, get caught up in the thicket of the state and local tax deduction.After all, the deduction, often called SALT, has long had the potential to cause a political standoff. Many G.O.P. lawmakers abhor it and, in 2017, imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes Americans can write off on their federal returns. But to pass a tax bill this year, the party will need the support of a motivated clutch of Republicans who have made lifting that cap the animating promise of their political careers.Those lawmakers, who represent high-tax states like New York and New Jersey where the deduction is cherished, say they are willing to tank the package over the issue. Representative Nick LaLota, Republican of New York, can already visualize voting against the bill.“There’s a green ‘yes’ button and there’s a red ‘no’ button to press. Come time, if there’s not enough SALT in this bill, I’m pressing the red ‘no’ button,” he said. “It is a hill I am willing to stake my entire congressional career on.”Attempts by House Republican leaders to reach a deal with members like Mr. LaLota yielded little progress this week, leaving the issue unresolved as G.O.P. lawmakers prepare to release the first draft of their tax bill next week. Along with Medicaid, the health care program for the poor that Republicans have targeted for cuts, the state and local tax deduction could determine the fate of the entire G.O.P. legislative agenda.That’s because any change to the current $10,000 limit would be incredibly expensive, threatening to swamp the overall Republican budget for tax cuts. Even a relatively modest change, like doubling the cap for married couples, would cost $230 billion over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. More generous alterations along the lines of what New York Republicans have demanded could surpass $1 trillion.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More