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    Trump’s Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies and Markets Off Balance

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    On Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on Fox Business to reassure nervous allies and even more twitchy investors that the Trump administration was negotiating a deal to avoid tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and that the president is “gonna work something out with them.”“It’s not going to be a pause” for Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs, he insisted. “None of that pause stuff.”On Thursday, the world got what the president characterized as more of that pause stuff.Mr. Trump’s announcement that he had a good conversation with Mexico’s president, and would delay most tariffs until April 2, was only the latest example of the punish-by-whim nature of the second Trump presidency. A few hours after the Mexico announcement, Canada got a break too, even as Mr. Trump on social media accused its departing prime minister, Justin Trudeau, of using “the Tariff problem” to “run again for Prime Minister.”“So much fun to watch!” he wrote.Indeed, it appears that Mr. Trump is having enormous fun turning tariffs on and off like tap water. But others are developing a case of Trump-induced whiplash, not least investors, who sent stock prices down again on Thursday amid the uncertainty over what Mr. Trump’s inconstancy means for the global economy. (A later rise in stock futures pointed to rosier expectations for Friday.)When the White House finally released the text of Mr. Trump’s orders on Thursday evening, it appeared that some of the tariffs — those covered in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and celebrated in his first term — were indeed permanently suspended. Other tariffs were merely paused.Most everyone involved was confused, which may well have been the point.As Mr. Trump hands down tariff determinations and then pulls them back for a month or so, world leaders call to plead their case, a bit like vassal states appealing to a larger power. Chief executives put in calls as well, making it clear that Mr. Trump is the one you need to deal with if you are bringing in car parts from Canada or chips from China.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Suspends Mexico and Canada Tariffs on USMCA Goods for a Month

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    Two days after imposing sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, President Trump on Thursday abruptly suspended many of those levies, sowing confusion with investors and businesses that depend on trade with the countries.The president said he would allow products that are traded under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact he signed in his first term, to avoid the stiff 25 percent tariffs he imposed just days ago on two of America’s largest trading partners.The suspension effectively abandons many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump had placed on Canadian and Mexican products — levies he said were necessary to stem the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.His decision came a day after he said he would grant a 30-day reprieve to automakers, who had complained to the president that the levies would cause severe damage to U.S. carmakers. Mr. Trump implied that any relief would be short-lived, saying that other tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products are coming in April.Mr. Trump’s chaotic, stop-and-start approach has sent stock markets tumbling and generated anxiety among industries that depend on trade with Canada and Mexico, which account for more than a quarter of U.S. imports and nearly a third of U.S. exports. After Mr. Trump imposed his tariffs, Canada retaliated with levies on $20.5 billion worth of American goods, including agricultural products, and Mexico was threatening to impose its own import taxes on U.S. goods on Sunday if Mr. Trump did not relent.Still, the decision to suspend the tariffs did little to calm financial markets, which have been jittery since Mr. Trump ratcheted up his trade war earlier this week. In addition to hitting Canada and Mexico, Mr. Trump placed a second 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, prompting another round of retaliation from Beijing on American products. The president has not suspended any of his levies on China. More

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    Sweeping Tariffs Threaten to Undo a 30-Year Trade Alliance

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    When the United States signed a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico more than 30 years ago, the premise was that partnering with two other thriving economies would also benefit America.This week, President Trump abruptly scrapped that idea. He imposed a sweeping 25 percent tariff on Tuesday on the roughly $1 trillion of imports that Mexico and Canada send into the United States each year as part of that North American trade pact — before quickly walking them back. On Thursday, the president signed executive orders suspending the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for goods that trade under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is much of the trade that crosses North American borders.If the tariffs had gone into full effect, they would have significantly raised costs for Canadian and Mexican exports, undermining their economies and likely tipping them into recession.Mr. Trump’s flirtation this week with unwinding decades of economic integration raises big questions about the future of North America and the industries that have been built around the idea of an economically integrated continent. While some factories in Canada and Mexico might have moved to the United States to avoid tariffs, the levies would also have raised costs for American consumers and manufacturers that have come to depend on materials from their North American neighbors.“This is a day where the United States stopped seeing trade as force for mutual benefit, and began seeing it as a tool of economic warfare,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that the levies were “a fundamental attack on the economic well being of our closest neighbors.”While Mr. Trump suspended his tariffs on Thursday, any relief could be short lived. The president has said that he expects to issue more tariffs on Canada and Mexico next month, when he announces what he is calling “reciprocal” tariff measures.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Latest Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Could Be His Biggest Gamble

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    President Trump has offered a mix of reasons for upending global trade relations, baffling and angering America’s biggest trading partners.President Trump made one of the biggest gambles of his presidency Tuesday by initiating sweeping tariffs with no clear rationale on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, triggering a trade war that risks undermining the United States economy.His actions have upended diplomatic relations with America’s largest trading partners, sent markets tumbling, and provoked retaliation on U.S. products — leaving businesses, investors and economists puzzled as to why Mr. Trump would create such upheaval without extended negotiations or clear reasoning.Mr. Trump has offered up a variety of explanations for the tariffs, saying they are punishment for other countries’ failure to stop drugs and migrants from flowing into the United States, a way to force manufacturing back to America and retribution for countries that take advantage of the United States. On Tuesday, he cited Canada’s hostility toward American banks as another reason.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it was difficult to understand Mr. Trump’s rationale for the tariffs but posited that his intent was to cripple Canada. “What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” Mr. Trudeau said during a news conference on Tuesday. “That’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state.”Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said Tuesday afternoon that the president might reach some sort of accommodation with Canada and Mexico and announce it on Wednesday. “I think he’s going to figure out, you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle some way,” Mr. Lutnick said.Canada announced a series of retaliatory tariffs on $20.5 billion worth of American imports, and Mr. Trudeau said that other “non-tariff” measures were forthcoming.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Canada and China Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariffs, Amid Fears of Trade War

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    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada warned that the Trump administration’s tariffs were leading to a trade war. Mexico’s leader vowed to impose countermeasures on Sunday.Sweeping tariffs imposed by President Trump threatened economic upheaval for consumers and businesses in the United States on Tuesday as the country’s biggest trading partners struck back, raising fears of a burgeoning trade war.Canada and China swiftly condemned the U.S. tariffs and announced retaliatory tariffs against American exports. President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said that if the U.S. tariffs were still in place on Sunday, she, too, would announce countermeasures.“This is a time to hit back hard and to demonstrate that a fight with Canada will have no winners,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said in a stern and, at times, biting address on Tuesday.The U.S. tariffs were a stark turnabout from the free-trade evangelism that has marked much of postwar American foreign policy. The measures amounted to 25 percent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. They came on top of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods put into effect one month ago and a variety of older levies, including those that remain from the China trade war during Mr. Trump’s first term.Amid the tariff dispute, the niceties and flattery that some foreign leaders had employed in the first weeks of the Trump administration seemed to fall away.Addressing Mr. Trump as “Donald,” Mr. Trudeau said at a news conference in Ottawa: “You’re a very smart guy. But this is a very dumb thing to do.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares189 Views

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    Mexico Gave Trump Much of What He Wanted. Tariffs Came Anyway.

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    Facing the threat of tariffs from President Trump after he took office, Mexico bent over backward to comply with his demands.Almost immediately, the government moved to secure its northern border, severely stanching migration to the United States. Then it hunted cartel leaders in a dangerous fentanyl stronghold. And just last week, in a once-in-a-generation move, it delivered into U.S. custody 29 of the country’s most powerful drug lords.But even after all of that, Mr. Trump imposed the tariffs anyway, shaking global markets. The move left officials in both countries baffled about what the White House was trying to accomplish and frantically asking the same question: What was Mr. Trump’s endgame?Even some people close to the president seem to disagree on the answer.Some outside advisers predict that the tariffs, which are currently at 25 percent on most imports from Mexico and Canada, will result in a steady stream of revenue for the United States.Others maintain that they are Mr. Trump’s attempt to shake up the global order and flex his muscles on the world stage.Many believe that the president, who has seen trade deficits as a crisis for decades, is simply trying to follow through on a threat that he has dangled over Mexico for months. By pressing forward, they say, Mr. Trump is seeking to ensure that he is seen as tough among world leaders as he pushes his foreign policy agenda in other global hot spots, including Gaza and Ukraine.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Lutnick Remarks on Removing Government Spending in GDP Data Raises Fears

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    Comments from a member of President Trump’s cabinet over the weekend have renewed concerns that the new administration could seek to interfere with federal statistics — especially if they start to show that the economy is slipping into a recession.In an interview on Fox News on Sunday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested that he planned to change the way the government reports data on gross domestic product in order to remove the impact of government spending.“You know that governments historically have messed with G.D.P.,” he said. “They count government spending as part of G.D.P. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”It wasn’t immediately clear what Mr. Lutnick meant. The basic definition of gross domestic product is widely accepted internationally and has been unchanged for decades. It tallies consumer spending, private-sector investment, net exports, and government investment and spending to arrive at a broad measure of all goods and services produced in a country.The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of Mr. Lutnick’s department, already produces a detailed breakdown of G.D.P. into its component parts. Many economists focus on a measure — known as “final sales to private domestic purchasers” — that excludes government spending and is often seen as a better indicator of underlying demand in the economy. That measure has generally shown stronger growth in recent quarters than overall G.D.P. figures.In recent weeks, however, there have been mounting signs elsewhere that the economy could be losing momentum. Consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, applications for unemployment insurance have been creeping upward, and measures of housing construction and home sales have turned down. A forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that G.D.P. could contract sharply in the first quarter of the year, although most private forecasters still expect modest growth.Steady Growth, From Private and Government SpendingGovernment spending has contributed to G.D.P. growth in recent quarters, as private-sector growth has remained solid.

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    Quarterly change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product
    Notes: Change shown as seasonally adjusted annual rate. Private sector is total gross domestic product excluding government spending and investment. Government spending excludes transfer payments, including stimulus checks during the Covid-19 pandemic.”Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Snap Into Effect

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    Sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect just after midnight on Tuesday, raising U.S. tariffs to levels not seen in decades and rattling foreign governments and businesses that depend on international trade.As of 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, the Trump administration added a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. The administration also added another 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. That comes on top of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods put into effect just one month ago and a variety of older levies, including those that remain from the China trade war in Mr. Trump’s first term.The tariffs will make good on President Trump’s campaign promise to rework America’s trade relations, and they are likely to encourage some manufacturers who want to sell to American customers to set up factories in the United States, instead of other countries.But by altering the terms of trade between the United States and its largest economic partners, the tariffs will also probably rattle supply chains, strain some of the country’s most important diplomatic relationships and add significant costs for American consumers and manufacturers.Canada, Mexico and China are the three largest trading partners of the United States, accounting for more than 40 percent of both U.S. imports and exports last year. The three countries supply the bulk of crude oil, beer, copper wire, toilet paper, hot-rolled iron, cucumbers and chocolate imported by the United States, as well as a dizzying array of other products. More