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    Trump’s Unpredictable Tariffs Cloud Europe’s Economic Outlook

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    Policymakers are grappling with “exceptionally high” uncertainty, Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said on Wednesday, just hours after the European Commission announced tariffs on U.S. imports in response to levies imposed by the Trump administration. Later, Canada announced a new round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports.The unpredictability of trade policy and geopolitics, which is likely to mean more large economic shocks, will make it harder for central bankers to keep inflation at their 2 percent target, Ms. Lagarde said.There was a somewhat bewildered mood among some of the E.C.B. officials, economists and analysts at an annual gathering held in Frankfurt, where Ms. Lagarde delivered her speech. Participants reflected on the rapidly shifting economic environment stemming from the escalating trade tensions and a substantial increase in military spending planned by European countries, particularly Germany.Under different circumstances, this year’s conference could have seemed like more of a celebration: Inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.4 percent in February, near the central bank’s target, and policymakers have been able to cut interest rates six times since the middle of last year.Instead, President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs, and his shifting policies on military aid to Ukraine, are unnerving European leaders. In response, European officials are proposing to borrow more to fund defense and infrastructure investments, significantly altering the region’s fiscal situation. The conference began with one speaker emphasizing the importance of preparing for war in order to avoid war.“Established certainties about the international order have been upended,” Ms. Lagarde said. “Some alliances have become strained while others have drawn closer. We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago.”When introducing a panel, François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the French central bank, said, “We are aware this environment can change tweet by tweet from one day to the next.” He invited panelists to begin their presentations but noted they could be referring to something that may be reversed by the same afternoon.“We live in a world not only of uncertainty, but still more unpredictability and still more, these last days, irrationality,” he said. More

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    What Products Could Europe Levy in Retaliation to Trump’s Tariffs?

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    The European Union is putting tariffs on a range of products from the United States in retaliation to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and items that come from Republican-held states rank high on the hit list.The European Union plans to institute the tariffs in two phases: The first wave will take hold on April 1, and will impact goods that already had tariffs applied during Mr. Trump’s first term, such as bourbon, boats and motorcycles. For certain products like whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, those tariffs would be as much as a crushing 50 percent.The second wave is still being figured out, though the list of products that could be affected is already public — and is 99 pages long. In that phase, the E.U. is planning to add levies to goods worth about 18 billion euros, or 19.6 billion dollars, and is aiming for them to go into effect on April 13.The proposed goods include:Poultry, beef and porkSoybeansWine and sparkling wineBeerPants, shirts and other clothingHandbagsRefrigeratorsWashing machinesMowersExactly what those tariffs will look like remains to be seen. For now, Europe is consulting consumers, companies and policymakers across the 27-nation bloc as it finalizes the list. Many of the potential targets are largely produced in Republican-held areas, such as crops from the Louisiana district that elected Mike Johnson, the House speaker, and livestock from Nebraska and Kansas.The goal? Officials want to hit America where it hurts in order to force the United States to the negotiating table, while doing as little damage as possible to Europeans. More

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    Trump Pulls Back Plans to Double Canadian Metal Tariffs After Ontario Relents

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    President Trump escalated his fight with Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and pressing to turn one of America’s closest traditional allies into the 51st state. After several tense hours, both sides backed down, at least for now.It was the latest in a week of chaotic trade moves, in which the president startled investors and businesses that depend on trade and clashed with some of the country’s closest trading partners.In a post on his social media platform Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump wrote that Canadian steel and aluminum would face a 50 percent tariff, double what he plans to charge on metals from other countries beginning Wednesday. He said the levies were in response to an additional charge that Ontario had placed on electricity coming into the United States, which was in turn a response to tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on Canada last week.By Tuesday afternoon, leaders had begun to relent. The premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, said he would suspend the electricity surcharge, and Mr. Trump said at the White House he would “probably” reduce the tariff on Canadian metals.Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said Tuesday afternoon that Mr. Trump’s threats had succeeded in getting Canada to back down. “President Trump has once again used the leverage of the American economy, which is the best and biggest in the world, to deliver a win for the American people,” he said.As a result, he said that Canada would face the same 25 percent tariff on metals as all of America’s trading partners will when they go into effect at midnight. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies and Markets Off Balance

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    On Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on Fox Business to reassure nervous allies and even more twitchy investors that the Trump administration was negotiating a deal to avoid tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and that the president is “gonna work something out with them.”“It’s not going to be a pause” for Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs, he insisted. “None of that pause stuff.”On Thursday, the world got what the president characterized as more of that pause stuff.Mr. Trump’s announcement that he had a good conversation with Mexico’s president, and would delay most tariffs until April 2, was only the latest example of the punish-by-whim nature of the second Trump presidency. A few hours after the Mexico announcement, Canada got a break too, even as Mr. Trump on social media accused its departing prime minister, Justin Trudeau, of using “the Tariff problem” to “run again for Prime Minister.”“So much fun to watch!” he wrote.Indeed, it appears that Mr. Trump is having enormous fun turning tariffs on and off like tap water. But others are developing a case of Trump-induced whiplash, not least investors, who sent stock prices down again on Thursday amid the uncertainty over what Mr. Trump’s inconstancy means for the global economy. (A later rise in stock futures pointed to rosier expectations for Friday.)When the White House finally released the text of Mr. Trump’s orders on Thursday evening, it appeared that some of the tariffs — those covered in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and celebrated in his first term — were indeed permanently suspended. Other tariffs were merely paused.Most everyone involved was confused, which may well have been the point.As Mr. Trump hands down tariff determinations and then pulls them back for a month or so, world leaders call to plead their case, a bit like vassal states appealing to a larger power. Chief executives put in calls as well, making it clear that Mr. Trump is the one you need to deal with if you are bringing in car parts from Canada or chips from China.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Suspends Mexico and Canada Tariffs on USMCA Goods for a Month

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    Two days after imposing sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, President Trump on Thursday abruptly suspended many of those levies, sowing confusion with investors and businesses that depend on trade with the countries.The president said he would allow products that are traded under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact he signed in his first term, to avoid the stiff 25 percent tariffs he imposed just days ago on two of America’s largest trading partners.The suspension effectively abandons many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump had placed on Canadian and Mexican products — levies he said were necessary to stem the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.His decision came a day after he said he would grant a 30-day reprieve to automakers, who had complained to the president that the levies would cause severe damage to U.S. carmakers. Mr. Trump implied that any relief would be short-lived, saying that other tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products are coming in April.Mr. Trump’s chaotic, stop-and-start approach has sent stock markets tumbling and generated anxiety among industries that depend on trade with Canada and Mexico, which account for more than a quarter of U.S. imports and nearly a third of U.S. exports. After Mr. Trump imposed his tariffs, Canada retaliated with levies on $20.5 billion worth of American goods, including agricultural products, and Mexico was threatening to impose its own import taxes on U.S. goods on Sunday if Mr. Trump did not relent.Still, the decision to suspend the tariffs did little to calm financial markets, which have been jittery since Mr. Trump ratcheted up his trade war earlier this week. In addition to hitting Canada and Mexico, Mr. Trump placed a second 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, prompting another round of retaliation from Beijing on American products. The president has not suspended any of his levies on China. More

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    South Africa’s Play to Ease Tensions With Trump: A New Trade Deal

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    Lawmakers were warned that the United States is planning more punitive actions against the country. Officials hope a new trade deal will help repair the icy relations.South Africa is preparing a new trade offer to present to President Trump, hoping to appeal to his transactional approach to foreign policy and ease boiling tensions with Washington, a spokesman for South Africa’s president said this week.The spokesman, Vincent Magwenya, said in an interview that South African officials are anticipating Mr. Trump will call for an end to the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a decades-old trade agreement that has been an economic boon to the 32 African nations that it includes.The act allows billions of dollars worth of goods — from produce to cars — from sub-Saharan Africa to enter the United States without duties. It is scheduled to expire this year but could be reauthorized by Congress.Although officials in South Africa hope the program will be renewed, they plan to offer the United States a bilateral deal that would increase trade in sectors such as energy, Mr. Magwenya said.A future without the African Growth and Opportunity Act would represent a significant shift for the continent’s largest economy. South Africa has for years lobbied against threats to expel it from the program on the grounds that its economy had grown too advanced. South African officials argue that the African Growth and Opportunity Act has kept businesses confident in the South African economy, helped maintain stability across the continent and fostered a healthy relationship with the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Latest Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Could Be His Biggest Gamble

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    President Trump has offered a mix of reasons for upending global trade relations, baffling and angering America’s biggest trading partners.President Trump made one of the biggest gambles of his presidency Tuesday by initiating sweeping tariffs with no clear rationale on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, triggering a trade war that risks undermining the United States economy.His actions have upended diplomatic relations with America’s largest trading partners, sent markets tumbling, and provoked retaliation on U.S. products — leaving businesses, investors and economists puzzled as to why Mr. Trump would create such upheaval without extended negotiations or clear reasoning.Mr. Trump has offered up a variety of explanations for the tariffs, saying they are punishment for other countries’ failure to stop drugs and migrants from flowing into the United States, a way to force manufacturing back to America and retribution for countries that take advantage of the United States. On Tuesday, he cited Canada’s hostility toward American banks as another reason.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it was difficult to understand Mr. Trump’s rationale for the tariffs but posited that his intent was to cripple Canada. “What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” Mr. Trudeau said during a news conference on Tuesday. “That’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state.”Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said Tuesday afternoon that the president might reach some sort of accommodation with Canada and Mexico and announce it on Wednesday. “I think he’s going to figure out, you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle some way,” Mr. Lutnick said.Canada announced a series of retaliatory tariffs on $20.5 billion worth of American imports, and Mr. Trudeau said that other “non-tariff” measures were forthcoming.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Canada and China Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariffs, Amid Fears of Trade War

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    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada warned that the Trump administration’s tariffs were leading to a trade war. Mexico’s leader vowed to impose countermeasures on Sunday.Sweeping tariffs imposed by President Trump threatened economic upheaval for consumers and businesses in the United States on Tuesday as the country’s biggest trading partners struck back, raising fears of a burgeoning trade war.Canada and China swiftly condemned the U.S. tariffs and announced retaliatory tariffs against American exports. President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said that if the U.S. tariffs were still in place on Sunday, she, too, would announce countermeasures.“This is a time to hit back hard and to demonstrate that a fight with Canada will have no winners,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said in a stern and, at times, biting address on Tuesday.The U.S. tariffs were a stark turnabout from the free-trade evangelism that has marked much of postwar American foreign policy. The measures amounted to 25 percent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. They came on top of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods put into effect one month ago and a variety of older levies, including those that remain from the China trade war during Mr. Trump’s first term.Amid the tariff dispute, the niceties and flattery that some foreign leaders had employed in the first weeks of the Trump administration seemed to fall away.Addressing Mr. Trump as “Donald,” Mr. Trudeau said at a news conference in Ottawa: “You’re a very smart guy. But this is a very dumb thing to do.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More