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    Inflation Remained Sticky Ahead of Trump’s Escalating Trade War

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    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed underlying price pressures persisting in February.Americans hoping for some relief on inflation suffered a setback in February, as new data showed underlying price pressures intensifying even before the latest escalation in President Trump’s trade war.The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, after stripping out volatile food and energy items, climbed 2.8 percent in February from a year earlier, outpacing January’s annual pace. On a monthly basis, these prices ticked up another 0.4 percent, higher than the monthly increase in January.Overall inflation came in at 2.5 percent, a level that sits well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and has been more or less in place since November.The latest data from the Commerce Department highlights the extent of the challenge the central bank is confronting. Its debate over what to do about interest rates has been complicated by a rapidly escalating trade war, one that has bred extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook.On Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on cars and car parts imported into the United States and has vowed to unveil another set of tariffs next week.With the scope and scale of the tariffs not yet clear, and a host of other policies pertaining to immigration, taxes and deregulation still being worked out, the Fed has opted to stand pat until it gets more clarity about what exactly Mr. Trump will enforce and how consumers and businesses will respond.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Imported Cars and Car Parts

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    President Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on cars and car parts that were imported into the United States, a move that could encourage U.S. auto production over the longer run but is likely to throw global supply chains into disarray and raise prices for Americans who buy an automobile.The tariffs will go into effect on April 3 and apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States and to imported parts that are included in cars assembled at American auto plants. Those tariffs will hit foreign brands as well as American ones, like Ford Motor and General Motors, which assemble some automobiles outside the country, including in Canada or Mexico.Nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts in vehicles assembled in the United States. That means the tariffs could push up car prices significantly when inflation has already made cars and trucks more expensive for American consumers.During remarks at the White House, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would encourage auto companies and their suppliers to set up shop in the United States.“Anybody who has plants in the United States, it’s going to be good for,” he said.But the auto industry is global and has been built up around trade agreements that allow factories in different countries to specialize in certain parts or types of cars, with the expectation that they would face little to no tariffs. That has been particularly true for North America, where national auto sectors have been stitched together by trade agreements since the 1960s.Stock markets fell on news that the auto tariffs would be imposed. Shares of major carmakers tumbled further in after-hours trading, after the White House clarified that the tariffs would also cover imported auto parts. General Motors was down nearly 7 percent and Ford and Stellantis were more than 4 percent lower after the markets closed. Tesla’s stock fell 1 percent in extended trading.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Trade Policies and Federal Cuts Shake Consumer Confidence

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    Americans are increasingly anxious about their jobs and finances as the Trump administration’s trade policies and government cutbacks stoke concern about the economy.Consumer confidence tumbled this month to its lowest level since January 2021, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday, extending a decline that has been underway since shortly after President Trump was elected last fall. The short-term outlook for “income, business and labor market conditions” fell to its lowest reading in 12 years, the business group reported, signaling consumer angst about a deterioration in economic conditions in the coming year.Economists have warned that Mr. Trump’s plans for sweeping tariffs on the United States’ biggest trading partners could reignite inflation. Whiplash from shifting trade policies, and investors’ concern about a potential slowdown in the American economy, fueled a stock-market sell-off earlier this month. Households are bracing for higher inflation over the next year, according to the survey, with 12-month inflation expectations rising to 6.2 percent, from an outlook of 5.8 percent in February. (Over the most recent 12 months, the inflation rate was 2.8 percent, according to the Consumer Price Index for February.)Consumers are “spooked” by the Trump administration’s trade wars, cuts to the federal government by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency and the recent stock market sell-off, said Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank.“When people fear for their jobs, they will cut back on discretionary spending on vacations and going out, and delay big purchases like new houses, cars or appliances,” Mr. Adams said. He added that the length of the downturn in consumer sentiment was hard to predict.Stephen Miran, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, played down the drop in consumer confidence in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “Folks often let their political views influence their views of the economy,” he said.The latest Conference Board survey added to growing evidence that uncertainty about tariff policies is making consumers less confident about the economic outlook and more worried about inflation. Data from the University of Michigan released this month showed consumer sentiment plummeting 11 percent from February as Americans of all ages, income groups and political affiliations turned even more downbeat.Some company executives warn of a pullback in consumer spending, too. Delta Air Lines cut its financial forecast for the first three months of the year, citing lower demand for domestic travel, while the chief executive of the clothing retailer Burlington cautioned its investors that tariffs “could hurt discretionary spending.” More

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    Layoffs and Unemployment Grow Among College Graduates

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    When Starbucks announced last month that it was laying off more than 1,000 corporate employees, it highlighted a disturbing trend for white-collar workers: Over the past few years, they have seen a steeper rise in unemployment than other groups, and slower wage growth.It also added fuel to a debate that has preoccupied economists for much of that time: Are the recent job losses merely a temporary development? Or do they signal something more ominous and irreversible?After sitting below 4 percent for more than two years, the overall unemployment rate has topped that threshold since May.Economists say that the job market remains strong by historical standards and that much of the recent weakening appears connected to the economic impact of the pandemic. Companies hired aggressively amid surging demand, then shifted to layoffs once the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. Many of these companies have sought to make their operations leaner under pressure from investors.But amid rapid advances in artificial intelligence and President Trump’s targeting of federal agencies, which disproportionately support white-collar jobs, some wonder if a permanent decline for knowledge work has begun.“We’re seeing a meaningful transition in the way work is done in the white-collar world,” said Carl Tannenbaum, the chief economist of Northern Trust. “I tell people a wave is coming.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Infrastructure Improves, but Cuts May Imperil Progress, Report Says

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    A report card from an engineering group found that American roads, ports and other infrastructure got better last year but could be hurt if federal funding is reduced.Increased federal spending in recent years has helped to improve U.S. ports, roads, parks, public transit and levees, according to a report released on Tuesday by the American Society of Civil Engineers.But that progress could stagnate if those investments, some of which were put on hold after President Trump took office in January, aren’t sustained.Overall, the group gave the nation’s infrastructure a C grade, a mediocre rating but the best the country has received since the group’s first report card in 1998. Most infrastructure, including aviation, waterways and schools, earned a C or D grade; ports and rail did better. The group also projected a $3.7 trillion infrastructure funding shortfall over the next decade.“The report card demonstrates the crucial need for the new administration and Congress to continue sustained investment in infrastructure,” Darren Olson, the chairman of the society’s committee on America’s infrastructure, said on a call with reporters. “Better infrastructure is an efficient investment of taxpayer dollars that results in a stronger economy and prioritizes American jobs.”The report, which is now released every four years, has long noted that the United States spends too little on infrastructure. But that started to change in 2021, the group said, thanks to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which authorized $1.2 trillion in funding under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. That investment is showing results, with grades having improved since the last report, in 2021, for nearly half the 18 categories that the group tracks.But in January, Mr. Trump froze much of the funding under that law and another aimed at addressing climate change, pending a review by his agencies. That halted a variety of programs, including those intended to help schools, farmers and small businesses.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    US Exporters Vie to Shape Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Ahead of April 2

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    Ahead of President Trump’s next big trade move, his administration invited companies to weigh in on the economic barriers they faced abroad.The list of complaints was both sprawling and specific. In hundreds of letters submitted to the administration in recent weeks, producers of uranium, shrimp, T-shirts and steel highlighted the unfair trade treatment they faced, in hopes of bending the president’s trade agenda in their favor. The complaints varied from Brazil’s high tariffs on ethanol and pet food, to India’s high levies on almonds and pecans, to Japan’s longstanding barriers to American potatoes.Mr. Trump has promised to overhaul the global trading system on April 2, when he plans to impose what he is calling “reciprocal tariffs” that will match the levies and other policies that countries impose on American exports. The president has taken to calling this “liberation day,” arguing that it will end years of other countries “ripping us off.”On Monday, Mr. Trump appeared to suggest a potential softening to the tariffs, saying, “I may give a lot of countries breaks.” He added, “It’s reciprocal, but we may be even nicer than that.”“They’ve charged us so much that I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us,” he said at an event at the White House. “But it’ll be substantial.”Mr. Trump also signaled that the White House could finalize tariffs on foreign-made cars before April 2, teasing that an announcement could come “fairly soon, over the next few days probably.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Why the Shipping Industry Isn’t Rushing Back to the Red Sea

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    The companies that operate large container ships say they plan to keep going around Africa as violence flares in the region.When President Trump ordered military strikes last weekend against the Houthi militia in Yemen, he said the militia’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea had harmed global trade.“These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and World Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars while, at the same time, putting innocent lives at risk,” he said on Truth Social.But getting shipping companies to return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal could take many months and is likely to require more than airstrikes against the Houthis. For over a year, ocean carriers have overwhelmingly avoided the Red Sea, sending ships around Africa’s southern tip to get from Asia to Europe, a voyage that is some 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days longer.The shipping industry has largely adapted to the disruption, and has even profited from the surge in shipping rates after the Houthis began attacking commercial ships in late 2023 in support of Hamas in its war with Israel.Shipping executives say they do not plan to return to the Red Sea until there is a broad Middle East peace accord that includes the Houthis or a decisive defeat of the militia, which is backed by Iran.“It’s either a full degradation of their capabilities or there is some type of deal,” Vincent Clerc, the chief executive of Maersk, a shipping line based in Copenhagen, said in February.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, but Trump’s Tariffs Could Slow Inflation Progress

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    The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a second straight meeting. The March meeting was the central bank’s most direct acknowledgment to date that President Trump’s policies are set to have a real impact on the economy, stoking significant uncertainty about where inflation, growth and — ultimately — interest rates are headed. Here are the takeaways:Tariffs took center stage during the news conference with Jerome H. Powell. The Fed chair went as far as saying that tariffs likely mean “further progress may be delayed” on getting inflation back to the central bank’s 2 percent target. That recognition materialized in the higher inflation forecasts that officials penciled into new economic projections. By the end of the year, officials estimate that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, will stay stuck at 2.8 percent, before declining to 2.2 percent in 2027.Fed officials paired their higher inflation forecast with lower estimates for economic growth, even as they stuck with previous projections that they would be able to lower interest rates by a half point this year, delivering two quarter-point cuts. The range of possible outcomes was wide, however, with eight policymakers forecasting either no additional cuts or just one this year. Only two thought the Fed would lower rates by 0.75 percentage points, or three cuts of a quarter point this year.In recent months, Mr. Powell has been adamant that the Fed is well positioned to respond to sharp shifts in the trajectory for the economy and could afford to be patient about making rate decisions given the solid foundation of the labor market. He reiterated that point, pushing back on the souring of consumer expectations about inflation and economy that has shown up in recent survey data.While the path forward for interest rates and the economy was the main focus of the March meeting, the Fed’s decision to slow the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet drew some attention. Mr. Powell said the idea was to reduce the possibility of market ructions in funding markets. More