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    How Trump May Unintentionally Cut Carbon Emissions

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    President Trump has expressed little interest in fighting climate change. One of his key cabinet officials has even sought to evaluate whether humanity benefits from a warming climate, in a bid to undermine environmental rules.Yet even as he works to accelerate oil and gas production, Mr. Trump’s economic approach may inadvertently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as consumption slows in response to a global trade war.Any reprieve for the planet, however, would be brief. Over the longer term, tanking the economy with tit-for-tat tariffs is likely to impede progress, because of how much clean energy deployment depends on overseas supply chains and because voters are less likely to support climate policy when they’re financially stressed.Carbon emissions, largely a byproduct of going places and making things, have always been tethered to economic growth. Forecasters increasingly anticipate that Mr. Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs could tip the economy into recession as companies and consumers cut spending in the face of higher prices for imported goods.“If we’re talking about a traditional recession, people fly less, they buy less stuff, there’s less investment in capital goods,” said Alex Heil, a senior economist at the Conference Board, who focuses on energy and climate. “And just a slowdown in economic activity is likely to slow down carbon emissions.”That is what happened in the last two recessions. Global carbon emissions dipped slightly, before resuming their upward march. (Emissions in the United States continued to decline after 2008 as cheap natural gas displaced coal, and it’s possible that a similar peak is nearing for the rest of the world.)Carbon Emissions Slow When the Economy Takes a Hit

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    Global annual carbon emissions
    Source: Global Carbon BudgetBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s 100-Day Economic Report Card

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    Market chaos and economic uncertainty has been a feature of the president’s first few months back in office. DealBook breaks down the milestones, and what to expect next.Trump’s tumultuous start When President Trump took office in January for his second term, business leaders anticipated an administration that would lower taxes, loosen regulations and open up deal-making.Instead, Wall Street got chaos. The president has taken a cudgel to global trade with enormous tariffs, threatened the independence of the Fed and made the landscape for M.&A. more uncertain.Under Trump, the S&P 500 has fallen about 8 percent, the worst performance for the first 100 days of a presidency since President Gerald Ford in 1974.Back then, the Watergate scandal prompted political instability and the economy was facing a recession and an oil crisis. The markets this year have been socked by the president’s protectionist trade policy.Here are the themes that have defined Trump’s first 100 days in office. Trump will commemorate the occasion with a rally in Michigan this evening, and the White House is expected to announce relief on auto tariffs.On that note: General Motors on Tuesday pulled its full-year forecast as it reported first-quarter results. “The prior guidance cannot be relied upon” amid tariffs uncertainty, said Paul Jacobson, the company’s C.F.O.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Administration Looks to Take Steps to Ease Pain From Car Tariffs

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    The planned concessions to give automakers more time to relocate production to the United States would still leave substantial tariffs on imported cars and car parts.The Trump administration said it plans to announce measures as early as Tuesday to ease the impact of tariffs on imported cars and car parts to give automakers more time to relocate production to the United States.Tariffs of 25 percent on imported vehicles and on auto parts will remain in place. But the tariffs will be modified so that they are not “stacked” with other tariffs, for example on steel and aluminum, a White House spokesman said. Automakers will not have to pay tariffs on those metals, widely used in automobiles, on top of the tariffs on cars and parts.In addition, automakers will be reimbursed for some of the cost of tariffs on imported components. The reimbursement will amount to up to 3.75 percent of the value of a new car in the first year, but will be phased out over two years, the spokesman confirmed.A 25 percent tariff on imported cars took effect April 3. On Saturday, the tariffs are set to be extended to include imported parts.“President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said in a statement. “This deal is a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically, while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.”But even with these changes, there will still be substantial tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, which will raise prices for new and used cars by thousands of dollars and increase the cost of repairs and insurance premiums.The modification to the tariffs was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Lutnick helped automakers secure a major exemption from tariffs in March and has taken on a role advocating relief for some industries hit by the levies.Automakers welcomed the change. “We believe the president’s leadership is helping level the playing field for companies like G.M. and allowing us to invest even more in the U.S. economy,” Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, said in a statement on Monday. “We appreciate the productive conversations with the president and his administration and look forward to continuing to work together.” More

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    Howard Lutnick, Trump’s ‘Buoyant’ Trade Warrior, Flexes His Power Over Global Business

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    Since Howard Lutnick was tapped to serve as President Trump’s commerce secretary, executives from some of the world’s largest companies have been trying to win him over.Leaders of Nvidia, Facebook, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Alphabet have visited his newly purchased $25 million property in Washington — a 16,250-square-foot mansion that Mr. Lutnick, a billionaire, recently quipped would be “big enough for my ego” — to persuade him to adopt a business-friendly agenda.As Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs to levels not seen in a century, Ford Motor, General Motors and other companies that have built their businesses around international trade reached out to Mr. Lutnick in the hope that he could persuade the president to take a less aggressive approach. Some chief executives have put in calls to the commerce secretary at midnight.Mr. Lutnick, 63, heads a department that both promotes and regulates industry, and he has been put in charge of overseeing trade. As a result, he has found himself in a position of incredible influence, as the go-between for a president imposing sweeping tariffs and the industries being crushed by them.A former bond trader who amassed billions on Wall Street, Mr. Lutnick has become one of the loudest salesmen for tariffs in an administration generally unified on their benefits. He has publicly echoed the president’s message that big tariffs are needed to revive American industry, and that if companies don’t like them, they should build factories in the United States.But in internal conversations in the administration, he has often been a voice for moderation. He argued in favor of Mr. Trump’s pausing his global tariffs for 90 days after they sent convulsions through the stock and bond markets. And he has made the case to the president to grant relief to certain favored industries, helping them to win exemptions from billions of dollars of levies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Prompt Wave of Lawsuits

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    The cases are the latest test of the president’s expansive claims of executive power.Somewhere along a roughly 7,500-mile journey that begins in Shenzhen, China, there are 19 shipments bound for Rick Woldenberg, the chief executive of Learning Resources, an educational toy company in Vernon Hills, Ill.Eventually, the containers of puzzle cards, child binoculars and other products will reach a port in the United States, and Mr. Woldenberg will face a difficult and expensive decision. He can pay the sky-high tariffs that President Trump has imposed on most foreign goods, or forgo at least some of the much-needed inventory, perhaps imperiling his bottom line.Mr. Woldenberg expects to do a bit of both. But he has also opted for a more aggressive course of action, joining a growing roster of opponents now legally challenging Mr. Trump’s ability to issue some of the tariffs in the first place.Nearly four weeks into a costly global trade war with no end in sight, Mr. Trump is facing a barrage of lawsuits from state officials, small businesses and even once-allied political groups, all contending that the president cannot sidestep Congress and tax virtually any import at levels to his liking.The lawsuits carry great significance, not just because the tariffs have roiled financial markets and threatened to plunge the United States into a recession. The legal challenges also stand to test Mr. Trump’s claims of expansive presidential power, while illustrating the difficult calculation that his opponents face in deciding whether to fight back and risk retribution.None of the lawsuits filed this month are supported by major business lobbying groups, even though many organizations — including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable — have been sharply critical of the president’s tariffs and lobbied to lessen their impact. The chamber privately debated bringing a lawsuit, but ultimately decided it was “not the best course of action at this time,” said Neil Bradley, the executive vice president of the group.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    China Rejects Trump Claim of Tariff Talks With Xi

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    President Trump said that “we’re meeting with China” on tariffs, comments aimed at soothing jittery financial markets. But Chinese officials say no talks have taken place.President Trump, whose trade war with China has rattled financial markets and threatened to disrupt huge swaths of trade, suggested on Friday that he had been in touch with Xi Jinping, China’s president, even as Chinese officials insisted that no negotiations were occurring.In an interview with Time on Tuesday, Mr. Trump said Mr. Xi had called him, though he declined to say when, and asserted that his team was in active talks with China on a trade deal. Asked about the interview outside the White House on Friday morning, the president reiterated that he had spoken with the Chinese president “numerous times,” but he refused to answer when pressed on whether any call had happened after he imposed tariffs this month.Mr. Trump’s comments appeared aimed at creating the impression of progress with China to soothe jittery financial markets, which have fallen amid signs that the world’s largest economies are in a standoff. The S&P 500 is down 10 percent since Mr. Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.But the president’s claims of talks have been rejected by Chinese officials, who have repeatedly denied this week that they are actively negotiating with the United States.“China and the U.S. have not held consultations or negotiations on the issue of tariffs,” Guo Jiakun, the spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said in a news conference on Friday. “The United States should not confuse the public.”Chinese officials have repeatedly said the United States should stop threatening China and engage in dialogue on the basis of equality and respect. On Thursday, He Yadong, a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry, said there were “no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    In Trade War Clash With Trump, China Refuses to Take the Bait

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    The Trump administration has been saying that the two countries are engaged in talks to resolve the dispute, but Beijing asserts that no such discussions are happening.If the trade war between China and the United States is a game of high-stakes brinkmanship, it is currently a game that Beijing is not willing to play.Faced with growing claims by President Trump and administration officials that the two countries are engaged in talks and that a deal could be reached in a matter of weeks, China’s Foreign Ministry pushed back forcefully on Friday by posting on X: “China and the U.S. are NOT having any consultation or negotiation. The U.S. should stop creating confusion.”The post came hours after a foreign ministry spokesman, Guo Jiakun, said the United States was “misleading the public.” A day earlier, Mr. Guo called the rumors of talks “fake news.”The response was the latest sign that China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, intends to hold firm in his standoff with Mr. Trump, sensing that his position is strengthening. Beijing is betting that it can stomach the pain of a trade war better than the Trump administration can because of U.S. political pressure and volatility on Wall Street, analysts say.“The Chinese are not eager to climb down the ladder,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “They see Trump as wanting to climb down and are happy to let him stew in his own juice.”Ms. Sun said Beijing will not come to the negotiation table without any U.S. concessions or a good-will gesture. That could include scaling back tariffs, or making clear that Mr. Trump is reaching out to Mr. Xi first.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Bump Into Reality as Economic Strategy Wavers

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    After weeks of bluster and escalation, President Trump blinked. Then he blinked again. And again.He backed off his threat to fire the Federal Reserve chairman. His Treasury secretary, acutely aware that the S&P 500 was down 10 percent since Mr. Trump was inaugurated, signaled he was looking for an offramp to avoid an intensifying trade war with China.And now Mr. Trump has acknowledged that the 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods that he announced just two weeks ago are not sustainable. He was prompted in part by the warnings of senior executives from Target and Walmart and other large American retailers that consumers would see price surges and empty shelves for some imported goods within a few weeks.Mr. Trump’s encounter with reality amounted to a vivid case study in the political and economic costs of striking the hardest of hard lines. He entered this trade war imagining a simpler era in which imposing punishing tariffs would force companies around the world to build factories in the United States.He ends the month discovering that the world of modern supply chains is far more complex than he bargained for, and that it is far from clear his “beautiful” tariffs will have the effects he predicted.This is not, of course, the explanation of the events of the past few days that the White House is putting out. Mr. Trump’s aides insist that his maximalist demands have been an act of strategic brilliance, forcing 90 countries to line up to deal with the president. It may take months, they acknowledge, to see the concessions that will result. But bending the global trade system to American will, they say, takes time.“Have some patience and you will see,” the president’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told reporters on Wednesday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More