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    Unemployment Claims Fall, Fueling Economic Hope

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesRisk Near YouVaccine RolloutGuidelines After VaccinationAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUnemployment Claims Fall, Fueling Economic HopeAlthough millions remain jobless and layoffs continue, the latest data adds to evidence that distress is on the decline.Diners at a Minneapolis restaurant. Business restrictions across the country have begun to lift and vaccinations have picked up, fueling hopes of an economic resurgence.Credit…Liam Doyle for The New York TimesMarch 11, 2021Updated 1:10 p.m. ETThe second year of the coronavirus pandemic is starting with rising hopes for the economic outlook — and a long way to go.Positive signs are emerging as restrictions on businesses lift and the pace of vaccine distributions ramps up. But millions remain unemployed, and many economists are cautioning that a return to pre-pandemic conditions could take months, if not years.That reality became all the more evident on Thursday, when the Labor Department reported that a total of 709,000 workers filed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits in the week that ended March 6. Though the figure was 47,000 lower than the week before — and touching the lowest levels of the last year — it was still extraordinarily high by historical standards.“The story week in and week out is that magnitude steals the show,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at the career site Indeed. The report “really paints the picture of long-term joblessness,” she said, adding, “That is the reality for millions of Americans and is going to be a hurdle for the recovery to clear.”All told, there are about 9.5 million fewer jobs than there were a year ago. More than four million people have dropped out of the labor force, a group not included in the most widely cited unemployment rate.“We’re still not yet at the phase of the recovery where we’re seeing the floodgates open up,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist with the career site Glassdoor. “I don’t think it’s quite fair to call what we’ve done so far ‘reopening’ because there’s still a lot of people who are out of work and a lot of businesses that are closed.”On a seasonally adjusted basis, new state unemployment claims last week totaled 712,000, shaking off a surge in the last week of February caused in part by the devastating winter storms in Texas.In addition to the state claims, there were 478,000 new claims last week for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program covering freelancers, part-timers and others who do not routinely qualify for state benefits, an increase of 42,000.The Labor Department report was released a day after Congress gave final approval to President Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package, which will inject the economy with a fresh surge of federal aid. The legislation, signed by Mr. Biden on Thursday, includes an extension of federal jobless benefits, which could provide a stopgap measure of relief for those still out of work as the labor market begins to heal in earnest after months of uneven improvement.The provisions come at an urgent moment for the millions of jobless: Democrats had been racing to get the bill signed into law before federal unemployment benefits begin to lapse on Sunday. Under its terms, a $300 weekly supplement to other unemployment payments will be extended through Sept. 6. The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program will be available for at least 79 weeks, up from 50, and run through Sept. 6.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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    Unemployment Claims Dropped Last Week as Coronavirus Cases Eased

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesRisk Near YouVaccine RolloutNew Variants TrackerAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyJobless Claims Decline as Coronavirus Cases EaseThe latest reading on the labor market shows evidence of continued healing, though economists caution that the recovery is still fragile.Coronavirus caseloads have been dropping amid vaccination efforts, but until employers and consumers feel that the pandemic is under control, economists say, the labor market won’t fully recover.Credit…James Estrin/The New York TimesFeb. 25, 2021Updated 5:42 p.m. ETNew claims for unemployment fell last week, the government reported on Thursday, the latest sign that the labor market’s recovery, however slow and unsteady, is continuing.“The numbers look encouraging on the face of it,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.He and other analysts, however, cautioned against reading too much into a single week’s changes. The combined average of new state and federal unemployment insurance claims over the first eight weeks of this year is actually slightly higher than it was over the last eight weeks of 2020.When you take step back and look at the broader picture, Mr. Daco said, “It does reflect an environment in which the labor market remains quite fragile.”A total of 710,000 workers filed first-time claims for state benefits during the week that ended Feb. 20, a decrease of 132,000, the Labor Department said. In addition, 451,000 new claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program covering freelancers, part-timers and others who do not routinely qualify for state benefits, a decline of 61,000.Neither figure is seasonally adjusted. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new state claims totaled 730,000, a decline of 111,000.On an unadjusted basis, last week’s total was the lowest number of new state claims since the start of the pandemic; seasonally adjusted, it was the lowest since November. The figures are subject to revision as the Labor Department receives more data.Although initial jobless claims are nowhere near the eye-popping levels seen last spring, they are still extraordinarily high by historical standards. There are roughly 10 million fewer jobs than there were last year at this time.Coronavirus caseloads have been dropping amid efforts to get vaccines to people who are most vulnerable. But until employers and consumers feel that the pandemic is under control, economists say, the labor market won’t fully recover.“I can’t imagine we’re going to see big changes in jobless claims for a while,” said Allison Schrager, an economist at the Manhattan Institute.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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    A Year of Hardship, Helped and Hindered by Washington

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesSee Your Local RiskNew Variants TrackerVaccine RolloutA Year of Hardship, Helped and Hindered by WashingtonFor Kathryn Stewart, a struggling single mother in Michigan, the past year showed how much safety net programs can help — and how the nation’s fickleness about them can add confusion and uncertainty to fear and worry.Credit…Supported byContinue reading the main storyFeb. 14, 2021Updated 2:57 p.m. ETWhen the coronavirus pandemic struck last March, Kathryn Stewart was working at a gas station in rural Michigan and living in her mother’s trailer with eight relatives, three dogs and a budget with no room for error. Her mother, who is disabled, soon urged her to quit to avoid bringing home the disease. Ms. Stewart reluctantly agreed, wondering how she would support herself and her 10-year-old son.An expanded safety net caught her, after being rushed into place by Congress last spring with rare bipartisan support.To her surprise, Ms. Stewart not only received unemployment insurance but a weekly bonus of $600 more than tripled her income. A stimulus check offered additional help, as did a modest food stamp increase. Despite opaque rules and confounding delays, the outpouring of government aid lifted her above the poverty line.Six months later, after temporary aid expired and deadlock in Washington returned, Ms. Stewart’s benefits fell to a trickle, and she was all but homeless after a family fight forced her from the trailer to a friend’s spare room. She skipped meals to feed her son, sold possessions to conjure cash and suffered anxiety attacks so severe they sometimes kept her in bed.Just as Ms. Stewart finally found a job, celebration turned to shock: The state demanded that she repay the jobless aid she had received, claiming she had been ineligible. That left her with an eye-popping debt of more than $12,000.“I spent the whole day just trying to breathe,” Ms. Stewart said the day the notice arrived. “I’m really confused about the whole thing. I’m trying not to panic.”At times during 2020, Kathryn Stewart was bringing in more money than ever because of government aid programs. At other times, when the aid dried up, she and her son went hungry.Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesIn the robust aid she received and its painful disappearance, Ms. Stewart’s experience captures both sides of the gyrating federal efforts to fortify the safety net in a crisis of historic proportions.As the virus ravaged jobs last spring, rapid federal action protected millions of people from hardship and showed that government can be a powerful force in reducing poverty.Yet the expiration of aid a few months later also underscored how vulnerable the needy are to partisan standoffs in an age of polarized government. Gaps in aid left families short on food and rent, uncertainty made it impossible to plan and confusion joined fear and worry.In his first weeks in office, President Biden appears to have both lessons in mind. A benefit extension passed in December expires next month, and he is urging Congress to spend big and move fast to keep 11 million workers from losing unemployment aid. Democrats are advancing his $1.9 trillion plan for stimulus and relief with a fast-track procedure that limits their policy options but increases the odds of avoiding more whipsaw delays.Critics of the spending warn it swells the national debt and erodes incentives to work. Supporters say the government’s impact has rarely seemed so direct: When help flowed at extraordinary levels, poverty fell. When it ended, poverty rose.“This could be a watershed moment,” said H. Luke Shaefer, who runs a poverty research center at the University of Michigan. “We showed how much government can do to mitigate hardship, even if the effort didn’t last.”Ms. Stewart and her son, Jack, had to rely at one point on a friend for housing.Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesWith millions still depending on government aid in a weak recovery, Ms. Stewart’s experience over the past 10 months highlights the stakes. As her complex life shows, the causes of poverty often run deep, and some lie beyond the reach of a government check. But the aid, while it lasted, broke her fall, and she is now back on her feet.In recent weeks, Ms. Stewart, 36, has been working at an Amazon warehouse and fighting Michigan’s efforts to recoup her unemployment benefits. She said she was “super happy” to no longer be at risk from another Washington impasse.An introspective woman, insightful about her hardships but distant from politics, she wonders how federal help has at once been so generous and so unsteady — a question that weighs on millions of Americans now waiting to see whether Congress moves quickly enough to sustain their benefits.“It made a huge difference in our lives,” Ms. Stewart said. “But it starts and stops and it’s really confusing. You feel helpless when you’re being helped by the government.”Should another crisis arise, she said, “I hope the government has a better plan.”Anxiety, Solitude and Then the PandemicMs. Stewart grew up accustomed to hardship and inventive in her responses. In a family too poor for vacations, she created her own by tagging along on her stepfather’s tractor-trailer runs. When he fought with her mother, she sheltered in closets. When he left, her mother tried to quell the family’s hunger with diet pills. Ms. Stewart was in grade school when panic attacks started, which she blamed on the conflict.An unsupervised adolescence followed in Grand Rapids, where Ms. Stewart slept in parks with runaways. She liked the literature of bohemians and rebels — Hunter S. Thompson and Oscar Wilde — but left school at 16 and lived in her car. Short on formal education, Ms. Stewart was long on curiosity and peripatetic instinct, which carried her from Ireland to California in between seasonal work at Michigan resorts. She dyed her hair unusual colors. She gave herself tattoos. She covered her walls with the surrealist works of Salvador Dalí, in shared faith that “you create your own reality.” Fearful of forgetting, Ms. Stewart kept a memory box, which included a middle-school note, a ukulele pick and clippings from her first mohawk.CreditMs. Stewart’s shift at an Amazon warehouse starts at 1:20 a.m. “I’m a number but a number with a paycheck,” she said.Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesIn her mid-20s, Ms. Stewart married and had a son, Jack, but her husband left and her anxiety grew. “Over the years I’ve gotten real anxious — almost afraid of people,” she said. “I’m an empath — if someone else feels bad, I feel bad.”Still, Ms. Stewart worked, most happily in solitude.By 2019, Ms. Stewart was a night janitor and living with her sister in Grand Rapids. Her sister fell behind on the rent and insisted they move in with their mother, five hours away in rural Ossineke. Ms. Stewart grudgingly succumbed. “We all rely on each other, which is good except for us not getting along,” she said.With four children and conflicting parenting styles, the trailer proved crowded and tense. When Ms. Stewart found work as a gas station cashier — $10 an hour, 20 hours a week — she welcomed the escape as much as the pay.A few weeks later, the coronavirus hit.Against All Odds, Help Was on the Way As the virus spread in early March, President Donald J. Trump insisted it posed no threat. “Jobs are booming, incomes are soaring,” he tweeted. By the next week, Disneyland and Broadway were padlocked and the stock market notched its worst daily loss in decades.While the need for Washington action was clear, the risks of an impasse were great. Liberal Democrats controlled the House, conservative Republicans held the Senate, and Mr. Trump derided the House speaker as “Crazy Nancy” Pelosi. Yet within a few weeks, they agreed on a $2.2 trillion plan.One surprise was how much it did for the poor, a class not known for political clout. Even the poorest families fully qualified for stimulus payments — $1,200 for adults, $500 for children (some Republicans had proposed giving them less) — and at the Democrats’ insistence, Congress greatly expanded jobless benefits.The existing program was filled with gaps: It covered only about a quarterof the jobless and replaced less than half their lost wages. Congress widened coverage, temporarily adding part-time workers, independent contractors and others typically excluded. And for four months it gave everyone on jobless aid a large bonus: $600 a week.The payments were more than many workers had earned on the job. Critics said the aid would discourage the jobless from seeking work, but urgency prevailed. “Gag and vote for it anyway,” the Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, advised fellow Republicans. The Senate vote was 96 to 0.Approving aid was one thing, delivering it another. Most stimulus checks arrived automatically and fast, though people who did not file tax returns had to contact the Internal Revenue Service — a procedural hurdle that kept payments from about eight million potentially eligible people, mostly low-income. Households with undocumented immigrants were barred from stimulus checks, which excluded about five million spouses and children who were citizens or legal residents.Unemployment insurance proved harder to get. With nearly 40 million claims in nine weeks, the state-run programs were overwhelmed. Computers crashed. Phone lines jammed. Governors called in the National Guard to process requests.Food shortages soared, especially among families with children as school closures deprived millions of meals. Lines outside food banks stretched for miles.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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    Dip in Unemployment Claims Offers Hope as New Virus Cases Ease

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesSee Your Local RiskNew Variants TrackerVaccine RolloutAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyDip in Unemployment Claims Offers Hope as New Virus Cases EaseWith restrictions lifting, workers in industries hard hit by the pandemic are getting a respite from layoffs, and job postings are increasing.A closed restaurant at Grand Central Market in Los Angeles. Workers in leisure and hospitality industries have been hit especially hard by job losses during the pandemic.Credit…Philip Cheung for The New York TimesFeb. 11, 2021Updated 5:59 p.m. ETAfter a pandemic-induced spike in layoffs amid new restrictions in many states, unemployment claims are falling, helped by a drop in new coronavirus cases.Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday, and were significantly below the level in most of December and early January.New coronavirus cases have fallen by a third from the level of two weeks ago, prompting states like California and New York to relax curbs on indoor dining and other activities. That, in turn, has provided something of a respite for workers in the hardest-hit industries.Last week brought 813,000 new claims for state benefits, compared with 850,000 the previous week. Adjusted for seasonal variations, last week’s figure was 793,000, a decrease of 19,000.There were 335,000 new claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federally funded program for part-time workers, the self-employed and others ordinarily ineligible for jobless benefits. That total, which was not seasonally adjusted, was down from 369,000 the week before.While claims remain extraordinarily high by historical standards, the improvement has raised hopes that layoffs will continue to slow as vaccinations spread and employers shift from shedding workers to adding them.“We’re stuck at this very high level of claims, but activity is picking up,” said Julia Pollak, a labor economist with ZipRecruiter, an online employment marketplace. Indeed, job postings at ZipRecruiter stand at 11.3 million, close to the 11.4 million level before the pandemic hit.The improving pandemic situation has eased the strain on restaurants and bars, Ms. Pollak added. But with a deficit of almost 10 million jobs since the pandemic struck, and employers still cautious about hiring, the economy faces broad challenges.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday that policymakers should stay focused on restoring full employment, “given the number of people who have lost their jobs and the likelihood that some will struggle to find work in the postpandemic economy.”He noted that employment had dropped just 4 percent for workers earning high wages but “a staggering 17 percent” for the bottom quartile of earners.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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    How Reddit Became America’s Unofficial Unemployment Hotline

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    In early December, Alex Branch’s car broke down. A 23-year-old former arcade employee in southern Virginia, Mr. Branch had been receiving unemployment benefits since he was laid off in March, and figured he would have no problem paying for the repairs. But when he checked his bank account, he was troubled to find that the […] More

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    Continuing Job Losses Put Spotlight on Economic Relief

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Jobs CrisisCurrent Unemployment RateWhen the Checks Run OutThe Economy in 9 ChartsThe First 6 MonthsAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyContinuing Job Losses Put Spotlight on Economic ReliefRelentless unemployment claims show the pandemic’s grip on the labor market. Help from the recent stimulus bill may lapse before an upturn arrives.Waiting for donations this week at a food distribution center in Inglewood, Calif. Hopes for an economic lift from coronavirus vaccinations have been set back by a slow rollout.Credit…Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York TimesJan. 21, 2021Updated 6:49 p.m. ETEven as it tries to right a shipwrecked economy, the Biden administration confronted fresh evidence of weakness Thursday with the report of nearly a million new state unemployment claims, heightening calls for fresh stimulus efforts.The scale of the job losses underscores the fragility of the job market as overall economic momentum slows amid the worsening pandemic. What’s more, key provisions of the $900 billion aid package passed by Congress last month will lapse in mid-March, well before economists expect mass vaccinations to help the economy rebound.“Unfortunately, the labor market started 2021 with very little momentum,” said Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “There hasn’t been any improvement, and if anything, there has been deterioration.”It is a perilous start for the administration, which is eager to make good on President Biden’s pledge to “build back better” but must first halt the damage as employers continue to let workers go.The Labor Department said Thursday that 961,000 workers filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits last week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the total was 900,000.The figures were down from the previous week but remain extraordinarily high by historical standards and have recently reached levels not seen since midsummer. In the comparable week a year ago, before the pandemic, there were 282,000 initial claims.“It’s staggering, and it was worse than I thought,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton in Chicago. “This makes stimulus more urgent.”Mr. Biden found a similar predicament when he became vice president in 2009 with a contracting economy and Republican opposition to a big stimulus package. Although there are bright spots that didn’t exist then, like a rally on Wall Street and a strong housing market, White House officials want to avoid the lasting economic damage and slow growth that resulted from that recession.On Thursday, the administration pointed to the latest data to make its case for new spending.“This morning’s report on new unemployment claims is another stark reminder that we must act now,” said Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council. The situation, he said, “will only worsen if bold action isn’t taken.”Mr. Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package that would include $1,400 in direct payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits and money for hard-pressed states and cities.In written testimony released Thursday as part of her Senate confirmation process, Janet L. Yellen, Mr. Biden’s nominee for Treasury secretary, reiterated the urgency of renewed aid.“Unemployment remains troublingly high, and millions of families are facing hunger or the risk of eviction,” Ms. Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, told a questioner. “Additional relief is needed to strengthen the economy, address our public health challenge and provide relief to communities that have been hardest hit.”Republicans have already registered resistance to another big spending plan.“We’re looking at another spending blowout,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania said at Ms. Yellen’s confirmation hearing on Tuesday. “The only organizing principle I can understand, it seems, is to spend as much money as possible, seemingly for the sake of spending it.”Democrats hope to push a coronavirus relief package through Congress in the coming weeks, with House Democrats postponing votes until the beginning of February as committees work to translate Mr. Biden’s coronavirus plan into legislation.“We’ll be doing our committee work all next week so that we are completely ready to go to the floor when we come back,” the House speaker, Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, said at her weekly news conference on Thursday.But with Ms. Pelosi yet to send the House’s article of impeachment against former President Donald J. Trump to the Senate, and with Senate leaders at odds over the terms of how to organize an evenly split chamber, it is unclear how quickly legislation can be processed. Democrats are also leaving open the possibility of using a process called budget reconciliation, requiring only a simple majority for approval, to push legislation through the Senate.A bipartisan group of 16 senators — including some who helped jump-start negotiations over the most recent coronavirus relief package — is expected to speak with Mr. Deese in the coming days about additional relief.The job losses have worsened in recent weeks, as new restrictions and lockdowns force service-sector employers like restaurants and leisure and hospitality establishments to close. If the trend continues, it could threaten other industries.“The level of layoffs is very high, and the virus is causing serious disruption,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.“More aid is needed for households and businesses,” she added. “Many businesses will shut down, and a lot of jobs will be lost without it. That poses a downside risk for the economy in the near term.”A movie theater in Culver City, Calif., with no coming attractions. Leisure industries have been particularly hard hit by the resurgent pandemic.Credit…Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York TimesIn another sign of weakness, the Labor Department reported this month that employers cut payrolls by 140,000 in December, the first decline since the mass layoffs of last spring.The beginning of vaccinations provided optimism about a quick turnaround. The slow rollout in many parts of the country has set back those hopes, though the stimulus package last month helped allay fears of a double-dip recession.Among the emergency federal programs extended by the recent legislation was Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which helps freelancers, part-time workers and others normally ineligible for state jobless benefits. A total of 424,000 new claims were filed under the program last week, up from 285,000 the previous week.Mr. Daco of Oxford Economics said uncertainty about the program’s continuation might have held back claims late last year, so the jump last week could be due to belated filings as well as the overall weakness of the labor market.But Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and a $300 weekly supplement to state and federal unemployment benefits will both expire in mid-March without new legislative action.Ms. Farooqi said meaningful improvement in the economy was unlikely by then.“It’s going to be pretty rough over the next few months,” she said. “My expectation was and still is, at this level of infections, you will see layoffs mounting.”Over all, the best economic remedy is more vaccinations, said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago.“There is no better economic stimulus than a successful vaccine rollout,” he said. “It will reduce the risk of human interaction and provide a basis on which different types of businesses can open more durably.”Some experts say it will take many months for most of the population to be inoculated. In the meantime, federal aid efforts are pegged to specific durations, rather than any meaningful improvement in economic conditions.That has created a series of cliffhangers in which help has hung in the balance as millions of unemployed Americans watched the news from Washington with anxiety. Although Democratic control of both chambers of Congress gives Mr. Biden an edge, the kind of ambitious stimulus faces challenging legislative dynamics.There are some signs of hope, despite the dismal jobs picture. The stock market has hit record highs in recent days, and the housing market continues to thrive, buoyed by rock-bottom interest rates.Some economists think the economy could boom when vaccinations are commonplace and pent-up demand sends consumers back to restaurants, onto airplanes and cruise ships, and into deserted downtowns. But there will be more pain before relief arrives.Emily Cochrane contributed reporting.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    How Our Unemployment Benefits System Failed

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Jobs CrisisCurrent Unemployment RateThe First Six MonthsPermanent LayoffsWhen a $600 Lifeline EndedAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyHow the American Unemployment System FailedA decline in funding and changes in the workplace — and how long people are out of work — have left a program unequal to the 21st-century economy. More

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    Unemployment Claims Rise Sharply, Showing New Economic Pain

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    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesA Future With CoronavirusVaccine InformationF.A.Q.TimelineAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUnemployment Claims Rise Sharply, Showing New Economic PainWeekly filings for jobless benefits hit the highest level since July as the pandemic’s resurgence batters the service industry.A closed restaurant in Santa Barbara, Calif. The winter coronavirus wave has pummeled the leisure and hospitality industries.Credit…Bryan Denton for The New York TimesJan. 14, 2021Updated 7:08 p.m. ETTen months after the coronavirus crisis decimated the labor market, the resurgent pandemic keeps sending shock waves through the American economy.Though more than half of the 22 million jobs lost last spring have been regained, a new surge of infections has prompted shutdowns and layoffs that have hit the leisure and hospitality industries especially hard, dealing a setback to the recovery.The latest evidence came on Thursday when the Labor Department reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose sharply last week, exceeding one million for the first time since July.Just days earlier, the government announced that employers had shed 140,000 jobs in December, the first net decline in employment since last spring, with restaurants, bars and hotels recording steep losses.“We’re in a deep economic hole, and we’re digging in the wrong direction,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist with the career site Glassdoor. “The report obviously shows that the rise in claims is worse than expected, and there is reason to think that things are going to get worse before they are going to get better.”That prospect is all the more troubling because a major element of the relief package signed by President Trump last month — a $300 weekly federal supplement to other unemployment benefits — is set to run out in mid-March.President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has said he will push a new stimulus package through Congress to provide a lifeline for workers and employers until the pandemic can be brought under control. His plan will include direct payments to most households along with aid to small businesses and local and state governments.The recent economic data has brought a new sense of urgency to such efforts, with millions struggling to make ends meet even as more job losses could be in the offing.The Labor Department said on Thursday that 1.15 million workers filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits during the first full week of the new year. A further 284,000 claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, an emergency federal program for freelancers, part-time workers and others normally ineligible for state jobless benefits. Neither figure is seasonally adjusted. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new state claims totaled 965,000.Before the pandemic, weekly filings typically totaled around 200,000.The holidays may have held down unemployment claims in previous weeks, with people waiting until the new year to submit claims. But several economists expressed skepticism that filing delays were a major driver of the uptick in claims last week.“I don’t think there’s any question that on the margin, there could be some unusual things going on,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. “But we have to think also about the fact that these are not our grandfather’s unemployment lines — meaning much of this is done digitally. I think if one just tries to understand human nature, it doesn’t make a lot of sense that someone would be delaying a request for financial assistance when they’re out of work.”More likely, economists say, is that the $300 federal supplement prompted an increase in demand for benefits.Confusion over the new federal aid — which Mr. Trump spent several days threatening not to sign — may also have temporarily slowed down claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which fell during the week ending Jan. 2. The increase last week brought the numbers more in line with the previous elevated levels.Volunteers processing donations at a food pantry in Wichita, Kan. More than one million people filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week.Credit…Stephen Speranza for The New York TimesThose seeking new work have found diminishing prospects. Hiring slowed for five straight months before December’s outright reversal. In November, even before the recent surge in virus cases, the number of workers officially counted as unemployed outnumbered job openings by more than four million, according to the Labor Department.The Coronavirus Outbreak More