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    Fed Under Pressure as Inflation Expectations Surge

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    Federal Reserve officials have had one clear message since President Trump sharply escalated the global trade war this month. Keeping inflation expectations in check as price pressures rise is their No. 1 priority.On Friday, they faced a big setback.A new survey released by the University of Michigan found that as consumer sentiment took another nosedive because of fears associated with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, expectations about inflation — in the year ahead and over a longer time horizon — jumped sharply.Over the next 12 months, respondents now expect inflation to surge to 6.7 percent, the highest reading since 1981 and a significant increase from the March level of 5 percent. In five years’ time, they are bracing for inflation to stay stuck above 4 percent. The Fed’s goal is 2 percent inflation.There are reasons to take this data with a grain of salt. For one, the survey tends to reflect political biases. Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Democrats, once optimistic about the outlook, have turned much more downbeat, about not only inflation but also growth and the labor market. Republicans, meanwhile, have flipped from being far more pessimistic during Biden’s presidency to much more positive.On the margins, that political divide may be beginning to narrow, with the decline in sentiment in April “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” according to Joanne W. Hsu, director of the consumer surveys. Independents are also starting to change their opinions in a distinct way, accounting for a large part of the rise in longer-run inflation expectations.What has helped to somewhat alleviate concerns about the survey findings is the fact that market measures of longer-run inflation expectations, which are based on U.S. government bonds, have stayed far more stable. The divergence has been so stark as to prompt Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, to refer to the University of Michigan survey as an “outlier,” as recently as last month.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The ‘China Shock’ Offers a Lesson. It Isn’t the One Trump Has Learned.

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    When Congress voted to normalize trade relations with China at the beginning of this century, U.S. manufacturers braced for a stream of cheap goods to begin flowing into U.S. ports.Instead, they got a flood. Imports from China nearly tripled from 1999 to 2005, and American factories, with their higher wages and stricter safety standards, couldn’t compete. The “China shock,” as it has come to be known, wiped out millions of jobs in the years that followed, leaving lasting scars on communities from Michigan to Mississippi.To President Trump and his supporters, those job losses are an object lesson in the damage caused by decades of U.S. trade policy — damage he promises that his tariffs will now help to reverse. On Wednesday, he further raised duties on imports from China, well beyond 100 percent, even as he suspended steep tariffs he had imposed on other trading partners.Few economists endorse the idea that the United States should try to bring back manufacturing jobs en masse. Even fewer believe that tariffs would be an effective tool for doing so.But economists who have studied the issue also argue that Mr. Trump misunderstands the nature of the China shock. The real lesson of the episode wasn’t about trade at all, they say — it was about the toll that rapid economic changes can take on workers and communities — and by failing to understand that, Mr. Trump risks repeating the mistakes he claims he has vowed to correct.“For the last 20 years we’ve been hearing about the China shock and how brutal it was and how people can’t adjust,” said Scott Lincicome, a trade economist at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization. “And finally, after most places have moved on, now we’re shocking them again.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact Apparel Companies That Make Clothing in the U.S.

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    On the open 15th floor of a loft building in Midtown Manhattan, about a dozen skilled workers make their way through piles of pants, stitching each piece together with focus and precision. Some of the items are designed by Outlier, a fashion brand that produces its smaller runs and experimental products with the garment district’s ecosystem of contract manufacturers.It’s the kind of work that should get a boost from the stiff tariffs newly imposed on products entering the United States from nearly every other country. But the storeroom where Outlier keeps its fabric tells a more complicated story.The rolls of cloth and boxes of recycled goose down come from Italy and Switzerland, Thailand and New Zealand, countries with specialized industries developed over generations that are unlikely to be recreated in America. Take the linen, made from flax grown in a coastal region stretching from northern France to the Netherlands.“It would take a decade to get a crop growing,” said Tyler Clemens, Outlier’s co-founder. A linen shipment was headed for the cutting room; Mr. Clemens had just gotten the bill from the Department of Homeland Security with a charge labeled “IEEPA-RECIPROCAL,” after the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, one of the laws used to justify President Trump’s tariff measures.A fabric order for Outlier arriving at a factory in Manhattan. The fabric was made in Japan and dyed in Portugal before being shipped to the United States, where it incurred a tariff.Karsten Moran for The New York TimesOutlier’s material comes from abroad, as do some of its finished products. Karsten Moran for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariff Reversal Calms Some G.O.P. Nerves, but Questions Linger

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    President Trump’s whipsawing tariff policy has prompted bipartisan alarm on Capitol Hill, where Democrats are outraged and Republicans are caught between their deep opposition to tariffs and fear of criticizing Mr. Trump.The president’s abrupt announcement on Wednesday that he would halt most of his reciprocal tariffs for 90 days just a week after announcing them allayed the immediate concerns of some G.O.P. lawmakers, many of whom rushed to praise Mr. Trump for what they characterized as deal-making mastery.But behind those statements was a deep well of nervousness among Republican lawmakers who are hearing angst from their constituents and donors about the impact of Mr. Trump’s trade moves on the financial markets and the economy. Some of them have begun signing onto measures that would end the tariffs altogether or claw back Congress’s power to block the president from imposing such levies in the future.“I’m just trying to figure out whose throat I get to choke if it’s wrong, and who I put up on a platform and thank them for the novel approach that was successful if they’re right,” Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, said of the sweeping tariffs on Tuesday during a hearing with Jamieson Greer, the Trump administration’s top trade official.On Wednesday, after Mr. Trump pulled back most of the tariffs but retained a 10 percent tariff rate for most countries and announced additional penalties on China, Mr. Tillis still sounded anxious. He said the move was likely to “reduce some of the escalation,” but added that there was still considerable work to be done to prevent another market meltdown.“We’ve got to get a deal before we get rid of uncertainty,” he told reporters soon after Mr. Trump announced the change in a social media post.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs: From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’

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    Economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused President Trump to reverse course on the steep levies.For the past week, President Trump has been urging calm in the face of the financial chaos that he created and resisting calls for him to rethink his approach.“I know what the hell I’m doing,” he told Republicans on Tuesday as the massive tariffs he had imposed sent global markets into a tailspin. “BE COOL!” he said in a social media post on Wednesday morning. “Everything is going to work out well.”At 9:37 a.m. Wednesday, the president was still bullish on his policy, posting on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”But in the end, it was the markets that got him to reverse course.The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.Asked to explain the decision, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”Behind the scenes, senior members of Mr. Trump’s team had feared a financial panic that could spiral out of control and potentially devastate the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others on the president’s team, including Vice President JD Vance, had been pushing for a more structured approach to the trade conflict that would focus on isolating China as the worst actor while still sending a broader message that Mr. Trump was serious about cracking down on trade imbalances.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Bond Sell Off Raises Questions About U.S. Safe Haven Status

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    A sharp sell-off in U.S. government bond markets and the dollar has set off fears about the growing fallout from President Trump’s tariffs, raising questions about what is typically seen as the safest corner for investors during times of turmoil.Yields on 10-year Treasuries — the benchmark for a wide variety of debt — whipsawed on Wednesday after Mr. Trump paused the bulk of the levies he had threatened the week before and raised the rates charged on Chinese goods after that country retaliated. The reversal sent U.S. stocks soaring.After the announcement, the 10-year bond traded at 4.35 percent, slightly lower than earlier in the day but still well above recent levels. Just a few days ago, it had traded below 4 percent. Yields on the 30-year bond reversed an earlier rise that had lifted it above 5 percent. It now stands at 4.74 percent. Selling intensified for short-term government bonds, with the two-year yield surging nearly 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent.Amid the tumult, other markets considered alternative safe havens to the United States have gained. Yields on German government bonds, which serve as the benchmark for the eurozone, fell on Wednesday, indicating strong demand. Gold prices rose, too.The U.S.-centric volatility comes on the heels of investors fleeing riskier assets globally in what some fear had parallels to an episode known as the “dash for cash” during the pandemic, when the Treasury market broke down. The recent moves have upended a longstanding relationship in which the U.S. government bond market serves as a safe harbor during times of stress.Adding to Wednesday’s angst was the fact that the U.S. dollar, which is the world’s dominant currency and was largely expected to strengthen as Mr. Trump’s tariffs came into effect, had instead weakened. It shaved some of those losses after the administration’s announcement.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Reverses Course on Global Tariffs, Announcing 90-Day Pause

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    The president further raised already steep tariffs on China, saying that Beijing should not have retaliated against his earlier trade actions.President Trump on Wednesday abruptly reversed course on steep global tariffs that have roiled markets, upset members of his own party and raised fears of a recession. Just hours after he put punishing levies into place on nearly 60 countries, the president said he would pause them for 90 days.But Mr. Trump did not extend that pause to China, opting instead to raise tariffs again on all Chinese imports, bringing those taxes to a whopping 125 percent. That decision came after Beijing raised its levies on American goods to 84 percent on Wednesday afternoon in an escalating tit-for-tat between the world’s largest economies.In a post on Truth Social, the president said that he had authorized “a 90 day PAUSE” in which countries would face “a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff” of 10 percent. As a result, nearly every U.S. trading partner now faces a 10 percent blanket tariff, on top of 25 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on cars, steel and aluminum.Slumping markets quickly rallied after Mr. Trump’s post. The S&P 500 climbed several percentage points in a matter of minutes and closed with a rise of more than 9 percent, sharply reversing days of losses. Wednesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.Nearly every stock in the index rose. Airlines, some tech companies and Tesla were among those companies to soar over 20 percent. Shares of automakers rose sharply even though 25 percent tariffs on imported cars remain in place. Ford and General Motors both rose more than 7 percent.Mr. Trump, who for days had insisted he was not concerned about the market rout, acknowledged on Wednesday that the downturn had fed into his decision.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Delta Warns Trump’s Trade War Will Weigh on the Economy

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    Delta Air Lines on Wednesday became one of the largest American companies to warn that President Trump’s escalating trade war was weighing on its business and the global economy.Speaking before Mr. Trump reversed many of the tariffs he had just imposed on most countries, Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said a recession was possible as companies pulled back spending. “Everyone’s being prepared for uncertainty,” he told CNBC, “if that continues, and we don’t get resolution soon, we will probably end up in a recession.”Mr. Trump’s announcement helped send Delta stock up over 20 percent on Wednesday and prompted a broad rally in stocks. The president said he would pause the high tariffs for 90 days but kept a 10 percent tariff on most countries in place.Still, the president’s reversal might not be enough to dispel the uncertainty that has made it hard for companies to plan ahead. The Trump administration also said on Wednesday that it would significantly raise tariffs on China. The United States might not strike trade deals with other countries within 90 days.Airlines are highly sensitive to changes in the economy because air travel is among the first things that individuals and businesses can cut back on when they are worried about their paychecks or profits.Mr. Bastian expressed shock at the speed at which the trade tensions had taken the wind out of the economy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More