Trump, Donald J

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U.S. Takes Aim at China’s Production of Essential Chips

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The older-style chips are crucial for a wide array of appliances and other machinery, including weaponry.The Biden administration on Monday initiated a trade investigation into China’s production of older types of computer chips that are integral for cars, dishwashers, telecom networks and military weaponry.The probe could ultimately result in tariffs or other measures to block Chinese chips from entering U.S. markets, though the decision of which, if any approach to take would fall to the incoming Trump administration.In industry after industry — from steel and ships to solar panels and electric vehicles — China has pumped money into building world-class manufacturing facilities, creating a surge of low-cost products that ultimately flood global markets. American companies, along with firms in many other countries, finding themselves unable to compete, have shut down, leaving Chinese firms largely in control of the global market.United States officials have been worrying that the semiconductor industry could be next. Chinese companies have been massively ramping up their production of chips, particularly the older types of semiconductors that continue to power a wide array of machinery and appliances. China is building more new semiconductor factories than any other country, a development that American officials argue threatens the viability of chip plants in Europe and the United States.Katherine Tai, the United States Trade Representative, said in a call on Sunday that China’s policies were enabling its companies to rapidly expand and to “offer artificially lower-priced chips that threaten to significantly harm, and potentially eliminate, their market-oriented competition.”That resulted in supply chains that “are more vulnerable and subject to supply chain choke points that can be used to economically coerce other countries,” she said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How a Government Shutdown Could Affect the Economy

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    A federal government shutdown probably wouldn’t be enough to derail the solid U.S. economy. But it could inject more uncertainty into an already murky economic outlook.Funding for the federal government will lapse at the end of Friday if Congress doesn’t reach a deal to extend it. It is still possible that legislators will act in time to prevent a shutdown, or will restore funding quickly enough to avoid significant disruptions and minimize any economic impact.But if the standoff lasts beyond the weekend, most federal offices will not open Monday, and hundreds of thousands of government employees will be told not to work. Others will be required to work without pay until the government reopens.For those workers and their families, the consequences could be serious, especially if the impasse drags on. Federal law guarantees that government workers will eventually receive back pay, but that may not come in time for those living paycheck to paycheck. And the back-pay provisions don’t apply to consultants or contractors. During the last government shutdown — a partial lapse in funding in late 2018 and early 2019 — federal workers lined up at food pantries after going weeks without pay.For the economy as a whole, the effects of a shutdown are likely to be more modest. Many of the most important government programs, like Social Security and Medicare, would not be affected, and government services that are deemed “essential,” such as air traffic control and aviation security, can continue at least temporarily. Federal workers who put off purchases are likely to make them once their paychecks restart.Forecasters at Goldman Sachs estimate that a shutdown would exert a small but measurable drag on the economy, reducing quarterly economic growth by about 0.15 percentage points for every week the lapse in funding continues. Most of that toll, though not all, would reverse in the next quarter. Other forecasters have released similar estimates.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Where Does a ‘Remarkable’ U.S. Economy Go From Here?

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    America’s economy is far outstripping its peers, but there are serious risks, including from the president-elect.The U.S. economy is pulling ahead of its global peers. Inflation is moderating, and the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates.Add in a decrease in unlawful southern border crossings and revved-up domestic production in several critical industries and they amount to a rough list of Donald J. Trump’s campaign promises.It’s a list of economic wins that Mr. Trump is inheriting in large part because of policies that the Federal Reserve and Biden administration have pursued in recent years.The economy is doing better than most economists predicted a few years ago. Forecasters widely warned that the Fed would seriously harm the economy as it tried to control runaway inflation by sharply raising interest rates in 2022 and 2023. Instead, price increases have come down substantially without a broader implosion. The unemployment rate is low. Consumers are spending.“The U.S. economy has just been remarkable,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a news conference on Wednesday, after the Fed cut rates for a third time this year.But a variety of risks — some sheer happenstance, some floated by Mr. Trump — could interfere with that rosy outcome just as the newly re-elected president takes office.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Tech Makes an Economic Case for Skilled Immigrants. Will Trump Bite?

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    Silicon Valley hopes that tech giants like Elon Musk could help to push the incoming Trump administration toward offering more visas to highly skilled foreign workers.Aaron Levie, the chief executive of the cloud software company Box, said he was more hopeful than he had been at any point in the past 15 years that America could soon accept more highly educated immigrants — the sort of skilled foreigners he hires as software engineers.Mr. Levie recently posted on X that America’s immigration policies for high-skilled workers are “not responsive to the market,” and that Elon Musk, with his position in president-elect Donald J. Trump’s orbit, could fix them.“I agree,” Mr. Musk replied. The thread quickly filled with other tech workers and executives sharing stories of trying to get visas for themselves and their employees.Welcoming more high-skilled immigrants is “one of the highest leverage — maybe the highest leverage — thing you could do to make sure that America stays at the forefront,” Mr. Levie said in an interview.The technology industry considers that argument about economic competitiveness as one that could persuade Mr. Trump to allow increased levels of immigration for highly skilled workers. But the industry’s optimism clashes with past experience: The president-elect did not expand skill-based legal immigration during his first term in office. Instead, his immigration officials curbed visa programs for educated workers by overseeing them more stringently.And while some in Silicon Valley and corporate America are hoping that this time will be different, Washington policy analysts, lawyers and visa holders themselves are less certain.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    High on Hope, Wall St. Hears What It Wants From Trump

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    Investors and executives are often emphasizing what they like in the president-elect’s agenda, while dismissing what they don’t as mere posturing.If you ask many a Wall Street investor, tax cuts are poised for extension, deregulation is all but guaranteed, immigration reform for high-skill workers has real potential and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might just cut the deficit.Tariffs, by contrast, are a mere bargaining chip. Immigrant expulsions will probably be limited, and there is no way on earth that the incoming White House would meddle with the independent Federal Reserve.Hope has been riding high in financial markets and corporate boardrooms in the month-and-change since the presidential election. But it is often predicated on a bet: Many of the optimists are choosing to believe that the Trump promises they want to see fulfilled are going to become reality, while dismissing those they think would be bad for the economy as mere posturing.“A lot of people are using deductive reasoning and concluding that he’ll only do things that are good for the market,” said Julia Coronado, founder of the research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. “They can ride this wave of hope-ium through the end of January,” she said, adding that much of it “feels delusional.”There’s a reason for the hope: Many investors believe that markets themselves will act as a bulwark against extreme proposals.Mr. Trump does care enormously about financial markets, and particularly the stock market. He points to it as a marker of success in a way that few if any presidents have ever done. And during his first term in office, he sometimes backed away from more extreme plans — like an idea to oust the Fed chair — when they caused markets to plummet.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Jerome Powell and the Fed Head for Another Collision with Trump

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    Rates may not come down as much or as quickly as had been expected, just as Trump — a self-declared “low-rate guy” — returns to the White House.Inside the halls of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters overlooking Constitution Avenue in Washington D.C., casual mentions of the incoming Trump administration are cautious and infrequent. That’s by design.Donald J. Trump had a fraught relationship with the politically independent Fed during his first term. The president wanted central bankers to lower interest rates more aggressively and faster than they thought was economically appropriate. When officials refused to comply, he blasted them as “boneheads” and an “enemy.” He flirted with trying to fire Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. He tried (and failed) to appoint loyalists to central bank leadership roles.As the Fed enters a new Trump era with interest rates higher than they were at any point in his first term, tensions seem poised to escalate once again — and America’s central bank is on high alert.Fed analysts try to avoid casually discussing tariffs in email or Microsoft Teams meetings, wary that the information could become public and make the Fed look anti-Trump, according to one staff economist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. Hallway chatter has taken a negative tone but is often studiously generic and apolitical, according to people familiar with the mood inside the building who also requested anonymity. And while Fed officials and economists have had to begin to consider what Mr. Trump’s promised policies might do to growth and inflation, they have avoided publicly speculating.Central bankers are, in effect, keeping their heads down to stay out of the limelight. But try as they might, they appear destined for another crash course with Mr. Trump.The president-elect promised “interest rates cuts the likes of which you have never seen before” while campaigning. Fed officials have been cutting rates since September and are on course to lower them further as inflation cools, but they are unlikely to reduce them as much as Mr. Trump is hoping.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    See How Much NYC’s Congestion Pricing Plan Would Cost You

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    Most drivers will begin paying new congestion tolls on Jan. 5 to reach the heart of Manhattan, if all goes as planned. The fees are meant to relieve some of the world’s worst gridlock and pollution while raising billions of dollars for important upgrades to New York City’s subways and buses. Officials also hope to […] More

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    Trump Backs a Longshoremen’s Union That Supported Him

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump is supporting the International Longshoremen’s Association, which could strike soon if it doesn’t reach a deal on automation with employers.Leaders of some labor unions tried to establish good relations with Donald J. Trump before the election — and for one of them, that effort may already be paying off.President-elect Trump lent his support on Thursday to the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts. Contract negotiations between the union and employers have broken down over the use of port machinery that can move cargo without human involvement. The I.L.A. opposes it, believing it reduces jobs, but the employers, mainly large shipping companies, have said that the equipment moves goods more cheaply and efficiently.Writing on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he had met with I.L.A. leaders and that he sympathized with the union’s fears.“I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”The union suspended a short strike in October after securing a large wage increase, and agreed to keep negotiating with port operators until Jan. 15 on other parts of the contract, including provisions on how much automated machinery can be used.Mr. Trump won a second presidential term with the support of many union members, and he has vowed to protect American workers. And while it is unclear how much he will do to help the labor movement broadly, his backing of the I.L.A. suggests he could strengthen the hand of unions that have courted him.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More