Trump, Donald J

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    Trump’s Big Policy Bill Puts U.S. on Perilous Fiscal Path

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    Among the most expensive pieces of legislation in years, the Republican legislation could reshape the country’s finances for a generation.Washington has not exactly won a reputation for fiscal discipline over the last few decades, as both Republicans and Democrats passed bills that have, bit by bit, degraded the nation’s finances.But the legislation that Republicans passed through the Senate on Tuesday stands apart in its harm to the budget, analysts say. Not only did an initial analysis show it adding at least $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next 10 years — making it among the most expensive bills in a generation — but it would also reduce the amount of tax revenue the country collects for decades. Such a shortfall could begin a seismic shift in the nation’s fiscal trajectory and raise the risk of a debt crisis.The threat is a reflection of the fact that Senate Republicans have voted to make tax cuts that the party first passed in 2017 a permanent feature of the tax code. That means the growth in the country’s debt, already at levels economists find alarming, would only accelerate as the bill shaves down the country’s main source of money.“We are looking at the most expensive piece of legislation probably since the 1960s,” said Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank. “The danger is that Congress is piling trillions of new borrowing on top of deficits that are already leaping.”Historically, lawmakers have been unable to make such a large change in the country’s finances without bipartisan support, helping contain how much debt is added at a time.That is because reconciliation, the special legislative procedure that Republicans used to avoid the filibuster in the Senate and pass the bill along party lines, has long included the requirement that bills cannot add to the debt for more than a decade. But Republicans decided to disregard that rule, relying on an accounting gimmick to argue that the $3.8 trillion cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts is actually zero and therefore they can continue indefinitely.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Threat of More Tariffs Slows Trade Deals

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    As America’s largest trading partners race toward deals, they are increasingly worried about being hit with future tariffs on their critical industries.Governments around the globe are racing to negotiate trade deals with the United States in order to forestall President Trump’s punishing tariffs, which could kick in on July 9. But the discussions have been slowed because Mr. Trump has threatened to impose more tariffs even if those deals are in place.Mr. Trump announced what he refers to as “reciprocal tariffs” on April 8, saying they were in response to other countries’ unfair trading practices. But he agreed to pause those levies for 90 days to give countries time to reach trade deals with the United States. Some administration officials recently suggested that the deadline could be extended, but Mr. Trump has signaled that he is ready to slap tariffs on countries he views as uncooperative. “We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday.India, Vietnam, Japan, the European Union, Malaysia and other governments have been working toward deals that could smooth relations with the United States and avoid double-digit tariffs. But the Trump administration has been moving forward with plans to impose another set of tariffs on certain industries that it views as essential to national security, a threat that has foreign leaders worried that there could be more pain ahead.These tariffs are dependent on the outcomes of trade investigations into lumber and timber, copper and critical minerals by the Commerce Department, which are expected to be completed soon and submitted to the White House, according to people familiar with the matter. A determination that imports pose a national security threat would allow the president to issue tariffs on those products in the coming weeks. Investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and electronic devices are also proceeding and could be finished in time for tariffs as early as next month, the people said.Mr. Bessent added that tariffs on imports of items such as lumber were being imposed on a different track from the reciprocal tariffs that were announced in April and are not part of the current round of trade negotiations.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Some Republicans Join Democrats in Unease Over White House Budget Cuts

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    President Trump has sought to claw back funds for public broadcasting and foreign aid, sparking a fierce debate over the power of the purse.A handful of Senate Republicans joined Democrats on Wednesday in sharp questioning of President Trump’s proposed budget cuts, exposing the depth of congressional unease with the White House’s new plan to pare back billions of dollars for foreign aid and public broadcasting.The rare display of bipartisan discord left the fate of that package uncertain at a moment when the Trump administration has signaled that it is willing to circumvent Congress to slash federal spending, potentially touching off a constitutional battle over the power of the purse.The dynamic played out over a tense, roughly three-hour grilling of Russell T. Vought, the White House budget director, who asked lawmakers to approve Mr. Trump’s request to rescind more than $9 billion in enacted funds. The administration has framed the package, unveiled this month, as the first of possibly many that could implement changes identified by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.But Democrats and some Republicans on Wednesday questioned the president’s proposed clawbacks, which passed the House earlier in June. Some lawmakers said the cuts would undermine longtime bipartisan priorities, including a shared desire to preserve local television and radio stations and combat the global AIDS crisis.Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and the chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she worried about the implications for global health, particularly because some of the funding that the president targeted has “saved more than 26 million lives.”Lawmakers from both parties later echoed some of those criticisms, prompting Ms. Collins to conclude the hearing by saying that it showed the “depth of concerns about this rescission from members on both sides of the aisle” with the White House’s plans. A spokesperson for the senator later confirmed that she was drafting an amendment to change the package when it reached the Senate floor.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    White House Faces Risk of Economic Fallout From Iran Strike

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    President Trump, aware of how high gas prices could affect his popularity, demanded on social media that the U.S. “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.”President Trump on Monday began to confront the potential economic blowback from his military strikes on Iran, which threatened to send oil and gas prices soaring at a moment when U.S. consumers are already facing significant financial strains.The mere prospect of rising energy costs appeared to spook even Mr. Trump, who took to social media to push for more domestic drilling while demanding that companies “KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN”; otherwise, they would be “PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”“I’M WATCHING!” the president added.By midday Monday, global oil markets appeared relatively muted, two days after Mr. Trump dispatched U.S. bombers on a mission to disable three Iranian nuclear sites. Prices rose over the weekend before ultimately settling, as Washington — and the rest of the world — braced for the possibility that Tehran may still retaliate.In one worst-case scenario, Iranian leaders could look to shutter or otherwise impede access to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the critical entrance point to the Persian Gulf. The world ships substantial amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas through the passage, so any interruption to commerce could cause energy prices to surge globally.A spike in energy costs could prove especially difficult for American consumers and businesses this summer, given that it could arrive at about the same time that Mr. Trump plans to revive his expansive, steep tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. Many economists expect those levies to push up prices after years of high inflation.In April, the president announced, then suspended, those sky-high duties, seeking to quell a global market meltdown over his disruptive and legally contested campaign to remake global trade. But Mr. Trump has not wavered in his plan to implement the tariffs on July 9, and many economists expect companies — which pay the duties when they source foreign products — to pass the added costs down to their customers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Trump’s Trade War Has Whipsawed the Port of L.A.

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    Normally, the towering green crane in the Everport Terminal at the Port of Los Angeles would be busy unloading hulking container ships. Longshoremen below would flit around in “bomb carts” used to ferry containers from the ship. Big rigs would carry off imported furniture, car parts and clothing to other parts of the country.But on a recent Thursday morning, the 300-foot crane sat idle, a casualty of the tariffs that President Trump has imposed to curb foreign trade. Almost a fifth of the 99 boats that Gene Seroka, the port’s chief executive, had expected to arrive in May were canceled.“It’s a very quiet day,” Mr. Seroka said. “This is the impact that the tariffs have had.”Listen to our reporter’s commentaryAna Swanson visited the Port of Los Angeles last month and found it to be unusually quiet. The job posting board showed 40 percent fewer positions than normal. And the port was running at 70 percent of normal capacity, according to its chief executive.The Port of Los Angeles, along with a nearby facility in Long Beach, makes up a shipping complex that stretches across nearly 75 miles of Southern California shoreline. The ports are a bellwether for trade and the U.S. economy. Together, they move an astonishing 40 percent of the goods that come into the United States via containers. They also account for 30 percent of what the country exports.As Mr. Trump’s chaotic and aggressive tariff strategy has seesawed this year, activity here has, too. That has threatened the livelihood of the roughly 100,000 workers at the port complex and complicated life for the hundreds of thousands of companies that bring goods through the port each year. The trends at the port hint at the pain that will ripple through the broader economy in the coming months, as fewer and higher-priced goods travel from ports and warehouses to American stores and consumers.The ports experienced a surge of activity this year when shippers rushed to bring in goods ahead of tariffs that reached their highest levels in a century. That rush has faded, and trade has become more sluggish. With higher tariffs set to snap back within weeks, both importers and port workers remain cautious, unsure of what their futures will hold.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    House Policy Bill Would Add $3.4 Trillion to Debt, Swamping Economic Gains

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    The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to the latest dour report card for the president’s signature legislation.House Republicans’ sprawling package to cut taxes and slash federal safety-net programs would add about $3.4 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan congressional analysts, who reported on Tuesday that the minor gains in economic growth under the bill would not offset its full fiscal impact.The updated findings from the Congressional Budget Office amounted to yet another dour report card for the president’s signature legislation, which passed the House last month but now faces the prospect of significant revisions to its core components in the Senate.In its current form, the House Republican bill would extend and expand a set of expiring tax cuts enacted by President Trump during his first term. It would pay for some of those expensive components with deep cuts to federal anti-poverty programs, including Medicaid and food stamps.The C.B.O. report issued on Tuesday sought to project the ways the bill would interact with federal spending and the U.S. economy, building on its earlier finding that the House-passed measure carried a roughly $2.4 trillion price tag.The nonpartisan analysts found that the House approach, if signed into law, would deliver a 0.09 percent boost to annual growth rate in the nation’s gross domestic product in the first few years after enactment, compared to current projections.The budget office said that lower taxes would spur some American families and businesses to spend and invest more. But it also determined that the uptick in economic activity would not be sufficient to cover the costs of the legislation. Even after factoring in spending cuts, the proposal would still add nearly $2.8 trillion to federal deficits over the next 9 years, according to the official tally from C.B.O. The figure grows to about $3.4 trillion if the full costs of federal borrowing are included.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Companies Ask Supreme Court to Fast-Track Challenge to Tariffs

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    Two toy manufacturers asked the court to greatly expedite their case, in an unusual request.Two toy manufacturers challenging a major piece of President Trump’s tariffs program asked the Supreme Court on Tuesday to expedite their case and rule that Congress had not authorized the levies.The request was unusual for several reasons. Petitions seeking review ordinarily come from the losing side, but the companies had won in front of a district court judge. They then sought to leapfrog the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which would ordinarily rule before the justices considered whether to grant review. And they asked the justices to move very quickly, asking that they schedule arguments in September or October.All of this suggests that the court is unlikely to agree to hear the case at this stage.The manufacturers — Learning Resources and hand2mind — argued that the law Mr. Trump relied on, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, does not authorize tariffs. Until Mr. Trump acted, their companies’ brief said, “no president had ever invoked I.E.E.P.A. to impose a single tariff or duty on goods in the statute’s nearly 50-year history.”In a separate and broader challenge, the Court of International Trade also ruled against the administration’s tariffs program. A different appeals court, the Federal Circuit, is set to hear arguments in that case next month. Both lower court rulings have been paused, allowing Mr. Trump to press forward with his tariffs.Once the appeals courts have ruled, appeals to the Supreme Court are all but certain, and the justices are quite likely to take up one or both of them.The toy companies seek to use an unusual procedure to bypass the D.C. Circuit, “certiorari before judgment.” The procedure used to be rare, mostly reserved for national crises like President Richard M. Nixon’s refusal to turn over tape recordings to a special prosecutor or President Harry S. Truman’s seizure of the steel industry.Before 2019, the court had not used it for 15 years, according to statistics compiled by Stephen Vladeck, a law professor at Georgetown University. Since then, he found, the court has used it at least 19 times. More

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    Fed’s ‘Wait and See’ Approach Is Intact as New Risks Cloud Economic Outlook

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    The central bank is set to hold interest rates steady for its fourth straight meeting, a pause that could be extended through the summer.Through all the twists and turns of President Trump’s tariffs, a widespread immigration crackdown and the scuffles surrounding the Republican tax and spending bill, the Federal Reserve has stayed steady in its stance that it can go slow in taking action on interest rates.That message holds as officials gather on Tuesday for a two-day meeting, at which they are set to extend a pause in rate cuts that has been in place since January. It is also likely to endure throughout the summer, giving the Fed at least a couple more months before it must make a difficult decision about when and by how much to lower borrowing costs.“As long as the labor market continues to look solid but inflation continues to mainly move sideways, it’s going to be a ‘wait-and-see’ situation,” said Jon Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior adviser to Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair.When the central bank sets monetary policy, it has two goals in mind: keep inflation at 2 percent and ensure that the labor market is healthy. Currently, both aims are in sync.Inflation has stayed remarkably stable in recent months. The latest Consumer Price Index report, released last week, showed price pressures remain well contained. Employers are hiring less than they once did and fewer workers are entering the labor force, but layoffs have yet to rise in a meaningful enough way to lift the unemployment rate.The economy has all the makings of a soft landing, a rare feat in which the central bank tames inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. But such an outcome is not guaranteed. Mr. Trump’s policies have stoked fears that inflation will eventually re-accelerate, growth will slow and the labor market will weaken, forcing officials to make a tough decision about which of their goals to prioritize.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More