China’s exports and imports grew far less than expected in September

BEIJING — China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.

Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%. 

Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.

Exports have been a major driver of growth in China’s economy, which in recent years has been weighed down by lackluster consumer spending and a real estate slump.

But heightened trade tensions will make it difficult for China’s exports to keep growing at a strong pace heading into next year, Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note. “The change of fiscal policy stance as indicated by the press conference over the weekend is critical as a pillar for growth next year.”

The U.S. and European Union have increased tariffs on China-made electric cars, among other products.

China’s exports to the U.S., its largest trading partner, rose by 2.2% in September from a year ago, while imports from the U.S. climbed by 6.7%, according to CNBC’s analysis of official data.

“Import volumes fell last month, but they are likely to rebound in the short run as faster fiscal spending drives up demand for industrial commodities,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Monday.

“We think [the finance ministry’s increase in fiscal expenditure will boost construction activity and drive higher demand for industrial commodities, at least for a quarter or two,” Huang said.

China’s Ministry of Finance had hinted at plans to increase the fiscal deficit on Saturday, without elaborating on the scale of such support at the time.

Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis, rose by 5.5%, while imports climbed by 4.2%. China’s exports to the European Union edged 1.3% higher, while imports dropped by 4%.

China’s exports to BRICS partner Russia surged by 16.6%, but imports fell by 8.4%, the analysis showed.

Growth in China’s overall exports of autos slowed to a 25.7% year-on-year increase in September, while those of shoes, toys and smartphones all fell over the same period. Home appliances, integrated circuits and ships were among the categories that posted export growth.

In another sign of soft domestic demand, China’s crude oil imports dropped by 10.7% in U.S. dollar terms in September, compared with the same period of last year, while imports of natural gas and coal both climbed.

The latest data reflected Beijing’s efforts to bolster food supplies and access to rare earths, in order to ensure national security. China’s rare earths trade shrunk further, with exports plunging by more than 40% in September from a year ago, and imports down by around 9%.

Intake of soybeans, a major ingredient in livestock feed, surged by nearly 39%.

The data adds to a depressed picture of the Chinese economy, with the inflation print out Sunday pointing to further weakness in domestic demand.

The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September from a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database. Tourism-related prices fell by 2.1% year-on-year, despite the Mid-Autumn Festival in September and Golden Week holiday that kicked off Oct. 1.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP data on Friday, along with retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for September.

Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements since late last month, while so far falling short on the fiscal policy details many investors have hoped for. Stocks in China have swung wildly as beaten-down markets debate the ultimate impact of Beijing’s economic support.