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    High on Hope, Wall St. Hears What It Wants From Trump

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    Investors and executives are often emphasizing what they like in the president-elect’s agenda, while dismissing what they don’t as mere posturing.If you ask many a Wall Street investor, tax cuts are poised for extension, deregulation is all but guaranteed, immigration reform for high-skill workers has real potential and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might just cut the deficit.Tariffs, by contrast, are a mere bargaining chip. Immigrant expulsions will probably be limited, and there is no way on earth that the incoming White House would meddle with the independent Federal Reserve.Hope has been riding high in financial markets and corporate boardrooms in the month-and-change since the presidential election. But it is often predicated on a bet: Many of the optimists are choosing to believe that the Trump promises they want to see fulfilled are going to become reality, while dismissing those they think would be bad for the economy as mere posturing.“A lot of people are using deductive reasoning and concluding that he’ll only do things that are good for the market,” said Julia Coronado, founder of the research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. “They can ride this wave of hope-ium through the end of January,” she said, adding that much of it “feels delusional.”There’s a reason for the hope: Many investors believe that markets themselves will act as a bulwark against extreme proposals.Mr. Trump does care enormously about financial markets, and particularly the stock market. He points to it as a marker of success in a way that few if any presidents have ever done. And during his first term in office, he sometimes backed away from more extreme plans — like an idea to oust the Fed chair — when they caused markets to plummet.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Jerome Powell and the Fed Head for Another Collision with Trump

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    Rates may not come down as much or as quickly as had been expected, just as Trump — a self-declared “low-rate guy” — returns to the White House.Inside the halls of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters overlooking Constitution Avenue in Washington D.C., casual mentions of the incoming Trump administration are cautious and infrequent. That’s by design.Donald J. Trump had a fraught relationship with the politically independent Fed during his first term. The president wanted central bankers to lower interest rates more aggressively and faster than they thought was economically appropriate. When officials refused to comply, he blasted them as “boneheads” and an “enemy.” He flirted with trying to fire Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. He tried (and failed) to appoint loyalists to central bank leadership roles.As the Fed enters a new Trump era with interest rates higher than they were at any point in his first term, tensions seem poised to escalate once again — and America’s central bank is on high alert.Fed analysts try to avoid casually discussing tariffs in email or Microsoft Teams meetings, wary that the information could become public and make the Fed look anti-Trump, according to one staff economist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. Hallway chatter has taken a negative tone but is often studiously generic and apolitical, according to people familiar with the mood inside the building who also requested anonymity. And while Fed officials and economists have had to begin to consider what Mr. Trump’s promised policies might do to growth and inflation, they have avoided publicly speculating.Central bankers are, in effect, keeping their heads down to stay out of the limelight. But try as they might, they appear destined for another crash course with Mr. Trump.The president-elect promised “interest rates cuts the likes of which you have never seen before” while campaigning. Fed officials have been cutting rates since September and are on course to lower them further as inflation cools, but they are unlikely to reduce them as much as Mr. Trump is hoping.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Backs a Longshoremen’s Union That Supported Him

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump is supporting the International Longshoremen’s Association, which could strike soon if it doesn’t reach a deal on automation with employers.Leaders of some labor unions tried to establish good relations with Donald J. Trump before the election — and for one of them, that effort may already be paying off.President-elect Trump lent his support on Thursday to the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts. Contract negotiations between the union and employers have broken down over the use of port machinery that can move cargo without human involvement. The I.L.A. opposes it, believing it reduces jobs, but the employers, mainly large shipping companies, have said that the equipment moves goods more cheaply and efficiently.Writing on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he had met with I.L.A. leaders and that he sympathized with the union’s fears.“I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”The union suspended a short strike in October after securing a large wage increase, and agreed to keep negotiating with port operators until Jan. 15 on other parts of the contract, including provisions on how much automated machinery can be used.Mr. Trump won a second presidential term with the support of many union members, and he has vowed to protect American workers. And while it is unclear how much he will do to help the labor movement broadly, his backing of the I.L.A. suggests he could strengthen the hand of unions that have courted him.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Data Agency Blames Old Tech and Other Failures for Missteps

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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks jobs and inflation, issued a report on what caused embarrassing episodes in which data was released improperly.Outdated technology, inadequate funding and a failure to follow established procedures contributed to embarrassing missteps at the Bureau of Labor Statistics this year, a panel that examined the episodes said on Tuesday.Julie Su, the acting labor secretary, formed the 11-member group in September after a botched data release allowed some investors to see potentially market-moving employment data before the public. That followed two other episodes: one in February, in which an agency employee provided methodological information to finance industry “super users”; and another, in May, in which inflation data was inadvertently posted to the agency’s website half an hour before its scheduled release.The panel was chaired by a former Labor Department official and consisted mostly of current officials from the department and other federal agencies. It also included two members of the public. Ms. Su gave the group 60 days to “identify causes of and fixes to the inaccurate release of data” and report back.The panel found that the three episodes were “unique and unrelated,” and noted that none of them related to the quality or accuracy of the agency’s data. But it argued that even the perception that the agency was poorly run, or that favored groups had early access to information, threatened to erode public trust in government data.“The smallest glitch can undermine months of high-quality data work in a moment,” the panel wrote in its report.Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, echoed that message in a call with reporters on Tuesday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    November Jobs Report Shows Gain of 227,000; Unemployment Rises

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    Hiring bounced back after disruptions from storms and a major strike.Job creation bounced back in November after disruptions from storms and a major strike, reinforcing a picture of modest employment expansion over the past several months.The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With upward revisions to September and October figures, the three-month average gain is 173,000, slightly higher than the average over the six months before that.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1 percent in October, as fewer people were able to find work. But for those who had jobs, wages jumped more than expected and were 4 percent higher than they were a year earlier.Unemployment rate More

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    For Those in Need of a Job, Landing One Might Still Be a Challenge

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    The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent in October, remains low by historical standards. But under the surface, there are signs that it can be difficult to land a job.The share of unemployed workers finding jobs has been falling, and the average duration of unemployment has been rising — two indications of mounting strain for job seekers.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a steep drop in the job-finding rate in October, extending previous months’ declines. That points to a potentially challenging dynamic: Layoffs remain relatively low, but people who lose their jobs could be struggling to find new ones.The average number of weeks of unemployment also hit a two-and-a-half-year high in October, at 22.9 weeks, up from another recent high of 22.6 weeks in September. In the past few months, more people have been falling into the category of long-term unemployment, typically defined as being out of work for more than six months.A recent downturn in open roles could have been contributing to the strain on job seekers, keeping many unemployed for longer. Available positions in September tumbled to 7.4 million, resembling prepandemic levels.Job openings did tick up in October, surpassing expectations, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released this week. And in a survey conducted last month by the Conference Board, roughly 15 percent of consumers said jobs were hard to get, down from the almost 18 percent who said the same in October, hinting at easing conditions. More

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    Everybody Loves FRED: How America Fell for a Data Tool

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    From Facebook political debates to college classrooms, the St. Louis Fed’s data tool has gained a major following.Fans post about him on social media. Swag bearing his name sells out on the regular. College professors dedicate class sessions and textbook sections to him. Foreign government officials have been known to express jealousy over his skills, and one prominent economist refers to him as a “national treasure.”Meet FRED, a 33-year-old data tool from St. Louis, Mo., and the economics world’s most unlikely celebrity.Even if you have not interacted with FRED yourself, there is a good chance you’ve encountered him without knowing it. The tool’s signature baby blue graphs dot social media and crop up on many of the world’s most popular news websites. (Paul Krugman, an opinion writer for The New York Times, has referred to FRED as “my friend.”)Many people feel that way about FRED. The website had nearly 15 million users last year, and it is on track for even more in 2024, up from fewer than 400,000 as recently as 2009. Their reasons for clicking are diverse: FRED users are coming for freshly released unemployment data, to check in on egg inflation or to find out whether business is booming in Memphis.The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis building.Kate Munsch for The New York TimesThat appeal crosses political lines. Larry Kudlow, who directed the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, has tweeted and retweeted FRED charts. Groups as disparate as the spending-focused Alaskans for a Sustainable Budget and the pro-worker advocacy organization Employ America have used its charts to back up their arguments. It is even occasionally used by professional and White House economists, who tend to have access to sophisticated data tools, for quick charts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Threats About the Dollar Could Push Other Countries to Find Alternatives

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that seek to replace the dollar in trade or undermine its global reserve currency status.When Republicans nominated Donald J. Trump to be their presidential candidate over the summer, the party’s platform included a pledge to maintain the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Since winning the election, Mr. Trump has indicated that he wants to deliver on that promise. Over the last week he warned that if the group of nations known as BRICS countries — which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — tried to create their own currency to rival the dollar, he would punish them with 100 percent tariffs and shut them out of U.S. markets.“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.The warning was intended to preserve the dollar’s premier status, but economists and analysts suggested that it could have the opposite effect. Although it appears unlikely that the BRICS would be able to create their own currency, the aggressive use of tariffs and sanctions by the United States is the reason that other nations have increasingly been considering alternatives to the dollar. By making such threats, Mr. Trump could end up accelerating that trend.“Threatening retaliation against the unlikely creation of a BRICS currency only reinforces the rest of the world’s concerns about the U.S. willingness to wield dollar dominance as an economic and geopolitical weapon,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “This will intensify other countries’ attempts to diversify away from use of the dollar for international payments and for foreign exchange reserves.”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency for about a century and has served as the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. It makes up the majority of foreign exchange reserves held in global central banks and is widely used in international transactions such as trade and loans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More