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Walmart Holiday Shopping Plans Are Laid Months Before Black Friday

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To prepare for ever-longer shopping season, thousands of employees were assembled for a retail jamboree in Florida’s August heat.It felt like calculated chaos inside the chilly convention center where Walmart had recreated one of its Supercenter stores. It was late August in Orlando, Fla., and the retailer had flown in thousands of workers to have a look. They were zipping around, trying to take it all in.There were dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and poinsettias, rows of Halloween candy, and racks of knit dresses and sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced around the toy section, while wacky inflatable ghosts and foxes hovered above the inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. Along the way, Walmart workers were chowing down on samples of pulled pork and chips, Oreo cookies and ice cream.A candy cane door frame welcomed people to the North Pole — and into Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer was trying to set the mood for holidays that were still months off. But foremost on the agenda for the 6,700 attendees was Walmart’s slate of fall and winter events.Beyond the festive mood, the holiday season is full of high stakes. It’s the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offer insights into consumer behavior and the state of the retail industry.Last year, Walmart began to see people starting their holiday shopping in earnest around Halloween.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Amazon Sought Tariff Loophole Used by Chinese Rivals. Now Biden Is Closing It.

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    Under pressure from Chinese competitors, Amazon, Walmart and other U.S. retailers have been exploring ways to avoid tariffs. Could a new Biden administration rule change that?Major American retailers including Amazon and Walmart have been quietly exploring shifting toward a business model that would ship more goods directly to consumers from Chinese factories and require fewer U.S. workers in retail stores and logistics centers.The plans have been driven by the rocketing popularity of Chinese e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu, which have won over consumers with their low prices. These platforms ship inexpensive products directly to consumers’ doorsteps, allowing them to bypass American tariffs on Chinese goods, along with the hefty costs associated with brick-and-mortar stores, warehousing and distribution networks.Rising competition from Shein, Temu and other Chinese companies is pushing many major U.S. retailers to consider shifting to a similar model to qualify for an obscure, century-old U.S. trade law, according to several people familiar with the plans. The law, known as de minimis, allows importers to bypass U.S. taxes and tariffs on goods as long as shipments do not exceed $800 in value.But that trend toward changing business models may have been disrupted on Friday, when the Biden administration abruptly moved to close off de minimis eligibility for many Chinese imports, including most clothing items. In an announcement Friday morning, the Biden administration said it would clamp down on the number of packages that come into the country duty-free using de minimis shipping, particularly from China.The Biden administration’s changes will not go into effect immediately. The proposal will be subject to comment by industry before being finalized in the coming months, and some imports from China would still qualify for a de minimis exemption.But Friday’s action may head off a change that has been looming in global retail. Amazon has been preparing a new discount service that would ship products directly to consumers, allowing those goods to bypass tariffs, according to people familiar with the plans. Even companies that preferred to keep their business models as-is — like Walmart — have been forced to consider using more de minimis to compete.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    To Avoid an Economic Recession, Consumer Spending Is Key

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    It has powered the economic recovery from the pandemic shock. Now wallets are thinner, and some businesses are feeling the difference.The economy’s resurgence from the pandemic shock has had a singular driving force: the consumer. Flush with savings and buoyed by a sizzling labor market, Americans have spent exuberantly, on goods such as furniture and electronics and then on services including air travel and restaurant meals.How long this spending will hold up has become a crucial question.Despite contortions in world markets, many economists are cautioning that there is no reason to panic — at least not yet. In July, there was a notable slowdown in hiring and a jump in the unemployment rate to its highest level since October 2021, but consumer spending has remained relatively robust. Wages are rising, though at a slower rate, and job cuts are still low.“Overall, there isn’t evidence of a retrenchment in consumer spending,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon. The strength of spending helped power greater-than-expected economic growth in the spring.That could change if the labor market’s slowdown accelerates.Already, some consumers, especially those with lower incomes, are feeling the dual pinch of higher prices and elevated interest rates that are weighing on their finances. Credit card delinquencies are rising, and household debt has swelled. Pandemic-era savings have dwindled. In June, Americans saved just 3.4 percent of their after-tax income, compared with 4.8 percent a year earlier.On calls with investors and in boardrooms around the country, corporate executives are acknowledging that customers are no longer spending as freely as they used to. And they are bracing themselves for the slide to continue.“We are seeing cautious consumers,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s chief financial officer, said on a call with reporters last week. “They’re looking for deals.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Montana Has More Cows Than People. Why Are Locals Eating Beef From Brazil?

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    Cole Mannix, of Old Salt Co-op, is trying to change local appetites and upend an industry controlled by multibillion-dollar meatpackers.“Making It Work” is a series is about small-business owners striving to endure hard times.While many people can conjure up romantic visions of a Montana ranch — vast valleys, cold streams, snow-capped mountains — few understand what happens when the cattle leave those pastures. Most of them, it turns out, don’t stay in Montana.Even here, in a state with nearly twice as many cows as people, only around 1 percent of the beef purchased by Montana households is raised and processed locally, according to estimates from Highland Economics, a consulting firm. As is true in the rest of the country, many Montanans instead eat beef from as far away as Brazil. Here’s a common fate of a cow that starts out on Montana grass: It will be bought by one of the four dominant meatpackers — JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill and Marfrig — which process 85 percent of the country’s beef; transported by a company like Sysco or US Foods, distributors with a combined value of over $50 billion; and sold at a Walmart or Costco, which together take in roughly half of America’s food dollars. Any ranchers who want to break out from this system — and, say, sell their beef locally, instead of as anonymous commodities crisscrossing the country — are Davids in a swarm of Goliaths.“The beef packers have a lot of control,” said Neva Hassanein, a University of Montana professor who studies sustainable food systems. “They tend to influence a tremendous amount throughout the supply chain.” For the nation’s ranchers, whose profits have shrunk over time, she said, “It’s kind of a trap.” Cole Mannix is trying to escape that trap.Mr. Mannix, 40, has a tendency to wax philosophical. (He once thought about becoming a Jesuit priest.) Like members of his family have since 1882, he grew up ranching: baling hay, helping to birth calves, guiding cattle into the high country on horseback. He wants to make sure the next generation, the sixth, has the same opportunity.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Walmart Opens the Year With Stronger Sales and Profit

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    The NewsWalmart, the largest retailer in the United States, on Thursday reported higher sales and profit in the first quarter, giving insight into how consumer spending is weathering the high-interest-rate environment.Walmart has performed better than retailers dependent on apparel sales, in part because it sells essential goods like groceries.Cj Gunther/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Numbers: Sales grew in stores and especially online.Walmart said its comparable-store sales in its U.S. business rose 3.8 percent from the quarter a year earlier. Its global e-commerce business jumped 21 percent. Walmart has performed better than retailers dependent on apparel sales, in part because it also sells essential goods like groceries. Consumers are continuing to find places to cut back on their purchasing.Transactions were up 3.8 percent, while the average ticket price showed with each visit people were spending about the same as they did this time last year. The retailer said consumers from “upper-income households” helped it gain market share, reiterating a trend it has noted since Americans started navigating high inflation a couple of years ago.Walmart’s quarterly profit, of $5.1 billion, was triple the result a year earlier.The retailer’s stock rose in premarket trading, as investors reacted to last quarter’s results and the company’s upgraded forecast for growth this year.What They’re Saying: Smooth sailing on a choppy sea.“In a sea of challenged and volatile and confusing consumer spending,” said David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, “what’s interesting is how strong and consistent this quarter and many of Walmart’s last few quarters have been.” He said Walmart’s focus as a value-oriented retailer had been a strength during this period.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Walmart Introduces a New Store Brand for ‘Quality Food’

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    The Better Goods store brand will carry plant-based, gluten-free and higher-end food and could help the retailer attract more affluent shoppers.When prices for grocery staples surged in 2021 and 2022, some Americans who had not regularly shopped at Walmart increasingly turned to the retailer, which is known for its affordable prices. Now, the company is trying to keep those new customers and attract others with a new selection of plant-based, gluten-free and deluxe culinary fare.On Tuesday, the retailer unveiled a new store brand that it said would make “quality food accessible.” Executives described the brand, Better Goods, as its largest foray into the private-label food business in 20 years.Better Goods items will include oat-milk frozen desserts, plant-based macaroni and cheese, and frozen appetizers like chicken curry empanadas and Brie Phyllo Blossoms. More than 70 percent of the products will cost less than $5, the retailer said.“All of our research tells us that the customer expects these types of goods,” said Scott Morris, a senior vice president of private food and consumables brands at Walmart. “They expect to have these elevated ingredients and offerings that we provide, and they are also looking for those healthier options.”The retailer says it is seeing growth in its store brands across all demographics, particularly shoppers from Generation Z, a group that includes people born in the late 1990s and early 2000s.Analysts are eager to find out if, as inflation eases, the retailer can retain higher-income individuals who started shopping at Walmart in the last few years. The company is taking a number of steps to make itself more attractive to customers. Walmart has said it plans to open new stores and to remodel existing ones. It has also changed signs, displays and other visual merchandising in ways that analysts say should make stores more appealing to affluent shoppers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Consumers Hate ‘Price Discrimination,’ but They Sure Love a Discount

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    The Wendy’s debacle is a warning shot for brands: If you want to play with prices, make sure to communicate why and whom it could help.It’s been a strange and maddening couple of years for consumers, with prices of essential goods soaring and then sinking, turning household budgets upside down.Listen to this article with reporter commentaryOpen this article in the New York Times Audio app on iOS.Perhaps that’s why, in late February, the internet revolted over Wendy’s plan to test changing its menu prices across the day. If the Breakfast Baconator winds up costing $6.99 at 7 a.m. and $7.99 three hours later, what in life can you really count on anymore?The company later issued a statement saying it would not raise prices during busy parts of the day, but rather add discounts during slower hours. Nevertheless, the episode won’t stop the continued spread of so-called dynamic pricing, which describes an approach of setting prices in response to shifting patterns of demand and supply. It might not even stop the growth of “personalized pricing,” which targets individuals based on their personal willingness to pay.And in many circumstances, customers may come around — if they feel companies are being forthright about how they’re changing prices and what information they’re using to do it.“There’s a need for some transparency, and it has to make sense to consumers,” said Craig Zawada, a pricing expert with PROS, a consultancy that helped pioneer dynamic pricing by airlines in the 1980s and now works across dozens of other industries. “In general, from a buyer standpoint, there has to be this perception of fairness.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Will A.I. Boost Productivity? Companies Sure Hope So.

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    Wendy’s menu boards. Ben & Jerry’s grocery store freezers. Abercrombie & Fitch’s marketing. Many mainstays of the American customer experience are increasingly powered by artificial intelligence.The question is whether the technology will actually make companies more efficient.Rapid productivity improvement is the dream for both companies and economic policymakers. If output per hour holds steady, firms must either sacrifice profits or raise prices to pay for wage increases or investment projects. But when firms figure out how to produce more per working hour, it means that they can maintain or expand profits even as they pay or invest more. Economies experiencing productivity booms can experience rapid wage gains and quick growth without as much risk of rapid inflation.But many economists and officials seem dubious that A.I. — especially generative A.I., which is still in its infancy — has spread enough to show up in productivity data already.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, recently suggested that A.I. “may” have the potential to increase productivity growth, “but probably not in the short run.” John C. Williams, president of the New York Fed, has made similar remarks, specifically citing the work of the Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon.Mr. Gordon has argued that new technologies in recent years, while important, have probably not been transformative enough to give a lasting lift to productivity growth.“The enthusiasm about large language models and ChatGPT has gone a bit overboard,” he said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Walmart to Add 150 U.S. Stores in Five-Year Expansion Drive

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    The retail giant, which last opened a domestic location in 2021, said most of the stores would be newly built.Walmart will add 150 stores in the United States over the next five years, a major expansion drive for the retail giant.The company said the move, which it announced in a statement on Wednesday, would involve millions of dollars in investment. Walmart employs roughly 1.6 million people in the United States, and said it hires hundreds of people each time it opens a new store.Walmart had just over 4,600 stores nationwide at the end of October, down from more than 4,700 a year earlier. The company has not opened a new U.S. store since late 2021.Most of the stores that Walmart plans to open will be newly built, while others will be conversions of existing locations to new formats. The first two new stores will open in the spring, in Florida and Georgia, and the company is completing construction plans for 12 other stores this year. It also said it would remodel 650 locations.Walmart announced this week that it was raising salaries and benefits for store managers and offering them stock grants.The company reported sharply higher profit in the first three quarters of 2023, and its share price is hovering near a record high. It has yet to report earnings for its most recent quarter, which included the holiday season.Consumer spending, which powers the U.S. economy, has been resilient even though shoppers have been squeezed by high inflation and rising interest rates. Credit card data from the holiday season showed retail sales increased from a year earlier.“This is a huge vote of confidence in the American consumer,” Craig Johnson, the founder of the retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners, said of Walmart’s announcement.Mr. Johnson said investors might be concerned over how this could affect Walmart’s Sam’s Club stores, which have increasingly moved from a destination for business owners to stock up on supplies to a place where individuals shop for groceries.Walmart’s choice to open new stores and remodel some existing ones reflects the company’s focus on enhancing its in-store and pickup experiences even as e-commerce has gained popularity, said Edward Yruma, an analyst at the investment bank Piper Sandler.“As we settle into the new normal, what we’ve come to is that the consumer likes great, physical retail locations,” he said.Jordyn Holman More