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    Undocumented Workers, Fearing Deportation, Are Staying Home

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    Fearing roundups, many immigrants are staying home. Construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality employers say labor shortages will worsen.The railroad tracks that slice through downtown Freehold, N.J., used to be lined by dozens of men, waiting for work. Each morning, the men — day laborers, almost all from Latin America and undocumented — would be scooped up by local contractors in pickup trucks for jobs painting, landscaping, removing debris.In recent weeks, the tracks have been desolate. On a gray February morning, a laborer named Mario, who came from Mexico two decades ago, said it was the quietest he could remember.“Because of the president, we have a fear,” said Mario, 55, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that only his first name would be used because he is undocumented. His two sons are also in the United States illegally; one works in paving, the other in home construction. “We are in difficult times,” he said.This scene has been playing out on the streets of Freehold, on the farms of California’s Central Valley, in nursing homes in Arizona, in Georgia poultry plants and in Chicago restaurants.President Trump has broadcast plans for a “mass deportation,” and the opening weeks of his second term have brought immigration enforcement operations in cities across the United States, providing a daily drumbeat of arrests that, while so far relatively limited, are quickly noted in group chats among migrants.Fear has gripped America’s undocumented workers. Many are staying home.The impact is being felt not only in immigrant homes and communities, but also in the industries that rely on immigrants as a source of willing and inexpensive labor, including residential construction, agriculture, senior care and hospitality. American consumers will soon feel the pain.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares169 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Disrupt St. Louis’s Growth Strategy

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    At a high-traffic intersection on the south side of St. Louis, in a former bank building complete with a glassy atrium, it’s time for sewing class — held in Dari, the Afghan variant of Persian.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryThe walls are hung with photos of Afghanistan, from which most of the students have recently arrived. Before class starts, a handful of women in sneakers and head scarves first go to another room for prayer, while their younger children scamper around a well-equipped play room. They return to dated sewing machines, learning how to run tiny businesses from their homes as they acclimate to their new country.The two-year-old Afghan Community Center has been an anchor for Halima Osmani, 20, who arrived from Afghanistan last summer with her parents and seven siblings. She now runs her own tailoring business, selling to local women through an Instagram account, while she works on getting her G.E.D. Eventually, she wants to become a physician assistant, and St. Louis seems like a good place to fulfill her dreams.“Our first choice was Virginia, but we ended up here and liked it,” Ms. Osmani said through a translator; she is still learning English. “The first thing we noticed here was that it wasn’t crowded.”Not being crowded — that’s both a problem and an opportunity for the grand but diminished city, which has been losing population for decades. The city’s politicians, business community, religious institutions and philanthropists have embraced a push to reverse that trend through immigration. In addition to refugees like Ms. Osmani, they’re trying to attract people from Central and South America, as well as international students and highly skilled professionals on employment visas.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares189 Views

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    Trump’s Tariffs Could Help Tesla, by Hurting Its Rivals More

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    The electric car company led by Elon Musk builds all the cars it sells in the United States in California and Texas, shielding it from tariffs that could devastate competitors.As President Trump puts new tariffs on goods from China and threatens a trade war with allies like Mexico and Canada, one global company is likely to suffer less than most of its competitors: Tesla.But the electric car maker led by Elon Musk, which accounts for a third of the billionaire’s wealth, is also vulnerable if relations with China worsen. That country is the company’s second-largest market after the United States and it produces more cars there than anywhere else.Tesla has built largely self-sufficient supply chains in the United States and China, a rarity in a world of interconnected trade. As a result, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods, and the continuing threat to put them on Mexican and Canadian products, might help Tesla by hurting its competitors more.Although there is no evidence that Mr. Musk is shaping trade policies, the tariffs are one of several measures adopted by the Trump administration that may benefit Tesla at the expense of its rivals. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump paused 25 percent tariffs on most autos and parts made in Canada and Mexico, but the reprieve expires in a month, leaving automakers in the United States that depend on foreign supply chains in a state of uncertainty.The Tesla factory in Austin, Texas, in 2023. Cars produced here will be shielded from tariffs that will hurt Tesla competitors. Go Nakamura/ReutersThe administration is also trying to eliminate financial support for the construction of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles, a move that could handicap companies seeking to compete with Tesla’s extensive network. And it is attempting to cut or eliminate loans and subsidies that competitors like Ford Motor and Rivian are using to finance electric vehicle and battery factories.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 163 Shares199 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Delay on Mexico and Canada Tariffs Came in Response to Market Revolt

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    With prices still high, the Trump administration is heeding the risks of fanning inflation with import duties.A month ago, President Trump announced that he would impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico before reaching a last-minute deal to delay them for 30 days.This week, after markets revolted when the tariffs were put in place, Mr. Trump watered them down with a monthlong reprieve for automakers.And then on Thursday, he opened up even broader exemptions for many other products that are imported from America’s neighbors to the north and south after intense lobbying from business groups that warned of rising prices.Mr. Trump has spent the last month or so bouncing between imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and delaying them because of last-minute deals.“There will,” he said, “always be changes and adjustments.”Despite Mr. Trump’s insistence that “tariff” is among his favorite words, the waffling over import duties reflects the reality that steep import taxes are not an antidote for every policy problem facing the nation.Mr. Trump’s economic advisers continue to contend that the tariffs are part of a broader agenda that will not damage the economy. However, the delays and loopholes reveal that they are beginning to see the risks of taking tariffs too far at a time when the economy is showing signs of strain and consumers are still reeling from inflation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 188 Shares159 Views

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    Powell Says the Fed Is in No Hurry to Adjust Rates Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty

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    Jerome H. Powell says the Fed is focused on separating “signal from the noise,” as the president whipsaws on tariffs.Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said the central bank is focused on the “net effect” of President Trump’s sweeping economic agenda amid high uncertainty about which policies will actually be enacted, as he reiterated that officials are still not in a “hurry” to adjust interest rates.“As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” Mr. Powell said at an event on Friday. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”If inflation stays sticky but the economy remains strong, the Fed chair said the central bank can “maintain policy restraint for longer.” But if either the labor market were to weaken more than expected, or inflation were to rapidly decline, Mr. Powell said officials can “ease policy accordingly.”His comments underscore the delicate balancing act that Fed is trying to navigate at a tenuous moment for the economy.In an interview on Friday, Austan D. Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed and a voting member on this year’s policy-setting committee, warned that a situation in which inflation stayed sticky while growth deteriorated at the same time would be a “harder problem” for the Fed to solve and something that is increasingly “on the radar screen” as a result of the policies that Mr. Trump is pursuing.“Tariffs on intermediate goods are a negative supply shock,” he said, referring to goods that are used to make other products and services for consumers. “If there were large negative supply shocks that were to hit the economy, they would have a tendency to both drive down employment and drive up prices.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares169 Views

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    Jobs Report Is Steady, but Impact of Federal Cutbacks and Tariffs Looms

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    Employers added 151,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said, based on surveys taken as Trump administration policies were still rolling out.It might be a moment of hush before chaos ensues, or it may be business as usual.U.S. employers added 151,000 jobs in February, the first full month under the new Trump administration, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The gain extended a streak of job growth to 50 months. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 4.1 percent, from 4 percent in January.The report showed a decline of 10,000 in federal employment. But it was based on surveys conducted in the second week of February, as the Trump administration’s mass firings, buyouts and hiring freezes at federal agencies were still unfolding.The survey has likely not registered “more than a sliver of the full impact from federal government layoffs,” said Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar. “That should change in next month’s job report.”The monthly change in federal government jobs.

    Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesA similar waiting game is in store for those hoping to ascertain the effects that President Trump’s tariffs — those imposed and those still threatened — may have on global trading partners, business investment and employment.Even without the shake-up in foreign trade and federal employment, private-sector hiring has slowed substantially from the blowout pace of 2021 to 2023. That has left labor market analysts and financial commentators gearing up for a potential cooling in economic growth this year.Unemployment rate More

  • 100 Shares179 Views

    in Economy

    Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook

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    Economic forecasts have deteriorated in recent weeks, reflecting the upheaval from federal layoffs, tariff moves and immigration roundups.President Trump inherited an economy that was, by most conventional measures, firing on all cylinders. Wages, consumer spending and corporate profits were rising. Unemployment was low. The inflation rate, though higher than normal, was falling.Just weeks into Mr. Trump’s term, the outlook is gloomier. Measures of business and consumer confidence have plunged. The stock market has been on a roller-coaster ride. Layoffs are picking up, according to some data. And forecasters are cutting their estimates for economic growth this year, with some even predicting that the U.S. gross domestic product could shrink in the first quarter.Some commentators have gone further, arguing that the economy could be headed for a recession, a sharp rebound in inflation or even the dreaded combination of the two, “stagflation.” Most economists consider that unlikely, saying growth is more likely to slow than to give way to a decline.Still, the sudden deterioration in the outlook is striking, especially because it is almost entirely a result of Mr. Trump’s policies and the resulting uncertainty. Tariffs, and the inevitable retaliation from trading partners, will increase prices and slow down growth. Federal job cuts will push up unemployment, and could lead government employees and contractors to pull back on spending while they wait to learn their fate. Deportations could drive up costs for industries like construction and hospitality that depend on immigrant labor.“If the economy was starting out in quite good shape, it’s probably in less good shape after what we’ve seen the last few weeks,” said Donald Rissmiller, chief economist at Strategas, a research firm.A Strong FoundationThe U.S. economy has repeatedly shown its resilience in recent years, and there are parts of Mr. Trump’s agenda that could foster growth. Business groups have responded enthusiastically to Republican plans to cut taxes and reduce regulation. A streamlined government could, in theory, make the overall economy more productive.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares159 Views

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    Fired Federal Workers Face a Sluggish Job Market

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    Unemployment is low, but there isn’t much room to move around — especially for those with highly government-specific skills.For about a year now, the labor market has existed in a state of eerie calm: Not many people were losing their jobs or quitting, but not many of those seeking work were getting job offers.The mass layoffs now underway across the federal government, along with its employees who are voluntarily heading for the exits, could disrupt that uneasy equilibrium.While unemployment is relatively low at 4 percent, those losing their positions could face a difficult time finding work, depending on how well their skills translate to a private sector that does not seem eager to hire.“Federal workers all across the country are starting to look, and it’s impacting people everywhere,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the job search platform Indeed. “It’s hard to think this isn’t going to stress test the labor market in the coming months.”On the eve of the Trump administration, the federal government’s executive branch employed about 2.3 million civilians. It’s not clear how many of those will end up being cut, and how many will get their jobs back after lawsuits over those terminations work through the courts.But impact of the pace at which government spending is being slashed, along with instructions from the White House budget office for agencies to slice even deeper, could be meaningful.Are you a federal worker? We want to hear from you.The Times would like to hear about your experience as a federal worker under the second Trump administration. We may reach out about your submission, but we will not publish any part of your response without contacting you first.

    We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More