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    High Inflation and New Tariffs Will Make the Fed’s Job Tougher

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    Fresh tariffs amid high inflation are making the Fed’s job uniquely difficult and feeding uncertainty about what to expect for interest rates this year.High inflation is stoking fresh debate about how the Federal Reserve should respond to President Trump’s sweeping plans to reorder the world economy through tariffs, leading to questions about whether old playbooks still apply.On Saturday, Mr. Trump is poised to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada as well as an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. That move comes on the heels of threats to impose hefty tariffs on Colombia, which were rescinded after its government complied with Mr. Trump’s demands to accept deported migrants.Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s nominee to oversee the Commerce Department and trade, said at a confirmation hearing on Wednesday that he favored “across-the-board” tariffs that would hit entire countries.The volume of trade policy proposals is making the Fed’s already tricky job even more difficult and sowing uncertainty about what to expect from the central bank as it tries to fully wrestle inflation back to more normal levels.Tariffs are broadly seen by economists and policymakers as likely to stoke higher prices for U.S. businesses and consumers at least initially, and over time weigh on growth. That, as well as Mr. Trump’s plans to also enact mass deportations, steep tax cuts and reduced deregulation, has complicated the path forward for the Fed, which is debating how quickly to resume rate cuts and by what magnitude after pressing pause this week.What comes next is far from clear, leaving central bank officials to parse playbooks both old and new to formulate the right strategy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Do DeepSeek’s A.I. Advances Mean US Tech Controls Have Failed?

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    DeepSeek’s A.I. models show that China is making rapid gains in the field, despite American efforts to hinder it.The United States has worked steadily over the past three years to limit China’s access to the cutting edge computer chips that power advanced artificial intelligence systems. Its aim has been to slow China’s progress in developing sophisticated A.I. models.Now a Chinese firm, DeepSeek, has created that very technology. In recent weeks, DeepSeek released multiple A.I. models and a chatbot whose performance rivals that of the best products made by American firms, all while using far fewer of the high-cost A.I. chips that companies typically need. Over the weekend, DeepSeek’s chatbot shot to the top of Apple’s App Store charts as people downloaded it around the world.The development has raised big questions about export controls built by the United States in recent years. The Biden administration set up a system of global rules and steadily expanded them to try to keep advanced A.I. technology — particularly chips made by Nvidia — out of Chinese hands. They were concerned that technology would give China an edge not just economically, but also militarily.DeepSeek’s development has provoked a fierce debate over whether U.S. technology controls have failed. Here’s what to know.DeepSeek’s innovations suggest the Biden administration may have acted too slowly to keep up with private companies sidestepping its controls.DeepSeek has said that its most recent model was trained on Nvidia H800s. This is an A.I. chip that Nvidia developed specifically for the Chinese market after export controls were first imposed, and that caused a fair amount of drama in Washington.When the United States put restrictions on Nvidia’s most advanced chips in 2022, Nvidia quickly adapted by creating slightly downgraded chips that fell just under the threshold the government had set. These chips were technically legal for Chinese companies to use, but allowed them to achieve practically the same results.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    G.M. Has Plans Ready for Trump’s Canada and Mexico Tariffs

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    General Motors, the largest producer of cars in Mexico, won’t provide details on how it would react if President Trump imposes 25 percent tariffs from the two countries.General Motors executives are closely tracking President Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, but the company is not yet making any major changes to its strategy in North America in response to the threatened tariffs.The automaker has pulled together an “extensive playbook” of possible options but won’t put them in place “until the world changes dramatically, and we see a permanent level of tariffs going forward,” the company’s chief financial officer, Paul Jacobson, told reporters in a conference call on Monday evening.“I won’t go into the details exactly but we’ve been preparing for that and want to make sure that we are prudent and don’t overreact,” he added.Mr. Trump said last week that he planned to impose tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Canada and Mexico starting on Saturday, Feb. 1. If he followed through on those plans, the tariffs would deal a big blow to G.M. and other automakers that produce vehicles and components in those countries, and probably increase the prices of many vehicles sold in the United States.G.M. produced nearly 900,000 vehicles in Mexico in 2024, more than any other carmaker, and most of those were shipped to the United States. Among them are the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup trucks, as well as the Chevrolet Equinox sport-utility vehicle — all top-sellers and big sources of profit for the company. It also produces some Silverados and electric delivery vans in Canada.G.M. said on Tuesday that it lost $3 billion in the final three months of 2024, stemming from a $4 billion noncash expense related to a restructuring of its joint venture operations in China. The company’s revenue in the quarter rose 11 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Existing-Home Sales in 2024 Were Slowest in Decades Amid High Mortgage Rates

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    The market perked up late in the year when interest rates eased, but affordability challenges yielded the fewest transactions since 1995.High interest rates kept U.S. home sales in a deep freeze for much of last year. It could be a while before the market experiences much of a thaw.Americans bought just over four million previously owned homes last year, the National Association of Realtors said on Friday. That was the fewest since 1995 and far below the annual pace of roughly five million that was typical before the coronavirus pandemic.Sales picked up a bit toward the end of the year, rising 9.3 percent in December from a year earlier. That increase probably reflected the dip in mortgage rates in the summer and early fall — to about 6 percent on average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — which made homes more affordable for buyers.But mortgage rates have since rebounded to about 7 percent, and most forecasters don’t expect them to come down much in the next few months. That makes a significant increase in home sales unlikely this year, said Charlie Dougherty, an economist at Wells Fargo.“You saw sales beginning to perk up a little bit, but it’s still sluggish,” he said. “I don’t think it’s indicative of a really forceful or energetic recovery that’s going to be coming.”Home prices soared during the pandemic, as Americans sought more space and rock-bottom interest rates made it easy to borrow. Real-estate agents told of frenetic bidding wars as buyers competed for available homes.That frenzy suddenly stopped when the rapid increase in inflation led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to their highest level in decades. Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped, from below 3 percent in late 2021 to nearly 8 percent two years later.The combination of high prices and high interest rates made homes unaffordable for many seeking to buy. And owners, many of whom had either bought their homes or refinanced their mortgages when rates were low, had little incentive to sell. That kept inventories low and prices high.There are hints that the housing market might gradually be returning to normal, as life events — new jobs, new babies, marriages, divorces — force owners to sell, and as buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs. Inventories have edged up, and surveys show more owners plan to sell.But unless mortgage rates fall, that normalization process is likely to be slow, Mr. Dougherty said.“I think it’s probably safe to say that home sales have found a floor,” he said. But, he added, “if you look at the overall level, it’s still very, very weak.” More

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    Trump Is Said to Push for Early Reopening of North American Trade Deal

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    The president wants to begin renegotiating a U.S. trade deal with Canada and Mexico earlier than a scheduled 2026 review, people familiar with his thinking said.The Trump administration intends to push to renegotiate the U.S. trade deal with Canada and Mexico ahead of a required 2026 review of it, seeking to shore up U.S. auto jobs and counter Chinese firms that are making inroads into the Mexican auto sector, people familiar with the deliberations said.The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Mr. Trump signed in 2020, required the three countries to hold a “joint review” of the deal after six years, on July 1, 2026. But Mr. Trump intends to begin those negotiations sooner, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that had not been made public.Trump officials particularly want to tighten the pact’s rules governing the auto sector, to try to discourage auto factories from leaving the United States, they said. They are also seeking to block Chinese companies making cars and auto parts from being able to export to the United States through factories in Mexico.Mr. Trump has also threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, saying those countries are allowing drugs and migrants to flow across American borders. Speaking from the Oval Office on Monday night after his inauguration, he said he planned to move forward with the tariffs on Feb. 1.Members of the Trump team believe that Mexico has been violating the terms of a separate agreement to limit metal exports to the United States, and they are eager to show the Mexican government that they mean to take action against such trade violations, one person familiar with the conversations said.The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that Mr. Trump was pushing for an early renegotiation of his North American trade deal. The three countries are required to meet to discuss the terms of the trade deal six years after the agreement went into force, but trade experts have expected the Trump team to speed up work on the issue.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump Pitches External Revenue Service to Collect Tariffs: What to Know

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    President Trump has promised to generate a “massive” amount of revenue with tariffs on foreign products, an amount so big that the president said he would create a new agency — the External Revenue Service — to handle collecting the money.“Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” Mr. Trump said on Monday in his inaugural address, where he reiterated a promise to create the agency. “It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our Treasury coming from foreign sources.”Much about the new agency remains unclear, including how it would differ from the government’s current operations. Trade experts said that, despite the name “external,” the bulk of tariff revenue would continue to be collected from U.S. businesses that import products.Here’s what you need to know about what Mr. Trump has proposed.The U.S. has an established system for collecting tariffs.Tariff revenue is currently collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which monitors the goods and the people that come into the United States through hundreds of airports and land crossings.This has been the case nearly since the country’s inception. Congress established the Customs Service in 1789 as part of the Treasury Department, and for roughly a century tariffs were the primary source of government revenue, counted in stately customs houses that still stand in most major cities throughout the United States, said John Foote, a customs lawyer at Kelley, Drye and Warren.With the creation of the income tax in 1913, tariffs became a minor source of government revenue, and after the Sept. 11 attacks, the customs bureau was moved from the Treasury Department to the Department of Homeland Security.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    ‘So Much Uncertainty’: Businesses Worry About Trump’s Many Tariff Plans

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    The incoming president has floated numerous tariff plans. Retailers say their livelihood could depend on which ultimately come to fruition.For Klem’s, a general store in rural Massachusetts, each year has seemed more challenging than the last.First, there was the pandemic, then a global supply chain breakdown that left the store short of lawn mowers and shoes. Next, a spate of inflation raided American pocketbooks. All along, Amazon continued to pull customers away from brick and mortar stores like Klem’s.Now Jessica Bettencourt, Klem’s owner, says she is facing a new challenge that has left her wondering if the store — which was started by her grandparents in 1949 — will survive. The sweeping tariffs that President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to impose could raise the price of foreign-made products and cut into her business’s already slim profits, she says.“A huge tariff increase would potentially decimate us,” she said. “A retail store like mine has slim margins to begin with.” It wouldn’t take a whole lot before “all of a sudden, those slim little pennies that you might make are gone,” she said.Mr. Trump comes into office having floated a wide variety of tariff plans. He has proposed a universal tariff on nearly all imports, plus levies ranging from 10 to 200 percent on products from China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union and elsewhere.Mr. Trump has promised to use tariffs for multiple goals: cajoling companies to make their products in the United States, funding tax cuts, persuading other countries to stem the flows of drugs and migrants and even forcing Denmark to cede Greenland to the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Debate Over U.S. Sanctions on Russia For Ukraine War Intensifies

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    The president-elect has said he will use sanctions sparingly while vowing to end the war in Ukraine, renewing questions over their efficacy.Thousands of far-reaching sanctions have been imposed by dozens of countries on Russian banks, businesses and people since Moscow ordered tanks to roll across the border into Ukraine in the winter of 2022.Now, more than 1,000 days later, as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, questions about the sanctions’ effectiveness — and future — are expected to come under renewed scrutiny.Mr. Trump has stated, “I want to use sanctions as little as possible.” And he has made clear that there will be a shift in American policy toward Ukraine, having promised to end the war in a single day.Experts believe that sanctions and continued military aid are almost certain to be bargaining chips in any negotiations.So how valuable are the sanction chips that Mr. Trump will hold?The answer is hotly debated.Predictions in the early months of the war that economic restrictions would soon undermine President Vladimir V. Putin’s regime or reduce the ruble to “rubble” did not pan out. Mr. Putin remains entrenched in the Kremlin, and his forces are inflicting punishing damage on Ukraine and gaining on the battlefield.Yet the idea that economic sanctions could bring a quick end to the war was always more a product of hope than a realistic assessment, said Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who fled the country in 2013 and is now the dean of the London Business School.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More