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    Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime.

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    Two dozen trade experts gathered recently to simulate how a global trade war would play out. The results were surprisingly optimistic.The world’s biggest powers were deep in a trade war. Economic losses from the tariffs that President Trump had imposed on most of the world, along with global retaliation, were accumulating. Jobs were being lost, inflation was ticking up and the world was both frustrated with and anxious about the United States.While the stakes were real, the trade war was not. Instead, it was a simulation to better understand how a global trade fight might unfold.Last month, two dozen trade experts from the United States and other countries gathered at a Washington think tank to try to simulate what could happen if Mr. Trump moves ahead with his plan to impose punishing tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners.Teams representing China, Europe, the United States and other governments spent a day running between conference rooms, offering proposals to remove the tariffs and make trade deals to forestall economic collapse.The game, which took place at the Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank focused on security issues, included think tank experts and former officials in the Trump and Biden administrations. The exercise was not aimed at predicting the future. Instead, by acting out what might happen, the participants were trying to reveal some of the dynamics that might be at play as Mr. Trump pursues an aggressive trade approach against allies and adversaries alike.In the last two months, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as levies on global steel and aluminum imports. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump is expected to announce a plan to raise tariff rates on other countries, and his 25 percent tariffs on cars and auto parts will go into effect on Thursday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration Tallies Trade Barriers That Could Prompt Tariffs

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    The Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report highlighting foreign trade barriers that could influence tariffs the president puts into effect this week.President Trump is set to announce on Wednesday global tariffs that he says will combat unfair trade treatment by other countries and make sure American exporters remain competitive.On Monday, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a wide-ranging report on foreign trade barriers that could hint at some of the trade battles the Trump administration aims to fight.In an annual report, the office listed the most important barriers to U.S. exports in dozens of countries. Those obstacles included tariffs, but also laws, regulations and policies that the administration said undermine competition. Here are eight of the most consequential trading partners for the United States that could be targeted in the president’s tariff announcements this week.ChinaThe report dedicated almost 50 of its nearly 400 pages to China, which has long been a subject of trade criticism for American officials and companies.The report criticized China as using industrial planning and other policies to support certain sectors it had targeted for “domination,” such as robotics, aerospace, new energy vehicles and biopharmaceuticals. The trade representative’s office argued that those tools sometimes worked by discriminating against or taking advantage of foreign enterprises, and that the program had allowed Chinese firms to win market share at the expense of foreign competitors.The office also pointed out that China had not followed through in rolling out provisions of the trade deal signed with Mr. Trump in his first term, including commitments to open up its agricultural market and protect U.S. intellectual property. Trade data also shows that China fell far short of commitments it made to purchase U.S. goods and services in 2020 and 2021, the report said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    American Wealth Is at a Record High. Sentiment Is Low, and Falling.

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    America is more prosperous than ever.U.S. household net worth reached a new peak at the end of 2024. The unemployment rate has levitated just above record lows for three years. The overall debt that households are carrying compared with the assets they own is also near a record low.But even a land of plenty has its shortcomings, influencing both perceptions and realities of how Americans are doing.The U.S. economy remains deeply unequal, with vast gaps in wealth and financial security persisting even as inflation has ebbed and incomes have risen. And data designed to capture the overall population may be obscuring challenges experienced by a broad range of Americans, especially those in the bottom half of the wealth or income spectrum. More

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    Trump’s Tariff Agenda Bets on Americans Giving Up Cheap Goods

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    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that the American dream is about more than cheap televisions, but inflation-weary consumers might disagree.Follow the latest news on the Trump administration.President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are expected to raise the cost of cars, electronics, metals, lumber, pharmaceuticals and other products that American consumers and businesses buy from overseas.But Mr. Trump and his advisers are betting that they can sell an inflation-weary public on a provocative idea: Cheap stuff is not the American dream.“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars,” Mr. Trump said on NBC’s Meet the Press show on Sunday in response to fears of foreign car prices spiking.The notion that there is more to life than low-cost imports is an acknowledgment that tariffs could impose additional costs on Americans. It is also a pitch that the burden will be worth it. Mr. Trump’s ability to convince consumers that it is acceptable to pay more to support domestic manufacturing and adhere to his “America First” agenda could determine whether the president’s second term is a success or a calamity.But it is not an easy sell. The onslaught of tariffs has roiled markets and dampened consumer confidence. Auto tariffs that go into effect on Thursday will add a 25 percent tax on imports of cars and car parts, likely upending pricing in the sector. Mr. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 20 percent on Chinese goods and more are expected later this week, when the president announces his “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners, including those in Asia and Europe.In confronting anxiety over the trade uncertainty, Mr. Trump and his top economic aides have resorted to asking Americans to think about the bigger picture. They espouse the view that Mr. Trump’s trade wars are necessary to correct decades of economic injustice and that paying a bit more should be a matter of national pride.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Estimates Imply That Trump Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

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    President Trump has said that the global tariffs he plans to announce this week will correct decades of unfair relationships and stop other countries from ripping off the United States. But whether the president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs will result in higher levies on other nations or lower ones remains unclear.The president has described his global tariffs as a negotiating tool that could force other countries to drop their trade barriers to American products and result in more goods flowing across borders.But the president has also talked about the tariffs as a way to raise revenue for the government and shift supply chains back to the United States. For those goals to be accomplished, relatively high tariffs would have to be imposed, and not dropped.Those conflicting goals will come to a head this week, when Mr. Trump is expected to reveal the details of his reciprocal tariff plan. Mr. Trump has taken to calling April 2 “liberation day,” saying it will represent the country breaking free of past trade relationships that he says have hurt the United States.It’s not yet clear what Mr. Trump will announce. His advisers have been weighing several different strategies and legal authorities, some of which would be more focused on raising revenue, and others that would be geared toward negotiations and opening global markets, three people familiar with the plans said. Some of the plans under consideration could take effect immediately, while others would take more time but be more insulated from legal challenges.Mr. Trump will be the ultimate decision maker, as recent tariff actions have shown. Some of his own advisers, along with the business community, have been surprised by some of the actions he’s announced in recent weeks, such as placing levies on auto parts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Science Funding Cuts May Hurt Economy, Experts Say

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    Since World War II, U.S. research funding has led to discoveries that fueled economic gains. Now cutbacks are seen as putting that legacy in jeopardy.President Trump’s tariffs could drive up prices. His efforts to reduce the federal work force could increase unemployment. But ask economists which of the administration’s policies they are most concerned about and many point to cuts to federal support for scientific research.The Trump administration in recent weeks has canceled or frozen billions of dollars in federal grants made to researchers through the National Institutes of Health, and has moved to sharply curtail funding for academic medical centers and other institutions. It has also, through the initiative called the Department of Government Efficiency, tried to fire hundreds of workers at the National Science Foundation, an independent federal agency. And it has revoked the visas of hundreds of foreign-born students.To economists, the policies threaten to undermine U.S. competitiveness in emerging areas like artificial intelligence, and to leave Americans as a whole poorer, less healthy and less productive in the decades ahead.“Universities are tremendously important engines of innovation,” said Sabrina Howell, a New York University professor who has studied the role of the federal government in supporting innovation. “This is really killing the goose that lays the golden egg.”Scientists have warned that the United States risks losing its status as a leader in cutting-edge research and its reputation as a magnet for top scientific minds from around the world.Already, labs across the country have begun laying off workers and canceling projects — in some cases stopping clinical trials that were already underway — and top universities including Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania have announced hiring freezes. France and other countries have begun recruiting American scientists, promising a more welcoming environment.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Inflation Remained Sticky Ahead of Trump’s Escalating Trade War

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    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure showed underlying price pressures persisting in February.Americans hoping for some relief on inflation suffered a setback in February, as new data showed underlying price pressures intensifying even before the latest escalation in President Trump’s trade war.The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, after stripping out volatile food and energy items, climbed 2.8 percent in February from a year earlier, outpacing January’s annual pace. On a monthly basis, these prices ticked up another 0.4 percent, higher than the monthly increase in January.Overall inflation came in at 2.5 percent, a level that sits well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and has been more or less in place since November.The latest data from the Commerce Department highlights the extent of the challenge the central bank is confronting. Its debate over what to do about interest rates has been complicated by a rapidly escalating trade war, one that has bred extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook.On Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on cars and car parts imported into the United States and has vowed to unveil another set of tariffs next week.With the scope and scale of the tariffs not yet clear, and a host of other policies pertaining to immigration, taxes and deregulation still being worked out, the Fed has opted to stand pat until it gets more clarity about what exactly Mr. Trump will enforce and how consumers and businesses will respond.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Imported Cars and Car Parts

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    President Trump said on Wednesday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on cars and car parts that were imported into the United States, a move that could encourage U.S. auto production over the longer run but is likely to throw global supply chains into disarray and raise prices for Americans who buy an automobile.The tariffs will go into effect on April 3 and apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States and to imported parts that are included in cars assembled at American auto plants. Those tariffs will hit foreign brands as well as American ones, like Ford Motor and General Motors, which assemble some automobiles outside the country, including in Canada or Mexico.Nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts in vehicles assembled in the United States. That means the tariffs could push up car prices significantly when inflation has already made cars and trucks more expensive for American consumers.During remarks at the White House, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would encourage auto companies and their suppliers to set up shop in the United States.“Anybody who has plants in the United States, it’s going to be good for,” he said.But the auto industry is global and has been built up around trade agreements that allow factories in different countries to specialize in certain parts or types of cars, with the expectation that they would face little to no tariffs. That has been particularly true for North America, where national auto sectors have been stitched together by trade agreements since the 1960s.Stock markets fell on news that the auto tariffs would be imposed. Shares of major carmakers tumbled further in after-hours trading, after the White House clarified that the tariffs would also cover imported auto parts. General Motors was down nearly 7 percent and Ford and Stellantis were more than 4 percent lower after the markets closed. Tesla’s stock fell 1 percent in extended trading.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More