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    U.S. Faces ‘Elevated Risk’ of Default in Early June, a New Report Warns

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    The Bipartisan Policy Center said the government would be operating on “dangerously low” cash reserves after Memorial Day in its estimate of the so-called X-date.The United States faces an “elevated risk” of running out of cash to pay its bills between June 2 and 13 if Congress does not raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit, according to an analysis released on Tuesday by the Bipartisan Policy Center, an influential think tank that carefully tracks federal spending.The analysis underscores the growing possibility that the United States will default on its debt as soon as next week. It comes amid negotiations between the White House and Republicans in Congress to reach an agreement that would also lift the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap.“Come early June, Treasury will be skating on very thin ice that will only get thinner with each passing day,” said Shai Akabas, the center’s director of economic policy. “Of course, the problem with skating on thin ice is that sometimes you fall through.”The center said that the Treasury Department would be operating on “dangerously low” cash reserves after Memorial Day and that each day in June would come with increasing risk. The department has been using accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to delay a default since the United States technically hit the debt limit in January, but those are expected to be exhausted soon.The center noted that the federal government could get a reprieve if it mustered sufficient revenue to make it to June 15, when quarterly tax payments are due. That could push a default, the so-called X-date, into July.However, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said this week that she thought it was unlikely that the federal government would have enough cash on hand to make it to mid-June.In a letter to Congress on Monday, Ms. Yellen reiterated her estimate that the X-date could arrive as soon as June 1. Her warning did not come with the caveats included in her previous updates, which had suggested that the government’s cash reserves could potentially last for a few additional weeks. Instead, she emphasized the urgency of the situation.“If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” Ms. Yellen said.As the X-date approaches, the Treasury Department has been checking with federal agencies about the timing of upcoming expenditures. Treasury recently sent a memo to agencies to inquire if any scheduled payments could be delayed. The Washington Post reported earlier on the memo.The communication is similar to what the Treasury Department conveyed during the 2021 debt limit standoff and is part of how it manages its cash reserves.“To produce an accurate forecast around the debt limit, it’s critical that Treasury have updated information on the magnitude and timing of agency payments,” Lily Adams, a Treasury spokeswoman, said. “As in prior debt limit episodes, Treasury will continue to regularly communicate with all aspects of the federal government on their planned expenditures.” More

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    Yellen Warns the U.S. Could Default as Soon as June 1

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    Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen reiterated on Monday that the United States could be unable to pay its bills as soon as June 1, an announcement that maintains pressure on the White House and congressional leaders as they negotiate how to raise the nation’s debt limit.The warning to Congress comes as President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to meet on Monday afternoon at the White House to try and resolve the impasse. Representatives for Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy have been engaged in talks over the past week to devise a plan that would cap federal spending and reduce the deficit while raising the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap.Ms. Yellen warned that the nation’s finances remain in a precarious state, saying that it was “highly likely” the United States would run out of cash by early June, rather than her previous letters, which called that time-frame “likely.”“With an additional week of information now available, I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1,” Ms. Yellen wrote.In her previous letter, issued a week ago, Ms. Yellen offered the caveat that her estimates could be off because of the unpredictability of incoming government tax revenue. She said that the actual date that Treasury will exhaust the so-called extraordinary measures that she is using to delay a default “could be a number of days or weeks later.”On Monday, Ms. Yellen did not suggest that there might be more time and she warned that failing to lift the debt limit would be disastrous for the economy.“If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” Ms. Yellen said.The nation’s cash balance has been running perilously low. On Sunday, Ms. Yellen dismissed hopes that the so-called extraordinary measures that she has been using to delay a default would be sufficient to maintain normal government operations beyond mid-June.Republicans have refused to raise the debt limit without spending cuts, forcing Democrats to the negotiating table to avoid a default that could cause a recession and financial crisis. The two sides remain far apart on key issues, including on caps for federal spending, new work requirements for some recipients of federal antipoverty assistance and funding meant to help the Internal Revenue Service crack down on tax evasion by high earners and corporations.The Treasury secretary said over the weekend that a failure to raise the debt limit would force the government to confront difficult choices about how to meet the nation’s financial obligations. Benefits payments to retirees and veterans are likely to be disrupted, and the uncertainty could cause interest rates to surge and stock prices to plunge.The Biden administration has downplayed the idea that it could essentially ignore the debt limit and continue borrowing by invoking the 14th Amendment, which says that the validity of U.S. debt shall not be questioned. Although the administration’s lawyers have studied the idea, officials believe that the expected legal challenges and uncertainty would destabilize markets.“There can be no acceptable outcomes if the debt ceiling isn’t raised,” Ms. Yellen said on “Meet the Press” on NBC. More

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    In a Sharp Reversal, Biden Opens a Path for Ukraine to Get Fighter Jets

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    The president told allied leaders that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16s, and is prepared to approve other countries’ transferring the jets to Ukraine.President Biden told U.S. allies on Friday that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16 fighter jets, several U.S. officials said, adding that the president is prepared to let other countries give F-16s to Ukraine — a major upgrade of the Ukrainian military and a sharp reversal.Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago, officials in Kyiv have pleaded for advanced warplanes to overcome Russian air superiority. But Mr. Biden has resisted, concerned that the jets could be used to hit targets deep inside Russia, and prompt the Kremlin to escalate the conflict. Pentagon officials have said that other weapons, especially air defenses, were needed more urgently, and the high cost of the F-16s could squeeze out other matériel.But several European countries that belong to the NATO alliance and have F-16s in their arsenals have called for an international effort to provide the training and transfer of their jets to Ukraine. Doing so would require American permission, because the weapons were first sold to them by the United States. Though not the most advanced U.S. fighter, the F-16 carries powerful radar that can spot targets from hundreds of miles away and modern missiles and other technology that American officials do not want duplicated or falling into hostile hands.Mr. Biden told other leaders of the Group of 7 nations, the world’s wealthiest democracies, of his decision on pilot training, opening a path to supplying Ukraine with fighter jets, at their summit meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, according to several officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive deliberations.They said the United States and its allies would discuss in the coming months how to supply Kyiv with the jets themselves, and one senior administration official said the White House was prepared to approve that step. The United States is not expected, at least under current plans, to send its own F-16s.A group of F-16s flying over Washington, in March. Ukraine has said it needs the jets to compete effectively with Russia’s air force.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“I welcome the historic decision of the United States and @POTUS to support an international fighter jet coalition. This will greatly enhance our army in the sky,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who is expected to address the Group of 7 this weekend, wrote on Twitter.In a joint statement, the allied leaders said they were committed “to continuing our security assistance to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s aggression, tailoring our support to Ukraine’s needs.” The group vowed to provide “financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support Ukraine requires for as long as it takes.”Earlier on Friday, Mr. Zelensky had addressed an Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he challenged the neutral stance many Arab countries have adopted on the war and implored them to help save Ukrainians “from the cages of Russian prisons.” “Unfortunately there are some in the world, and here among you, who turn a blind eye to those cages and illegal annexations,” he said. “I am here so that everyone can take an honest look, no matter how hard the Russians try to influence.”Western officials said Mr. Zelensky planned to travel to Hiroshima this weekend to attend the summit meeting. Ukrainian officials gave conflicting accounts, however, with some saying he would appear in person and others saying he would speak to the leaders by video link. The vagueness appears to reflect security concerns as Mr. Zelensky moves across the globe seeking aid and arms; he was in several European countries last week, as well as Saudi Arabia on Friday.Ukraine is expected to launch a major counteroffensive soon, hoping to retake more territory seized by Russia in the war’s early days. Any delivery of fighter jets would be months away, too late to affect that plan.The Group of 7 leaders in Hiroshima spent much of the day discussing the coming counteroffensive and its chances of forcing Russia to the negotiating table to discuss some form of an armistice that would stop the fighting, even if it did not resolve the central issues of the war.They are also poised to unveil a slew of new sanctions and export controls to clamp down further on the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war, and to crack down on third-party nations that have been secretly providing Russia with banned technologies that can be used in weapons systems.Earlier on Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine told a gathering of the Arab League not to “turn a blind eye” to the atrocities committed by the Russian forces.Saudi Press Agency/EPA, via ShutterstockThe allies appear determined to demonstrate unified resolve to support Ukraine at a time when President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia seems to be betting that their interest and commitment will wane.Mr. Biden’s changed stance on F-16s is his latest about-face on allowing Ukraine to field advanced weapons, including HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot air defense missile systems and Abrams tanks. In each case, the president at first refused, only to change his mind under pressure from European allies.Top Pentagon officials have consistently said that they do not believe Ukraine needs F-16s at this stage of the conflict.Celeste A. Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee last month that advanced Western fighter aircraft ranked only “about eighth” on Ukraine’s priority list. She said officials have focused on resources with the “highest priority capabilities, and that has been air defense, artillery and armor.”But the push for F-16s by Ukraine and its supporters in Congress was reinforced this week when Yahoo News reported that an internal U.S. Air Force assessment concluded it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate the fighters, a far shorter time frame than Pentagon officials had cited previously.The document, which a senior Air Force official confirmed and said was shared with several NATO allies who fly F-16s, contained a detailed assessment undertaken in late February and early March at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Ariz. Two Ukrainian pilots were given “no formal training” on the F-16, according to the assessment, other than a brief familiarization, and then were tested on a flight simulator for several hours.A Ukrainian soldier passes a crater caused by Russian bombardment in the village of Heorhiivka in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv says F-16s would greatly increase their forces’ ability to defend against aerial attacks.Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York TimesAn appearance by Mr. Zelensky at the Group of 7 would be a strong rebuff to Mr. Putin and a reminder of how thoroughly relations with Russia have deteriorated. Thirty years ago, President Clinton met with Boris Yeltsin, then the president of Russia, in Japan to begin to map the integration of a post-Soviet Russia into the world economy, as Mr. Clinton promised to seek the repeal of Cold War sanctions. Five years later, Russia joined what became the Group of 8.Now all that has been reversed. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it was suspended from the group, and left it entirely three years later. Russia’s economy is struggling under sanctions imposed since the invasion last year, particularly the price cap on its oil sales, and more are coming.Britain on Friday said it was implementing a ban on Russian diamonds, copper, aluminum and nickel. Australia also said on Friday it was imposing new financial sanctions targeting 21 entities and three individuals, including Russia’s largest gold company, petroleum and steel companies and defense entities.The United States also rolled out a “substantial package” of restrictions, including cutting off 70 more firms from American exports and adding more than 200 individuals and entities to its sanctions list. The measures are meant to crack down on people or companies that are helping Moscow to evade existing sanctions.The fresh round of penalties “will further tighten the vise on Putin’s ability to wage his barbaric invasion and will advance our global efforts to cut off Russian attempts to evade sanctions,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said in a statement on Friday.Until now, the Ukraine war has seemed far away from daily life in Moscow, but Russian leaders are growing increasingly nervous about the repercussions of a promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.Natalia Kolesnikova/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe United States will broaden sanctions to cover more corners of the Russian economy, striking at its avenues to acquire semiconductors and other high-tech goods from Group of 7 nations, which American officials said Friday are critical to Russia’s ability to build weapons. Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, said in a release that the new sanctions would take aim at components Russia needs to build a drone that is currently being deployed in Ukraine.The new penalties also seek to squeeze Russia’s ability to drill for oil and gas, and to crimp venture capitalists and financial services firms that American officials said were aiding sanctioned Russian businesses.Goods that Western businesses are now prohibited from selling to Russian buyers often reach them through middlemen — changing hands, legal jurisdictions and free-trade zones multiple times. The trade is hard to track and harder to enforce, especially for “dual use” goods that have both civilian and military applications.With many of Russia’s other revenue streams squeezed by previous rounds of sanctions, officials have homed in on diamonds as a lucrative trade still providing Moscow with funding for its war. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of small diamonds, exporting more than $4.5 billion in 2021, making the gem its top non-energy export by value. More

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    When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.

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    The federal government is essentially living paycheck to paycheck, making the X-date hard to pin down.In letters to Congress and warnings to business leaders about the catastrophic consequences if the United States defaults on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has repeatedly offered an important caveat.She cannot give the exact date when the federal government will run out of cash.The United States reached its statutory $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, forcing the Treasury Department — which borrows huge sums of money to pay nation’s bills — to begin using accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to conserve cash and avoid breaching the cap.On Monday, Ms. Yellen reiterated previous warnings that the Treasury Department could deplete its cash reserves by June 1. Still, the exact day when the United States will reach the so-called X-date is nearly impossible to determine.“These estimates are based on currently available data, and federal receipts, outlays and debt could vary from these estimates,” Ms. Yellen has told lawmakers in her letters. “The actual date Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of days or weeks later than these estimates.”While Treasury has the most sophisticated cash management system in the world and employs teams of highly trained economists, its coffers are a blur of payments going out and tax revenues coming in. When its cash balance runs painfully low — as was the case on Wednesday, when the Treasury General Account started the day with less than $100 billion — pinpointing the X-date becomes even harder to predict. In many respects, that is because the moment that a default would occur is a moving target.Big bills are coming due.Ms. Yellen has been eyeing early June as a pivotal month since her first warnings to Congress about the debt limit in January. The reason: The federal government spends a lot of money in a short period of time around June 1, and it is impossible to predict exactly how much revenue is going to be coming in and when.In a report published on Thursday, the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank that carefully tracks federal spending, estimated that the government would spend $101 billion on June 1. Most of that money — $47 billion — will go toward Medicare, while the rest will be directed to veterans’ benefits, military pay and retirement, civil service retirement and supplemental security income. On June 2, the government has to pay $25 billion in Social Security benefits and another $2 billion for Medicaid.During those two days, the government is projected to spend about $140 billion and bring in only $44 billion in tax revenue, leaving the nation’s coffers operating on fumes.Revenues sputter as refunds flow.One big problem this year is that tax revenues have been coming in at a more tepid pace than anticipated.Severe storms, flooding and mudslides in California, Alabama and Georgia this year prompted the Internal Revenue Service to push the April 18 tax-filing deadlines in dozens of counties to October.Another surprising reason that cash is running lower than some budget experts projected is that the I.R.S. is starting to operate more efficiently. As a result of the $80 billion that the agency received as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, it has been able to ramp up hiring and chip away at the backlog of unprocessed tax returns.Because the I.R.S. has been processing returns more quickly, it is also paying out refunds more quickly and draining the amount of available cash.June 15 is a critical day.If Ms. Yellen can find enough coins in Treasury’s couch to pay the bills until June 15, the United States could find itself with a bit of breathing room.That is because June 15 is when third-quarter payments are due from corporations and people who are required to pay their tax bills throughout the year or choose to make payments every three months to avoid having large bills due in April.The Congressional Budget Office said in a report last week that an expected influx of quarterly tax receipts on June 15 and the availability of additional extraordinary measures would probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July.The government could receive approximately $80 billion in tax revenue that day. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that those funds could be sufficient to keep the federal government afloat until June 30. At that time, Ms. Yellen would also have some additional extraordinary measures at her disposal — a suspension of investments into retirement funds for federal workers — that would allow her to unlock an additional $145 billion and potentially delay a default until well into July.It’s too close to call.The lack of clarity about the X-date has made it difficult for lawmakers to know how much pressure they are under to strike a deal. The government may not know how quickly cash is running out until right before the country faces default.But pressure is still mounting. Congress is likely to take days — if not weeks — to pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling. And even if President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy strike an agreement, there is no guarantee that the House and Senate will easily pass the legislation.The legislative calendar gets increasingly complicated as summer approaches.Mr. McCarthy and Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, would need to navigate legislation reflecting that agreement through their respective chambers, and the days left to do so are rapidly dwindling. The House is scheduled to be in session for only six days before the end of the month. The Senate is set for just five and is scheduled to be out of Washington beginning on Monday before the Memorial Day weekend.Mindful that lawmakers are loathe to reschedule their recesses, analysts have been watching the legislative schedule closely as they try to read the debt limit tea leaves. If no deal is signed into law by Memorial Day and Ms. Yellen does not announce that the X-date is delayed, that could raise the likelihood of a short-term suspension of the borrowing cap to give Congress more time to act.“The congressional calendar is king and will dictate urgency and passage dates for a bill, as has historically been the case,” Henrietta Treyz, the director of economic policy at Veda Partners, said in a note to clients this month. More

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    Yellen Calls Invoking 14th Amendment to Raise Debt Limit ‘Legally Questionable’

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    The Treasury secretary warned that a default would lead to a “very substantial downturn.”Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen on Thursday downplayed the possibility that President Biden could essentially ignore the debt limit by invoking the 14th Amendment, calling the idea “legally questionable.”Her comments come as lawmakers and the Biden administration remain locked in a standoff over whether and how to raise the debt ceiling, which caps how much money the federal government can borrow. Ms. Yellen warned lawmakers last week that the United States could run out of money to pay its bills on time by June 1.Mr. Biden is scheduled to meet with top congressional leaders again on Friday, after an initial meeting on Tuesday failed to elicit an agreement.The brinkmanship has raised questions about whether the Biden administration can act on its own to raise the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap by relying on a clause in the 14th Amendment stating that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”The strategy would effectively be a constitutional challenge to the debt limit. Under the theory, the government would be required by the 14th Amendment to continue issuing new debt to pay bondholders, Social Security recipients, government employees and others, even if Congress fails to lift the limit before the so-called X-date.Ms. Yellen, however, continued to dismiss that notion.“There would clearly be litigation around that; it’s not a short-run solution,” Ms. Yellen said at a news conference in Japan before a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 7 nations. “It’s legally questionable whether or not that’s a viable strategy.”Biden administration officials have studied the idea, but the president also voiced similar skepticism this week after meeting with Speaker Kevin McCarthy and predicted that unilateral action to raise the debt limit without Congress would spur litigation.As she prepared to meet with her international counterparts, Ms. Yellen warned that failing to lift the debt limit would have dire consequences for the United States and the world economy. She noted the significant uncertainty associated with a default but predicted that a sharp decline in government spending combined with the expected turmoil in financial markets would lead to a “very substantial downturn.”“A default would threaten the gains that we’ve worked so hard to make over the past few years in our pandemic recovery,” Ms. Yellen said. “And it would spark a global downturn that would set us back much further.”She added: “It would also risk undermining U.S. global economic leadership and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests.” More

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    ‘There Are No Good Options’: The U.S. Is Running Out of Money

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    Treasury is running out of cash, leaving little time to resolve a debt ceiling standoff that could result in default.President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet on Tuesday afternoon to discuss budget priorities and raising the debt limit at a precarious moment: The United States is quickly running out of cash to pay its bills.Lawmakers have less than a month to pass legislation to increase or suspend the debt ceiling, which caps the amount of money the government can borrow. The United States reached its statutory $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, and the Treasury Department estimates that the accounting maneuvers it has been employing to prop up its cash reserves could be exhausted as soon as June 1.If the debt ceiling is not raised before the government runs out of cash — what is known as the X-date — it could be unable to pay all its bills on time, including military salaries, payments to bondholders and Social Security checks. Barring a solution, millions of Americans could stop receiving government benefits, stock markets could plunge, and a constitutional crisis could ensue.The Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank that tracks the nation’s cash reserves, warned on Tuesday that the X-date was likely to be between early June and early August. It said that economic risks would start to surge before the money ran out and that meeting the nation’s financial obligations would soon become increasingly difficult.“The coming weeks are critical for assessing the strength of government cash flows,” said Shai Akabas, the director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “If a solution is not reached before June, policymakers may be playing daily Russian roulette with the full faith and credit of the United States, risking financial disaster for their constituents and the country.”A default could come sooner than expected because tax revenues have been trickling into the government’s coffers this spring. The sluggish pace is due in part to a decision by the Internal Revenue Service to give taxpayers in states that were affected by severe weather more time to file their 2022 taxes.The brinkmanship has renewed questions about how the federal government might try to prioritize certain payments if it does run out of cash, whether Mr. Biden could ignore the debt limit entirely and order the Treasury Department to continue borrowing, and if far-fetched ideas such as minting a $1 trillion coin could in fact be viable.Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Monday that if the debt limit was not raised, then Mr. Biden would have to decide how to proceed.“I would say that if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, the president will have to make some decisions about what to do with the resources that we do have,” Ms. Yellen said on CNBC. “And there are a variety of different options, but there are no good options.”She added that failing to raise or suspend the debt limit would be an “economic catastrophe” and assailed Republicans for holding the economy hostage.“It’s a gun to the head of the American people and the American economy,” Ms. Yellen said.Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy will be joined by Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader. Ms. Yellen is traveling to Japan on Tuesday for a gathering of finance ministers of the Group of 7 nations and will not be participating in the meeting at the White House.The Biden administration and lawmakers are under growing pressure from business groups to find a way to avoid a default.“A default would deliver a severe blow to the economy, leading to widespread job losses, decimated retirement savings and higher borrowing costs for families, businesses and the government,” said Joshua Bolten, the chief executive of the Business Roundtable. “Failing to raise the debt limit would also threaten the U.S. dollar’s central role in the global financial system to the benefit of China.”He added: “Securing a bipartisan path forward to raise the debt ceiling could not be more urgent.” More

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    Everything You Need to Know About the Debt Ceiling

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    Congress controls how much money the United States can borrow. Here’s a look at why that is and what it means.Washington is heading for another big fight over whether to raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit, which caps the amount of money the federal government can borrow to pay its bills.This year is shaping up to be the messiest fight in at least a decade. Republicans are demanding that an increase in the borrowing limit be accompanied by spending cuts and other cost savings. President Biden has said he will oppose any attempt to tie spending cuts to raising the debt ceiling, increasing the likelihood of a protracted standoff.The president is set to meet with Republican and Democratic leaders at the White House on May 9 to discuss a path forward. But it is still unclear how quickly lawmakers will act to raise the nation’s borrowing cap.Here is what you need to know about the debt limit and what happens if no deal can be reached:What is the debt limit?The debt limit is a cap on the total amount of money that the United States is authorized to borrow to fund the government and meet its financial obligations.Because the federal government runs budget deficits — meaning it spends more than it brings in through taxes and other revenue — it must borrow huge sums of money to pay its bills. Those obligations include funding for social safety net programs, interest on the national debt and salaries for members of the armed forces.Approaching the debt ceiling often elicits calls by lawmakers to cut back on government spending. But lifting the debt limit does not actually authorize any new spending — in fact, it simply allows the United States to spend money on programs that have already been authorized by Congress.When was the debt limit reached?The United States officially hit its debt limit on Jan. 19, prompting the Treasury Department to use accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to continue paying the government’s obligations and avoid a default. Those measures temporarily curb certain government investments so that the bills can continue to be paid.The ability to use those measures to delay a default could be exhausted by June. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen on Monday warned lawmakers that the United States could run out of cash by June 1 if the borrowing cap isn’t raised or suspended.How much debt does the United States have?The national debt crossed $31 trillion for the first time last year. The borrowing cap is set at $31.381 trillion.Why does the United States have a debt limit?According to the Constitution, Congress must authorize government borrowing. In the early 20th century, the debt limit was instituted so that the Treasury would not need to ask Congress for permission each time it had to issue debt to pay bills.During World War I, Congress passed the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 to give the Treasury more flexibility to issue debt and manage federal finances. The debt limit started to take its current shape in 1939, when Congress consolidated different limits that had been set on different types of bonds into a single borrowing cap. At the time, the limit was set to $45 billion.While the debt limit was created to make government run more smoothly, many policymakers believe that it has become more trouble than it’s worth. In 2021, Ms. Yellen said she supported abolishing the debt limit.What happens if the debt limit is not raised or suspended?If the government exhausts its extraordinary measures and runs out of cash, it would be unable to issue new debt. That means it would not have enough money to pay its bills, including interest and other payments it owes to bondholders, military salaries and benefits to retirees.No one knows exactly what would happen if the United States gets to that point, but the government could default on its debt if it is unable to make required payments to its bondholders. Economists and Wall Street analysts warn that such a scenario would be economically devastating, and could plunge the entire world into a financial crisis.Will military salaries, Social Security benefits and bondholders be paid?Various ideas have been raised to ensure that critical payments are not missed — particularly payments to the investors who hold U.S. debt. But none of these ideas have ever been tried, and it remains unclear whether the government could actually continue paying any of its bills if it can’t borrow more money.One idea that has been proposed is that the Treasury Department would prioritize certain payments to avoid defaulting on U.S. debt. In that case, the Treasury would first pay the bondholders who own U.S. Treasury debt, even if it delayed other financial obligations like government salaries or retirement benefits.So far, the Treasury seems to have ruled that out as an option. Ms. Yellen has said that such an approach would not avoid a debt “default” in the eyes of markets.“Treasury systems have all been built to pay all of our bills when they’re due and on time, and not to prioritize one form of spending over another,” Ms. Yellen told reporters earlier this year. More

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    Debt Ceiling: U.S. Could Run Out of Cash by June 1, Yellen Warns

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    President Biden said he would meet with lawmakers on May 9 to discuss ways to avoid a default.WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Monday that the United States could run out of money to pay its bills by June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit, putting pressure on President Biden and lawmakers to reach a swift agreement to avoid defaulting on the nation’s debt.The more precise warning over when the United States could hit the so-called X-date dramatically reduces the projected amount of time lawmakers have to reach a deal before the government runs out of money to pay all of its bills on time.The new timeline could accelerate negotiations between the House, Senate and Mr. Biden over government spending — a high-stakes standoff between the president and the House Republicans who have refused to raise the limit without deep spending cuts attached.In response to Ms. Yellen’s new timeline, Mr. Biden on Monday called the top four leaders in Congress to ask for a meeting on May 9 to discuss fiscal issues. The president reached out to Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, along with Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader.Economists have warned that failure to raise the debt limit, which caps the total amount of money the United States can borrow, threatens to rock financial markets and throw the global economy into a financial crisis.Because the United States runs a budget deficit — meaning it spends more money than it takes in — it must borrow huge sums of money to pay its bills. In addition to paying Social Security benefits, along with salaries for the military and government workers, the United States is also required to make interest and other payments to the bondholders who own its debt.The Treasury Department had previously projected that it could run out of cash sometime in early June, but the new estimate raises the alarming prospect that the United States could be unable to make some payments, including to bondholders, in a matter of weeks.“Given the current projections, it is imperative that Congress act as soon as possible to increase or suspend the debt limit in a way that provides longer-term certainty that the government will continue to make its payments,” Ms. Yellen said in a letter to Congress.The Congressional Budget Office also warned on Monday that time was running out more quickly than previously thought. The nonpartisan budget office said tax receipts from income payments that were processed in April were smaller than it had anticipated and that future tax payments were unlikely to have much impact.“That, in combination with less-than-expected receipts through April, means that the Treasury’s extraordinary measures will be exhausted sooner than we previously projected,” Phillip Swagel, the C.B.O. director, wrote in an analysis posted on the agency’s website.White House officials had not expected the date of possible default to arrive so soon, and the accelerated timetable could scramble the president’s approach to the potential crisis.Mr. Biden has continued to insist he will not negotiate directly over the limit, saying Congress must raise the cap without conditions. The newly compressed calendar leaves little time for the president and congressional leaders to find agreement on raising the limit. Mr. McCarthy is traveling in the Middle East this week. Later this month, Mr. Biden is scheduled to attend the Group of 7 nations leaders’ summit in Japan, then travel on to Australia for a summit with the leaders of Japan, India and Australia.House Republicans passed legislation in April that would raise the debt limit in exchange for deep spending cuts and roll back recent climate legislation that Democrats passed along party lines. Mr. Biden has blasted that bill, saying it would hurt working families while benefiting the oil and gas industry, and he has accused Republicans of putting America’s economy on the line.On Monday, the president called on Republicans “to make sure the threat by the Speaker of the House to default on the national debt is off the table.”“For over 200 years, America has never, ever, ever failed to pay its debt. To put in the capital — in colloquial terms, America is not a deadbeat nation. We have never, ever failed to meet the debt,” Mr. Biden said.Republican Senators reacted to the news on Monday by emphasizing the onus was now on Mr. Biden to negotiate to avoid economic calamity.“It is very scary,” Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and a member of Republican leadership said of the looming crisis. “President Biden needs to step it up and get to the table. Kevin McCarthy and the folks in the house, they did their part.”Some expressed optimism that the approaching deadline would force action.“Washington’s at its best when it has a deadline to respond to,” Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, said.Mr. Schumer and Mr. Jeffries urged Republicans to lift the limit immediately with no strings attached. “We do not have the luxury of waiting until June 1 to come together, pass a clean bill to avoid a default and prevent catastrophic consequences for our economy and millions of American families,” the lawmakers wrote in a joint statement on Monday. While there is bipartisan agreement that the nation needs to find a way to reduce the gap between when it spends and what it collects, even the most ardent supporters of fiscal reform say the debt limit must be raised.“We need to raise the debt limit as soon as possible, without drama and without serious risk of default,” said Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “To threaten default or drag one’s feet is the height of irresponsibility. Lawmakers need to commence serious discussions immediately.”The possibility of a default by June 1 could compel lawmakers to agree to a short-term increase or suspension of the debt limit to provide more time for negotiations. But even that temporary salve is far from assured given competing factions within the Republican Party.The United States technically hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit in January, forcing the Treasury Department to employ accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to allow the government to keep paying its bills, including payments to bondholders who own government debt. Ms. Yellen said at the time that her powers to delay a default — in which the United States fails to make its payments on time — could be exhausted by early June. She cautioned, however, that the estimate came with considerable uncertainty.Tax receipts depend on a complicated array of factors such as the jobless rate, wages and whether taxpayers submit their returns on time. On Monday, the Treasury secretary underscored the challenges of predicting the default date, noting that the new estimate was based on currently available data that is inherently variable, such as tax payments from individuals.“The actual date that Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures could be a number of weeks later than these estimates,” Ms. Yellen said.A Treasury Department official said that, as of April 30, the government had a cash balance of about $300 billion. Ms. Yellen’s ability to delay a default will depend in part on how much tax revenue comes into the federal government this spring.Payments for the 2022 tax year are still arriving. Goldman Sachs economists projected last week that by the second week of June, the Treasury Department could have about $60 billion of cash remaining, which would allow the government to keep making its payments until late July.Some budget analysts have suggested that winter storms could complicate the Treasury Department’s ability to delay a default. Severe storms, flooding and mudslides in California, Alabama and Georgia this year prompted the Internal Revenue Service to push the April 18 filing deadline to October for dozens of counties.The I.R.S. also gave those affected areas more time to make contributions to retirement and health savings accounts, potentially affecting their taxable income.Ms. Yellen has already been taking steps to ensure that the federal government has sufficient cash on hand.Earlier this year, she announced that she would redeem some existing investments and suspend new investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund.Ms. Yellen said on Monday that the Treasury Department was suspending the issuance of State and Local Government Series Treasury securities to help manage the risks associated with the debt limit. She lamented that the move would deprive state and local governments of an important tool to manage their finances.Brinkmanship over the debt limit has revived debates over how far the executive branch can go to avoid a default. Ms. Yellen, however, has dismissed the notion that she could prioritize certain payments or mint a platinum coin worth $1 trillion to ensure that the United States remains solvent.Although markets have broadly remained calm about the prospect of a default, there are some signs that investors are becoming nervous.They have sold government bonds that mature in three months — around the time policymakers have said the United States could run out of cash — and snapped up bonds with just one month until they are repaid.The cost of insuring existing bond holdings against the possibility that the United States will default on its debts has also risen sharply. Still, some analysts say the market reaction would need to be much more pronounced to force a fast deal.In a separate report issued by the Treasury Department on Monday about the risks facing the economy, Eric Van Nostrand, the acting assistant secretary for economic policy, laid out the dire consequences of failing to raise the debt limit.“A default by the U.S. government — including the failure to pay any of the United States’ obligations — would be an economic catastrophe, sparking a global downturn of unknown but substantial severity,” Mr. Van Nostrand said.Catie Edmondson More