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    Can the Federal Reserve Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?

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    Top officials are grappling with how to handle potential price increases caused by the administration’s policies.As President Trump’s efforts to restructure the global trade system with expansive tariffs begin to take shape, one question continues to dog officials at the Federal Reserve: How will these policies impact the central bank’s plans to lower interest rates?One influential Fed governor made clear on Monday that he did not expect Mr. Trump’s policies to derail the Fed’s efforts to get inflation under control, suggesting instead that fresh interest rate cuts are still in play this year.“My baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a nonpersistent manner,” Christopher J. Waller, the official, said in remarks at an event in Australia Monday evening. “So I favor looking through these effects when setting monetary policy to the best of our ability.”Economists are concerned that tariffs, which are essentially taxes on American consumers, will increase prices in the United States, at least temporarily, and over time slow economic growth.Mr. Waller acknowledged that the economic impact of the tariffs could be larger than anticipated depending on how they are structured and later put in place. But he suggested that any uptick in prices from tariffs could be blunted by other policies, which could have “positive supply effects and put downward pressure on inflation.”Mr. Waller’s views matter given that he is one of the seven officials who make up the Board of Governors and votes at every policy meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum From Foreign Countries

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    President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum on Monday, re-upping a policy from his first term that pleased domestic metal makers but hurt other American industries and ignited trade wars on multiple fronts.The president signed two official proclamations that would impose a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum from all countries. Mr. Trump, speaking from the Oval Office on Monday evening, called the moves “a big deal — making America rich again.”A White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly told reporters on Monday that the move was evidence of Mr. Trump’s commitment to use tariffs to put the United States on equal footing with other nations. In contrast to Mr. Trump’s first term, the official said, no exclusions to the tariffs for American companies that rely on foreign steel and aluminum will be allowed.The measures were welcomed by domestic steelmakers, who have been lobbying the Trump administration for protection against cheap foreign metals.But the tariffs are likely to rankle America’s allies like Canada and Mexico, which supply the bulk of U.S. metal imports. They could also elicit retaliation on U.S. exports, as well as pushback from American industries that use metals to make cars, food packaging and other products. Those sectors will face significantly higher prices after the tariffs go into effect.That is what happened in Mr. Trump’s first term, when the president levied 25 percent tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. While Mr. Trump and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. eventually rolled back those tariffs on most major metal suppliers, the levies were often replaced with other trade barriers, like quotas on how much foreign metal could come into the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Says He Will Announce Reciprocal Tariffs Next Week

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    President Trump indicated he was ready to broaden his trade war on Friday, saying that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on other countries next week.Such a measure would raise the levies the United States charges on imports to match what other countries charge on American products, a move that could trigger new trade fights.Speaking to reporters before a meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan at the White House, Mr. Trump said that the tariffs would restore fairness to trading relationships and eliminate U.S. trade deficits.Making trade more reciprocal, Mr. Trump said, would ensure “that we’re treated evenly with other countries; we don’t want any more, any less,” he added.It’s the latest indication that Mr. Trump is willing to use tariffs broadly and unsparingly. He has already imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on all products from China, in addition to the levies on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods in his first term.Over the past week, the president came within hours of imposing sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, America’s largest trading partners, saying those countries were sending drugs and migrants to the United States. He ultimately paused those measures for 30 days after the countries offered him some concessions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Hiring Slowed to 143,000 Jobs in January

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    U.S. employers added 143,000 jobs last month, somewhat fewer than forecast, while unemployment fell to 4 percent and hourly earnings rose.Can a labor market be hot and cool at the same time? That’s the picture painted by the latest federal hiring figures, which show a step down in job creation last month — as well as a drop in joblessness.Employers added 143,000 jobs in January, slightly fewer than expected, the Labor Department reported on Friday. But with large upward revisions to the prior two months and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4 percent, American workers still appear to be in good shape.“We have robust fundamentals, and relatively moderate hiring, but it’s very judicious,” said Gregory Daco, the chief U.S. economist with the accounting firm EY-Parthenon. “The unemployment rate is historically low, but frozen in the sense that you’re not seeing much churn — businesses are being cautious as to how they manage their work force.” More

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    U.S. Trade Deficit Hit Record in 2024 as Imports Surged

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    A strong dollar helped drive an uptick in U.S. imports last year, while export growth remained modest.The U.S. trade deficit in goods hit a record $1.2 trillion last year, as American consumers snapped up imported products and a strong U.S. dollar weighed on export growth.Data released Wednesday morning by the Commerce Department showed that U.S. imports of goods and services grew 6.6 percent to a record $4.1 trillion, as Americans bought large amounts of auto parts, weight-loss drugs, computers and food from other countries.U.S. exports of goods and services to the world also hit a record, reaching $3.2 trillion in 2024.That was driven by record sales of U.S. services, like business and financial advising, as well as foreign spending on travel in the United States. But exports of goods taken on their own grew more sluggishly, as a strong U.S. dollar made it more expensive for other countries to buy American products, and the United States sold fewer cars, car parts and industrial supplies, like raw materials and machinery, to the world.Competition from automakers in China and strikes in the U.S. auto industry weighed on exports of vehicles, parts and engines, which fell $10.8 billion compared with the year before.Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Chinese electric vehicle sales had taken off in 2024, in China and elsewhere, and were siphoning market share from other producers. Companies like General Motors have been under pressure in China, where more than four-fifths of the electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold are now Chinese brands.“The Chinese auto industry has really come on and is very competitive in the E.V. space,” Mr. Zandi said. “And that’s a real problem for U.S. manufacturers that are producing and exporting to the rest of the world.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    China Strikes Back After Trump Imposes 10% Tariff on Goods

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    After a 10 percent tariff on Chinese products took effect on Tuesday, China announced retaliatory measures, including tariffs and an investigation of Google.Beijing responded swiftly on Tuesday to the tariffs President Trump had promised, announcing a fusillade of countermeasures targeting American companies and imports of critical products.Mr. Trump’s 10 percent tariff on all Chinese products went into effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, the result of an executive order issued over the weekend aimed at pressuring Beijing to crack down on fentanyl shipments into the United States.The Chinese government came back with a series of retaliatory steps, including additional tariffs on liquefied natural gas, coal, farm machinery and other products from the United States. It also said it had implemented restrictions on the export of certain critical minerals, many of which are used in the production of high-tech products.In addition, Chinese market regulators said they had launched an antimonopoly investigation into Google. Google is blocked from China’s internet, but the move may disrupt the company’s dealings with Chinese companies.The U.S. tariffs, which Mr. Trump said on Monday were an “opening salvo,” come on top of levies that the president imposed during his first term. Many Chinese products already faced a 10 or 25 percent tariff, and the move adds a 10 percent tariff to more than $400 billion of goods that Americans purchase from China each year.Mr. Trump had been planning to hit America’s three largest trading partners, Canada, Mexico and China, with tariffs of varying degrees. But after days of frantic negotiations, Mr. Trump agreed to pause the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days after the Canadian and Mexican governments promised to step up their oversight of fentanyl and the border.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Canada and Mexico Tariffs Could Hurt Carmakers

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    General Motors and a few other companies make as much as 40 percent of their North American cars and trucks in Canada and Mexico, leaving them vulnerable to tariffs.Almost all automakers are going to feel a pinch from the new tariffs imposed by President Trump on Saturday on goods imported from Canada, Mexico and China.Auto manufacturers ship tens of billions of dollars worth of finished automobiles, engines, transmissions and other components each week across the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico. Billions of dollars more are imported from parts manufacturers in China.The tariffs, which will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, are widely expected to raise the prices that American consumers pay for new automobiles. And the tariffs come at a time when new cars and trucks are already selling for near record prices.General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker, will probably be most affected.G.M. produces many more vehicles in Mexico than any other manufacturer — over 842,000 in 2024, according to MarkLines, an auto-industry data provider. And some of those vehicles are the most important in the company’s lineup.All of the Chevrolet Equinox and Blazer sport-utility vehicles G.M. sells in the United States come from Mexico. The Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck, a top-selling model, and the similar GMC Sierra pickup generate huge profits for the company. Of the more than one million of those trucks built last year, nearly half were produced in Canadian and Mexican plants, data from MarkLines shows.All told, G.M. plants in Canada and Mexico produced nearly 40 percent of all vehicles the company made last year in North America, the region where it gets most of its revenue and almost all of its profits.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump’s Tariffs Would Reverse Decades of Integration Between U.S. and Mexico

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    Ties between the United States and Mexico have deepened over 30 years of free trade, creating both benefits and irritants.When Dennis Nixon started working at a regional bank in Laredo, Texas, in 1975, there was just a trickle of trade across the border with Mexico. Now, nearly a billion dollars of commerce and more than 15,000 trucks roll over the line every day just a quarter mile from his office, binding the economies of the United States and Mexico together.Laredo is America’s busiest port, and a conduit for car parts, gasoline, avocados and computers. “You cannot pick it apart anymore,” Mr. Nixon said of the U.S. and Mexican economies. Thirty years of economic integration under a free trade deal has created “interdependencies and relationships that you don’t always understand and measure, until something goes wrong,” he said.Now that something is looming: 25 percent tariffs on Mexican products, which President Trump plans to impose on Saturday as he looks to pressure the Mexican government to do more to curb illegal immigration. Mr. Trump is also expected to hit Canada with 25 percent levies and impose a 10 percent tax on Chinese imports.A longtime proponent of tariffs and a critic of free trade deals, Mr. Trump seems unafraid to upend America’s closest economic relationships. He is focusing on strengthening the border against illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl, two areas that he spoke about often during his 2024 campaign.But the president has other beefs with Mexico, including the economic competition it poses for U.S. workers. The president and his supporters believe that imports of cars and steel from Mexico are weakening U.S. manufacturers. And they say the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, needs to be updated — or perhaps, in some minds, scrapped.Many businesses say ties between the countries run deeper than most Americans realize, and policies like tariffs that seek to sever them would be painful. Of all the world’s major economic partners, the United States and Mexico are among the most integrated — linked by business, trade, tourism, familial ties, remittances and culture. It’s a closeness that at times generates discontent and efforts to distance the relationship, but also brings many benefits.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More