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November Jobs Report Shows Gain of 227,000; Unemployment Rises

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Hiring bounced back after disruptions from storms and a major strike.Job creation bounced back in November after disruptions from storms and a major strike, reinforcing a picture of modest employment expansion over the past several months.The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With upward revisions to September and October figures, the three-month average gain is 173,000, slightly higher than the average over the six months before that.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent in October, as fewer people were able to find work. But for those who had jobs, wages jumped more than expected and were 4 percent higher than they were a year earlier.Unemployment rate More

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    For Those in Need of a Job, Landing One Might Still Be a Challenge

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    The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent in October, remains low by historical standards. But under the surface, there are signs that it can be difficult to land a job.The share of unemployed workers finding jobs has been falling, and the average duration of unemployment has been rising — two indications of mounting strain for job seekers.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a steep drop in the job-finding rate in October, extending previous months’ declines. That points to a potentially challenging dynamic: Layoffs remain relatively low, but people who lose their jobs could be struggling to find new ones.The average number of weeks of unemployment also hit a two-and-a-half-year high in October, at 22.9 weeks, up from another recent high of 22.6 weeks in September. In the past few months, more people have been falling into the category of long-term unemployment, typically defined as being out of work for more than six months.A recent downturn in open roles could have been contributing to the strain on job seekers, keeping many unemployed for longer. Available positions in September tumbled to 7.4 million, resembling prepandemic levels.Job openings did tick up in October, surpassing expectations, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released this week. And in a survey conducted last month by the Conference Board, roughly 15 percent of consumers said jobs were hard to get, down from the almost 18 percent who said the same in October, hinting at easing conditions. More

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    October Jobs Report Shows Hiring Slowed Amid Storms and Strikes

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    U.S. payrolls grew by only 12,000 in October, a figure that left markets placid but fueled political contention. Unemployment remained 4.1 percent.Job creation stalled in October, a month battered by strikes and hurricanes, presenting an unclear picture of where the labor market was headed even as overall economic growth remained impressive.Employers added only 12,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, substantially fewer than economists had forecast. The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, remained 4.1 percent.The report is the last before a presidential election in which polls have consistently found the economy to be a top issue for voters, and the low figure supplied a talking point for Republicans. It also strengthened the case for another interest rate cut when Federal Reserve policymakers meet next week.“It’s hard to say, ‘This was a strong report if it were not for the strikes and hurricanes,’” said Oliver Allen, a senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “If the numbers still look like that next month, and we have another step down in revisions, it’s a pretty weak set of prints.”Gains for August and September were revised downward, bringing the three-month average to 104,000 — down from 189,000 over the six months before that.Markets took the muddled data in stride, but the political reaction was fierce, with former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign saying the report was “a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy.”Wages Rise SlightlyYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    In Nevada, Economy Tops Issues as Unemployment Remains High

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    The state is among a handful that will decide the presidential contest, and workers have felt increased prices at the grocery store and gas station.Sold-out shows along the Strip. Crews constructing a course for a major Formula 1 race. A record number of passengers at Harry Reid International Airport.For much of the past year, Las Vegas, the anchor of Nevada’s economy, has watched in delight as visitors have flocked to town for conventions, football games and summer pool parties, further solidifying its rebound from the doldrums after the pandemic shutdowns.But statewide, the economy is still burdened by high unemployment and higher costs of living — twin pocketbook struggles that animate voters here in one of a handful of states expected to decide the November presidential election.And about a quarter of Nevada voters in a New York Times/Siena College poll last month named the economy as their top issue. It was cited nearly twice as often as any other concern, comparable to findings in other swing states.A topic with particular resonance among Nevada workers — eliminating federal taxation on tips — burst into the national discourse after former President Donald J. Trump told a crowd in Las Vegas that he intended to do away with the practice if elected. He was inspired, Mr. Trump has said, by a conversation with a waitress in the city.His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, later endorsed the idea during a campaign stop in Las Vegas, but paired the proposal with a promise to raise the federal minimum wage.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why Low Layoff Numbers Don’t Mean the Labor Market Is Strong

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    Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.As job growth has slowed and unemployment has crept up, some economists have pointed to a sign of confidence among employers: They are, for the most part, holding on to their existing workers.Despite headline-grabbing job cuts at a few big companies, overall layoffs remain below their levels during the strong economy before the pandemic. Applications for unemployment benefits, which drifted up in the spring and summer, have recently been falling.But past recessions suggest that layoff data alone should not offer much comfort about the labor market. Historically, job cuts have come only once an economic downturn was well underway.

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    Layoffs per month
    Data is seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesThe Great Recession, for example, officially began at the end of 2007, after the bursting of the housing bubble and the ensuing mortgage crisis. The unemployment rate began rising in early 2008. But it was not until late 2008 — after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of a global financial crisis — that employers began cutting jobs in earnest.The milder recession in 2001 offers an even clearer example. The unemployment rate rose steadily from 4.3 percent in May to 5.7 percent at the end of the year. But apart from a brief spike in the fall, layoffs hardly rose.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Job Market Shifts to Lower Gear

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    Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, fewer than economists had expected, and previous months were revised downward.The labor market appears to be treading water, with employers’ desire to hire staying just ahead of the supply of workers looking for jobs.That’s the picture that emerges from the August jobs report, released on Friday, which offered evidence that while softer than it has been in years, the landscape for employment remains healthy, with wages still growing and Americans still eager to work.“This report does not indicate that we’re taking another step toward a recession, but we’re still seeing further signs of cooling,” said Sam Kuhn, an economist with the recruitment software company Appcast. “We’re trending more closely to a 2019 labor market, than the labor market in 2010 or 2011.”Employers added 142,000 positions last month, the Labor Department reported. That was somewhat fewer than forecast, bringing the three-month average to 116,000 jobs after the two prior summer months were revised down significantly. Over the year before June, the monthly average was 220,000, although that number is expected to shrink when annual revisions are finalized next year.The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, alleviating concerns that it was on a steep upward trajectory after July’s jump to 4.3 percent, which appears to have been driven by weather-related temporary layoffs.In other signs of stability, the average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours and wages grew 0.4 percent over the month, slightly more than economists had expected but not enough to add significant fuel to inflation.Wages Are Outpacing InflationYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    Job Hunting Is a Challenge for Recent College Grads

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    Unemployment is still low, but job seekers are competing for fewer openings, and hiring is sluggish. That’s a big turnaround from recent years.For much of the last three years, employers were fighting one another for workers. Now the tables have turned a bit. Few employers are firing. Layoff rates remain near record lows. But fewer employers are hiring.That has left job seekers, employed or unemployed, competing for limited openings. And younger, less experienced applicants — even those with freshly obtained college degrees — have been feeling left out.A spring survey of employers by the National Association of Colleges and Employers found that hiring projections for this year’s college graduating class were below last year’s. And it showed that finance, insurance and real estate organizations were planning a 14.5 percent decrease in hiring this year, a sharp U-turn from its 16.7 percent increase last year.Separately, the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the overall pace of hiring in professional and business services — a go-to for many young graduates — is down to levels not seen since 2009.For recent graduates, ages 22 to 27, rates of unemployment and underemployment (defined as the share of graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree) have risen slightly since 2023, according to government data.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    BLS Data on Jobs and Consumer Prices Faces a Test of Trust

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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks prices and employment, faces scrutiny after several missteps. Some questions have gone unanswered.It has been a rough year for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The agency — which produces key numbers on inflation, unemployment and other aspects of the economy — has made a series of missteps in recent months, including a premature release of the Consumer Price Index.That has prompted questions about how the bureau, which is part of the Labor Department, shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street insiders who can profit from it. The agency’s inspector general is looking into the incidents. So is at least one congressional committee.At the same time, the bureau — like other statistical agencies in the United States and around the world — is facing long-running challenges: shrinking budgets, declining response rates to its surveys, shifting economic patterns in the wake of the pandemic and increased public skepticism of its numbers, at times stoked by political leaders including former President Donald J. Trump.Economists and other experts say the bureau’s data remains reliable, and they praise the agency’s efforts to ensure its numbers are accurate and free of political bias. But they say the recent problems threaten to undermine confidence in the agency, and in government statistics more broadly.“A statistical agency lives or dies by trust,” said Erica Groshen, who served as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the Obama administration. Once that trust is lost, she added, “it’s very hard to restore it.”The agency recognizes that threat, its current leader says, and is taking it seriously.“We are under more scrutiny because the environment around the agency has changed,” Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the bureau, said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why This Jobs Report Could Be the Most Pivotal One in Years

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    It’s tough to overstate how much hinges on Friday’s employment update, from the path for interest rates to the economic outlook.A fresh jobs report set for release on Friday could mark a turning point for the American economy, making it one of the most important and closely watched pieces of data in years.The employment numbers will shed crucial light on whether a recent jump in the unemployment rate, which tracks the share of people who are looking for work but have not yet found it, was a blip or the start of a problematic trend.The jobless rate rose notably in July after a year of creeping higher. If that continued in August, economists are likely to increasingly worry that the United States may be in — or nearing — the early stages of a recession. But if the rate stabilized or ticked down, as economists forecast, July’s weak numbers are likely to be viewed as a false alarm.The answer is coming at a pivotal moment, as the Federal Reserve moves toward its first rate cut since the 2020 pandemic.Central bankers have been clear that they will lower interest rates at their meeting on Sept. 17-18. Whether that cut is a normal quarter-point reduction or a larger half-point move could hinge on how well the job market is holding up. It is rare for so much to ride on a single data point.“It matters a lot,” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a research firm. “It’s going to set the tone for the Fed, and that’s going to set the tone for global monetary policy and markets.”Unemployment and UnderemploymentThe jobless rate historically jumps during recessions.

    Unemployment is the share of people actively looking for work; underemployment also includes people who are no longer actively looking and those who work part time but would prefer full-time jobs.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More